Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon 

Predicted winner: Godzilla Minus One (+100)

We’re betting the big lizard wins its first-ever Academy Award for visual effects after Godzilla Minus One became an unexpected hit stateside. It’d give the film’s director, Takashi Yamazaki, an Oscar win, an uncommon and awesome place to honor the filmmaker for making the best Godzilla film since the original (and maybe ever). 

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things 

Predicted winner: Barbie (+105)

We’re betting that Jacqueline Durran wins her third Academy Award (and second for a Greta Gerwig film after winning for Little Women in 2020) for her impeccable costume design for Barbie. This is the category, outside of Best Original Song, where the blockbuster comedy has its best odds.

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things 

Predicted winner: Oppenheimer (-480)

Barring a major surprise, Jennifer Lame should win her first Academy Award for her work in pulling together the two narrative strands that encompassed the rigorous epic that Christopher Nolan crafted with Oppenheimer. If you’re looking for an upset, look to Killers of the Flower Moon and legendary editor Thelma Schoonmaker.

Jason McDonald/Netflix via AP

Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

Predicted winner: Maestro (-175)

Legendary makeup artist Kazu Hiro and company probably have the best chances in what should be a competitive category, as their work bringing Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein to life helped elevate that biopic.

Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures

Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things 

Predicted winner: Oppenheimer (-550)

Another fairly easy Oppenheimer win to predict, Hoyte van Hoytema’s sweeping cinematography for Nolan’s epic should net the master lensman a very well-deserved first Oscar.

Atsushi Nishijima/Searchlight Pictures via AP

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things 

Predicted winner: Poor Things (+110)

This category feels a bit up in the air, but we’ll guess that the Academy will lean toward the dreamlike world that Yorgos Lanthimos’ team crafted for Poor Things as our winner. It could be Barbie or Oppenheimer.

Nominees: “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon), “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)

Predicted winner: “What Was I Made For?”  (-550)

Go ahead and pencil in a win here for Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, their second in Best Original Song in three ceremonies. Their song for Barbie looks like it’ll waltz over the finish line to give the duo more Oscars.

Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted winner: Oppenheimer (-1200)

We’re guessing that Oppenheimer and composer Ludwig Göransson will be victorious here, adding to the impressive tally Nolan’s film should net come Oscar night. It’d be Göransson’s second Oscar after winning in the same category for Black Panther in 2019.

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest 

Predicted winner: Oppenheimer (-230)

While the chilling sound mix from The Zone of Interest won in this category at the BAFTAs and could definitely take this category, we’ll lean on Oppenheimer to continue its dominant streak. Sound editor Richard King has earned three Oscars working with Nolan, and we’ll bet he wins a fourth.

Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

Predicted winner: 20 Days in Mariupol (-750)

The acclaimed documentary about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters with wins at the BAFTAs and the DGAs, which positions it as the favorite.

A24

Nominees: Io capitano (Italy), Perfect Days (Japan), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Predicted winner: The Zone of Interest  (-1500)

Auteur Jonathan Glazer looks to win his first Oscar for his harrowing Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest, which would give the United Kingdom a rare win in International Feature since the film in question is in German, not English.

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted winner: The Boy and the Heron (+125)

This feels like it’s a very tight race between Hayao Miyazaki’s beloved latest film and the acclaimed sequel in the Spider-Verse series. It’s a coin flip, since the former won the BAFTA for animated film and the latter won the Annie Award for best film. Our head says Spidey, but our gut says Miyazaki.

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest 

Predicted winner: American Fiction (-125)

While some might assume Oppenheimer might continue its steamroll here or that Barbie could win its biggest award of the night, Cord Jefferson’s debut script in American Fiction has picked up plenty of late steam after winning the BAFTA and the USC Scripter Award. We’re betting it’ll repeat here.

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives 

Predicted winner: Anatomy of a Fall (-210)

The French courtroom drama has plenty of fans, and we’re guessing the Academy will honor it here and give screenwriting team Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, who are partners, Oscars for their outstanding script.

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Predicted winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (-2000)

Perhaps the easiest award to predict of the night, Randolph is a virtual lock to win for her phenomenal performance in The Holdovers. It’ll be an incredibly deserved win, and we’re thinking it’s the category where Alexander Payne’s film gets its due.

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Predicted winner: Robert Downey Jr. (-2400)

Another virtual lock for Oscar night, Downey Jr. has swept through awards season for his biting portrayal of Lewis Strauss in Oppenheimer. He should bring it all home at the Academy Awards. It’ll be a great moment to honor one of the great actors of any generation.

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Predicted winner: Lily Gladstone (-125)

This is the hardest category to predict of any this year, as any one of Gladstone, Stone or even Hüller could win the Oscar. Gladstone winning the Screen Actors Guild shows a strong support for her performance stateside, but Stone winning the BAFTA raises our eyebrows quite a bit.

There is a prevailing theory that Gladstone and Stone could split votes for Hüller to shock win an upset win, but we’re thinking that the international block of voters will split its votes between Stone and Hüller to pave way for a very well-earned Gladstone victory.

Keep in mind that the BAFTAs strangely didn’t nominate Gladstone in Best Actress, so her winning the SAG looms large for us.

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Predicted winner: Cillian Murphy (-1000)

When Giamatti lost the SAG for Best Actor, it confirmed what we should’ve already assumed. Murphy was the favorite all along for Best Actor, a category that has long admired respected actors portraying real-life people. Combining that with the fact that Oppenheimer will be a juggernaut, and you’ll have Murphy winning his first Academy Award.

Nominees: Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Predicted winner: Christopher Nolan (-2000)

Nolan feels like he’s barreling in on a career achievement in Best Director, as it’d be his first Oscar in an illustrious career as one of our remaining household name filmmakers. As Oppenheimer might be the accomplishment of his distinguished career so far, it’s a more than fitting moment for a win.

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest 

Predicted winner: Oppenheimer (-3500)

Nolan’s historical epic completes its colossal Oscar night with a win in Best Picture, giving the filmmaker his first victory in the night’s biggest category.

The only film that might present a challenge is The Zone of Interest, but that feels unlikely at the moment given how Oppenheimer has dominated the precursors (BAFTA, DGA, SAG, PGA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes).

Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures via AP

• Oppenheimer – 8
• Barbie – 2
• 20 Days in Mariupol – 1
• American Fiction – 1
• Anatomy of a Fall – 1
• The Boy and the Heron – 1
• Godzilla Minus One – 1
• The Holdovers – 1
• Killers of the Flower Moon – 1
• Maestro – 1
• Poor Things – 1
• The Zone of Interest – 1

We’re not doing individual commentary on short films, but we’ll go ahead and predict:

• Wes Anderson and Steven Rales for The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (Best Live-Action Short Film) (-550)
• Dave Mullins and Brad Booker for War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko (Best Animated Short Film) (+175)
• Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic for The ABCs of Book Banning (Best Documentary Short Film) (-125)