Guest Columnist: What History Tells Us About Top 6 QBs in Any NFL Draft

(The Talk of Fame Two occasionally will ask guest writers to submit columns of their choice. Today, Buffalo Bills' fan and long-time Talk of Fame follower Rick Quodomine digs into the history of the first six quarterbacks of drafts from 1998-2021 and discovers a disturbing trend), 

In a recent Talk of Fame Two article, Clark Judge pointed out that the Class of 2024's first-round quarterbacks, while historic (there were six among the first 12 picks), isn’t guaranteed to be successful. After all, if we look at the 2018 draft, only two of the top six quarterbacks taken then – Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson – start for the team that drafted them.

Josh Rosen is out of the league, while the other guy to get significant starts recently for the team that drafted him is ... ? Here's a clue: He was the sixth quarterback taken in 2018, and I’ll give you a minute.

If you said, "Mason Rudolph," you get the kewpie doll, even if he’s moved on this offseason.

So, this led me to wondering: Of the top six quarterbacks taken in drafts, regardless of round, how many are great, good, quality backups or total busts? And does it matter, or are the top six always the same relative mix – meaning that two are great or very good, two are good, one is a backup and one is a bust?

Before we go farther, let me explain something: A bust is relative: If you’re a 4^th round pick but were one of the first six quarterbacks taken, then quality backup is fine. If you’re a high first-round pick, and you don’t start, you’re a bust.

Warning: This list is comprehensive. I’m going to review the draft classes from 1998-2021 because I think you need three seasons to evaluate a quarterback’s trajectory. So the last three classes aren’t considered.

Here’s how they’re evaluated:

--- A great quarterback should have multiple Pro Bowls, possibly one or more Super Bowl rings and be considered for the Hall of Fame.

--- A good quarterback should have a long career, decent career passing stats and perhaps one or two Pro Bowls or a Super Bowl ring.

--- A quality backup might be an average or less starter who found a role as a useful backup.

--- A bust plays fewer than five years with no notable achievements.

The quarterbacks named here will display like this: Name ... quarterback position in the draft ... and the evaluation. For example: Josh Allen (3rd, Great). All Statistics are courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, for which the author has a paid subscription.

Ready? Let’s get started.

1998: Yes, we all know the top two Peyton Manning (1^st, Great) and Ryan Leaf (2^nd, Bust), both for their differences on and off the field. But to get to the top six quarterbacks, you must go to the sixth round! The third one off the board? If you said “Charlie Batch (3^rd, Quality backup),” you’re correct … or you might have used Google. Doesn’t matter. Batch was chosen at the end of the second, and he’s remembered as a quality backup. Had he been drafted by a more competent organization – the Lions of the late 90s through early 2000s were anything but – he might have had a better career. Then, Jonathan Quinn in the 3^rd, and he was a bust, though Jacksonville had at least serviceable quarterback play at the time. Brian Griese was also a 3^rd round pick, and I would call him a good player. John Dutton never played a down, so I’m going to cheat and say the seventh quarterback taken – Matt Hasselback – was also good. So, that gives us one great (Manning), two goods (Griese, Hasselback), one quality backup (Batch) and two busts (Quinn, Leaf).

1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith have been discussed ad nauseam. Couch goes into the good category. His arm eventually was too damaged, but he was effective when he played … and he played for a not-so-great Browns’ expansion team. Daunte Culpepper was fourth, and like Couch, was good. He fits into the “what might have been” if his knees didn’t fail. Cade McNown was also a bust, while Shaun King I waver on – quality backup? -- but I can understand if others call him a bust. Brock Huard is also a bust. Eighth on the quarterback list was Aaron Brooks, drafted in the 4^th round, who fits into the good category. So that leaves us with one great, two goods, one quality backup and two busts. No pattern … yet.

2000: All together now: TOM BRADY WAS THE SEVENTH QB TAKEN! That top Six? P.U. Chad Pennington (1^st QB) and Marc Bulger (4^th QB) were both good. After that, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Spergeon Wynn and the immortal Gio Carmazzi are all busts. Not a great year.

2001: OK, this depends on what you think of Michael Vick. He’s arguably the most polarizing player, regardless of position, of the past 25 years … and not because of his on-field talents. You know the rest. I’m going to call him good but accept arguments for great. He could do things no one else could, but he lost two years of his career to prison after organizing dog fights. Obviously, Drew Brees is great. The others: Second-rounders Quincy Carter (3rd, Bust), Marques Tuiasosopo (4th, Bust), Chris Weinke (5^th, quality backup) and Sage Rosenfels (6^th, quality backup).

2002: Nothing great, but four good QBs: David Carr (1^st, Good), Joey Harrington (2^nd, Good), Patrick Ramsey (3^rd, Bust) were all taken in the first round, Josh McCown (4^th, Good) in the third, David Garrard (5^th, Good) in the fourth, and Rohan Davey (Bust, 6^th) also in the fourth.

2003: Carson Palmer (1^st, Great) won’t get into the Hall of Fame, but at his peak, he was great. Next up, Byron Leftwich (2^nd, Good) who might have been better were it not for injury. Then come Kyle Boller and Rex Grossman (3^rd and 4^th, both Busts) in the middle of the first round before you get to Dave Ragone and Chris Simms, both in the third and both busts. One of my favorite players, Seneca Wallace, was seventh and was a good slash type player for eight seasons.

2004: Finally! Now we’re talking about an actual great quarterback class. Eli Manning (1^st, Great), Philip Rivers (2^nd, Great), Ben Roethlisberger (3^rd, Great) before we we get the curious case of JP Losman. As a Bills’ fan, I watched his career get horribly mismanaged by the early drought-era Bills, but he’s a bust by the guidelines here. After that, you have Matt Schaub (5^th, Good) and Luke McCown (6^th, Quality backup).

2005: This draft was the definition of “crapshoot” because much of the bottom of the quarterback draft was better than the top. Alex Smith (1^st, Great) and Aaron Rodgers (2^nd Great) make a good top end. Jason Campbell (3^rd, Good) was better than you might remember, and then we have Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter and David Green, all in the third-round, and all busts. Green never took a snap. But later, there were four good players: Kyle Orton, the seventh quarterback off the board in the 4^th, who played well for the Bears and Bills, then Derek Anderson, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick (because I need an Amish Rifle reference). Those players each had Pro Bowl-caliber seasons. Multiple players drafted before them had much lesser careers, and some never took a meaningful snap.

2006: Hoo, boy. 2006. Vince Young (1^st, Bust) should’ve been something, but he never delivered. Matt Leinart (2^nd, Bust) was not only a poor quarterback, but his attitude was also miserable. Jay Cutler (3^rd, Good) had attitude, but top-level Jay Cutler was good and briefly great. Kellen Clemens (4^th, Quality Backup) and Tarvaris Jackson (5^th, Quality Backup) were both drafted in the 2^nd, and Charlie Whitehurst (6^th, Quality Backup). Brad Smith (8^th) was taken as a quarterback but played wide receiver and returner for most of his career.

2007: This is where it gets ugly. You know where I’m going. First overall was JaMarcus Russell who’s on the Mt. Rushmore of Busts. Next up, Brady Quinn. Bust. Kevin Kolb? Bust. John Beck? Bust. Drew Stanton? Bust. Finally, there’s the guy who threw for the most passing yards of the entire class. If you guessed ... Trent Edwards... you’re right. But you win nothing. Bust. The whole top six busted, and the rest of the draft had no one, either. Yeesh.

2008: Hey, there’s still someone playing from this class, and more on him in a sec. The 2008 class is the apology for 2007. The top of the class features two great players, Matty Ice (Matt Ryan, 1^st) and ... off the retirement couch last year, Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco (2^nd, great). The second round gave us Brian Brohm (3^rd, Bust), Chad Henne (4^th Good); the third produced Kevin O’Connell (5^th, Bust), and the best name ever drafted that never threw an actual pass was chosen in the fifth, John David Booty (6^th, Bust). We even had a Josh Johnson (8^th, Quality Backup) sighting last year. For what it’s worth, 2008 also gave me one example why fans shouldn't be GMs. The amount of talk-radio call-in fans who thought Colt Brennan would be an excellent NFL QB was incredible. Colt and I have as many NFL passing yards in a game that matters.

2009: We start off great here, with Matthew Stafford (1^st, Great). But, after that... yikes. Mark Sanchez (2^nd, Bust) and Josh Freeman (3^rd, Bust) are the other first-round picks. Then we get three of the final six who threw for a combined 193 yards … total: Pat White, Stephen McGee and Rhett Bhomar. Not good.

2010: This one ain’t great at all. You start off OK with Sam Bradford (1^st, Good). He might have been great if he wasn’t in the infirmary all the time. Next up, excellent devotee of Jesus of Nazareth but otherwise not great quarterback, Tim Tebow (2^nd, Bust). Jimmy Clausen (3^rd, Bust) went in the second. Colt McCoy (4^th, Quality Backup) was useful. Then you’ve got Mike Kafka and John Skelton, Bust and Bust.

2011: This one is more interesting, if not exactly great. Cam Newton (1^st, Great) had all the tools, but the injuries in the prime of his career robbed him of what he might have been. Still, when he was healthy, he was awesome. Speaking of guys who couldn’t stay healthy, there was Jake “Hurt” Locker (2^nd , Bust), who had a lot of talent but was injury-prone and Blaine Gabbert (3^rd, Bust), a quality backup who was over-drafted. If he goes in the 2^nd round, everyone says “nice career for a backup." Then there’s Christian Ponder (4^th , Bust) at the top of Round 2. After that, and still paying today, “the Red Rifle,” Andy Dalton (5^th, Great). People are like: Great, Dalton? Really? He had the Bengals in the playoffs when that team was a joke – which they were for far too long – along with multiple Pro Bowls. The last guy is the most controversial after Michael Vick, and that’s Colin Kaepernick (6^th, Good). At his height, he was a good quarterback. And I’ll say it right here: He did not deserve the treatment he got. But football-wise, he was good.

2012: This one is hard to grade. Start with Andrew Luck (1^st, Great) who might have been a Hall of Famer if he hadn’t suffered a career-ending injury. When he played, he was great. Then you get Robert Griffin III (2^nd, Good), a guy I would normally give an incomplete grade. But he had special talent. Ryan Tannehill (3^rd, Good) was an individual always getting the B+ grade, but never getting an A. Brandon Weeden (4^th, Bust) came at the end of the first round, followed by someone I thought drew more grief than he deserved in Brock Osweiler (5th, Quality Backup) in the 2^nd. Russell Wilson (6^th, Great) is certainly great, even if what’s left of him isn’t. For what it’s worth, the next two are Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins.

2013: OK, my fellow Bills' fans, this is where it gets ugly. We’ll start with EJ Manuel (1^st, Bust) who went 13^th overall and watched incompetent coaching and drafting ruin what might have been a decent career. Then we get to Geno Smith (2^nd, Good), who actually may be ... good? Mike Glennon (3^rd, Bust) gets a lot of credit for making money from teams he barely threw for. I guess that makes him smart. After that, it’s Matt Barkley (4^th, quality backup), Ryan Nassib (5^th, Quality Backup) – who had the misfortune of playing behind Eli Manning -- and Tyler Wilson (6^th Bust), who never threw a pass.

2014: We start with Blake Bortles (1^st , Bust) who was over-drafted but not really a bad player. Then there’s Johnny Manziel (2^nd, Bust). Next. On to the curious case of Teddy Bridgewater (3^rd, Good), whom I think might have been better if not for that horrific knee injury. Derek Carr (4^th, Great) has done some good things for some not-so-great teams. I consider him very underrated. Jimmy Garoppolo (5^th, Good) is a quality quarterback who couldn’t stay out of the ice tub. I’m going to excuse Logan Thomas, as he’s primarily been a tight end, and move on to ... Tom Savage (6^th, Bust).

2015: Of all the drafts I examined, this is the most disappointing. A lot of talent, but the quarterbacks never developed it. Start off with Jameis Winston (1^st, Bust), who was raw but had possibilities … and still might. Marcus Mariota (2^nd, Bust) was similar – raw talent that just never baked. The third quarterback taken? Garret Grayson (3^rd, Bust) anyone? Then you have Sean Mannion, Bryce Petty and Brett Hundley. Bust, bust, and bust. The guy who has outperformed his draft status is Trevor Siemian, a 7^th rounder who is a quality backup to this day.

2016: This one starts off well with Jared Goff (1^st, Great). who matured into a very good quarterback, despite some difficulties. Carson Wentz (2^nd, Good) might’ve had the most raw talent, but he’s a head case. Nevertheless, he gets the good rating because his early career was excellent. After that, it’s look out below! Paxton Lynch (3^rd, Bust), Christian Hackenberg (4^th, Bust, and sorry to my friend Tony Foppiano for having to mention him), Jacoby Brissett (5^th, Quality Backup) and Cody Kessler (6^th, Bust). Dak Prescott (8^th, Great) is interesting. FWIW, the eighth quarterback taken in multiple drafts has been better than many of the top six.

2017: Mitchell Trubisky (1^st, Bust) was way over-drafted. It’s a shame, because by all accounts he’s a good guy and a quality backup. Patrick Mahomes (2^nd, Great) is already a Hall of Famer. Deshaun Watson (3^rd, Good) has a raft of off-the field concerns, but his years with the Houston Texans were great. As a Brown, terrible. DeShone Kizer (4^th, Bust) was drafted in the 2^nd. Davis Webb (5^th, Quality Backup) never had many chances because the starting quarterbacks ahead of him were good, but both the Bills and Giants had nothing but good things to say about him. C.J. Beathard (6^th, Quality Backup) continues to hang around.

2018: Buffalo fans, rejoice! Redemption has arrived! Baker Mayfield (1^st, Good) escaped from the quarterback hell that is Cleveland and reworked himself into a good starter with Tampa. Sam Darnold (2nd, Bust) never gained traction in New York. Josh Allen (3^rd, Great) has made the Bills relevant again and exciting in every game they play. He has the most passing yards and TDs of all the quarterbacks from this draft. Josh Rosen (4^th, Bust) ... uh yeah, anyway. Lamar Jackson (5^th, Great) has been a two-time MVP, while Mason Rudolph (6^th, Quality Backup) has shown he has a role on an NFL roster.

2019: Hard one to grade. Kyler Murray (1^st, Good) has the ability to be great, but I’m just not sold yet. Daniel Jones (2^nd, Good) was way over-drafted and has played on mostly awful teams. I just don’t know if either of these guys will be remembered for what they did. After that... yow. Dwayne Haskins passed on and was struggling before that. I’ll leave him off the list. Drew Lock (3^rd, Quality Backup) came next, and then you have Will Grier (4^th, Bust). After that, it’s Ryan Finley (5^th, Bust) and Jarret Stidham (6^th, Quality Backup). Gardner Minshew (10^th , Quality Backup) has proven himself.

2020: The Top 5 here have great early returns, but that could change. We start with hyper-talented and oft-injured Joe Burrow (1^st, Great). If he can stay on the field, he may have a case for the Hall of Fame one day. Tua Tagovailoa (2^nd, Good) produced good early returns, but he has health questions … and, like his team, fades down the stretch. Justin Herbert (3^rd, Great) has been hampered by ineffective coaching, but all the tools and statistics are there. The arrow is pointing up on Jordan Love (4^th, Good) after he spent years as the understudy to Aaron Rodgers. Jalen Hurts (5^th, Great) already has a Super Bowl appearance and unique skill set. Jacob Eason (6^th, Bust) never got anywhere as a 4^th round pick. No one else in the class did, either.

2021: Last class, I promise! Trevor Lawrence (1^st, Good) is both a very good quarterback and a disappointment. He was supposed to be a generational talent. Instead, he’s just been... very good? It feels like he should be better. Zach Wilson (2^nd, Bust) and Trey Lance (3^rd, Bust): Ooof and ooof. Justin Fields (4^th, Good) has moments of greatness with his arms and legs, but I’m not sure he’s good enough with either. We’ll see if Pittsburgh re-signs him. Mac Jones (5^th, Bust) started off well, but his decline coincided with the rest of the Patriots. Finally, we come to Kyle Trask (6^th, Bust) who hasn’t seen the field much.

So, now, what does all this tell us? Let’s go to the stats!

SUMMARY: What was the worst quarterback class of the last 25 years? Well, both 2007 and 2015 were historically bad, and they tied for rock bottom. And the best three? Right now, 2020 is the answer, but there’s recency bias given the high early returns. That makes it likely to change. Of the rest, 2004, 2012, and 2018 are the best, and that makes sense, given the overall talent.

As for how likely a GM is to nail a quarterback pick? Not surprisingly, 49 percent – or half -- of the top six quarterbacks in any class busted. The next highest percentage was Good with 21 percent, followed by Great with 17.5 percent. Quality Backup was last at 12.5%.

Conclusion: Even when drafting a quarterback early, it’s still difficult to find a great one. But what's worse is that you’re just as likely to whiff no matter what the round.