You can help empower voters with the information they need when heading to the ballot box. Join the Ballotpedia Society.

New York's 21st Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



2022 →
← 2018
New York's 21st Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Elise Stefanik (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. (general elections); primary times vary by county
Voting in New York
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
New York's 21st Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th
New York elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 21st Congressional District of New York, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Elise Stefanik won election in the general election for U.S. House New York District 21.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 2, 2020
June 23, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Elise Stefanik, who was first elected in 2014. The race was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.

New York's 21st Congressional District is located in the northeastern portion of the state and includes Clinton, Franklin, St. Lawrence, Jefferson, Lewis, Hamilton, Essex, Warren, Washington and Fulton counties and parts of Saratoga and Herkimer counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, New York's 21st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 43.8 41.1
Republican candidate Republican Party 54.2 58.8
Difference 10.4 17.7

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New York modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee voting eligibility in the general election was extended to any voter who was "unable to appear personally at the polling place of the election district in which they are a qualified voter because there is a risk of contracting or spreading a disease causing illness to the voter or to other members of the public." The state launched an absentee ballot request portal.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The filing deadline for independent nominating petitions was extended to July 30, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Explore Election Results site ad border blue.png

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 21

Incumbent Elise Stefanik defeated Tedra Cobb in the general election for U.S. House New York District 21 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Elise_Stefanik_official_congressional_photo.jpg
Elise Stefanik (R / Conservative Party / Independence Party)
 
58.8
 
188,655
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Tedra_Cobb.JPG
Tedra Cobb (D / Working Families Party)
 
41.1
 
131,995
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
138

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 320,788
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. Tedra Cobb advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 21.

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Elise Stefanik advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 21.

Conservative Party primary election

The Conservative Party primary election was canceled. Incumbent Elise Stefanik advanced from the Conservative Party primary for U.S. House New York District 21.

Independence Party primary election

The Independence Party primary election was canceled. Incumbent Elise Stefanik advanced from the Independence Party primary for U.S. House New York District 21.

Serve America Movement Party primary election

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Working Families Party primary election

The Working Families Party primary election was canceled. Tedra Cobb advanced from the Working Families Party primary for U.S. House New York District 21.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New York's 21st Congressional District the 207th most Republican nationally.[6]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.21. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.21 points toward that party.[7]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[8] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[9] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Elise Stefanik Republican Party, Independence Party, Conservative Party $13,349,929 $11,718,617 $1,983,541 As of December 31, 2020
Tedra Cobb Democratic Party, Working Families Party $5,693,663 $5,700,136 $32,848 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: New York's 21st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 21st Congressional District candidates in New York in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New York, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
New York 21st Congressional District Qualified party 375 Reduced by executive action in response to the coronavirus pandemic N/A N/A 4/2/2020 Source
New York 21st Congressional District Unaffiliated 3,500 5% of the total number of votes cast for governor in the district in the last election, or 3,500, whichever is less N/A N/A 5/26/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: New York's 21st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 21

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Elise_Stefanik_official_congressional_photo.jpg
Elise Stefanik (R)
 
56.1
 
131,981
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Tedra_Cobb.JPG
Tedra Cobb (D)
 
42.4
 
99,791
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Lynn_Kahn_Presidential_Candidate_2016.jpg
Lynn Kahn (G) Candidate Connection
 
1.5
 
3,437

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 235,209
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 21

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Tedra_Cobb.JPG
Tedra Cobb
 
55.7
 
10,853
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Katie_Wilson.jpg
Katie Wilson
 
12.1
 
2,356
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Dylan_Ratigan_Campaign_Photo.jpg
Dylan Ratigan
 
11.9
 
2,313
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Emily_Martz.jpg
Emily Martz
 
11.1
 
2,165
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Patrick_Nelson.jpg
Patrick Nelson
 
9.2
 
1,802

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 19,489
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 21

Candidate
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Elise_Stefanik_official_congressional_photo.jpg
Elise Stefanik

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: New York's 21st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Elise Stefanik (R) defeated Mike Derrick (D) and Matt Funiciello (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced any opposition in the primaries on June 28, 2016.[14][15]

U.S. House, New York District 21 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngElise Stefanik Incumbent 65.3% 177,886
     Democratic Mike Derrick 30.2% 82,161
     Green Matt Funiciello 4.6% 12,452
Total Votes 272,499
Source: New York Board of Elections

2014

See also: New York's 21st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 21st Congressional District of New York held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Elise Stefanik (R) defeated Aaron Woolf (D) and Matt Funiciello (Green) in the general election.

U.S. House, New York District 21 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngElise Stefanik 55.1% 96,226
     Democratic Aaron Woolf 33.8% 59,063
     Green Matt Funiciello 11% 19,238
     N/A Write-in votes 0.1% 141
Total Votes 174,668
Source: New York State Board of Elections, NYS Board of Elections Rep. in Congress Election Returns November 4, 2014," accessed August 30, 2021

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ New York Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.
  6. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  7. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  8. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  9. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  10. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ New York State Board of Elections, "Filings received for the 2016 Primary Election," accessed May 15, 2016
  15. ↑ Politico, "New York House Races Results," June 28, 2016


New York's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Chuck Schumer (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Pat Ryan (D)
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
Democratic Party (18)
Republican Party (10)


v • e
2019-2020 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona (special) • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia (special) • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming
CongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
v • e
Ballotpedia
About
Executive: Leslie Graves, President • Gwen Beattie, Chief Operating Officer • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy

Communications: Alison Graves • Carley Allensworth • Abigail Campbell • Sarah Groat • Dillon Redmond • Erica Shumaker
External Relations: Andrew Heath • Moira Delaney • Hannah Nelson • Michelle Robinson
Operations: Meghann Olshefski • Amanda Herbert • Mandy Morris • Caroline Presnell • Kelly Rindfleisch
Policy: Caitlin Styrsky • Molly Byrne • Jon Dunn • Jacob Hupp • Jimmy McAllister • Annelise Reinwald
Research: Josh Altic
Tech: Matt Latourelle • Ryan Burch • Kirsten Corrao • Beth Dellea • Travis Eden • Tate Kamish • Margaret Kearney • Eric Lotto • Trevor Pollo • Joseph Sanchez

Contributors: Scott Rasmussen
Editorial
Geoff Pallay, Editor-in-Chief • Daniel Anderson, Managing Editor • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor • Cory Eucalitto, Managing Editor • Mandy Gillip, Managing Editor • Doug Kronaizl, Local Elections Project Manager • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Thomas Ellis • Nicole Fisher • Brianna Galatioto • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Jaime Healy-Plotkin • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Roneka Matheny • Nathan Maxwell • Ellie Mikus • Jackie Mitchell • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Maddie Sinclair Johnson • Abbey Smith • Janie Valentine • Joel Williams • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox • Mercedes Yanora
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=New_York%27s_21st_Congressional_District_election,_2020&oldid=8520021"