The quarterback market revolution: Examining the decade's financial landscape in the NFL
The moment Jared Goff signed his four-year extension with the Detroit Lions on Monday, his $53 million yearly average put him as the second highest quarterback in the NFL, just behind Joe Burrow and his $55 million. People who closely follow football throughout the offseason immediately started wondering where the market is and where it’s going.
Teams move money around and usually backload quarterbacks' deals. But that always happened. A historical assessment of the quarterback market shows us how the position's value has abruptly increased over the last decade, and the buyer’s beware might be real when the player is not truly elite.
How to evaluate the market
The percentage of the cap is much more important than the yearly average, because that approach allows us to consider inflation and the market landscape year after year.
And the discourse is fair to a certain degree. It’s never been more expensive to pay a quarterback.
According to Spotrac, at the moment of the signing, the average of Goff's deal was 20.75% of the salary cap. Ten contracts of active quarterbacks have cost their teams more than that in the cap of the signing year.
The Bengals extended Joe Burrow last year, and the average of his deal cost them 24.47% of the 2023 season's cap.
In 2011, the first year with a rookie-wage scale in the NFL, the 20.75% of the cap was an unimaginable outcome — and we are not even discussing Jared Goff's level of play yet. At that time, the highest-paid quarterback was Peyton Manning, who extended his deal with the Indianapolis Colts for 14.95% of the cap in 2011.
Just four quarterbacks were above 10% of the cap back then — and this is not the percentage of the cap year by year, but the percentage of the cap in the year the player signed his deal. These players were Manning, Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers. Tom Brady re-signed with the New England Patriots in 2010, an uncapped year, but his average number ($18 million) would be 14.95% of the 2011 cap as well. That means Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, for example, were below that mark.
2011 - Highest % of the cap in the year signed (APY)
- Peyton Manning 14.95%
- Michael Vick 13.29%
- Ben Roethlisberger 12.64%
- Philip Rivers 12.44%
- Drew Brees 9.80%
Thirteen years later, Manning's percentage of the cap would be the 17th-highest at the position in the NFL. Basically every franchise quarterback who is not on a rookie contract makes more than that. Ten quarterbacks are above 20% of the cap, even excluding Russell Wilson, who has been released by the Denver Broncos and is playing under a minimum salary for the Pittsburgh Steelers just because he has offsets in his old deal.
2024 - Highest % of the cap in the year signed (APY)
- Joe Burrow 24.47%
- Josh Allen 23.56%
- Justin Herbert 23.35%
- Lamar Jackson 23.13%
- Patrick Mahomes 22.70%
Maybe analytics showed the NFL how valuable a quarterback is, and how difficult it is to build a strong roster without an elite — let alone a viable — passer. A decade ago, there was some sort of quarterback market stagnation. The extension Aaron Rodgers signed with the Green Bay Packers in 2013 was 17.8% of the cap, and that led the league until Rodgers himself signed a new deal five years later.
In this decade, though, the market moves every year, every offseason. The highest-paid quarterback is always the next one. Right now, Burrow has kept the title from a year to another, but there's a great chance he will soon be surpassed. And it doesn't take an established elite QB to do that.
Highest percentage of the cap tied to the QB in the year of the contract
- 2011: Peyton Manning 14.95%
- 2012: Drew Brees 16.58%
- 2013: Aaron Rodgers 17.80%
- 2014: Aaron Rodgers 17.80%
- 2015: Aaron Rodgers 17.80%
- 2016: Aaron Rodgers 17.80%
- 2017: Aaron Rodgers 17.80%
- 2018: Aaron Rodgers 18.91%
- 2019: Aaron Rodgers 18.91%
- 2020: Patrick Mahomes 22.70%
- 2021: Josh Allen 23.56%
- 2022: Aaron Rodgers 24.15%
- 2023: Joe Burrow 24.47%
- 2024: Joe Burrow 24.47%
Explosion and the advent of a middle class
Josh Queipo and Kyle Dediminicantanio have made contract projections for A to Z Sports throughout the offseason. After the top 105 free agent list, they have also done several for extension candidates.
That includes Jordan Love ($50 million per season), Tua Tagovailoa ($49 million), and Dak Prescott ($47.5 million). And after Goff got $53 million, those numbers could easily be much higher.
Curiously enough, though, there is now a middle class of quarterbacks too — something that had been lost two, three seasons ago.
Over the last two years, six quarterbacks have signed deals averaging between $20 million and $40 million — Daniel Jones ($40 million), Aaron Rodgers ($37.5 million), Derek Carr ($37.5 million), Baker Mayfield ($33.3 million), Geno Smith ($25 million), and Jimmy Garoppolo ($24.25 million). It’s not unrealistic to say that the deal the Atlanta Falcons gave to Kirk Cousins ($45 million) closes the new middle class, but it’s probably a tier above that.
The real middle class costs the teams what an elite quarterback would ten years ago, but at least it's a viable way to keep solid starters without compromising the rest of the roster construction so much.
"The Bucs were able to get major value out of Mayfield's deal and it's not just his $33.3 million AAV, which looks like a steal when comparing it to other QB contracts," said Evan Winter, A to Z Sports managing editor who also covers the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. "They can part ways with him after 2024 if things go horribly wrong and create more than $2 million in cap room via a pre-June 1 release. If they find a trade partner, they can save over $12 million. And Mayfield's 2025 base salary is a whopping $30 million. If things go well in 2024, the Bucs can restructure that number and create a substantial amount of cap room, too. It's a win, all around, for the Bucs and for Mayfield - all he has to do is keep playing like he did in 2023 and he'll be fine."
Goff's case
You could reasonably argue that paying elite money to non-elite quarterbacks is a fatal flaw in NFL roster building. The Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff, the Philadelphia Eagles with Carson Wentz, the Cleveland Browns with Deshaun Watson, and to a lesser degree the New York Giants with Daniel Jones, all suffered after overpaying a non-elite passer.
So why did the Lions do that? Well, that's because their perception of Goff is different. Apparently, they do think he has become an elite quarterback.
"I'll be honest, I think Goff is elite. We're talking about someone that's spent the last two seasons in the NFL in the top five of every major passing category there is. He was PFF's highest-graded quarterback for much of the 2023 season, and he ended the year at 10th," said Mike Payton, who covers the Lions for A to Z Sports. "Only one quarterback has turned the ball over fewer times in the last 2.5 years, he just led the Lions to their first division title in over 30 years and then their first trip back to the NFC Championship in over 30 years. He's elite. Nobody else could do that. Matthew Stafford couldn't even do that."
Goff also quarterbacked the Rams to a Super Bowl in 2018, but years later the team traded him away to acquire Stafford trying to elevate their ceiling — which they did. Goff has been really good with top surroundings, but the questions are how much can he elevate a non-perfect situation and how much will his new deal affect the Lions overall roster construction.
Who deserves and who doesn't
There is always a difference between theory and reality. In theory, it's much easier to refuse to pay a good quarterback trying to find a great one. In reality, teams know how difficult it is to find a Patrick Mahomes, and that's why you frequently see general managers willingly overpaying non-elite QBs. Competency is valuable.