Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears is the team’s latest attempt at finding a viable backup for Derrick Henry. Is Spears worth drafting as anything more than a handcuff, though? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Tyjae Spears’ Fantasy Outlook
I’m not sure if Henry has ever had a viable handcuff. Of course, he’s largely been a marvel of health during his career. But even when he missed half of the 2021 season after breaking a bone in his foot, the two guys that primarily filled in, D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard, weren’t even signed until after Henry got hurt.
Last season, the Titans had Hassan Haskins and Julius Chestnut behind Henry. During the one game Henry missed, Haskins was completely ineffective as the lead back.
The Titans didn’t make any changes to their backfield outside of drafting Spears in the third round. That is not insignificant draft capital. He is their highest-drafted running back since Henry himself in 2016.
Spears certainly does not profile as a three-down back. He weighs 201 pounds and ran just a 4.54 40-time at his pro day, putting his speed score in the 30th percentile.
In college, Spears didn’t really see a remotely significant workload until his senior season. Of Spears’ 427 college carries, 229 of them came last year.
With that said, Spears was able to rip off 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground. While Spears is not a three-down back, he could fill that role in a pinch should Henry miss time. However, there’s no scenario where Spears assumes anything close to Henry’s workload.
Where Spears could carve out a role is as the primary passing-down back. He wasn’t an overly productive pass catcher at Tulane, but he did post an 8.2% target share in his final season. I would stop short of calling him a receiving back, but he’s definitely capable of playing that role — certainly more so than any other back on the roster.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Spears at His ADP?
Spears currently has an RB62 ADP, No. 175 overall. He is almost certainly going to get drafted in a standard-sized 12-team league, but he’s clearly not a priority among fantasy managers.
I am still a believer in Henry. Even though he’s 29 years old, he hasn’t shown any meaningful signs of decline. And historically, running backs as talented as Henry are able to maintain a high level of play past the point at which lesser running backs typically decline.
With that said, Henry has amassed 1,877 career touches. No running back has touched the ball more over the past four seasons. Had he not gotten hurt in 2021, Henry would’ve led the NFL in carries for four consecutive years. If healthy, he will probably do it again.
But Henry is, in fact, 29 years old. I don’t think he will fall off a cliff this season, but the possibility certainly exists. When it does happen, it will likely be swift and precipitous. There won’t be a gradual decline. He will be elite, and then he will just be done. If that happens this season, Spears is the heavy favorite to benefit.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections
A guy like Spears is the ideal late-round dart throw. You don’t want players who will produce enough to justify a roster spot but not enough to start. You want players who will be useless until they are not. You want players with real, tangible upside. That is Spears.
My projections for Spears do not matter, as I am not projecting Henry to get hurt. While I don’t believe Spears will have any standalone value, the potential does exist in deeper leagues.
I have Spears ranked at RB59. Once you get into the RB5/6 range, it’s really up to you who to take a shot on. Spears is as viable as anyone.