The Ukrainian missile attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is politically a sign that despite the slow progress on the front lines in its counteroffensive, Ukraine can still inflict serious damage on the Russian military. Targets such as the Crimea bridge have considerable symbolic value as well as strategic purpose.
It’s also part of a broader effort – in Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk – to hit Russian logistics, fuel, maintenance and command centers, in order to disrupt their ability to supply the front lines.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been involved in hundreds of cruise missile attacks against Ukraine and threatens merchant shipping using Ukrainian ports. Any disruption to its operation and command facilities (as well as the targeting of vessels at sea and in dock) is a win, especially after the Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July. And, this week, the Ukrainians went after a drone facility in Crimea. Russia has used drones to target Ukraine’s Danube River ports.
Ukraine has devoted considerable effort to degrading Russian air defenses in Crimea. That effort now appears to be paying off – as Ukrainian Neptune missiles (and most probably UK-provided Storm Shadows) are capable of reaching targets deep inside Crimea.
While some US officials have been critical of Ukraine's concentration on Crimea, the Ukrainians argue that targeting anything to do with the Black Sea Fleet is worthwhile. As the Institute for the Study of War noted Thursday, “elements of the Black Sea Fleet’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade are engaged in critical defensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and the Black Sea Fleet’s 22nd Army Corps is defending positions on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.”
Read the full analysis here.