Are chili peppers getting less spicy? The truth is complicated.

Hot chili peppers can illicit big reactions: flushing in the face and ears, panting, tearing up, sweating, and maybe even some swearing. Chilis are inherently dramatic—and even by its own standards, the peppers have had an explosive couple of years.

Severe climate conditions might cause another shortage of sriracha hot sauce after a lapse in 2022 for the same reason. In 2023, a product with a single tortilla chip made with two of the hottest peppers in the world was pulled from shelves “out of an abundance of caution,” though a 14-year-old’s family says he died after eating the chip. Meanwhile, over the last year or so, panic that peppers are being purposefully grown to be less spicy have been inflamed by conspiracy theorists.

On the other hand, certain farmers are pushing back on the alleged “weakening” of peppers by cultivating barely-fit-for-human-consumption levels of heat. There’s also the popularity of viral internet series like “Hot Ones,” where celebrities eat chicken wings basted in hotter and hotter sauces, and “hot” snack varieties that have grown to include Cinnefuego Toast Crunch and Carolina Reaper chocolate.

Regardless of whether you prefer milder peppers or boundary-pushing spice, it seems like there is less and less middle ground for the curious foodie. Do you have to settle for only mild or life-choice-questioning hot, with nothing in between? And is our understanding of a chili’s heat—largely through the 112-year-old Scoville measurement process—even accurate?

Heat vs. flavor

“There’s no denying things are going in two different directions,” says Ted Ballweg, chili farmer and owner of Savory Accents. There are two camps, he says: one that prefers flavor over heat, and the other pushing the limits of how spicy chilis can be.

For those of us noticing weaker chilis at the supermarket, something else might be at play. As food historian and novelist David DeWitt, known as “The Pope of Peppers,” points out, part of the reason is simple profit.

“Generally, the larger the chili, the milder it is,” says DeWitt. “These days, jalapeños are getting to be about six inches long, when they used to be about three. Farmers are deliberately breeding for larger pods because they get paid by the poundage. Larger chilis weigh more, so they get paid more.”

Brad Rubin, Agri-Food Institute sector manager at Wells Fargo, told the Food Institute that yes, peppers are getting bigger and less flavorful because larger, more consistently spicy peppers sell better in stores.

To be clear though, DeWitt says in his experience he hasn’t found products like sriracha (which uses very common serrano peppers) to be any less spicy than before.

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Why the Scoville scale doesn’t work

Pharmaceutical chemist and professor Wilbur Scoville developed the Scoville Organoleptic Test in 1912, and it remains the standard 112 years later. The problem is that it wasn’t a precise system then and hasn’t gotten any more so with age.

The Scoville test works through taste testers. They’re given a solution of capsaicin, the compound that makes chilis spicy, in sugar water. More and more water is added until the tester says they no longer feel the heat. The Scoville rating is the number of times required to dilute the solution to eliminate the heat—so a pepper with a Scoville rating of 10,000 means the solution needs to be diluted 10,000 times to be neutralized.

Scoville tests have always depended on humans—and as anyone who has watched more than one episode of “Hot Ones” knows, sometimes you get someone who is completely unfazed by even the hottest sauces and sometimes you get someone who can barely get beyond mild without tearing up.

“That’s not very scientific, but it’s the only method we have,” Ballweg says. “All of our taste buds are different.”

Heat tolerance in people can be largely genetic, as shown in a 2012 study conducted by the University of Helsinki. Researchers took two sets of twins—one that shared the same genetic makeup (identical twins) and the other who had genetic distinctions (fraternal twins)—to measure their reactions to spicy foods. Their results suggest there are common genetic factors that can greatly impact a person’s response to spice—anywhere from 18 to 58 percent, with the rest determined by environmental factors.

Taking the human element out of the equation, heat level can vary a lot even within one species of chili pepper. Ballweg points to changes in their growing environment as a big factor. “Last year was a very hot, dry year here in Wisconsin…So the same pepper a year before that might have been 30,000 on the Scoville scale was now around 60,000 to 70,000. There are so many factors that can change a pepper’s heat level, in addition to subjective taste tests.”

More options than ever before

The mildest and hottest peppers get the most attention, so the concept of a “middle ground” may seem like a futile quest. But both Ballweg and DeWitt believe that you don’t have to settle for either defanged peppers or potentially toxic endurance tests.

Ballweg posts a Scoville Scale display at his market stands, so people can assess his peppers’ heat levels and find something that suits their tastes or intentions. “My suggestion is for folks to shop their local farmers markets for fresh chilis, because the farmers that grow them often have insight into heat and flavor profiles,” he says. “The bottom line for the consumer is ‘more varieties are better’—just ask questions to become enlightened about what suits you best. You have choices.”

With increased knowledge of and desire for more pepper flavor, peppers becoming less spicy might simply be a cultural shift. More ethnically and culinarily diverse food is available to and accepted by diners than ever before, and we’re all just...used to it.

“There’s definitely a bigger tolerance for spice than I’ve ever seen in my 70 years on the planet,” DeWitt says. “People travel more, they see more on TV, and have more opportunities to experience other culture’s cuisine.”