I have the Phillies winning 56 percent of simulations which implies a moneyline price of -127. I want to continue to pick on Blake Snell who has really struggled with his 4-seam fastball (94 MPH average exit velocity) and changeup (.504 actual and .437 xwOBA). The park shift will help Phillies pitching in this matchup.

My simulations have the Yankees winning 56 percent in this matchup which implies a money line price of -127. Rodon should benefit from the pitching environment in San Diego, and the Padres have really struggled against left-handed pitching ranking just 24th in wOBA. The Yankees have a lineup edge and a sizable bullpen edge. Both teams are dealing with cross-country travel as the Padres return home from their roadtrip.

I played the Royals +105 on SuperBook as my model has them winning 53 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -113. This is a great pitching matchup with Skubal vs. Ragans, but I give the Royals the edge in the day game at home.

Logan Gilbert has been decent for Seattle but largely benefits from the friendly pitching environment at home. Gilbert's road splits put him closer to league average than elite. Marcus Stroman should keep the ball on the ground enough, and possibly pick up an extra strikeout or two against the Mariners who strikeout the most in the league against right-handed pitching. I have the Yankees wining 59 percent of simulations which suggests this line should be -144.

I like this buy low spot on the Astros and Hunter Brown. I have Houston winning 54 percent of simulations which implies -118. The Astros are off to a slow start to the season but they're still 7th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. I have concerns with Peralta throwing his fastball over 50% of the time considering the .361xwOBA and double digit barrel rate.

I played the Yankees +100 on SuperBook. I make them 54% winners against Pablo Lopez in these conditions which implies this money line should be -117. Marcus Stroman should be in line for a quality start with winds blowing in and low humidity in Minnesota.

I played New York at -125 on SuperBook. I have the Yankees winning 59 percent of simulations which suggests this money line should be -144. Paddack has been decent for Minnesota so far, but I have concerns with his slider (.373 xwOBA) and his changeup (.399 xwOBA) against the power lineup the Yankees will run out there. Rodon has been great and the bullpen is rested after a day off. I'm on the Yankees.

I'm playing the Royals again on Friday at (-108) as my sims have them winning 56 percent of the time with Alec Marsh vs. Griffin Canning, which implies a moneyline of -127. Canning has struggled with his fastball, and the Royals don't strikeout much vs. RHP (2nd fewest in MLB at just 17.9%).

Big travel spot for both teams as the Angels are traveling from Pittsburgh (6-game roadtrip) and the Royals from Kansas City. Detmers has been okay but KC projects as a strong hitting team against lefty fastballs. I make the Royals 55 percent winners which implies a moneyline of -122.

I have the Royals winning 59 percent of simulations with Brady Singer vs. Joe Ross which implies a money line price of -144. Lock it in at -120 on FanDuel.

I make the Rangers 61 percent winners, which implies a money line price of -156 in this matchup with Andrew Heaney vs. Alex Wood. Oakland has played well so far but they're getting too much respect here with Alex Wood on the mound who has really struggled with his sinking fastball and changeup this season.

I played the Dodgers (-105) on Superbook. I make LA 55 percent winners, which implies this line should be -122. 40-year old Charlie Morton is vulnerable to left-handed hitters, and the Dodgers have a few of the best in the game. Back the Dodgers as short home favorites.

I like the Red Sox at -104 (FanDuel) or -105 (Caesars) as I have Boston winning 55 percent of simulations, which implies a money line price of -122.

I have the Cubs winning 57 percent of simulations in this matchup with Shota Imanaga vs. José Buttó, which implies a money line price of -133. Buttó has largely over performed so far as his xwOBA is over 60 points worse than the actual wOBA, and the hard hit rate is at 50 percent. I'm on the Cubs.