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I’m guessing they aren’t supposed to have them because of the non proliferation act? But it’s pretty much an open secret.
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In the 1970s the US and Israel basically agreed that if Israel did not "introduce" nuclear weapons into the Middle East — defining "introduce" as declare, threaten, test, or use nuclear weapons — then the US would look the other way with regards to its nonproliferation commitments, which included denying military and nuclear assistance to any nation that was existing outside of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime. This was seen as a decent compromise by both; the fact that it was pretty clear that Israel likely had nuclear weapons seemed to be useful as a deterrent threat, but avoided crossing the line that would produce political difficulties with regards to the US, whom Israel was highly dependent on for military aid. From the US perspective, this also helped to tamp down proliferation pressures in the Middle East as well — if Israel openly declared its nuclear arms, that might encourage other nations (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, etc.) to pursue such weapons. The "taboo" nature of discussing Israel's nuclear status within Israel has also resulted in there being essentially no open discussion of its nuclear program and its aims, which has kept the program politically insulated from the ups and downs of different parties being in power, etc.
Now whether that has worked out as planned and whether or not Israel's policy of "nuclear opacity" (don't confirm, don't deny, but everybody knows) is productive either from a strategic perspective, a political perspective, or a nonproliferation perspective, is something that people can and have debated for a long time now. The US has also shown itself willing to renege on its nonproliferation commitments when it feels there is a greater benefit to doing so (as it has done explicitly with India, and implicitly with Pakistan). And since the Vanunu revelations there really is no question in anybody's mind whether or not Israel has a sophisticated nuclear weapons program — there is no plausible deniability whatsoever anymore, and certainly other nations in the Middle East (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, etc.) have factored Israeli nuclear capabilities into both their own nuclear ambitions and their own strategic ambitions. So whether the political conditions of the 1970s will continue indefinitely is anybody's guess.
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Odd charade given everyone knows they have them
Hi Professor. I was wondering what your opinion is on the rumored Samson Option in Israel? On Wikipedia (🤷♂️) it says that Israel likely threatened the U.S. with nuclear use during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and those threats may have prompted Nixon to change course and intervene more directly in the conflict on Israel’s behalf. Do you have any additional knowledge on this?
I don't think they threatened to use them against the United States. My sense is that they implied things could get very ugly if they were not given some help — which is probably a threat to use them against their enemies, which the US also did not want.
Anyway like all things that originate with Hersh it is a little unclear what the thing is and how real it is. I could believe that Israel would make vague threats that if it was abandoned by the US in the face of a serious attack that it would consider using nukes and use that as leverage to maintain US support. I find less plausible any implications that Israel would either threaten, much less actually target, countries that were not among its historical enemies. It is just not a very credible threat.
Imagine trying to play high stakes poker against someone who you are not even sure is sitting at the table with all the other players.
Why is that tolerated by other countries. When other countries research this stuff they get torn apart by the international community.
When you say “other countries research this stuff”, who are you talking about? Iran? North Korea? Do you not see how those governments having access to this kind of weapon would be far more problematic than other countries having it, including Israel.
I was talking about Iran yeah, and I do agree a nuclear Iran is worse for the world than a nuclear Israel. I just think that if the goal is non proliferation, we probably shouldn’t have a double standard when it comes to our allies.
Why is a nuclear Israel better than a nuclear Iran?
Israel wants to take land from their neighbors and ethnically cleanse those lands . They've been pretty clear in their rhetoric and actions.
Land grabs and ethnic cleansing are bad. They are some of the worst things humans can do. I don't get why a country who is doing those things is viewed as the good guys, with nukes the they've threatened to use on top of this.
Israel has been pretty straight forward since their inception that they want to control lands in historical Israel and implement an ethnic Jewish majority on all if their land and that they're willing to implement ethnic cleansing and demographic engineering to see that Jewish majority come to fruition. That includes land in syria, Palestine, Jordan, and Lebanon.
I'm sorry brother, but as far as I know Iran doesn't want to do ethnic cleansing or want to take land from neighboring countries.
I was raised on a diet of Martin Luther King Jr, Nelson Mandala, & Anti-nazi history. Israel's policies are just so in conflict with my values as an American that I'm genuinely perplexed by how Israel is obvious the ally over Iran.
do you also know what happened to Israel since their inception (and just before)? Especially concerning its arab and persian neighbors...
Again, I think the relationship between Israel and those areas can be complicated, and just saying "ethnic cleansing" or "genocide" (which I know you didn't, and I appreciate), maybe skips a few beats. just as an example, there are, what, about 2 million people living in gaza, with a population slowly climbing...
Iran is a totalitarian, massively corrupt theocracy, with a passion for unimaginable human rights violations, looking to extend its influence FAR beyond its borders: supplying Hamas, Houthis, and countless others.
Like I said, Israel's history, and geopolitical position, massively dictates its actions. For example, without looking at the specific details, I can see how a headline like "Israel bombs a hospital" or "10 billion people march for a ceasefire" or "UN calls Gaza a genocide" would be perplexing.
My morality align FAR more with general western values (I know this is very vague) than with what the governments of Iran, North Korea, and China are pushing.
We're all a bit late in allowing North Korea to possess them, I believe.
The only difference is their friendliness with the USA.
I agree man but I really hope USA stops supporting israel soon with all the blood on their hands how and why does USA ignore it?
A nuclear Israel is worse than a nuclear Iran
Israel has been nuclear for decades and hasn’t used it. Iran has announced it will use it the moment they get their hands on it
Well the Israeli approach 2as not to develop the weapon as a kind of chest beating show of national strength, but as a means to an end. The defence of the nation. Sure, there is a strategic level threat from their forces to all the other nuclear powers, but it is a token compared to all the other members of the club. Israel does not present much of a first strike threat to anyone but it's neighbours without nuclear weapons.
Their weps program was allowed to proceed with tacit approval on this basis. Maybe even support. The position of nuclear ambiguity also conceals the true genisis of the program in terms of it being allowed to exist in the context of the big nuclear powers of the cold war.
Most countries, I’d argue all countries developing nukes are doing so for deterrence. Israel isn’t special in that regard.
Yes, that is correct. However, I would like you to share with me the footage of Israels first successful test.
I always have this idea that if I hate my enemies more than what they hate me then no matter what, if I have the chance of hurting them with any weapon, then I will. And that's what happens with Iran and Israel. I mean, do you really think that Iran will develop nukes and keep them stored?
What choice do these other countries have, apart from smiling politely? The idea is to keep them forever wondering. Looks like it's working very well, too.
No, what's working is that for the last 75 years every time there has been an attack on Israel, the Israelis have been able to decimate their attackers and push the borders back to at least what was occupied previously. Israel's conventional deterrent is plenty enough. Their nuclear program isn't nearly as important now compared to what it meant in the 70s and 80s when the USSR was filling Arab armories with modern jets and tanks and Israel did not yet have a secure benefactor. That didn't really happen until after the Yom Kippur war.
Ironically Israel's nuclear force developed at the same time as it was achieving conventional ascendancy.
Its first nuclear weapon was made ready for service at about the same time as its crushing victory in the Six Day War.
Caught flat-footed Israel had its greatest crisis in the Yom Kippur War but chose to keep its bombs in their bunkers. But that was the last gasp of the serious Arab threat.
Sadat made peace in 1979 and with the largest Arab military power out of the picture the 1979 Assad-USSR treaty and subsequent armament build up in Syria did not represent a serious threat. Israel could handle an attack from Syria alone with ease.
So by 1980 the expanding Israeli nuclear arsenal was already just a backstop for the dominant conventional military in the region.
Isn’t it more about providing a technicality to let the US get around the Symington amendment? I am pretty sure that every nuclear power is aware of Israel’s weapons and probably has a much more detailed understanding of their arsenal than the public
Yes, any examination of Israels WMD program is obvious to to all other nuclear powers, and to most state actors. Israels role in the context of all nuclear powers is unique because of this weird ambiguity. It gives the impression that Israels use of weapons has this odd local implication, even though it almost certainly wouldn't. Almost.
The best nuclear weapons are the ones your friend has
Your friend who steals land and commits ethnic cleansing. Crazy. So insane lmao
Pretty sure we don't have to worry about Hamas anymore, so it should be fine.
he was talking about palestine, are you for real?
What are you going on about? Palestine is where Hamas is.
Womp womp
f people like you
yeah yeah keep crying while we are finishing your bros in gaza
oh and happy israeli independence day!
So you get all the benefits of having them without any of the drawbacks of admitting you have them. Simple as.
Most likely to keep the largely sub-human theocracies bordering them in the black and scared as they should be... Lol
🤫👃
Go fuck yourself, calling people sub-human. You’re a piece of shit. I’m not calling you human because at least humans have empathy, you fucking degenerate.
Anyone who supports a theocratic dictatorship is in fact sub-human, yes. You're a piece of shit as well, with a sprinkle of retardation on top. Kys
Seeing as Israel is the exact description of what you hate, maybe you should rid this world of sad sack peile flesh worth less than that of spec of dust. If you need help getting rid of trash I’m more than happy to give you a list of ways to do that. Kys
Israel is defending themselves against the subhuman aggression (not Palestinians). Anyone who doesn't understand that simply doesn't want to, because it doesn't fit your US Israeli narrative.
Israel deserves the hate they get in the region by their direct neighbors, Palestinians rightfully dislike Israel.
Because then the Iranians would try much harder on their programs provoking an Israeli/US response. Either that or the Russians clandestinely provide warheads and/or technical assistance complicating their Iranian contingency plans to strike the reactors even further.
They're trying to improve ties with the Saudis and if the Israelis admit it talks are going to break down and the Saudis are going to want nukes which the US defenitely isn't going to give them so the Saudis are going to go to the Russians, North Koreans, or somebody else for technical assistance.
The Egyptains and Jordinians (who the Israelis are also trying to improve ties with) are also going to break down their talks with the Israelis and want the same things as the Saudis.
because Israel would gain no benefit by declaring they do have nukes. why would you do something that might harm you when not doing it has no effect on anything?