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The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma
A warning of the unprecedented risks that AI and other fast-developing technologies pose to global order, and how we might contain them while we have the chance—from a co-founder of the pioneering artificial intelligence company DeepMind
We are approaching a critical threshold in the history of our species. Everything is about to change.
Soon you will live surrounded by AIs. They will organise your life, operate your business, and run core government services. You will live in a world of DNA printers and quantum computers, engineered pathogens and autonomous weapons, robot assistants and abundant energy.
None of us are prepared.
As co-founder of the pioneering AI company DeepMind, part of Google, Mustafa Suleyman has been at the centre of this revolution. The coming decade, he argues, will be defined by this wave of powerful, fast-proliferating new technologies.
In The Coming Wave , Suleyman shows how these forces will create immense prosperity but also threaten the nation-state, the foundation of global order. As our fragile governments sleepwalk into disaster, we face an existential unprecedented harms on one side, the threat of overbearing surveillance on the other.
Can we forge a narrow path between catastrophe and dystopia?
We are approaching a critical threshold in the history of our species. Everything is about to change.
Soon you will live surrounded by AIs. They will organise your life, operate your business, and run core government services. You will live in a world of DNA printers and quantum computers, engineered pathogens and autonomous weapons, robot assistants and abundant energy.
None of us are prepared.
As co-founder of the pioneering AI company DeepMind, part of Google, Mustafa Suleyman has been at the centre of this revolution. The coming decade, he argues, will be defined by this wave of powerful, fast-proliferating new technologies.
In The Coming Wave , Suleyman shows how these forces will create immense prosperity but also threaten the nation-state, the foundation of global order. As our fragile governments sleepwalk into disaster, we face an existential unprecedented harms on one side, the threat of overbearing surveillance on the other.
Can we forge a narrow path between catastrophe and dystopia?
332 pages, Hardcover
First published September 5, 2023
About the author
Mustafa Suleyman
2 books138 followersMustafa Suleyman is the co-founder and CEO of Inflection AI. Previously he co-founded DeepMind, one of the world’s leading AI companies. After a decade at DeepMind, Suleyman became vice president of AI product management and AI policy at Google.
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September 18, 2023
Also at my blog.
This book describes itself as the work of ‘the ultimate insider’. This seems rather apt as it provides us with a glimpse of what the technocratic chattering class are saying about the current AI moment. Unfortunately it doesn’t provide us with insight into how this current moment will play out as the view from inside appears to be is quite poor, lacking the perspective need to really grapple with this question.
We might summarise the book along the following lines:
- technology comes in waves and is without bounds;
- many current technologies—but primarily Large Language Models (LLMs) and synthetic biology—represent the coming wave and will consequently reshape the world; and
- its important for the right people to be in charge, to ensure that technology is a force for good rather then evil, and we can do this by containment.
There’s a lot here to unpack, which is challenging to do while reading as it’s largely unreferenced (though there are a few endnotes) so the only way to distinguish between ambit claim and documented fact is via prior knowledge. Does 3-D printing, for example, enable us to slash the time and cost required to construct a home? (No it doesn’t, but it does enable us to to create a nice curvilinear wall, should we want one.) Or will AI revolutionise drug discovery? (Unfortunately the choke points in that process are target choice and toxicology, not computational biology.)
The first misconception in the book is likely the (unfortunately) common assumption that technology (application) follows science (theory), when the reverse is more usual.
The history of technology is a complex, messy, and fascinating story of practitioners trying new things and building on the work others as they strive to address the problems in front of them, of steady incremental development. The idea of the steam engine, for example, dates back to somewhere between 15 and 30 B.C., and was made practical by the tinkering of Newcomen (an ironmonger), Stephenson (a mining engineer), and then Watt (a tool maker), a long story of trial and error that resulted in the Industrial Revolution. Thermodynamics, the theory of steam, was developed later, to try and understand why these machines worked.
One interesting implication of the bottom-up, emergent nature of technology is that technological waves—covered in the first part of the book—represent how we feel technology affecting us, rather than waves of technology development. Development is (more or less) constant, but the effects of newly developed technology are not. The power loom is a great example as the technology that triggered its creation, the flying shuttle, is nothing special when compared to the previous tweaks to weaving, not much more than a couple of boxes and a spool, but it was the final piece of a puzzle that enabled looms to transition from human to mechanical sources of power. Moving to mechanical power improved productivity by a factor of 2.5 as weavers could attend 2.5 looms rather than one, destroyed the putting-out approach to production (and the weaves traditional way of life).
The current anxiety over technology in general (and AI in particular) is not a sign that technology development has accelerated, is out of control. Nor should it be taken as a sign that the technologies of our current moment are more potent than those of the past. The opposite might actually be case, with measures such as productivity growth (which is driven by both population growth and the potency of newly developed technologies) persistently down. These technologies are surprising and new, we don’t know what to think of them, and it’s easy to let our imaginations get away from us. We forget that technology does have limits. In the case of AI, the narrow intelligence of LLMs is unlikely to sit on a continuum with generally intelligence. LLMs are powerful tools, but history tells us that there is unlikely to be a smooth developmental path from the LLMs of today to Bostrom’s paperclip maximizer. Similarly with synthetic biology et al.
Perhaps that problem here is that we insist on engaging with technology as a noun, rather than a verb. Technology is best approached as a form of human action, rather than as a ‘thing’. For example, current concerns that workplace monitoring technology is driving us to a dystopia are ignoring the humans commissioning and developing this technology. It is the actions of these humans that should concern us, as it is their actions that will result in the dystopia we fear. New technology creates new possibilities, and it’s how we approach these possibilities that determines if a technology is a force for good or evil. This is why the history of technology is also a story of how communities and societies negotiate within themselves how a technology should be used. While technology is an important factor in public issues, nontechnical factors always take precedence.
Given that The coming wave assumes that technology comes in waves and these waves are driven by the insiders, the solution it proposes is containment—governments should determine (via regulation) who gets to develop the technology, and what uses they should put the technology to. The assumption seems to be that governments can control access to natural choke points in the technology. One figure the book offers is how around 80% of the sand used in semiconductors comes from a single mine—control the mine and you control much of that aspect of the industry. This is not true though. Nuclear containment, for example, relies more on peer pressure between nation states, than regulation per se. It’s quite possible to build a reactor or bomb in your backyard. The more you scale up these efforts, the more it’s likely that the international community will notice and press you to stop. Squeezing on one of these choke points it more likely to move the activity somewhere else, then enable you to control it.
The coming wave is interesting as it enables us to peak into the conversations of AI industry insiders and get some sense of what they think and feel of the current AI moment. Unfortunately the view from inside is quite limited, and doesn’t match the well documented history of how societies develop and adopt technology, and the predictions the book offers are quite wrong. The prescriptions are also weak, and unlikely to hold back a coming wave.
At its heart this is a book by and insider arguing that someone is going to develop this world-changing technology, and it should be them.
This book describes itself as the work of ‘the ultimate insider’. This seems rather apt as it provides us with a glimpse of what the technocratic chattering class are saying about the current AI moment. Unfortunately it doesn’t provide us with insight into how this current moment will play out as the view from inside appears to be is quite poor, lacking the perspective need to really grapple with this question.
We might summarise the book along the following lines:
- technology comes in waves and is without bounds;
- many current technologies—but primarily Large Language Models (LLMs) and synthetic biology—represent the coming wave and will consequently reshape the world; and
- its important for the right people to be in charge, to ensure that technology is a force for good rather then evil, and we can do this by containment.
There’s a lot here to unpack, which is challenging to do while reading as it’s largely unreferenced (though there are a few endnotes) so the only way to distinguish between ambit claim and documented fact is via prior knowledge. Does 3-D printing, for example, enable us to slash the time and cost required to construct a home? (No it doesn’t, but it does enable us to to create a nice curvilinear wall, should we want one.) Or will AI revolutionise drug discovery? (Unfortunately the choke points in that process are target choice and toxicology, not computational biology.)
The first misconception in the book is likely the (unfortunately) common assumption that technology (application) follows science (theory), when the reverse is more usual.
The history of technology is a complex, messy, and fascinating story of practitioners trying new things and building on the work others as they strive to address the problems in front of them, of steady incremental development. The idea of the steam engine, for example, dates back to somewhere between 15 and 30 B.C., and was made practical by the tinkering of Newcomen (an ironmonger), Stephenson (a mining engineer), and then Watt (a tool maker), a long story of trial and error that resulted in the Industrial Revolution. Thermodynamics, the theory of steam, was developed later, to try and understand why these machines worked.
One interesting implication of the bottom-up, emergent nature of technology is that technological waves—covered in the first part of the book—represent how we feel technology affecting us, rather than waves of technology development. Development is (more or less) constant, but the effects of newly developed technology are not. The power loom is a great example as the technology that triggered its creation, the flying shuttle, is nothing special when compared to the previous tweaks to weaving, not much more than a couple of boxes and a spool, but it was the final piece of a puzzle that enabled looms to transition from human to mechanical sources of power. Moving to mechanical power improved productivity by a factor of 2.5 as weavers could attend 2.5 looms rather than one, destroyed the putting-out approach to production (and the weaves traditional way of life).
The current anxiety over technology in general (and AI in particular) is not a sign that technology development has accelerated, is out of control. Nor should it be taken as a sign that the technologies of our current moment are more potent than those of the past. The opposite might actually be case, with measures such as productivity growth (which is driven by both population growth and the potency of newly developed technologies) persistently down. These technologies are surprising and new, we don’t know what to think of them, and it’s easy to let our imaginations get away from us. We forget that technology does have limits. In the case of AI, the narrow intelligence of LLMs is unlikely to sit on a continuum with generally intelligence. LLMs are powerful tools, but history tells us that there is unlikely to be a smooth developmental path from the LLMs of today to Bostrom’s paperclip maximizer. Similarly with synthetic biology et al.
Perhaps that problem here is that we insist on engaging with technology as a noun, rather than a verb. Technology is best approached as a form of human action, rather than as a ‘thing’. For example, current concerns that workplace monitoring technology is driving us to a dystopia are ignoring the humans commissioning and developing this technology. It is the actions of these humans that should concern us, as it is their actions that will result in the dystopia we fear. New technology creates new possibilities, and it’s how we approach these possibilities that determines if a technology is a force for good or evil. This is why the history of technology is also a story of how communities and societies negotiate within themselves how a technology should be used. While technology is an important factor in public issues, nontechnical factors always take precedence.
Given that The coming wave assumes that technology comes in waves and these waves are driven by the insiders, the solution it proposes is containment—governments should determine (via regulation) who gets to develop the technology, and what uses they should put the technology to. The assumption seems to be that governments can control access to natural choke points in the technology. One figure the book offers is how around 80% of the sand used in semiconductors comes from a single mine—control the mine and you control much of that aspect of the industry. This is not true though. Nuclear containment, for example, relies more on peer pressure between nation states, than regulation per se. It’s quite possible to build a reactor or bomb in your backyard. The more you scale up these efforts, the more it’s likely that the international community will notice and press you to stop. Squeezing on one of these choke points it more likely to move the activity somewhere else, then enable you to control it.
The coming wave is interesting as it enables us to peak into the conversations of AI industry insiders and get some sense of what they think and feel of the current AI moment. Unfortunately the view from inside is quite limited, and doesn’t match the well documented history of how societies develop and adopt technology, and the predictions the book offers are quite wrong. The prescriptions are also weak, and unlikely to hold back a coming wave.
At its heart this is a book by and insider arguing that someone is going to develop this world-changing technology, and it should be them.
October 7, 2023
Mustafa Suleyman was a cofounder of Deep Mind and is the current CEO of Inflection AI.
The Coming Wave is Suleyman‘s warning regarding the dangers that await humanity at the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology (SB).
Suleyman argues (very convincingly) how EXTRAORDINARILY FUCKIN DANGEROUS it will be when AI/SB tech enable pretty much anyone to create shit like novel deadly viruses🦠
Suleyman asserts (also quite convincingly) that we NEED to contain theses technologies, like YESTERDAY 😳
Suleyman speculates (much much less convincingly) regarding HOW to contain theses technologies 😱
Every technological advance co-creates a disaster.
Agriculture co-created crop failure.
Rail transport co-created the train-wreck.
Google maps co-created me not being able to get to the grocery store without a smartphone 🤔
Additionally technological disruptions can co-create massive disruptions in extant social order (for better or for worse).
Gunpowder made stone garrisons obsolete. That plus capitalism and industrialization ended centuries of European feudalism and the rise of nation states.
WWI & WWII (and all of the other mid century Cold War era conflicts) happened in the vacuum, as communism, democracy and fascism duked it out for global domination.
Fortunately (depending, of course, on who you ask) liberal democracy eked out a narrow victory over fascism (for now).
Suleyman opines that the AI revolution may be MORE consequential than any prior technological revolution.
According to Suleyman this “coming wave” of disruption is cresting so high above our heads that we don’t even know what’s about to hit us, and when it comes crashing down, we’re going to be swimming (drowning) in the wreckage.
Democracy may survive.
But there are no guarantees.
Think of the recent and near term consequences of perfectly realistic deep fake media used to proliferate conspiracy theory, and other types of misinformation.
How can a democracy sustain the loss of reliable media?
This is only one (minor and foreseeable) example of the confusion and mischief that is about to be our new normal.
That is, unless we do something.
And like now.
But what and how?
Suleyman argues that the current global system of competing nation states will be inadequate to regulate AI.
This is clearly the case, for various obvious reasons.
It’s a NUCLEAR ARMS RACE inside a GOLD RUSH.
Losing ground on AI would mean MASSIVE tactical and financial disadvantages. No nation or corporation would (or could) cede ground in that race and remain viable.
It’s a BIONIC TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS problem.
We can’t honestly expect a bunch of rational self interested entities (how ever rational) to self regulate something with such ENORMOUS stakes.
Forget about the invisible hand.
Talk to the dead hand 🖐️
Rational self interest just won’t cut it.
It’s a global scale, systemic problem.
And we need a global scale system of regulation.
And so far…
No dice 🎲 🎲
You may counter that we have a global system of nuclear regulation and deterrence. Suleyman argues (convincingly) that nuclear regulatitoy systems are a poor model for AI.
Nuclear weapons are cost prohibitive.
Where as AI and computer tech is CHEAP.
Furthermore.
AI is becoming exponentially more powerful and cheaper by the day. Additionally, as AI becomes increasingly self improving, this equation will CERTAINLY accelerate.
Exponentially.
Given all that, Suleyman asserts that we DESPERATELY need to regulate AI (particularly the more dangerous forms e.g. the kind that enables “bad actors” like mass shooters and terrorists) to kill millions of people, with relative ease.
For instance, what if the Columbine shooters used a swarm of inexpensive armed and autonomous drones. What if Ted Kazinsky had DNA modification capabilities on his desktop.
But that’s (certainly not) the only issue.
Human/tech entanglement theory posits that once people adapt a technology, we rapidly become dependent on that same technology. For instance. Once we gave up the hunter/gatherer life to settle down and grow crops. The population exploded. And the old hunter/gatherer ways could no longer sustain the larger populations. At that point our fate became entangled with agrarian technology.
Fast forward to the present, and humans are so entangled with information technology, that a mass tech failure would certainly mean mass death, economic collapse, and untold mayhem. By that logic, we are already entangled with AI.
What happens when AI becomes self improving, and as such becomes a million, a billion, a trillion times more powerful overnight, and nobody understands how it works, and we’re UTTERLY dependent on it for EVERYTHING?
If that boggles your mind.
That’s ok.
But freezing up and doing absolutely nothing makes unfettered nuclear proliferation seem safe in comparison.
Anyway.
If you’re not concerned/excited about the next 30 years.
You probably haven’t read this.
And you probably should.
5/5 Stars ⭐️
The Coming Wave is Suleyman‘s warning regarding the dangers that await humanity at the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology (SB).
Suleyman argues (very convincingly) how EXTRAORDINARILY FUCKIN DANGEROUS it will be when AI/SB tech enable pretty much anyone to create shit like novel deadly viruses🦠
Suleyman asserts (also quite convincingly) that we NEED to contain theses technologies, like YESTERDAY 😳
Suleyman speculates (much much less convincingly) regarding HOW to contain theses technologies 😱
Every technological advance co-creates a disaster.
Agriculture co-created crop failure.
Rail transport co-created the train-wreck.
Google maps co-created me not being able to get to the grocery store without a smartphone 🤔
Additionally technological disruptions can co-create massive disruptions in extant social order (for better or for worse).
Gunpowder made stone garrisons obsolete. That plus capitalism and industrialization ended centuries of European feudalism and the rise of nation states.
WWI & WWII (and all of the other mid century Cold War era conflicts) happened in the vacuum, as communism, democracy and fascism duked it out for global domination.
Fortunately (depending, of course, on who you ask) liberal democracy eked out a narrow victory over fascism (for now).
Suleyman opines that the AI revolution may be MORE consequential than any prior technological revolution.
According to Suleyman this “coming wave” of disruption is cresting so high above our heads that we don’t even know what’s about to hit us, and when it comes crashing down, we’re going to be swimming (drowning) in the wreckage.
Democracy may survive.
But there are no guarantees.
Think of the recent and near term consequences of perfectly realistic deep fake media used to proliferate conspiracy theory, and other types of misinformation.
How can a democracy sustain the loss of reliable media?
This is only one (minor and foreseeable) example of the confusion and mischief that is about to be our new normal.
That is, unless we do something.
And like now.
But what and how?
Suleyman argues that the current global system of competing nation states will be inadequate to regulate AI.
This is clearly the case, for various obvious reasons.
It’s a NUCLEAR ARMS RACE inside a GOLD RUSH.
Losing ground on AI would mean MASSIVE tactical and financial disadvantages. No nation or corporation would (or could) cede ground in that race and remain viable.
It’s a BIONIC TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS problem.
We can’t honestly expect a bunch of rational self interested entities (how ever rational) to self regulate something with such ENORMOUS stakes.
Forget about the invisible hand.
Talk to the dead hand 🖐️
Rational self interest just won’t cut it.
It’s a global scale, systemic problem.
And we need a global scale system of regulation.
And so far…
No dice 🎲 🎲
You may counter that we have a global system of nuclear regulation and deterrence. Suleyman argues (convincingly) that nuclear regulatitoy systems are a poor model for AI.
Nuclear weapons are cost prohibitive.
Where as AI and computer tech is CHEAP.
Furthermore.
AI is becoming exponentially more powerful and cheaper by the day. Additionally, as AI becomes increasingly self improving, this equation will CERTAINLY accelerate.
Exponentially.
Given all that, Suleyman asserts that we DESPERATELY need to regulate AI (particularly the more dangerous forms e.g. the kind that enables “bad actors” like mass shooters and terrorists) to kill millions of people, with relative ease.
For instance, what if the Columbine shooters used a swarm of inexpensive armed and autonomous drones. What if Ted Kazinsky had DNA modification capabilities on his desktop.
But that’s (certainly not) the only issue.
Human/tech entanglement theory posits that once people adapt a technology, we rapidly become dependent on that same technology. For instance. Once we gave up the hunter/gatherer life to settle down and grow crops. The population exploded. And the old hunter/gatherer ways could no longer sustain the larger populations. At that point our fate became entangled with agrarian technology.
Fast forward to the present, and humans are so entangled with information technology, that a mass tech failure would certainly mean mass death, economic collapse, and untold mayhem. By that logic, we are already entangled with AI.
What happens when AI becomes self improving, and as such becomes a million, a billion, a trillion times more powerful overnight, and nobody understands how it works, and we’re UTTERLY dependent on it for EVERYTHING?
If that boggles your mind.
That’s ok.
But freezing up and doing absolutely nothing makes unfettered nuclear proliferation seem safe in comparison.
Anyway.
If you’re not concerned/excited about the next 30 years.
You probably haven’t read this.
And you probably should.
5/5 Stars ⭐️
March 6, 2024
Suleyman intends to write about the positive and negative consequences of the unavoidable rise of AI and biotech, and how this wave can be channeled to the benefit of societies - and while I support the idea that an expert (which he, as an AI entrepreneur, undoubtedly is) writes for the masses that will be affected, but lack theoretical knowledge, I also support editors helping authors to make a concise argument. This book is so rambling and repetitive, plus it dwells on an endless supply of needless comparisons, that the whole message gets fully buried under, you know, stuff. The text can't walk the line between remaining understandable for the laymen and having interesting points to make; instead, it's so wordy and obsessed with tangents, it really started to infuriate me.
So unfortunate, because the topic is fascinating.
So unfortunate, because the topic is fascinating.
November 26, 2023
This book attempts to bridge the dense realms of technology and societal power dynamics. Now, before you yawn and click away, let me assure you: this isn’t just another heavy-handed technocratic manifesto. Suleyman takes a nuanced approach. However, like many ambitious endeavors, this book nails it in some places and stumbles in others.
The Good:
Narrative Structure - The book flows. I've waded through plenty of tech-focused literature that feels like assembling IKEA furniture with missing instructions. Not here. Suleyman’s got a storyteller’s flair. Through a blend of real-world anecdotes, theoretical analysis, and thought experiments, he crafts a narrative that even someone far removed from Silicon Valley can appreciate.
Power Dynamics - The exploration of the relationship between tech giants, governments, and individuals is where the book shines. Suleyman offers some fresh takes on how technology amplifies or distorts power. I particularly enjoyed his insights into the socio-political ramifications of AI. The potential for algorithm-driven surveillance states? Chilling, but thought-provoking.
Accessibility - Hats off to Suleyman for not drowning the readers in jargon. Even if you're someone who thinks Python is just a snake, you can still find value in this book. The author makes it a point to break down complex concepts into bite-sized, relatable tidbits.
The Bad:
Predictions & Prescriptions - Here’s where I think “The Coming Wave” stumbles. While Suleyman's diagnostics are often on point, his predictions for the future of tech and society can sometimes drift into the territory of the obvious or even the clichéd. His solutions, too, occasionally feel a tad too idealistic, without addressing the nitty-gritty of real-world implementation.
Depth vs. Breadth - This is a dilemma many writers face. And in his bid to make the book accessible, I felt Suleyman sometimes traded depth for breadth. There were moments when I wished he’d lingered a bit longer, diving deeper into a particular topic rather than rushing onto the next.
Lack of Dissenting Voices - The book presents a pretty cohesive argument, but I couldn’t help feeling like some counterpoints were conspicuously missing. A more holistic picture might have been painted by including a wider array of voices, especially those critical of the tech industry or holding contrasting views.
This book is definitely not a beach read (unless you’re the kind who pairs neural networks with your piña colada). It's ambitious, and for the most part, it delivers. If you’re looking to explore the intersection of technology, power, and the challenges of the 21st century, this is a solid pick.
Would I recommend it? Sure, but maybe not as the definitive text on the subject. Think of it more as a conversational starter – a way to get those techy wheels in your brain turning. Whether you agree with Suleyman or not, it'll definitely leave you with something to ponder.
The Good:
Narrative Structure - The book flows. I've waded through plenty of tech-focused literature that feels like assembling IKEA furniture with missing instructions. Not here. Suleyman’s got a storyteller’s flair. Through a blend of real-world anecdotes, theoretical analysis, and thought experiments, he crafts a narrative that even someone far removed from Silicon Valley can appreciate.
Power Dynamics - The exploration of the relationship between tech giants, governments, and individuals is where the book shines. Suleyman offers some fresh takes on how technology amplifies or distorts power. I particularly enjoyed his insights into the socio-political ramifications of AI. The potential for algorithm-driven surveillance states? Chilling, but thought-provoking.
Accessibility - Hats off to Suleyman for not drowning the readers in jargon. Even if you're someone who thinks Python is just a snake, you can still find value in this book. The author makes it a point to break down complex concepts into bite-sized, relatable tidbits.
The Bad:
Predictions & Prescriptions - Here’s where I think “The Coming Wave” stumbles. While Suleyman's diagnostics are often on point, his predictions for the future of tech and society can sometimes drift into the territory of the obvious or even the clichéd. His solutions, too, occasionally feel a tad too idealistic, without addressing the nitty-gritty of real-world implementation.
Depth vs. Breadth - This is a dilemma many writers face. And in his bid to make the book accessible, I felt Suleyman sometimes traded depth for breadth. There were moments when I wished he’d lingered a bit longer, diving deeper into a particular topic rather than rushing onto the next.
Lack of Dissenting Voices - The book presents a pretty cohesive argument, but I couldn’t help feeling like some counterpoints were conspicuously missing. A more holistic picture might have been painted by including a wider array of voices, especially those critical of the tech industry or holding contrasting views.
This book is definitely not a beach read (unless you’re the kind who pairs neural networks with your piña colada). It's ambitious, and for the most part, it delivers. If you’re looking to explore the intersection of technology, power, and the challenges of the 21st century, this is a solid pick.
Would I recommend it? Sure, but maybe not as the definitive text on the subject. Think of it more as a conversational starter – a way to get those techy wheels in your brain turning. Whether you agree with Suleyman or not, it'll definitely leave you with something to ponder.
November 4, 2023
I've read this one because of the background of its author. You don't read the book by the founder of DeepMind every second day, right?
Sadly, I am a bit disappointed in the end. Why so?
1. The author does very well when it comes to presenting potential threats related to the further development of the technology. He's also done very well in clarifying why we need the continuous cycle of progression - his train of thought is based on solid facts from the past & analysis of the current situation.
2. At some point (relatively early), the book stops being one about the coming wave of technology and becomes one about the coming wave of AI. It's not good or bad - I just wanted to warn you.
3. Inevitably, the discussion about AI moves into the debate: regulate (contain) or not - this pretty much becomes the general theme of the book. And sadly, it's where the author fails mostly. It's not that his reasoning is bad: quite the contrary! He brings a lot of very good arguments both for and against regulation, but all of that sounds like ... he can't make up his mind. At times he starts with a claim that regulation is a no-go, just to continue with ten arguments for regulation. But on a different occasion (chapter 14?), he brings in 10 ideas on how to contain AI development, only to summarize that this is not feasible at all. Seriously?
A lot of good food for thought, but inactionable, self-contradictory, chaotic, and in the end not really actionable. This could have been much better book, if Mustafa could bring in more clarity.
Sadly, I am a bit disappointed in the end. Why so?
1. The author does very well when it comes to presenting potential threats related to the further development of the technology. He's also done very well in clarifying why we need the continuous cycle of progression - his train of thought is based on solid facts from the past & analysis of the current situation.
2. At some point (relatively early), the book stops being one about the coming wave of technology and becomes one about the coming wave of AI. It's not good or bad - I just wanted to warn you.
3. Inevitably, the discussion about AI moves into the debate: regulate (contain) or not - this pretty much becomes the general theme of the book. And sadly, it's where the author fails mostly. It's not that his reasoning is bad: quite the contrary! He brings a lot of very good arguments both for and against regulation, but all of that sounds like ... he can't make up his mind. At times he starts with a claim that regulation is a no-go, just to continue with ten arguments for regulation. But on a different occasion (chapter 14?), he brings in 10 ideas on how to contain AI development, only to summarize that this is not feasible at all. Seriously?
A lot of good food for thought, but inactionable, self-contradictory, chaotic, and in the end not really actionable. This could have been much better book, if Mustafa could bring in more clarity.
August 17, 2023
Suleyman co-founded Deep Mind, a revolutionary AI company, now part of Google.
He left because he dislikes big, slow organizations.
He's running Inflection AI to give us personal assistants.
He discusses:
- Stable Diffusion which "lets anyone produce bespoke and ultrarealistic images for free."
- "Artificial Capable Intelligence (ACI), when AI does complex goals with minimal oversight.
- Humanity's "central problem" in the 21st century: "how we can contain the seemingly uncontainable."
His book covers a myriad of topics, most of which I knew about, but I got some insights.
It's a great overview for readers in 2023-2024.
It will soon be outdated, so read it now!
He left because he dislikes big, slow organizations.
He's running Inflection AI to give us personal assistants.
He discusses:
- Stable Diffusion which "lets anyone produce bespoke and ultrarealistic images for free."
- "Artificial Capable Intelligence (ACI), when AI does complex goals with minimal oversight.
- Humanity's "central problem" in the 21st century: "how we can contain the seemingly uncontainable."
His book covers a myriad of topics, most of which I knew about, but I got some insights.
It's a great overview for readers in 2023-2024.
It will soon be outdated, so read it now!
January 19, 2024
It’s more like three stars, but because the topic is so urgent and relevant, it gets an extra. We have all heard of AI and seen the movies and maybe some even think it’s a matter of consciousness. It’s not. The real issue is that AI will, within the next few years, do a lot of jobs better than humans. We have basically taught programs to program themselves - that is, to learn and adapt.
It will change everything. We have already seen AI art and pictures that look real and we only know it’s not because well, satanism isn’t taught in kindergartens, for example. It will become even more difficult to distinguish fact from fiction and disinformation will flourish as bad actors try to get their points across. Even worse, they can by DNA synthesizers and together with AI create new deadly viruses. This is not science fiction anymore.
Although I have not really engaged with AI, I have chatGPT on my phone and I have tweaked my LinkedIn messages with AI, occasionally. Like all technology, it can be used for good or ill. In Norway 60% of teachers have caught students cheating with AI, turning in assignment that they haven’t written.
The authors want regulation and containment. So do I, but I don’t see how, even after reading this. The train has left the station, the ship has sailed, Pandora’s box has been opened.
You should be scared. AI isn’t coming with esoteric questions of consciousness. AI is coming to lie to you and to take your job and to rob your accounts. You should read this book.
Note: chatGPT did NOT write this review because it doesn’t apparently review new books. Yes, of course I tried, just to see what would come out of it.
It will change everything. We have already seen AI art and pictures that look real and we only know it’s not because well, satanism isn’t taught in kindergartens, for example. It will become even more difficult to distinguish fact from fiction and disinformation will flourish as bad actors try to get their points across. Even worse, they can by DNA synthesizers and together with AI create new deadly viruses. This is not science fiction anymore.
Although I have not really engaged with AI, I have chatGPT on my phone and I have tweaked my LinkedIn messages with AI, occasionally. Like all technology, it can be used for good or ill. In Norway 60% of teachers have caught students cheating with AI, turning in assignment that they haven’t written.
The authors want regulation and containment. So do I, but I don’t see how, even after reading this. The train has left the station, the ship has sailed, Pandora’s box has been opened.
You should be scared. AI isn’t coming with esoteric questions of consciousness. AI is coming to lie to you and to take your job and to rob your accounts. You should read this book.
Note: chatGPT did NOT write this review because it doesn’t apparently review new books. Yes, of course I tried, just to see what would come out of it.
November 13, 2023
Slap a label on a sophisticated program that helps people do things using language by calling it Artificial Intelligence and then write a book that hypes the technology beyond itself such that it makes the reader forget that it’s just a clever program, that’s what this author does.
This book read as if Zuckerberg had written a book on the Metaverse and how it was going to change everything and needed to be regulated because it will be so life-changing, disruptive and cause a new wave for history.
As this book claimed, McKinsey did a study showing AI was headed towards a one trillion-dollar industry, and McKinsey also did a study showing the Metaverse would be worth the same amount (what a coincidence!).
Bitcoins, NFT’s of monkeys or Melania’s hats, self-driving cars, Metaverse and AI all get hyped as if they are disruptive technologies and the self-fulfilling prophecies make it so and books like this one have self-serving reasons to accelerate the hype, and then, viola, my newspaper gets full of stories that just don’t make sense to me, but they must be real because everyone says they are even though they aren’t (I’m still waiting for my self-driving car, and goggles for the Metaverse, and my IRA is dependent on Melania’s hat price going up, and how come Jimmy Fallon is not talking up those digital monkey asses I bought, and the AI described in this book as revolutionary change is just as full of it).
The author mentioned a real-potential threat to democracy potentially because of his and others’ earth-shaking AI programs currently or hypothetically available. The author need not worry, Trump and MAGA morons did not need ‘Artificial Intelligence’ to threaten democracy, they are doing it the old-fashioned way, by inciting hate, lying, and denying reality on their own, maybe social media enabled that as this book predicts about the stability of liberal democracies, but the hate, lying and denying reality was always out there, and Trump’s minions did not need chat bots to bring down democracy, just ask Russia, or Hungary, or Turkey and even China.
Clever programming that helps humans do things better can be useful. Only humans are good or evil, things never are. The technology can be misused by bad humans. I even think that super AI will be real one day (they will solve the N=NP problem). The Turing Test would be passed by the current state of chat-bots out there. That doesn’t mean the current bots are ‘intelligent,’ they only are intelligent in the Turing Test sense.
This book misdirects with what we should be concerned with by highlighting his communicative approach to computer programming and writing this self-serving book that makes his contribution to the flavor-of-the-month seem critical for the world’s survival.
I fell for the hype of self-driving cars, bitcoins and thought block-chain must have some value otherwise billionaires wouldn’t be spending all that money, Jimmy Fallon selling NFT’s of monkeys or people willing to buy a digital original of Melania’s hat means it must be real, and Zuckerberg is spending 20 billion on the Metaverse means it must be the next big thing, after all he’s a billionaire and I’m just one ordinary mortal. I was wrong-headed on all those fantasies.
This book is fantastic as he morphs his programs into something that they aren’t and frightens his reader. BTW, the author tries to merge robotics and synthetic biology into his fear the future story, and his historical anecdotes are just sloppily added into the story. Oh, yeah, I remember one thing he said that really irritated me, the author wanted to put a transphobic woman on his committee because he wanted diversity of opinions on his committee, I suggest he should also have a homophobe, a racist, a fascist, a totalitarian, and an antisemite to capture the full diversity spectrum of representation and MAGA would then be fully represented. Why would the author want a transphobic person on any committee? He should thank the people who discovered that person was a hateful bigot and then move on.
I regret reading this book, but at least it gives me insights into all the mis-direction that I’ve been seeing in the newspapers about AI as if it was an intelligence with almost human consciousness that was artificial rather than what it is, clever programming with complex recursive programs that are language based and useful but not transformational change leading to a new ‘wave.’
This book read as if Zuckerberg had written a book on the Metaverse and how it was going to change everything and needed to be regulated because it will be so life-changing, disruptive and cause a new wave for history.
As this book claimed, McKinsey did a study showing AI was headed towards a one trillion-dollar industry, and McKinsey also did a study showing the Metaverse would be worth the same amount (what a coincidence!).
Bitcoins, NFT’s of monkeys or Melania’s hats, self-driving cars, Metaverse and AI all get hyped as if they are disruptive technologies and the self-fulfilling prophecies make it so and books like this one have self-serving reasons to accelerate the hype, and then, viola, my newspaper gets full of stories that just don’t make sense to me, but they must be real because everyone says they are even though they aren’t (I’m still waiting for my self-driving car, and goggles for the Metaverse, and my IRA is dependent on Melania’s hat price going up, and how come Jimmy Fallon is not talking up those digital monkey asses I bought, and the AI described in this book as revolutionary change is just as full of it).
The author mentioned a real-potential threat to democracy potentially because of his and others’ earth-shaking AI programs currently or hypothetically available. The author need not worry, Trump and MAGA morons did not need ‘Artificial Intelligence’ to threaten democracy, they are doing it the old-fashioned way, by inciting hate, lying, and denying reality on their own, maybe social media enabled that as this book predicts about the stability of liberal democracies, but the hate, lying and denying reality was always out there, and Trump’s minions did not need chat bots to bring down democracy, just ask Russia, or Hungary, or Turkey and even China.
Clever programming that helps humans do things better can be useful. Only humans are good or evil, things never are. The technology can be misused by bad humans. I even think that super AI will be real one day (they will solve the N=NP problem). The Turing Test would be passed by the current state of chat-bots out there. That doesn’t mean the current bots are ‘intelligent,’ they only are intelligent in the Turing Test sense.
This book misdirects with what we should be concerned with by highlighting his communicative approach to computer programming and writing this self-serving book that makes his contribution to the flavor-of-the-month seem critical for the world’s survival.
I fell for the hype of self-driving cars, bitcoins and thought block-chain must have some value otherwise billionaires wouldn’t be spending all that money, Jimmy Fallon selling NFT’s of monkeys or people willing to buy a digital original of Melania’s hat means it must be real, and Zuckerberg is spending 20 billion on the Metaverse means it must be the next big thing, after all he’s a billionaire and I’m just one ordinary mortal. I was wrong-headed on all those fantasies.
This book is fantastic as he morphs his programs into something that they aren’t and frightens his reader. BTW, the author tries to merge robotics and synthetic biology into his fear the future story, and his historical anecdotes are just sloppily added into the story. Oh, yeah, I remember one thing he said that really irritated me, the author wanted to put a transphobic woman on his committee because he wanted diversity of opinions on his committee, I suggest he should also have a homophobe, a racist, a fascist, a totalitarian, and an antisemite to capture the full diversity spectrum of representation and MAGA would then be fully represented. Why would the author want a transphobic person on any committee? He should thank the people who discovered that person was a hateful bigot and then move on.
I regret reading this book, but at least it gives me insights into all the mis-direction that I’ve been seeing in the newspapers about AI as if it was an intelligence with almost human consciousness that was artificial rather than what it is, clever programming with complex recursive programs that are language based and useful but not transformational change leading to a new ‘wave.’
November 25, 2023
"The Coming Wave" (2023) is a book about the current state of AI that needs to be read because it was written by Mustafa Suleyman, the founder of DeepMind, the company acquired by Google in 2014 for 400 million and which beat the Go world champion, Lee Sedol, in 2016. In other words, if you want to understand how those who lead today's big AI companies look at the world, how they interpret it, but above all how they envisage the near future, this book is a good place to start. This is not to say everything here should be read as truth or plausible future reality. Suleyman doesn't claim to be a herald of AI; on the contrary, his entire discourse in this book is based on a single idea, the "containment of AI", which he wants but doesn't believe is possible. My biggest criticism lies in Suleyman's naivety, which is based on a belief that technology only evolves in one direction and society does nothing to shape it.
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“The Coming Wave” (2023) é um livro sobre a atualidade da IA que precisa de ser lido por ter sido escrito por Mustafa Suleyman, o fundador da DeepMind, a empresa adquirida pela Google em 2014 por 400 milhões e que bateria o campeão mundial de Go, Lee Sedol, em 2016. Ou seja, se quiserem compreender como quem lidera as atuais grandes empresas de IA olha para o mundo, como o interpreta, mas acima de tudo como perspetivam o futuro próximo, este livro é uma boa porta de entrada. Isto não quer dizer que tudo o que está aqui deva ser lido como verdade ou como realidade futura plausível. Suleyman não tem pretensões de ser um arauto da IA, antes pelo contrário, todo o seu discurso neste livro assenta numa ideia única, a “contenção da IA”, que deseja, mas que não acredita ser possível. A minha maior crítica assenta na enorme ingenuidade de Suleyman que é baseada numa crença de que a tecnologia apenas evolui num sentido e a sociedade nada contribui para moldar a mesma.
Ler o texto completo: https://experiencianarrativa.wordpres...
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“The Coming Wave” (2023) é um livro sobre a atualidade da IA que precisa de ser lido por ter sido escrito por Mustafa Suleyman, o fundador da DeepMind, a empresa adquirida pela Google em 2014 por 400 milhões e que bateria o campeão mundial de Go, Lee Sedol, em 2016. Ou seja, se quiserem compreender como quem lidera as atuais grandes empresas de IA olha para o mundo, como o interpreta, mas acima de tudo como perspetivam o futuro próximo, este livro é uma boa porta de entrada. Isto não quer dizer que tudo o que está aqui deva ser lido como verdade ou como realidade futura plausível. Suleyman não tem pretensões de ser um arauto da IA, antes pelo contrário, todo o seu discurso neste livro assenta numa ideia única, a “contenção da IA”, que deseja, mas que não acredita ser possível. A minha maior crítica assenta na enorme ingenuidade de Suleyman que é baseada numa crença de que a tecnologia apenas evolui num sentido e a sociedade nada contribui para moldar a mesma.
Ler o texto completo: https://experiencianarrativa.wordpres...
September 24, 2023
The Coming Wave is Homo Technologicus written in the tone of Harari’s Homo Deus and Toffler’s Third Wave. Suleyman’s selective reading of the past industrial and technological shifts is a bit problematic as progress in technology happens in tiny increments not in tsunamic waves. Maybe Suleyman means the following economic and social effects as the coming wave but even then his pessimistic speculation doesn’t help the cause.
In foreseeing proliferation of AI in the next decade, Suleyman calls governments for action (regulation) to contain AI. This approach is also problematic as nations states are not very effective in regulating any technology, it is mostly the platform owners that do the containment as evidenced in case of social media in pandemic or financial crisis, where there is little incentive until it reaches a state of disaster. Suleyman himself resigned from Google shortly after selling his startup (as cofounder of DeepMind) to the tech conglomerate mainly complaining about bureaucracy. Chapter 14 towards the end offers ten steps for containment but concludes later that containment is virtually impossible. Not sure I should read this cynically as a sales pitch for another startup offering consultancy to nation states or just assume maybe some parts were written by an LLM having hallucinations :)
All in all, I think AI is only mirroring our own flaws (as seen in racism and sexism of some chatbots) so it is not the technology we need to contain, but the people, through proper training and critical thinking.
In foreseeing proliferation of AI in the next decade, Suleyman calls governments for action (regulation) to contain AI. This approach is also problematic as nations states are not very effective in regulating any technology, it is mostly the platform owners that do the containment as evidenced in case of social media in pandemic or financial crisis, where there is little incentive until it reaches a state of disaster. Suleyman himself resigned from Google shortly after selling his startup (as cofounder of DeepMind) to the tech conglomerate mainly complaining about bureaucracy. Chapter 14 towards the end offers ten steps for containment but concludes later that containment is virtually impossible. Not sure I should read this cynically as a sales pitch for another startup offering consultancy to nation states or just assume maybe some parts were written by an LLM having hallucinations :)
All in all, I think AI is only mirroring our own flaws (as seen in racism and sexism of some chatbots) so it is not the technology we need to contain, but the people, through proper training and critical thinking.
October 9, 2023
I’m torn on this book. In The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of the AI company DeepMind (acquired by Google), argues that unchecked advancements in AI and synthetic biology are the existential tests of our time and if we don’t rise to the moment with realistic containment strategies, the consequences could be catastrophic. On the one hand, I share many of his concerns about the negative impacts of contemporary tech. Despite their many benefits, we continue to see research demonstrating the detrimental effects of screen time and social media, to name only two, on human relationships, societal harmony, and truth itself.
On the other hand, much of The Coming Wave is based on predictions about the future. Suleyman envisions a world where AI replaces the highest forms of human cognition, vacating job opportunities and plunging humanity into a brutal cycle for survival, or potentially wiping us out altogether if AI joins forces with synthetic biology to create a new unstoppable pathogen. And while he argues that patient development of this tech and responsible oversight can curb its ill effects, he continues to launch companies in this space, benefitting from the very product he critiques. Granted, he may be practicing what he preaches, but the book felt very much like a sales pitch for his version of AI. In all other hands, it’s a poison to humanity, but his can be the difference. This despite the fact that his recommendations include blatant violations of the First Amendment and a hint at US-enforced global censorship.
I think Suleyman bites off more than he can chew here. He tries to play entrepreneur, philosopher, historian, and prophet all in the space of a single book. He would’ve done better to root his argument less in hypotheticals that may or may not result and more in what can be done in the present moment. It’s unrealistic to base present behavior on an unclear and unproven future consequences. Doing so is a recipe for either paralysis or madness.
There’s a lot to appreciate here though. His critique of financial incentives driving the pace of tech is absolutely right. The built-in payoff of being *the first* does nothing to encourage patient, ethical work, nor does it incentivize companies to publicly own their blunders. Rather, it enriches the breakthrough no matter the cost. I’m all for a slower pace to technological development to invite the ethical considerations involved in the work. I’m also in favor of a societal shift more interested in how technology will truly benefit humanity than whether or not it will secure a new round of capital. I’m just not convinced the vision cast in The Coming Wave is the one to embrace.
On the other hand, much of The Coming Wave is based on predictions about the future. Suleyman envisions a world where AI replaces the highest forms of human cognition, vacating job opportunities and plunging humanity into a brutal cycle for survival, or potentially wiping us out altogether if AI joins forces with synthetic biology to create a new unstoppable pathogen. And while he argues that patient development of this tech and responsible oversight can curb its ill effects, he continues to launch companies in this space, benefitting from the very product he critiques. Granted, he may be practicing what he preaches, but the book felt very much like a sales pitch for his version of AI. In all other hands, it’s a poison to humanity, but his can be the difference. This despite the fact that his recommendations include blatant violations of the First Amendment and a hint at US-enforced global censorship.
I think Suleyman bites off more than he can chew here. He tries to play entrepreneur, philosopher, historian, and prophet all in the space of a single book. He would’ve done better to root his argument less in hypotheticals that may or may not result and more in what can be done in the present moment. It’s unrealistic to base present behavior on an unclear and unproven future consequences. Doing so is a recipe for either paralysis or madness.
There’s a lot to appreciate here though. His critique of financial incentives driving the pace of tech is absolutely right. The built-in payoff of being *the first* does nothing to encourage patient, ethical work, nor does it incentivize companies to publicly own their blunders. Rather, it enriches the breakthrough no matter the cost. I’m all for a slower pace to technological development to invite the ethical considerations involved in the work. I’m also in favor of a societal shift more interested in how technology will truly benefit humanity than whether or not it will secure a new round of capital. I’m just not convinced the vision cast in The Coming Wave is the one to embrace.
September 10, 2023
Anyone who has read more than 5 minutes about ai knows about this. No new information. Total waste of time.
April 22, 2024
Über die Risiken von KI wird in Filmen und Romanen schon seit Jahrzehnten trefflich spekuliert. Diesen teilweise abwegigen Szenarien stand bisher eine jedoch eher ernüchternde Praxis entgegen. Bis zuletzt erweckten dümmliche Chatbots und Algorithmen mit mauen Vorhersagefähigkeiten nicht gerade den Eindruck, dass KI in absehbarer Zeit unser Leben grundlegend verändern würde. Dies hat sich mit dem Release von ChatGPT allerdings unzweifelhaft geändert. Erstmals wurde eine intuitiv anwendbare und mehrwertstiftende KI-Anwendung einer breiten Masse zugänglich gemacht, die andeutet, was in Zukunft alles möglich sein wird.
Mustafa Suleyman, der sich als Gründer der KI-Anwendung DeepMind einen Namen gemacht hat, spinnt diese Entwicklung weiter und skizziert Chancen & Risiken zukünftiger KI-Formen. Die gute Nachricht: KI wird es uns ermöglichen, Behandlungsmöglichkeiten für derzeit noch unheilbare Krankheiten oder effektive Lösungen für den Klimawandel zu finden. Die schlechte Nachricht: Geraten bestimmte KI-Anwendungen in die Hände von Terroristen oder Kriminellen, könnte diese für unfassbar schreckliche Verbrechen verwendet werden. Die Entwicklung von hyperansteckend-tödlichen Viren oder die Entschlüsselung von geheimer Regierungskommunikation, durch die ganze Staaten destabilisiert würde, wären dann im Bereich des Möglichen. Um diese Negativszenarien zu verhüten, entwickelt Suleyman in „The Coming Wave“ ein ordnungspolitisches Gegenprogramm. Er spricht sich in diesem Kontext für eine staatenübergreifende KI-Regulierung und für die Eindämmung bestimmter KI-Anwendungen, vergleichbar mit dem Atomwaffensperrvertrag, aus.
Grundsätzlich bietet „The Coming Wave“ einen guten Überblick über die Risiken und Potenzial zukünftiger KI. Suleymans Darstellung ist hierbei realitätsnah und gleitet, im Unterschied zu anderen Büchern dieses Genres, nur selten in Science-Fiction ab. Trotz kleiner Schwächen im Hinblick auf die Struktur und die etwas holzschnittartigen Vorstellungen von (Geo-)Politik empfand ich dieses Buch als lesenswert. Wer zudem Themeneinsteiger ist, dürfte mit „The Coming Wave“ einen noch größeren Erkenntnisgewinn erzielen.
Mustafa Suleyman, der sich als Gründer der KI-Anwendung DeepMind einen Namen gemacht hat, spinnt diese Entwicklung weiter und skizziert Chancen & Risiken zukünftiger KI-Formen. Die gute Nachricht: KI wird es uns ermöglichen, Behandlungsmöglichkeiten für derzeit noch unheilbare Krankheiten oder effektive Lösungen für den Klimawandel zu finden. Die schlechte Nachricht: Geraten bestimmte KI-Anwendungen in die Hände von Terroristen oder Kriminellen, könnte diese für unfassbar schreckliche Verbrechen verwendet werden. Die Entwicklung von hyperansteckend-tödlichen Viren oder die Entschlüsselung von geheimer Regierungskommunikation, durch die ganze Staaten destabilisiert würde, wären dann im Bereich des Möglichen. Um diese Negativszenarien zu verhüten, entwickelt Suleyman in „The Coming Wave“ ein ordnungspolitisches Gegenprogramm. Er spricht sich in diesem Kontext für eine staatenübergreifende KI-Regulierung und für die Eindämmung bestimmter KI-Anwendungen, vergleichbar mit dem Atomwaffensperrvertrag, aus.
Grundsätzlich bietet „The Coming Wave“ einen guten Überblick über die Risiken und Potenzial zukünftiger KI. Suleymans Darstellung ist hierbei realitätsnah und gleitet, im Unterschied zu anderen Büchern dieses Genres, nur selten in Science-Fiction ab. Trotz kleiner Schwächen im Hinblick auf die Struktur und die etwas holzschnittartigen Vorstellungen von (Geo-)Politik empfand ich dieses Buch als lesenswert. Wer zudem Themeneinsteiger ist, dürfte mit „The Coming Wave“ einen noch größeren Erkenntnisgewinn erzielen.
July 22, 2023
A very important book, coming at the right time.
Mustafa Suleyman is a pioneer in the field of AI. In this book he proposes that the future will become what we shape it to be. Lack of controls can cause unmitigated dangers and damage when biotechnology, computer science and robotics converge.
This is a book about the ethics of advanced technologies at an infliction point "The Coming Wave".
A must read for anyone in the field.
Mustafa Suleyman is a pioneer in the field of AI. In this book he proposes that the future will become what we shape it to be. Lack of controls can cause unmitigated dangers and damage when biotechnology, computer science and robotics converge.
This is a book about the ethics of advanced technologies at an infliction point "The Coming Wave".
A must read for anyone in the field.
May 6, 2024
Nie ukrywam, że jest to jedno z moich większych rozczarowań w tym roku.
Nie ujmę tego lepiej już podsumowując, że książka jest rozwleczona (nawet nie wiem czy przegadana!) i materiał w niej wydaje się miejscami laniem wody ot tak, żeby wypełnić strony.
Niewiele się dowiedziałam. Lepiej poczytać artykuły w internecie.
Nie ujmę tego lepiej już podsumowując, że książka jest rozwleczona (nawet nie wiem czy przegadana!) i materiał w niej wydaje się miejscami laniem wody ot tak, żeby wypełnić strony.
Niewiele się dowiedziałam. Lepiej poczytać artykuły w internecie.
December 27, 2023
Biraz fazla uzun olduğunu düşünüyorum ama yapay zeka meselesiyle ilgili güncel bilgiler içermesi açısından, güzel bir kitap. Ortaya koyduğu soru ve sorunlarla ilgili elle tutulur yanıtlar / çözümler önerdiğini pek düşünmüyorum açıkçası.
Zamana karşı en az dayanacak kitaplar, teknoloji kitapları. Ele aldığı konunun ilerleme hızı düşünülürse, bu yepyeni kitap da 2-3 sene sonra eskimiş, geçersiz bilgilerle dolu hale gelecek.
Zamana karşı en az dayanacak kitaplar, teknoloji kitapları. Ele aldığı konunun ilerleme hızı düşünülürse, bu yepyeni kitap da 2-3 sene sonra eskimiş, geçersiz bilgilerle dolu hale gelecek.
February 3, 2024
Most “new age” books fall into the trap of “what ifsm”. They incessantly repeat the trends that everyone can see and discuss fringe futuristic outcomes with little cohesion or ideas to address them. This is particularly aggravating when the reader is already familiar with the topics. It renders the book boring and repetitive.
While this books falls a little bit into that trap (this being the only reason I am giving it 4 stars instead of 5), I was pleasantly surprised to find a lot more substance and cohesion in the ideas presented.
This book is divided into four parts: 1) The history of technology, 2) The coming wave (the set of coming technologies - AI, synthetic biology) 3) The impact of the coming wave on society, particularly on the nation state, and 4) Possible ways of containment.
Part 1 is a fun overview of tech history (albeit not super accurate). It has interesting insights that can be drawn from previous tech trends.
Part 2 is the weakest. It is a repetitive recollection of current technological development that, presumably, is already known by most reading this type of book. It is filled with “what ifsm” and borders being dreadful at some points.
But part 3, and 4 to a lesser extent, are absolutely phenomenal. Few tech books have such insightful and cohesive comments on the impact of technology on the fabric of society. Mustafa’s professional background in policy before joining technology really shines here. He presents a clever and engaging view of the challenges nation states will face with the coming wave, made possible only by people with insider experience in both fields. His views are refreshing, not falling squarely into any category of technological or social thought.
I began consuming this book in audio. But part 3 inspired me to get the physical copy and restart it, to make sure I could take notes and process the ideas better.
Part 4 shares closes the book with his ideas on how containment can be possible. And although these are good, they are not well explored or developed enough.
Overall one of the best tech books I’ve read, leaving the reader with real calls to action and several ideas to process.
While this books falls a little bit into that trap (this being the only reason I am giving it 4 stars instead of 5), I was pleasantly surprised to find a lot more substance and cohesion in the ideas presented.
This book is divided into four parts: 1) The history of technology, 2) The coming wave (the set of coming technologies - AI, synthetic biology) 3) The impact of the coming wave on society, particularly on the nation state, and 4) Possible ways of containment.
Part 1 is a fun overview of tech history (albeit not super accurate). It has interesting insights that can be drawn from previous tech trends.
Part 2 is the weakest. It is a repetitive recollection of current technological development that, presumably, is already known by most reading this type of book. It is filled with “what ifsm” and borders being dreadful at some points.
But part 3, and 4 to a lesser extent, are absolutely phenomenal. Few tech books have such insightful and cohesive comments on the impact of technology on the fabric of society. Mustafa’s professional background in policy before joining technology really shines here. He presents a clever and engaging view of the challenges nation states will face with the coming wave, made possible only by people with insider experience in both fields. His views are refreshing, not falling squarely into any category of technological or social thought.
I began consuming this book in audio. But part 3 inspired me to get the physical copy and restart it, to make sure I could take notes and process the ideas better.
Part 4 shares closes the book with his ideas on how containment can be possible. And although these are good, they are not well explored or developed enough.
Overall one of the best tech books I’ve read, leaving the reader with real calls to action and several ideas to process.
December 20, 2023
This book is in my field of AI and I wish I had enjoyed it more.
I did not dislike this book because of its doomsday messaging or that I disagreed philosophically with the messaging because I didn't.
Rather I did not like the book because it was not well written. There were very few stories and there were even fewer technology details. I just didn't learn much because there were too many generalizations and reliance on what I call common sense viewpoints.
It is odd that someone who is admittedly quite brilliant and for someone who headed Google Deep Mind during several of the foundational advancements of AI could write such boring copy.
3 stars. Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom is a much better book.
I did not dislike this book because of its doomsday messaging or that I disagreed philosophically with the messaging because I didn't.
Rather I did not like the book because it was not well written. There were very few stories and there were even fewer technology details. I just didn't learn much because there were too many generalizations and reliance on what I call common sense viewpoints.
It is odd that someone who is admittedly quite brilliant and for someone who headed Google Deep Mind during several of the foundational advancements of AI could write such boring copy.
3 stars. Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom is a much better book.
April 22, 2024
Накратко, към момента дебатът за ИИ може в едно изречение да се обобщи така:
AI is both valuable and dangerous precisely because it’s an extension of our best and worse selves.
Книгата е опит на човек, който си разбира от работата, да предизвика дебат за ефектите от развитието на ИИ, синтетичната биология, технологиите за редактиране на ДНК, квантовите компютри, 3D принтерите и всякакви други невъобразими неща, които идват на ум на авторите на научна фантастика. Както се казва, ако някой си го представи, друг ще го изобрети. Дебатът не е „за“ и „против“ развитието на технологиите, защото е повече от ясно, че технологиите подобряват живота на повечето хора. А и е ясно, че няма как да бъдат възпрени. По-скоро дебатът е как да бъдат ограничени отрицателните им ефекти. След като описва различни гледни точки към – най-общо казано – технологиите, Мустафа Сюлейман предлага 10 начина (дори ги е обобщил в таблица) за възпирането им. Използва „възпиране“ в смисъл на забавяне на темпа на развитие с цел да се обсъдят и по-добре да се преценят вероятните проблеми с тези технологии.
1. Безопасност. Тази точка включва физическо възпиране напр. при биотехнологиите; осигуряване на техническа безопасност на технологиите; повече хора, които да изследват развитието и влиянието на LLMs (Large Language Models) и т.н;
2. Одит. Технологиите и техните ефекти трябва да се изучават, изследват и критикуват от много и различни специалисти, за да се отчете влиянието им върху всяка човешка дейност;
3. Тесните места – те осигуряват време, през което да можем по-добре да оценим влиятнието на технологиите. Тесни места са напр. веригите за доставка на чипове, на полупроводници, на оборудване за производство. Ако САЩ не доставят чипове на Китай, Китай ще започне да произвежда свои. Но това ще отнеме време, през което ще имаме възможност да проучим как ИИ ще се отрази на работните места например;
4. Изследователите, които трябва да разработят и внедрят правила за безопасност и етика в самото сърце на технологиите. Ето как IT индустрията ще открие работни места за философи, които да помагат в тази задача.
5. Бизнесът, който трябва да работи за ��ечалба, но също така и с purpose. Така печалбите от IT бизнеса ще трябва да се инвестират в етични и социални проекти за смекчаване на неблагоприятните ефекти от развитието на този сектор.
6. Правителствата, които да предложат адекватни форми на възпиране и регулация на технологиите.
7. Съюзи – на всякакви нива. Държави, обединени от общата идея да работят за възпиране, ограниачаване на вредите и заплахите от технологиите.
8. Култура - такава на смирение, на приемане на провала, на отговорност – преди всичко от страна на хората, които създават и работят с технологиите. Култура на автоограничаване – можем да направим каквото си искаме, но няма, защото това би погубило човечеството.
9. Силата на хората – обществата трябва да настояват за ограничения. Хората притежават голяма сила, стига да се обединят около смислени цели.
10. Тесният път. Това е пътечката, от едната страна на която е антиутопична държва, в която Големият брат наблюдава всеки, по всяко време и навсякъде, защото може и защото ИИ е способен да обработи невъобразимо големи бази данни; от другата страна е отсъстващата държава, загубила легитимност, с липсващи институции и която не може да предоставя основни услуги съгласно обществения договор. Една грешна стъпка встрани и можем да паднем в едната или другата пропаст, но никоя няма да ни хареса.
AI is both valuable and dangerous precisely because it’s an extension of our best and worse selves.
Книгата е опит на човек, който си разбира от работата, да предизвика дебат за ефектите от развитието на ИИ, синтетичната биология, технологиите за редактиране на ДНК, квантовите компютри, 3D принтерите и всякакви други невъобразими неща, които идват на ум на авторите на научна фантастика. Както се казва, ако някой си го представи, друг ще го изобрети. Дебатът не е „за“ и „против“ развитието на технологиите, защото е повече от ясно, че технологиите подобряват живота на повечето хора. А и е ясно, че няма как да бъдат възпрени. По-скоро дебатът е как да бъдат ограничени отрицателните им ефекти. След като описва различни гледни точки към – най-общо казано – технологиите, Мустафа Сюлейман предлага 10 начина (дори ги е обобщил в таблица) за възпирането им. Използва „възпиране“ в смисъл на забавяне на темпа на развитие с цел да се обсъдят и по-добре да се преценят вероятните проблеми с тези технологии.
1. Безопасност. Тази точка включва физическо възпиране напр. при биотехнологиите; осигуряване на техническа безопасност на технологиите; повече хора, които да изследват развитието и влиянието на LLMs (Large Language Models) и т.н;
2. Одит. Технологиите и техните ефекти трябва да се изучават, изследват и критикуват от много и различни специалисти, за да се отчете влиянието им върху всяка човешка дейност;
3. Тесните места – те осигуряват време, през което да можем по-добре да оценим влиятнието на технологиите. Тесни места са напр. веригите за доставка на чипове, на полупроводници, на оборудване за производство. Ако САЩ не доставят чипове на Китай, Китай ще започне да произвежда свои. Но това ще отнеме време, през което ще имаме възможност да проучим как ИИ ще се отрази на работните места например;
4. Изследователите, които трябва да разработят и внедрят правила за безопасност и етика в самото сърце на технологиите. Ето как IT индустрията ще открие работни места за философи, които да помагат в тази задача.
5. Бизнесът, който трябва да работи за ��ечалба, но също така и с purpose. Така печалбите от IT бизнеса ще трябва да се инвестират в етични и социални проекти за смекчаване на неблагоприятните ефекти от развитието на този сектор.
6. Правителствата, които да предложат адекватни форми на възпиране и регулация на технологиите.
7. Съюзи – на всякакви нива. Държави, обединени от общата идея да работят за възпиране, ограниачаване на вредите и заплахите от технологиите.
8. Култура - такава на смирение, на приемане на провала, на отговорност – преди всичко от страна на хората, които създават и работят с технологиите. Култура на автоограничаване – можем да направим каквото си искаме, но няма, защото това би погубило човечеството.
9. Силата на хората – обществата трябва да настояват за ограничения. Хората притежават голяма сила, стига да се обединят около смислени цели.
10. Тесният път. Това е пътечката, от едната страна на която е антиутопична държва, в която Големият брат наблюдава всеки, по всяко време и навсякъде, защото може и защото ИИ е способен да обработи невъобразимо големи бази данни; от другата страна е отсъстващата държава, загубила легитимност, с липсващи институции и която не може да предоставя основни услуги съгласно обществения договор. Една грешна стъпка встрани и можем да паднем в едната или другата пропаст, но никоя няма да ни хареса.
April 23, 2024
to bardziej "wszystkie poprzednie fale przemysłu. rozwój gospodarczy, odkrycia, ciekawostki o ludzkości... a, i trochę o AI (ale głównie o LLMach) // resztę dopiszę potem
November 14, 2023
Hard to add something in this case. I highlight that the autor knows what he is talking about. That´s clear. He knows from inside. He is not outsider, like jornalist (not saying sth against jornalists).
Besides, his arguments and reasoning are very impressive and convincing.
Besides, his arguments and reasoning are very impressive and convincing.
February 25, 2024
This is the typical example of a book that should have been an essay.
If you read the science and technology pages in a decent newspaper, you are unlikely to learn much in terms of recent developments in artificial intelligence and biotechnology.
What is left, is a book that is endlessly repetitive, and full of points that have already been made repeatedly elsewhere.
Which is really a pity, because it drowns a message that society should be paying attention to. After all, here is an opinion written by someone who has been at the forefront of the spectacular developments in AI over the last decade. Contrary to the typical tech bro, Suleyman does admit that AI and biotechnology are not just forces for good, and could easily be put to use for very destructive purposes. Also, in contrast to the "long termists" philosophers that make the headlines, Suleyman does not focus on hypothetical threats like the "paperclip" scenarios, but refers to very concrete and present dangers. It is pretty worrying that the tech industry refuses to acknowledges them. In the final chapters, Suleyman proposes a framework to contain the threats, and that is actually worthwhile reading.
It is such a pity that this message gets drowned in a book that is 90% too long.
If you read the science and technology pages in a decent newspaper, you are unlikely to learn much in terms of recent developments in artificial intelligence and biotechnology.
What is left, is a book that is endlessly repetitive, and full of points that have already been made repeatedly elsewhere.
Which is really a pity, because it drowns a message that society should be paying attention to. After all, here is an opinion written by someone who has been at the forefront of the spectacular developments in AI over the last decade. Contrary to the typical tech bro, Suleyman does admit that AI and biotechnology are not just forces for good, and could easily be put to use for very destructive purposes. Also, in contrast to the "long termists" philosophers that make the headlines, Suleyman does not focus on hypothetical threats like the "paperclip" scenarios, but refers to very concrete and present dangers. It is pretty worrying that the tech industry refuses to acknowledges them. In the final chapters, Suleyman proposes a framework to contain the threats, and that is actually worthwhile reading.
It is such a pity that this message gets drowned in a book that is 90% too long.
September 21, 2023
I can’t recommend this work highly enough.
News Media and the Internet have been bombarding us daily with fawning visions and concurrent horror stories of the coming of AI. This mysterious Miracle will usher in an Age of Instant Access to Everything we ever needed or wanted as long as we were willing to turn over our Jobs, Finances, Leisure, Education, Communication, and Privacy to our Quantum Robot Overlords.
Right?! Huxley, Orwell, Max Planck and Elon Musk have ridden in to deliver all the dreams that made the primitive efforts of Amazon, Facebook, and TikTok pale in comparison. Of course, this is all Media Hype?!
No. It isn’t. It’s everything it’s cracked up to be. In The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman lays out for us ignorant laymen the fascinating and beautiful History of the development of AI, the challenges it has overcome, and the ones it’s still facing. He does a terrific job of juggling his admiration of the art and technology behind it while never letting the reader ignore the horrifying potential that lives within its breast.
The incredible breadth and scope of its ability is only hinted at by the ChatGPT, Facial Recognition Technologies, and Deep Fakes of today. When he writes of the metrics necessary to describe its power, he uses Ten to the Nth Power where N is unimaginable to our Human Imagination. But this is where AI lives and our feeble brains can’t begin to compete.
So, get ready because the Tide is coming and its impact dwarfs that of Gutenberg or the Steam Engine that turned those Worlds upside down. Reading this book opened my eyes to what we might be facing.
Perhaps the scariest part of The Coming Wave lies in the final chapters where, after painting the picture of what can and maybe will happen as AI, DNA Synthesis and Quantum Mechanics reach their full potential, Suleyman proposes his recommendations for containing or at least slowing down their impact. And this Man, founder of Deep Mind and other startups that were present at the Creation, provides us solutions that come down to:
GLOBAL COOPERATION
Are you all scared now?! Five Stars. *****
P.S. I’m old. I’m not gonna be here, but I wish you whippersnappers a Fun Ride! 😂
News Media and the Internet have been bombarding us daily with fawning visions and concurrent horror stories of the coming of AI. This mysterious Miracle will usher in an Age of Instant Access to Everything we ever needed or wanted as long as we were willing to turn over our Jobs, Finances, Leisure, Education, Communication, and Privacy to our Quantum Robot Overlords.
Right?! Huxley, Orwell, Max Planck and Elon Musk have ridden in to deliver all the dreams that made the primitive efforts of Amazon, Facebook, and TikTok pale in comparison. Of course, this is all Media Hype?!
No. It isn’t. It’s everything it’s cracked up to be. In The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman lays out for us ignorant laymen the fascinating and beautiful History of the development of AI, the challenges it has overcome, and the ones it’s still facing. He does a terrific job of juggling his admiration of the art and technology behind it while never letting the reader ignore the horrifying potential that lives within its breast.
The incredible breadth and scope of its ability is only hinted at by the ChatGPT, Facial Recognition Technologies, and Deep Fakes of today. When he writes of the metrics necessary to describe its power, he uses Ten to the Nth Power where N is unimaginable to our Human Imagination. But this is where AI lives and our feeble brains can’t begin to compete.
So, get ready because the Tide is coming and its impact dwarfs that of Gutenberg or the Steam Engine that turned those Worlds upside down. Reading this book opened my eyes to what we might be facing.
Perhaps the scariest part of The Coming Wave lies in the final chapters where, after painting the picture of what can and maybe will happen as AI, DNA Synthesis and Quantum Mechanics reach their full potential, Suleyman proposes his recommendations for containing or at least slowing down their impact. And this Man, founder of Deep Mind and other startups that were present at the Creation, provides us solutions that come down to:
GLOBAL COOPERATION
Are you all scared now?! Five Stars. *****
P.S. I’m old. I’m not gonna be here, but I wish you whippersnappers a Fun Ride! 😂
January 5, 2024
Been looking for a book like this for a while. Pretty academic, but it helps understand what technology (primarily AI and DNA synthesis) may do to the world in the long term. I’m not going to lie, I thought I was gonna give up on the book in the first quarter as it went into detail on AI, but once you get past this it’s a great read. First third is about artificial intelligence, second third is about geopolitics, and the last third covers how to deal with the threat.
At points, terrifying to read and dystopian in nature. But the writer isn’t a pessimist, providing decently practical measures to prevent apocalypse. Very engaging and well written, with tonnes of historical examples and anecdotes throughout. The author is a smart geezer.
Think I’m going to read a light fiction after that
At points, terrifying to read and dystopian in nature. But the writer isn’t a pessimist, providing decently practical measures to prevent apocalypse. Very engaging and well written, with tonnes of historical examples and anecdotes throughout. The author is a smart geezer.
Think I’m going to read a light fiction after that
September 22, 2023
A very important and timely book about the upcoming wave/tsunami of AI and its implication on biotech and synthetic biology that will change all our lives. The author, Mustafa Suleyman is an expert in the field of AI and co-founder of Deepmind. He has been an early promoter of AI security research and the role governments have to play in this. It is a book that should be read and discussed by all the parliamentarians in the world!
September 19, 2023
In "The Coming Wave," Mustafa Suleyman, a Silicon Valley insider, presents a compelling narrative on the rapidly changing landscape of work due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies. This thought-provoking work provides deep insights into the existential threat these technologies may pose to traditional careers while also exploring the new avenues they open up. However, the book is equally interesting for what it suggests about the future of authorship in a world where AI tools like chatbots are becoming increasingly sophisticated.
Suleyman walks the reader through the many ways in which AI technologies are revolutionizing various industries, from healthcare and education to manufacturing and transportation. He highlights the efficiencies that these tools can bring but doesn't shy away from discussing the societal and ethical implications, particularly for the workforce. The author does an excellent job of breaking down complex subjects into digestible parts, ensuring that the book is accessible to a broad audience.
One of the strengths of "The Coming Wave" is its insider perspective. Suleyman brings a Silicon Valley lens to the subject matter, offering a vantage point that is rarely available to the general public. This perspective adds a layer of credibility and urgency to the discussion. Readers are compelled to consider how rapidly these technologies are advancing and what it means for the future of work and society at large.
Interestingly, I noted a subtle but distinct feature of the book that reflects an emerging trend in the publishing industry—the use of AI tools in writing. Although I can't confirm this, the summary sections at the end of each chapter appeared unusually polished and formulaic, possibly indicative of AI augmentation. These sections serve as an example of how the lines between human-created content and machine-augmented content are beginning to blur, an issue that warrants attention in its own right.
July 21, 2023
Not really what I normally read but I did think it was informative and interesting.
May 31, 2024
Co-founder of first DeepMind (the company behind a couple of massive leaps in AI - AlphaGo, AlphaFold, acquired by Google), then Inflection AI and now (before the book published, I think) CEO of Microsoft AI, I think there are few better people than Mustafa Suleyman to write about AI. And I suspect there will be few better moments than now. This was a book I was looking forward to reading, and it didn't disappoint.
The book is divided into four sections. The first looks at the history of technology and how it spreads. The second gets into the detailing of the coming wave - two general purpose technologies - AI and synthetic biology, and associated technologies like robotics and quantum computing. This section also goes into the features and incentives that drive them. Part 3 takes a side step into the political implications of this on the nation state, the only institution that can temper the wave. The last section looks at what is the 'containment problem' - a wave of technology is near impossible to contain, history has ample proof, but can we still take a shot at it.
In the first section, Suleyman shows how technology has a clear, inevitable trajectory: mass diffusion in great rolling waves. New discoveries are used by people to make cheaper food, better goods, more efficient transport etc. As demand grows, competition increases, the technology becomes better and cheaper, and easier to use. From farming to the internet, history has enough examples. A big challenge is that the inventor has no way of knowing the nth order consequence (the 'revenge effects' of technology - fridge makers didn't start out with the intent to punch a hole in the ozone later), and once a technology is out there, there is very little we can do to contain it. From fossil fuel emissions to opioid abuse to space junk, this is the story. The only partial exception is nuclear weapons.
There is a fascinating story in the beginning of the second section on DQN, an algorithm the DeepMind team created to play the game Breakout, and it discovered a strategy that most humans didn't think of. The trailer for AlphaGo. The section also goes deep into synthetic biology and robotics. Apparently, one can buy a benchtop DNA synthesiser for $25k.
But this section is even more important because it brings out the four intrinsic features of this wave that compound the containment problem. One, it has a hugely assymetric impact. Which this has happened before (cannon vs a large set of people) it has been scaled massively with the internet and now AI (a single algorithm can hold massive systems to ransom). Two, they are developing fast - hyper-evolution - providing very little time to react, let alone regulate ((look at cars vs the frequency of the versions of GPT). Third, they are omni-use (AI can be applied in multiple domains, and can come up with compounds for cure or as poison). And fourth, its degree of autonomy is beyond any previous technology.
Add to that the incentives and the containment problem just gets magnified. Geopolitics and the power involved, a global research system that has rituals rewarding open publication - curiosity and the pursuit of new ideas, financial gains, and the the most human one of all - ego.
The third section is on the impact of all this on the nation state. He calls out that technology is not value-neutral, and quotes Langdon Winner, "Technology in its various manifestations is a significant part of the human world. Its structures, processes and alterations enter into and become part of the structures, processes and alterations of human consciousness, society and politics." From the printing press to weapons, tech has helped build the nation state. My favourite chapter in this is 'Fragility Amplifiers' - from robots with guns to lab leaks to 3d printing everything, even people with good intent can cause things to go wrong. "What does the social contract look like if a select group of 'post humans' engineer themselves to some unreachable intellectual or physical plane?"Add to it massive job displacement, and other social issues and the nation state faces challenges far beyond the standard issues of the day. The possibilities are a continuum from an extremely powerful nation state to completely decentralised groups of individuals.
In the last section, he looks at nine ways, working in cohesion to provide some sort of containment. Technical safety, audits, using choke points, maker responsibility to build in controls from the start, aligning business incentives with containment, helping governments build tech to regulate tech, international alliances for regulation and mitigation, a culture of sharing errors and learning from them, public input to make this all accountable. The tenth point he makes is that there is no silver bullet that will take us to any permanent solution. It is a narrow path which humanity must walk on. That probably is the biggest lesson.
I found the book full of great insights and perspectives, and written in a way that makes it accessible to those outside tech. An important book for everyone to read since it's a pragmatic look at what the future holds for the species.
Notes
1. (Life + Intelligence) x Energy = Civilisation
2. Liverpool's MP William Huskisson was killed under the wheels of the locomotive during the opening of the Liverpool - Manchester line, the first passenger railway because the crowd had no idea of the machine's power!
4. How the stirrup changed everything. Faced the rider to the horse, and the ability to power through. It became a leading offense strategy, and changed Europe. Horses - church land for rearing- ties to the kingdom - feudalism.
3. Today, no matter how wealthy you are, you simply cannot buy a more powerful smartphone than is available to billions of people
4. Primum non nocere - "first, do no harm". (Hippocratic Oath)
The book is divided into four sections. The first looks at the history of technology and how it spreads. The second gets into the detailing of the coming wave - two general purpose technologies - AI and synthetic biology, and associated technologies like robotics and quantum computing. This section also goes into the features and incentives that drive them. Part 3 takes a side step into the political implications of this on the nation state, the only institution that can temper the wave. The last section looks at what is the 'containment problem' - a wave of technology is near impossible to contain, history has ample proof, but can we still take a shot at it.
In the first section, Suleyman shows how technology has a clear, inevitable trajectory: mass diffusion in great rolling waves. New discoveries are used by people to make cheaper food, better goods, more efficient transport etc. As demand grows, competition increases, the technology becomes better and cheaper, and easier to use. From farming to the internet, history has enough examples. A big challenge is that the inventor has no way of knowing the nth order consequence (the 'revenge effects' of technology - fridge makers didn't start out with the intent to punch a hole in the ozone later), and once a technology is out there, there is very little we can do to contain it. From fossil fuel emissions to opioid abuse to space junk, this is the story. The only partial exception is nuclear weapons.
There is a fascinating story in the beginning of the second section on DQN, an algorithm the DeepMind team created to play the game Breakout, and it discovered a strategy that most humans didn't think of. The trailer for AlphaGo. The section also goes deep into synthetic biology and robotics. Apparently, one can buy a benchtop DNA synthesiser for $25k.
But this section is even more important because it brings out the four intrinsic features of this wave that compound the containment problem. One, it has a hugely assymetric impact. Which this has happened before (cannon vs a large set of people) it has been scaled massively with the internet and now AI (a single algorithm can hold massive systems to ransom). Two, they are developing fast - hyper-evolution - providing very little time to react, let alone regulate ((look at cars vs the frequency of the versions of GPT). Third, they are omni-use (AI can be applied in multiple domains, and can come up with compounds for cure or as poison). And fourth, its degree of autonomy is beyond any previous technology.
Add to that the incentives and the containment problem just gets magnified. Geopolitics and the power involved, a global research system that has rituals rewarding open publication - curiosity and the pursuit of new ideas, financial gains, and the the most human one of all - ego.
The third section is on the impact of all this on the nation state. He calls out that technology is not value-neutral, and quotes Langdon Winner, "Technology in its various manifestations is a significant part of the human world. Its structures, processes and alterations enter into and become part of the structures, processes and alterations of human consciousness, society and politics." From the printing press to weapons, tech has helped build the nation state. My favourite chapter in this is 'Fragility Amplifiers' - from robots with guns to lab leaks to 3d printing everything, even people with good intent can cause things to go wrong. "What does the social contract look like if a select group of 'post humans' engineer themselves to some unreachable intellectual or physical plane?"Add to it massive job displacement, and other social issues and the nation state faces challenges far beyond the standard issues of the day. The possibilities are a continuum from an extremely powerful nation state to completely decentralised groups of individuals.
In the last section, he looks at nine ways, working in cohesion to provide some sort of containment. Technical safety, audits, using choke points, maker responsibility to build in controls from the start, aligning business incentives with containment, helping governments build tech to regulate tech, international alliances for regulation and mitigation, a culture of sharing errors and learning from them, public input to make this all accountable. The tenth point he makes is that there is no silver bullet that will take us to any permanent solution. It is a narrow path which humanity must walk on. That probably is the biggest lesson.
I found the book full of great insights and perspectives, and written in a way that makes it accessible to those outside tech. An important book for everyone to read since it's a pragmatic look at what the future holds for the species.
Notes
1. (Life + Intelligence) x Energy = Civilisation
2. Liverpool's MP William Huskisson was killed under the wheels of the locomotive during the opening of the Liverpool - Manchester line, the first passenger railway because the crowd had no idea of the machine's power!
4. How the stirrup changed everything. Faced the rider to the horse, and the ability to power through. It became a leading offense strategy, and changed Europe. Horses - church land for rearing- ties to the kingdom - feudalism.
3. Today, no matter how wealthy you are, you simply cannot buy a more powerful smartphone than is available to billions of people
4. Primum non nocere - "first, do no harm". (Hippocratic Oath)
December 6, 2023
2.5 stars rounded up.
The market has become oversaturated with books on the topic of coping with artificial intelligence in recent years, and this book doesn't really stand out among the morass. Mustafa Suleyman's claim to fame here is that he cofounded DeepMind in 2010 and stayed on in some capacity through 2019 (Google bought the company in 2014).
The part of the book I took issue with the most is Suleyman's lack of knowledge into genomics and synthetic biology, and the frightening implications of his misassertions. Specifically this passage:
"DNA screening on all synthesizers is an absolute must, and moreover the whole system should be cloud based so that it could update in real time according to newly understood and emerging threats. Swiftly detecting an outbreak is just as important in this schema, especially for subtle pathogens with long incubation periods. Think of a disease dormant for years. If you aren’t aware of what’s happening, you can’t contain it."
- how do you do "DNA screening" on synthesizers? This makes no sense. A synthesizer produces sequences of genetic material per the specifications you input, or the template sequence you put in. I think Suleyman must be referring to "DNA sequencing" but didn't have a biology-literate copyeditor.
- Why is it relevant to input your synthesizer sequence to the cloud to detect outbreaks? If someone is nefariously trying to synthesize genetic material to create a pathogen, they'd be strongly disincentivized to broadcast this information to the cloud, or to purchase a sequencer with such a feature that can't be turned off.
- What about data privacy and various countries' health sharing and anti-discrimination policies if the DNA being sequenced or synthesized relates to an individual humans' disease status or genetic predisposition?
- Suleyman is neglecting the fact that many countries already perform routine surveillance for new pathogens in their epidemiological efforts, with mechanisms other than DNA sequencing for some unknown pathogen. Viral pathogens can also have RNA genomes, which you'd miss if you're specifically targeting DNA. There is also a lot of utility in culturing pathogens and having medically- and epidemiologically-trained experts on the ground surveilling (see Beating Back the Devil: On the Front Lines with the Disease Detectives of the Epidemic Intelligence Service).
Overall, there have been many better books published on this topic that either have more comprehensive fact-checking performed on areas where the author isn't an expert, or maintain a scope where the author is a subject matter expert. Here are some I'd recommend:
The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity by Amy Webb
Deep Medicine: How Artificial Intelligence Can Make Healthcare Human Again by Eric Topol, MD
The Loop: How Technology Is Creating a World Without Choices and How to Fight Back by Jacob Ward
The Industries of the Future by Alec Ross
The market has become oversaturated with books on the topic of coping with artificial intelligence in recent years, and this book doesn't really stand out among the morass. Mustafa Suleyman's claim to fame here is that he cofounded DeepMind in 2010 and stayed on in some capacity through 2019 (Google bought the company in 2014).
The part of the book I took issue with the most is Suleyman's lack of knowledge into genomics and synthetic biology, and the frightening implications of his misassertions. Specifically this passage:
"DNA screening on all synthesizers is an absolute must, and moreover the whole system should be cloud based so that it could update in real time according to newly understood and emerging threats. Swiftly detecting an outbreak is just as important in this schema, especially for subtle pathogens with long incubation periods. Think of a disease dormant for years. If you aren’t aware of what’s happening, you can’t contain it."
- how do you do "DNA screening" on synthesizers? This makes no sense. A synthesizer produces sequences of genetic material per the specifications you input, or the template sequence you put in. I think Suleyman must be referring to "DNA sequencing" but didn't have a biology-literate copyeditor.
- Why is it relevant to input your synthesizer sequence to the cloud to detect outbreaks? If someone is nefariously trying to synthesize genetic material to create a pathogen, they'd be strongly disincentivized to broadcast this information to the cloud, or to purchase a sequencer with such a feature that can't be turned off.
- What about data privacy and various countries' health sharing and anti-discrimination policies if the DNA being sequenced or synthesized relates to an individual humans' disease status or genetic predisposition?
- Suleyman is neglecting the fact that many countries already perform routine surveillance for new pathogens in their epidemiological efforts, with mechanisms other than DNA sequencing for some unknown pathogen. Viral pathogens can also have RNA genomes, which you'd miss if you're specifically targeting DNA. There is also a lot of utility in culturing pathogens and having medically- and epidemiologically-trained experts on the ground surveilling (see Beating Back the Devil: On the Front Lines with the Disease Detectives of the Epidemic Intelligence Service).
Overall, there have been many better books published on this topic that either have more comprehensive fact-checking performed on areas where the author isn't an expert, or maintain a scope where the author is a subject matter expert. Here are some I'd recommend:
The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity by Amy Webb
Deep Medicine: How Artificial Intelligence Can Make Healthcare Human Again by Eric Topol, MD
The Loop: How Technology Is Creating a World Without Choices and How to Fight Back by Jacob Ward
The Industries of the Future by Alec Ross
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May 13, 2024no rating due,
because first off i‘m not sure how to rate non-fiction and second I don’t think i‘m in the right place to judge this book. I did have problems actually reading it. I would find myself dozing off while reading and realizing i was reading but not ACTUALLY reading and my thoughts had been somewhere completely different. It was written quite densely and used big words. It was informative, but quite hard to follow in terms of knowing what exactly we were talking about. The Author does seem really experienced in this field which is cool to feel like he is talking to you. I feel like for me personally there was a lot of new terms, but you might enjoy it if you are really passionate about knowing more about AI.
because first off i‘m not sure how to rate non-fiction and second I don’t think i‘m in the right place to judge this book. I did have problems actually reading it. I would find myself dozing off while reading and realizing i was reading but not ACTUALLY reading and my thoughts had been somewhere completely different. It was written quite densely and used big words. It was informative, but quite hard to follow in terms of knowing what exactly we were talking about. The Author does seem really experienced in this field which is cool to feel like he is talking to you. I feel like for me personally there was a lot of new terms, but you might enjoy it if you are really passionate about knowing more about AI.
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