Investing insights
Our global Chief Investment Office (CIO) publishes our economic outlook and investing themes. From thought-leadership on ESG and long-term trends to timely commentary on market developments, our investing insights are designed to help each client shape their financial tomorrow.
CIO Insights quarterly report
CIO PERSPECTIVES: Q2 2024 Update
In the first issue of our new quarterly publication, we update our forecasts for 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.
Stocks
Annual Outlook 2024 | ESG: We‘re in this together
ESG investment has gone mainstream, with performance implications. Energy transition may point the way to investing in the sustainable economy.
Bonds
Annual Outlook 2024 | Bonds: Real rates matter
After years of extremely low interest rates, the investment universe is now complete again thanks to the renewed attractiveness of bonds as an asset class – and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future in our opinion.
Stocks
Annual Outlook 2024 | Sectors: banking on tech
U.S. growth stocks are probably still the way to go for the long term. European and Japanese financials could appeal too, as well as consumer discretionary, industrials and energy.
Stocks
Annual Outlook 2024 | Risks: de-risking risks
Be aware that measures to create stability may just create new risks. Rates are still on our radar.
CIO Special report
China: strong support for the property sector
China announced more measures to support the property sector at a national government meeting on May 17. The stimulus measures come at a time when China’s property sector continues to weaken with price declines and lower transaction volumes.
CIO Special report
BoE’s path to lower rates: what’s next?
The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its key interest rate at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting last Thursday. Signals from the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) indicate a potential rate cut as early as June 20, however.
CIO Special report
China: growth key to market upside
The recent positive performance by Chinese equities has been mainly driven by a modest improvement in macroeconomic data.
CIO Special report
Italy: staying positive
Italy has weathered recent economic crises, including COVID-19 and the European energy shock, better than expected. In Q4 2023, Italy’s GDP growth was +0.2% QoQ, compared to 0.0% for the Eurozone. For the full year 2023, Italy’s growth was 0.7%, outperforming the Eurozone’s 0.5%.
CIO Special report
Singapore: economic and sector prospects
Singapore’s economic openness creates both challenges and strengths. The external sector is an unavoidable source of risk, the high cost of living is a concern and an ageing population. But, set against this, Singapore has a number of important strengths – a globally-connected economy, business-friendly environment, political system and benefits from its role in ASEAN.
CIO Special report
Bottoming out in the German housing market
It remains a challenging environment for the German housing market, but rate cuts, economic growth and structural rental market shortages should help the market to bottom out.
Future Fundamentals podcast
Investing in the Blue Economy: a blueprint for action
In our Future Fundamentals podcast, Karen Sack, of ORRAA, and Markus Müller, our Chief Investment Officer for ESG, take a deep dive into the sustainable blue economy.
CIO Special report
Long-term Capital Market Assumptions: our latest forecasts
These form a vital component some systematic long-term asset allocation approaches. We highlight significant developments since our last review and the reasons for them.
CIO Special report
China’s economy: awaiting the right cues
China recently released a flurry of Q1 economic data. But while GDP numbers were surprisingly strong, some other activity measures continue to disappoint. So has China’s economy really turned a corner?
CIO Special report
Bitcoin: from bubble to mainstream?
Bitcoin is unlikely to assert itself as a widespread medium of exchange but may be on its way to mainstream acceptance as a store of value, although the risks of holding it remain high.
CIO Special report
Atmosphere: Shield of the earth
The third in our trilogy of keynote presentations on the Earth's "Life Pillars" explains why climate-related risks and opportunities should be important considerations for investors with regard to long-term portfolio development.
CIO Special report
Smart Mobility: EVs and batteries present opportunities and risks
Favourable long-term trends for the electric-vehicle market remain intact – but an excess supply of battery metals means the outlook for miners remains clouded.
Market insights
CIO Memo
Early interest rate turnaround in Switzerland
The Swiss National Bank has taken the lead as the first major central bank to cut interest rates amid subsiding inflationary pressures. The move sent a signal that the SNB would protect the economy from the consequences of an excessively strong franc.
CIO Memo
FOMC: Raising the bar
The Federal Reserve's March update to its economic projections implied that three 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts remain in store for 2024.
CIO Memo
Japan: the start of positive interest rates
In a landmark event, the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest-rate policy and yield curve control, though monetary policies remain accommodative.
CIO Memo
U.K. economy: on the way out of recession
The U.K. economy started the new year with moderate growth, and the rebound should give the Bank of England the cover it needs to stick to its wait-and-see approach. That could sustain the British pound's relative strength in the near term.
CIO Memo
Japan: when will the BoJ pivot?
Wage hikes by some leading manufacturers have set the tone for industry-wide pay rises. Japanese authorities are closely watching industry pay revisions as they expect it to trigger a “virtuous cycle of growth”. However, BoJ Governor Ueda recently played down the state of the Japanese economy, given mixed data signals.
CIO Memo
U.S. CPI: Patience is key
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annualised increase of +3.2% year-on-year (YoY), moving higher from last month’s reading. On a month-on-month basis (MoM) Core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy, remained at +0.4%.
CIO Memo
Nonfarm payrolls: Mixed report strengthens case for June cut
The latest Nonfarm payrolls report delivered higher-than-expected jobs figures for the month of February, with significant downward revisions also seen for the previous two months.
CIO Memo
ECB hints at interest rate reversal in June
The prospect of an imminent turnaround in interest rates should continue to provide the equity markets with a slight tailwind.
CIO Memo
U.S. CPI: Taking a detour
Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation figures will reinforce the Fed's cautious approach to a potential interest-rate cut in the near future.
CIO Memo
Nonfarm payrolls: Kicking the cut down the road
The U.S. jobs report for January showed the labour market on a stronger footing than forecast. That could mean that the Federal Reserve will hold off on interest-rate cuts for longer than had recently been expected.
CIO Memo
India: Interim budget targets strong fiscal improvement
A budget focused on strong fiscal consolidation unsurprisingly gave support to fixed income markets.
CIO Memo
BoE on hold as it’s "not there yet"
The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged as expected, but it also softened its language, dropping a warning about the potential for further policy tightening should inflationary pressures re-emerge.
CIO Viewpoint Commodities
Metals: the three Gs driving metals
In this CIO Viewpoint Commodity, the three Gs driving metals, we provide a deep-dive and expand into the individual dynamics of iron ore, copper, platinum, silver and gold. Learn more.
CIO Viewpoint Commodities
Gold: still time to shine
In this CIO Viewpoint Commodities, we explain why we see further upside potential for gold in the medium term. Browse for complete information today.
CIO Viewpoint Equity
A look beyond the usual suspects
In this CIO Viewpoint Equity, we discuss on the latest equity market developments and provide our view on the german large & mid cap space. Browse for complete information.
CIO Viewpoint Fixed Income
Bond markets in line with fundamentals
In this CIO Viewpoint Fixed Income – Bond markets in line with fundamentals – we discuss current conditions on bond markets as well as the short- to medium-term outlook.
Asset-class insights
Asset class insights
Browse asset class insights in these special reports published by our global Chief Investment Office (CIO). Read more in our CIO Specials.
CIO Special report
Venture Capital investing: a closer look
Our CIO Special report and introductory video discuss how the VC sector is developing and its role in portfolios.