Netanyahu's strategy for Gaza: A perpetual cycle of conflict to keep his power

As someone who has covered the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for almost a quarter of a century, I’m starting to see Israel’s plan for Gaza and it’s grim. Forget a post-war vision, it’s more war in perpetuity.

The Sunni-led Arab states, especially the rich Gulf nations, have signalled their willingness to fund the vast reconstruction effort that will be required if this latest spasm of violence ever abates.

Ultra-optimists can see Gaza becoming Dubai-on-the-Med, but what Mr Netanyahu, and the Jewish supremacists - those on the Israeli far-right who make up his cabinet - may have in mind, is more Somalia-on-the-Med.

The monstrous assault on southern Israel carried out by Hamas on October 7 convinced the rest of the world about the need for conflict resolution.

But the reaction of most Israelis was entirely different. The murderous rampage convinced them that conflict resolution is impossible.

Or perhaps it’s better to say, it confirmed for them that resolving things is impossible. After all that’s what Mr Netanyahu has been telling them throughout his almost unbroken tenure as their prime minister since 2009.

Now, the rest of the world is saying there can be no going back to the situation on October 6, but it looks like that is what Mr Netanyahu is banking on, albeit with a greatly weakened Hamas in control of Gaza.

Among the many things that is testing America’s patience is Israeli’s reluctance to discuss ‘the day after’ - the governance of post-war Gaza.

Washington has come up with several options, including a revitalised Palestinian Authority (PA) taking control with the backing of pan-Arab security forces.

Mr Netanyahu can’t be seen to endorse this because many in his cabinet are dreaming about re-establishing Jewish settlements in Gaza and don’t want the PA anywhere near the place.

Mr Netanyahu may conclude that his least worst option is to leave a weak Hamas in charge. Under that scenario a lot of his problems disappear.

Calls for a two-state solution will fade; the war in the form of targeted air and drone strikes can go on; and so can his rule.

If ‘the day after’ never dawns then neither does Mr Netanyahu’s day of reckoning.

It’s a cynical and depressing concept, but that doesn’t make it unlikely or unrealistic.

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