Von Stauffenberg succeeds in 1944, does Germany still fall?

Faramir · Apr 28, 2024

July 1944 Hitler is killed and the military faction assassinate Himmler and Goebbels.
Top echelons of power are de-nazified and calls for armistice with both US/UK and Russian powers.

On the Western Front, this is before the Falais Pocket, before the Battle of the Bulge, Bulgaria has not changed sides.

Germans troops are in areas of France not in war zones, near a million servicemen in Italy, some in Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands and others in Southern Europe including Greece.

The Soviet forces are approaching Warsaw and entering western Europe to the South of Germany.

Would the German military be able to resist unconditional surrender by diplomacy and threat of further war?

Sir Jasper · Apr 28, 2024

I cannot offer an extended opinion on this, but at the time the plotters against Hitler were not regarded sympathetically in the West. They were seen as trying to save Germany from the consequences of Hitler's war, which they were generally thought to have been quite happy to go along with when things were going well.

PeabodyKid · Apr 28, 2024

I do not think the plotters would resist unconditional surrender. I think there is a tendency to somewhat mythologize Von Stauffenberg and his allies, but I think they wanted the war over for Germans. And I think the three main opponents (USSR, US, Great Britain/British Empire) would not stop with Germany in any way intact:

1. The people of all three opponents had been primed for total victory by national leadership. And everyone remembered not "finishing the job" in WW I - especially elements of the militaries.

2. I think there still would have been division of Europe - more or less as it was, but if anything more favorable to the USSR. Probably no 4 power Berlin. France maybe not involved at at all. Japan was still fighting - probably concessions to Stalin to get USSR to immediately attack Japan. Probably Korea is Soviet occupied by USSR at end, maybe northern Japan.

3. Still war trials but probably not as many.

4. Re the US: Roosevelt still president, health is failing, but still clearly in charge: Leahy is his closest advisor, great influence. Democratic convention July 21, 1944 - Truman still selected VP candidate (i.e. next President). Churchill remains in power. Plot was July 20.

1944 Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Clement Attlee - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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20 July plot - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Battle fronts in Europe as of 15 July 1944

Faramir · Apr 28, 2024

Military has its own justice and the Generals that did not follow the Nazi agenda were side-lined or if thought dangerous to Nazism were excuted. Then you had the spies.

Faramir · Apr 28, 2024

PeabodyKid said:
I do not think the plotters would resist unconditional surrender. I think there is a tendency to somewhat mythologize Von Stauffenberg and his allies, but I think they wanted the war over for Germans. And I think the three main opponents (USSR, US, Great Britain/British Empire) would not stop with Germany in any way intact:

1. The people of all three opponents had been primed for victory by national leadership. And everyone remembered not "finishing the job" in WW I - especially elements of the militaries.

2. I think there still would have been division of Europe - more or less as it was, but if anything more favorable to the USSR. Probably no 4 power Berlin. France maybe not involved at at all. Japan was still fighting - probably concessions to Stalin to get USSR to immediately attack Japan. Probably Korea is Soviet occupied by USSR at end, maybe northern Japan.

3. Still war trials but probably not as many.

4. Re the US: Roosevelt still president, health is failing, but still clearly in charge. Democratic convention July 21, 1944 - Truman still selected VP candidate (i.e. next President). Churchill remains in power. Plot was July 20.

1944 Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

=================================================================

20 July plot - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think that is reasonable if they agree to surrender unconditionally though doubt they would, the Stauffenberg group once out in the open would be contested by senior German military officers and a Junta would emerge and then they would likely try to break the allies diplomatically. I think Hitler was initially popular at least to some degree because Versailles was thought to be so damaging (German view) which is why I think they would continue to fight.

The question for me is whether they could have traded land without a fight and influence with the Soviets for peace?

Stalin had showed he was into realpolitik so might have traded especially if given proof of the Nazi leader's execution.

PeabodyKid · Apr 28, 2024

Many good points, but I think especially in France and Italy I see the German Generals surrendering immediately, probably not so much in the East. I think there is in a practical sense no central control in Germany very quickly. The only way I see the plotters exercising control is by surrendering immediately.

Would be interesting to see the West and the USSR scramble to capture/occupy/co-op those involved with nuclear programs and rocket programs.

Faramir · Apr 28, 2024

PeabodyKid said:
Many good points, but I think especially in France and Italy I see the German Generals surrendering immediately, probably not so much in the East. I think there is in a practical sense no central control in Germany very quickly. The only way I see the plotters exercising control is by surrendering immediately.

Would be interesting to see the West and the USSR scramble to capture/occupy/co-op those involved with nuclear programs and rocket programs.

In terms of initial reaction I would see the Germans retreating in the East (no Hitler now) giving diplomacy a chance.
I would guess they would say to the Soviets they would concede Poland though not old Prussia and add the possibility of a free hand in Southern Slavic Europe except Croatia. If accepted the Iron curtain might be extended to mid Greece.

To the Western Allies I think they would concede to leave France and Belgium and Italy.

I think Stalin would be tempted though the Allies would not and so fighting would continue though in the event Stalin signs a treaty with Germany the West would be struggling up against larger forces led by professionals without Hitler's interference. I heard yesterday that as Patton was rushing towards the Ardennes he writes in his notebook, 'we could still lose this war' in Dec 1944.

As for generals in Paris and Milan I think they would be encouraged to follow their superiors.

Leftyhunter · Apr 28, 2024

Faramir said:
July 1944 Hitler is killed and the military faction assassinate Himmler and Goebbels.
Top echelons of power are de-nazified and calls for armistice with both US/UK and Russian powers.

On the Western Front, this is before the Falais Pocket, before the Battle of the Bulge, Bulgaria has not changed sides.

Germans troops are in areas of France not in war zones, near a million servicemen in Italy, some in Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands and others in Southern Europe including Greece.

The Soviet forces are approaching Warsaw and entering western Europe to the South of Germany.

Would the German military be able to resist unconditional surrender by diplomacy and threat of further war?

Stalin by 1944 was not a happy camper in regards to Germany keeping its word. The Red Army would sieze has much land has it could regardless of Hitler being overthrown or not. The best Germany could do once it surrendered in 1944 was to hope the Western allies could occupy all of German territory or at least most of it before the Soviet's arrived.
Leftyhunter

delta1 · Apr 28, 2024

The terms that the plotters proposed to offer were completely unacceptable to the Allies. They would have had to go significantly further.

Best case scenario would have been a negotiated surrender with certain Allied promises regarding the nature of the occupation. However, I can't see even a non-Nazi German government accepting these terms until the situation had become even more desperate.

PeabodyKid · Apr 28, 2024

Regarding Allen Dulles, OSS station chief in Switzerland re among other things his contacts with anti-Hitler Germans. My guess is he had some leeway to make instant decisions if Hitler had been killed.

OSS Spymaster Allen Dulles

By Peter Kross During World War II, Switzerland was one of the few neutral countries to survive unscathed amid the death and destruction that was being heaped upon the rest of Europe. Strategically located on the borders of France, Germany, Austria, Italy, and Czechoslovakia, Switzerland was an...

warfarehistorynetwork.com

Excerpt

Gisevius was the Abwehr voice in Zurich and a covert member of the Black Orchestra or Schwarze Kapelle, an anti-Hitler organization which included prominent members of the German diplomatic corps. Gisevius first entered the German intelligence service in the dreaded Gestapo under Heinrich Himmler but soon transferred to the Abwehr. Gisevius soon soured on Hitler's regime and was sent by his boss, Admiral Wilhelm Canaris, the head of the Abwehr, who was also part of the Black Orchestra, to act as the liaison officer to the various resistance groups.

Dulles first met Gisevius in 1943 at the World Council of Churches building in Bern. Before approaching the OSS, Gisevius made contact with the British who thought he was a plant, out to sew disinformation among them. They refused his entreaties, and the wily German soon found a home with Dulles and the OSS. Gisevius proved to be a gold mine for the Allies as he gave them the locations of the powerful German V-1 and V-2 terror weapon launch sites. He was also an active member in the abortive plot led by Count Klaus von Stauffenberg to assassinate Hitler on July 20, 1944.

OSS spymaster Allen Dulles established a base of operations in wartime Switzerland.

Leftyhunter · Apr 28, 2024

Faramir said:
July 1944 Hitler is killed and the military faction assassinate Himmler and Goebbels.
Top echelons of power are de-nazified and calls for armistice with both US/UK and Russian powers.

On the Western Front, this is before the Falais Pocket, before the Battle of the Bulge, Bulgaria has not changed sides.

Germans troops are in areas of France not in war zones, near a million servicemen in Italy, some in Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands and others in Southern Europe including Greece.

The Soviet forces are approaching Warsaw and entering western Europe to the South of Germany.

Would the German military be able to resist unconditional surrender by diplomacy and threat of further war?

To little and to late. By July 1944 there's not much the German can offer negotiation wise . Negotiations are most successful when both parties are in a position of strength which is not Germany in July 1944. If Hitler was overthrown between say September 1941 to the end of 1942 the Western allies might of agreed to somewhat favorable terms of surrender with Germany but Stalin is whole other factor.
Leftyhunter

PeabodyKid · Apr 28, 2024

Regarding US Strategy in the Pacific if Hitler killed - I assume that any invasion of The Philippines is canceled. I would think the plan would be to go to Formasa ASAP, especially given an anticipated, and desired, Soviet push into Manchuria.

betgo · Apr 28, 2024

The plotters had no intention of agreeing to unconditional surrender. They might have been forced into it. It depends on how the German military and the Allies react.

betgo · Apr 28, 2024

Would the German military continue fighting, maybe with no longer police hanging anyone behind the lines who might be a deserter? It also depends on how the public in the US and UK and neutral countries would react to the Allies continuing the war when the German government was trying to negotiate a conditional surrender.

macaquerie · Apr 28, 2024

Sir Jasper said:
I cannot offer an extended opinion on this, but at the time the plotters against Hitler were not regarded sympathetically in the West. They were seen as trying to save Germany from the consequences of Hitler's war, which they were generally thought to have been quite happy to go along with when things were going well.

I feel like people at the time got it right the first time then. Stauffenberg and his allies only hated Hitler because they thought he was ruining the war effort with his meddling, and believed that getting rid of him they could at least try to make an honorable peace, but that was just pure delusion on their part.

betgo · Apr 28, 2024

The Soviets actually publicly supported the plotters, which the western Allies did not.

There would be problems with the western Allies continuing the war. Hard to justify it to partition and occupy German and hang Nazis. Plus it let the Soviets occupy eastern Europe. Also, there would be advantages to making peace with the war with Japan still going on.

Leftyhunter · Apr 28, 2024

betgo said:
The Soviets actually publicly supported the plotters, which the western Allies did not.

There would be problems with the western Allies continuing the war. Hard to justify it to partition and occupy German and hang Nazis. Plus it let the Soviets occupy eastern Europe. Also, there would be advantages to making peace with the war with Japan still going on.

Then again the Soviet's could say one thing and do another. The British and French were not happy with the Nazis so hard to say if they would forgive and forget. By July 1944 both the British and French have suffered quite a few military and civilian casualties.
Leftyhunter

wenamun · Apr 28, 2024

betgo said:
The Soviets actually publicly supported the plotters, which the western Allies did not.

There would be problems with the western Allies continuing the war. Hard to justify it to partition and occupy German and hang Nazis. Plus it let the Soviets occupy eastern Europe. Also, there would be advantages to making peace with the war with Japan still going on.

I don't know about Soviet support for the 20 July plot. The Soviets had multiple occasions to support uprisings and plotters. A month later, in August 1944 they sent a memo United States Ambassador, Harriman on the situation in Warsaw stating that the Soviet Government opposed US plans to airdrop arms to resistance groups in the city and saw it as an 'adventuristic affair'. Stalin had plans for Poland - forming a communist state that worked as a Soviet satellite - and a successful uprising could threaten his plan.

Same counts for the 20 July plot of course. The Red Army was out on revenge so why risk a German unconditional surrender to the Allied forces?

Faramir · Apr 29, 2024

Leftyhunter said:
To little and to late. By July 1944 there's not much the German can offer negotiation wise . Negotiations are most successful when both parties are in a position of strength which is not Germany in July 1944. If Hitler was overthrown between say September 1941 to the end of 1942 the Western allies might of agreed to somewhat favorable terms of surrender with Germany but Stalin is whole other factor.
Leftyhunter

I actually think there is, the Soviets had about 500,000 trying to snuff out the Courland Pocket while the rest pushed on towards Germany.
Also German occupied northern Greece and the Balkans and this with an agreement for Germany to leave in tandem with Soviet troops replacing Germans pulling out might have proved too much of a temptation, remember the Serbs have always been pro-Russian since the Ottomans and Stalin in the last treaty said to Churchill you can have have either Poland or Greece. In this situation he would get both unless GB could act very quickly.

I also think about 80 King Tigers alone were used in the Battle of the Bulge in Dec 1944 just one example of working military Tech still operational and more would come as they pulled out of other fronts. Not enough to win a long drawn out war yet perhaps just enough to make others rethink thier approach in terms of projected losses.

Faramir · Apr 29, 2024

macaquerie said:
I feel like people at the time got it right the first time then. Stauffenberg and his allies only hated Hitler because they thought he was ruining the war effort with his meddling, and believed that getting rid of him they could at least try to make an honorable peace, but that was just pure delusion on their part.

Stauffenberg was a colonel so it is more difficult to know how much he was aware, people like Rommel who were overridden on D-Day by Hitler and there must have been many more who realised Hitler was 'sabotaging' their efforts.

Others like you say turned a blind eye to Nazi ideology though I would say if they did not they would not have survived in their posts, yet undoubtedly self-survival motivated many.

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Von Stauffenberg succeeds in 1944, does Germany still fall?

Faramir

Sir Jasper

PeabodyKid

1944 Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection - Wikipedia