The Raheem Mostert dynasty conversation is about as complicated as it gets. On one hand, we have a running back coming off of a career season (234 touches for 1,187 yards is huge for a player with some health concerns) who plays in an explosive offense that fits his skill set like a glove.
On the other hand, Mostert turned 32 this offseason and shares a Miami Dolphins backfield with one of the more promising young backs in the game that will certainly be pushing for increased usage in short order.
The RB position as a whole is one of turning and burning. Should you be leveraging the huge 2023 season in the fantasy football trade market, or is it wiser to squeeze the orange and see if another productive season can be had?
Raheem Mostert’s Dynasty Outlook
Mostert is now the Dolphins’ franchise record holder for scrimmage touchdowns scored in a single season (21: 18 rushing and three receiving). Those numbers did wonders for you in 2023, but none of them mean a thing moving forward — we’re all about looking through the windshield and not the rearview in fantasy football, especially when it comes to dynasty formats.
#Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert now has 21 TDs on the season 😮💨#FinsUp
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 24, 2023
Mostert converted on 60% of his carries from five yards or closer to paydirt (RB average in 2023 for backs not named Mostert: 38.9%) and turned 9.4% of his targets into touchdowns (2.8%).
What we are dealing with is either a historic outlier of a producer (and that’s without taking into account his advanced age) or one that is destined to come crashing back to Earth in the efficiency departments.
MORE: PFN’s Consensus Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
I’m more likely to bet on the latter. If I had to pick a Dolphins running back who is the “historic outlier” that can sustain numbers like that, Mostert isn’t even my first pick!
The age curve for a player like Mostert is a bit of a moving target given that he touched the ball only seven times through three seasons. The human body still ages, but without the wear and tear that someone like former Dolphins back Ronnie Brown had (671 touches through three seasons), it stands to reason that Mostert can be an outlier on that front.
This Miami offense will remain potent, and with Mostert under contract for 2024, squeezing another year of viable production out of him is a reasonable expectation. However, considering him as an asset much beyond that is a little more optimistic than I am willing to be.
Mostert’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Mostert land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Mostert lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Saquon Barkley | PHI
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Kyren Williams | LAR
9) James Cook | BUF
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Javonte Williams | DEN
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
16) Derrick Henry | BAL
17) Nick Chubb | CLE
18) Josh Jacobs | GB
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Zamir White | LV
21) D’Andre Swift | CHI
22) Tony Pollard | TEN
23) Aaron Jones | MIN
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
25) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
26) Najee Harris | PIT
27) Tyjae Spears | TEN
28) Blake Corum | FA
29) James Conner | ARI
30) Joe Mixon | HOU
31) Jonathon Brooks | FA
32) Trey Benson | FA
33) Austin Ekeler | WAS
34) David Montgomery | DET
35) Keaton Mitchell | BAL
36) Raheem Mostert | MIA
37) Gus Edwards | LAC
38) Devin Singletary | NYG
39) Zack Moss | CIN
40) Kendre Miller | NO
Should You Trade Mostert in Dynasty?
By trading Mostert, you’re more betting on the ascension of De’Von Achane than anything. The rookie turned 130 touches into 997 yards and 11 scores as a rookie — making a bet on him a solid one.
The most valuable time for promising running backs is during their rookie contract, something Miami still has three years of. Achane is making less than half of what Mostert will in 2024.
The presence of Achane, of course, isn’t news to anyone. It will make moving Mostert difficult. There will likely be a “win-now” team that has some interest. It’s on you to identify that team and take advantage.
I’ll admit that I have some age bias here. Mostert doesn’t fit the mold of your standard running back, but that doesn’t make him immune to Father Time’s impact.
If we’re going to pencil in an increase in usage for Achane, Mostert will need to rely on scoring in a significant way. Maybe not to the degree he did last season, but in a break-the-mold sort of way that I’m not near comfortable projecting.
Over the past five seasons, here is the distribution by age for double-digit rushing touchdown seasons by running backs.
- Under 25 years old: 36.8%
- 25 years old: 18.4%
- 26 years old: 18.4%
- 27 years old: 13.2%
- 28 years old: 5.3%
- 29 years old: 5.3%
- 30+ years old: 2.6*
*Mostert is the only player in this pool; he was the first age-30+ running back to score 10 times on the ground since Adrian Peterson and DeAngelo Williams in 2015.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
Trading Mostert is the play in principle, though I’m not giving him away for free. At the very least, he should hold Flex value for another season, making him a roster-worthy player on a team that is ready to compete at a high level.
Fantasy is a game of expectations. If you’re expecting a carbon copy of 2023, you’re in trouble. If you’re looking for a player to round out your starting lineup, I think you’ll be just fine with Mostert if you can’t find a dance partner in the trade market.
With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.
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