The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), initiated by the US to encourage regional nations to diversify their trade away from China, faces challenges, as indicated by a report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The study reveals that, apart from Japan and the US, the targeted nations have deepened their reliance on Chinese goods over the past decade. Despite some signs of Australia shifting imports away from China, the country remains heavily dependent on China as a key market. China's economic growth continues to be a driving force in regional trade, with the recent Regional and Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement expected to further accelerate integration, sidelining the US from this process.
Australia has conducted multiple studies exploring the feasibility of diversifying trade away from China, all concluding that no other markets can replace China for its commodity exports. The concept of diversification to Southeast Asia is viewed as "China plus." The article discusses the possibility of China joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), originally designed to enhance US integration with Asia while excluding China. With the US opting out, China sees an opportunity to deepen its regional integration at the expense of the US. However, uncertainties persist about China adhering to CPTPP trade rules.
In summary, the IPEF's aim to shift trade away from China encounters obstacles due to deepening economic ties between Indo-Pacific nations and China. China's economic growth and regional agreements like RCEP drive increased integration, while the US, by abstaining from new trade agreements, isolates itself from regional integration. Despite Australia's exploration of diversification, the conclusion remains that China plays a crucial role in its commodity exports. The potential inclusion of China in the CPTPP raises questions about its adherence to trade rules.
印太經濟繁榮框架是美國為了鼓勵區域國家多元化貿易,遠離中國而啟動的,但根據彼得森國際經濟研究所的一份報告,它面臨著挑戰。該研究顯示,除了日本和美國外,印太經濟繁榮框架的目標國家在過去十年中加深了對中國製造商品的依賴。儘管澳大利亞顯示出一些將進口轉移出中國的跡象,但該國仍然在市場上極度依賴中國。中國的經濟增長仍然是區域貿易的驅動力,而最近的區域全面經濟夥伴關係協議預計將進一步加速區域一體化,將美國排除在這一過程之外。
澳大利亞進行了多次研究,探討了遠離中國多元化貿易的可能性,但所有研究都得出結論:其他市場無法取代中國成為其商品出口的市場。多元化至東南亞的概念被視為「中國外加」。文章討論了中國加入全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴協議的可能性,這一協議最初是由奧巴馬政府設計,旨在促進美國與亞洲的一體化,同時排除中國。由於美國選擇不參與,中國看到了一個機會,可以加深其區域一體化,而代價是美國。然而,人們對中國是否遵守全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴協議貿易規則仍存在疑問。
總的來說,印太經濟繁榮框架旨在將貿易轉移出中國,但由於印太地區國家與中國之間經濟聯繫的加深,面臨著困難。中國的經濟增長和區域全面經濟夥伴關係等區域協議推動了區域一體化的增長,而美國通過放棄新的貿易協議,使其在區域一體化的過程中與世隔絕。儘管澳大利亞正在探索多元化,但結論仍然是中國在其商品出口中發揮著至關重要的作用。中國有可能加入全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴協議引發了對其是否遵守貿易規則的疑慮。