Summary

• Ballerina will expand on the John Wick universe with new characters and storylines, but faces potential competition from the movie Red Sparrow.
• The film's plot similarities to Red Sparrow, a thriller starring Jennifer Lawrence, could impact Ballerina's success despite the potential for expansion in the John Wick franchise.
• While Red Sparrow faced lackluster critical reception, Ballerina's connection to the John Wick series gives it an advantage in tone and market appeal.

The John Wick spin-off Ballerina looks set to expand on the extensive lore established in the main series, incorporating new characters and storylines, yet the movie faces a surprising threat from a previous genre hit. Starring Ana de Armas as the titular dancing assassin, the movie will include elements from the main John Wick story, owing to its place in the franchise timeline. However, other aspects of the film's plot suggest connections to other projects beyond the John Wick universe – one of which may pose a particular problem.

As the first film spin-off in the John Wick universe, Ballerina has the potential to significantly expand the franchise after John Wick: Chapter 4's seemingly definitive end. While it's still unconfirmed whether John Wick himself is actually dead, the franchise will have to move beyond star Keanu Reeves at some point in order to continue. Following a new protagonist in the form of de Armas' Rooney is the ideal way to do this. However, although Ballerina's plot remains under wraps, what little is known about the film suggests that one of its biggest obstacles to success actually has nothing to do with the wider John Wick series.

Ballerina Sounds A Lot Like Jennifer Lawrence's Red Sparrow

Ballerina's combination of a dancing assassin, a clandestine society of undercover operatives, and a female protagonist who embarks on a dangerous mission for the good of her family bears remarkable similarities with Jennifer Lawrence's unsung 2018 thriller, Red Sparrow. The movie, which made $150 million at the box office, received mixed reviews from critics – scoring just 45% on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes. However, while this is much less impressive than the rest of the John Wick series, the movie has clear narrative connections to Ballerina's premise.

Red Sparrow stars Lawrence as a ballerina, who after witnessing an assassination is forced to choose between death and becoming a "sparrow" – a specialist undercover operative with expertise in extracting information. Although not as superpowered as many of the assassins in John Wick, Lawrence's Dominika Egorova is shown to be more than capable of handling herself, killing several people throughout the story. Although Red Sparrow is less stylized than the John Wick series, the similarities it shares with Ballerina's planned story are more than enough to warrant comparison.

Red Sparrow's Failure Is A Potential Problem For Ballerina

Despite making $150 million at the global box office, other aspects of Red Sparrow's performance are a potentially worrying indicator for Ballerina. The movie was made for $69 million, meaning that it barely made enough to break even. Considering the upward trajectory of the John Wick films, which have collectively made over $1 billion on equally mid-tier budgets (the most expensive being John Wick: Chapter 4's $100 million), a similar return for Ballerina would be a disappointing precedent ahead of other potential spin-offs.

Likewise, Red Sparrow's critical performance could be a concern, considering the film's narrative similarities. Although Jennifer Lawrence's performance was widely praised, many critics felt that the rest of the movie was overly complicated and failed to come together. The fact that Ballerina faces the dual challenge of trying to tell its own story while simultaneously acknowledging established events in the wider John Wick universe could produce a similar outcome, with complexity already proving to be an Achilles heel within Ballerina's genre.

Red Sparrow Creates An Opportunity For Ballerina

There's no doubt that having a ballet-based action thriller fail to make much of an impact culturally, critically, or commercially is a worrying precedent ahead of Ballerina's proposed 2025 release. However, despite the potential pitfalls demonstrated by Red Sparrow's underwhelming performance, the movie also suggests that there is an opportunity for the film to succeed. Despite middling reviews and a generally bleak story, the fact remains that Red Sparrow still managed to break even – highlighting that there is an appetite for the type of story both it and Ballerina want to tell.

In some ways, the fact that Red Sparrow did not establish itself as the definitive dance-inspired assassin movie means that there is still a gap in the market for the John Wick spin-off to fill. Had Red Sparrow been an overwhelming success, it's likely that Ballerina would have been forced to find a different schtick for its main character – despite ballet's connection to the rest of the John Wick series, as established in Chapter 3. As it stands, Ballerina can recycle the trope established in the Jennifer Lawrence movie without risking accusations of copying another movie's success.

Ballerina's John Wick Connection Can Improve On Red Sparrow's Formula

Although Red Sparrow does present a potential problem for Ballerina, the spin-off's established franchise connection gives it a good chance of success. As confirmed by the critical consensus, the main problems with Red Sparrow were its dark tone and overly complex espionage story. While the John Wick series does contain some dark themes, it is generally a much more lighthearted franchise, with an emphasis on stylish action rather than grueling torture and sexual violence. As proven by previous Wick films, this is a comparatively popular approach at the box office.

The fact that Ballerina will be set within John Wick's deliberately tongue-in-cheek world of secret assassins – complete with gun-toting sommeliers and aristocratic pretensions – means that it already has a tonal advantage compared to Red Sparrow. As a rule, dour spy dramas that revel in extreme violence can struggle to perform at the box office. The John Wick series has proven time and time again that hyperbolic, highly choreographed action sequences are much more appealing to audiences – a trend Ballerina has every chance of continuing.

The narrative similarities between Ballerina and Red Sparrow will make a comparison between the two movies an interesting exercise, once the de Armas movie comes out. However, the clear tonal differences between the 2018 Lawrence movie and the rest of the John Wick series suggest that the spin-off is already at an advantage. Ballerina may have some obstacles to overcome, but the success of the pre-existing franchise suggests that it has a great precedent to follow.