1. Another early lead for the HEAT in this one as they were up 20-9 on the strength of some early threes. As in many of their past seasons, if it’s the first quarter you really don’t need to check the box-score to know that they’re probably shooting better than 40 percent from the arc. But back to tonight, as in many of their past games, that early lead evaporated in a flash when the Spurs responded with a 19-0 run.
If you’ve been watching the HEAT lately – or this season, really – you could probably guess which direction this one took. Fast forward to the end of the third quarter, with Miami struggling to defend in transition more often than they have in about a month – this was a game at extreme elevation – and San Antonio led 84-80. The good news throughout is that Miami was definitively winning the minutes that Bam Adebayo (22 points) was on the court throughout the night, and the fourth quarter is when Adebayo is going to play a ton of minutes. Because of that, with Adebayo finishing plus-29, the HEAT were able to avoid another clutch game as they finished this one off before the final two minutes, 111-101.
It wasn’t the most comfortable road trip the HEAT have ever had – it’s never as good as it looks when you’re winning close games nor as bad as it looks when you’re losing them – but they capitalized on the road schedule ahead of them for a 4-0 trip. All that matters is stacking wins right now, and the more they’re able to win games with a bit more of a cushion like tonight the better they’ll be able to fully control whether the wins keep coming.
2. Important minutes for Duncan Robinson (12 points, three assists) in this one. Jimmy Butler (26 points on 15 shots) and Adebayo may have paced the offense for most of the night and shut it all down late in the fourth – with Victor Oladipo (five steals) continuing to make defensive plays with his combination of receiver hands and safety awareness – but it was Robinson who made the shots that pulled Miami back in front so they could play with a lead. Add a four-point play and a hand-off three as he stopped on a dime from a full sprint to his ledger, but there were also big-time plays where he didn’t shoot the ball at all. Hitting Adebayo when he drew two defenders on another handoff – what used to be one of Miami’s only ways of generating two on the ball – driving the lane for a floater that Adebayo could easily clean up, deflecting a pass for a Miami steal and leading a fast-break into an open corner three for Tyler Herro. He even drew a charge in the final minutes despite playing with five fouls.
Robinson has been in and out of the rotation this season as both his and the team’s shooting has fluctuated, and Robinson doesn’t normally get a chance to finish games as Erik Spoelstra prioritizes two-way players, but as always a credit to Robinson for making an impact. Quite the luxury to have someone with his shooting gifts – not to mention his chemistry with Adebayo – available at a moment’s notice.
3. If you’re going to play drop coverage against the pick-and-roll combo of Tyler Herro (26 points and seven assists) and Adebayo, you better be really good at drop coverage. The Spurs are – No. 30 in Defensive Rating and No. 16 defending in drop – mediocre at best, and mediocre drop coverage has been food for the HEAT. Not every pairing has excelled so the team numbers aren’t much better than average overall, but of the 39 combinations with at least 90 screens used, only Luka Doncic with Dwight Powell and Steph Curry with Kevon Looney are producing more than Herro and Adebayo’s 1.25 points per possession against drop.
With Jakob Poeltl and Zach Collins dropping back into the paint in this one, it looked a bit like it did in all those Wizards games a few weeks ago with Kristaps Porzingis. Herro either had plenty of room to get downhill and comfortably dribble into a mid-range shot, a giant passing window to drop the pocket pass off to Adebayo going towards the rim or a big man caught in the middle opening up the aerial space for a lob. And when the Spurs tried to adjust by playing higher up at the level of the screen, multiple miscommunications led to the HEAT either getting a wide open three or Adebayo getting a free dunk. With Robinson and Max Strus also able to capitalize on their shooting gravity as Adebayo dove towards the rim, ball screens and handoffs kept Miami’s offense alive on a night when they didn’t have Kyle Lowry to get them organized.