From the present to the future Free Press mailbag: Jets face pivotal off-season decisions after playoff disappointment By: Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe Posted: 3:44 PM CDT Sunday, May. 12, 2024 Last Modified: 9:45 AM CDT Monday, May. 13, 2024 Updates

The offseason came earlier than expected for the Winnipeg Jets, whose Stanley Cup aspirations came to a screeching halt after just five postseason games.

Not surprisingly, talk quickly shifted around here from the present to the future.

That is reflected in this month’s Free Press mailbag, where plenty of questions concern what needs to happen next — from coaching to players to systems — for this franchise to finally realize it’s dream.

As always, hockey writers Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe are here to offer their two cents.

In your opinion, who are the top three candidates to be the next head coach of the Jets? –STEVE

Mike McIntyre: Kenny did a great piece last week outlining a half-dozen potential candidates, so I’ll weigh in with my take here.

I believe associate coach Scott Arniel is the heavy favourite, for a few reasons. Firstly, he knows the players and organization and system better than any candidate, and his fingerprints were all over the group that went 52-24-6 during the regular season and captured the Jennings Trophy as the stingiest squad in the land.

He’s respected, has strong roots in Winnipeg (including playing junior hockey with Dale Hawerchuk, being part of Jets 1.0, captaining the Manitoba Moose later in his career and later coaching the squad), and we know how much True North values those elements. As well, I suspect Rick Bowness would provide a ringing endorsement, as would many of the current players on the team.

That said, the Jets would be wise to not rush into anything and keep their eyes and ears open. Personally, I’d have former Oilers bench boss Jay Woodcroft and former Minnesota Wild head honcho Dean Evason in my top three. Perhaps we see a scenario where Arniel ultimately gets the gig, but someone else with experience is brought in to fill his former role behind the bench. Woodcroft’s brother, Todd, is a former Jets assistant, while Evason is no stranger to the Jets from the often-heated Central Division battles with the Minnesota Wild, and it probably doesn’t hurt that he’s from Manitoba.

There’s plenty of other intriguing candidates out there, too. Speaking of which…

Is there any truth to rumours of the Jets’ interest in Sheldon Keefe? Or is it really just a formality Scott Arniel is the next head coach of the Jets?

Ken Wiebe: Elliotte Friedman mentioned on his 32 Thoughts podcast that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets were interested in speaking with Keefe after he was fired by the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday and that makes sense on a number of levels.

His regular season record is tremendous and Keefe fits the profile of someone who is expected to apply the valuable lessons learned in his first NHL head coaching job in his next stop. Keefe won a Calder Cup with the Toronto Marlies in 2018 and his brother Adam was once a feisty winger with the Manitoba Moose of the AHL. So, the folks at True North would be familiar with Keefe’s work and respect his ability.

It’s not a formality that Arniel is the next head coach, as a full interview process is expected to transpire. But it is fair to say Arniel is the front-runner for the job, given his resume, which was boosted by the job he did filling in for Bowness during the past two seasons.

3. There is a lot of discussion regarding the personnel make-up of the Jets re playoff grit, experience etc. I’ve read many people say they need more playoff savvy veterans.

I’m under the impression that the opposite is required. An injection of youthful hunger should be on the menu.

A few hungry young guys (hopefully with sandpapery personalities, because I think the Jets lack ‘mean’ in their lineup) would not only help but also improve the salary structure for other additions.

What do you think? –ADRIAN

MM: First off, there’s no question the NHL is getting younger, with plenty of youth thrown right into the mix and often enjoying success.

Look at Logan Stankoven of the Dallas Stars as one example. He was tearing up the AHL this year as a rookie, then got called up and is now a primary part of a club that is just two wins away from reaching the Western Conference Final. (He had two goals in Saturday’s victory over the Colorado Avalanche).

That said, I don’t think you can just toss a bunch of fresh-faced players into the lineup and expect them to have immediate success because they might be viewed as more “hungry.” Spots have to be earned, and there’s no doubt the Jets have a few promising kids knocking at the door.

Whether it’s someone like Cole Perfetti, who I wish had been given more of a chance in the playoffs, to prospects like Ville Heinola, Brad Lambert and Nikita Chibrikov, who figure to push for work next season, there’s plenty to be excited about. Other than Chibrikov, none of those players have any real “sandpaper” elements to their game, but I don’t believe the Jets were ousted by the Avalanche because they weren’t “mean” enough. It was more about not being able to stop their dynamic offensive players from doing as they please.

4. Would it be better to trade the likes of Nikolaj Ehlers for a good near ready prospect (given we are unlikely to get a top 4 experienced D in such a trade)? Much like picking up Gabriel Vilardi we received ‘potential’ in exchange for ‘known’.

This may result in having a younger D core (fully expecting Ville Heinola to be in the top 6 and possibly Elias Salomonsson) but given we have no other near ready prospects this may be the right path. Then in 2 or 3 years we have mixed in the young forwards and let the younger D gain experience.

A lot of the D discussion to me comes down to the fact that our prospect pool in this area is quite weak. –ERIC

KW: The prospect of moving Ehlers is something the Jets may have to consider, given his contract status (going into the final season of his contract before having the ability to become a UFA in the summer of 2025), but trading him for a near-ready prospect isn’t something I expect or would endorse.

The only way it really makes any sense to trade Ehlers (if he’s not interested in signing an extension) is to get a bona fide top-4 D-man and potentially recoup some draft capital in any prospective deal. Any team acquiring Ehlers is likely going to need permission to see what he’s looking for in an extension to maximize the return, if the Jets decide to go down that road.

As for the prospect pool, the Jets don’t have an abundance of players pushing to be in the NHL next fall but not sure it’s fair to call the defence prospects weak either. Salomonsson had an excellent season in the SHL (in Sweden), helping his club team capture a championship and is someone who will be pushing for NHL duty sooner than later.

It’s true the Jets have more organizational depth in the prospect pool up front compared to defence. If Heinola can show he’s ready to be an NHL regular and Salomonsson does the same in the next season or two, the defence corps has the potential to become a position of strength — especially if the Jets acquire a quality D-man in a trade for Ehlers.

5. In the final post-game interviews with Bones, Adam Lowry and Josh Morrisey, all mentioned play-off “intensity”, or a lack of it. So, it appears that a level of intensity below 100 per cent can get the Jets through the long regular season but when other teams ramp it up for the post-season, the Jets don’t respond.

Why would that be?

I suggest it is a lack of commitment to the team and the city. We all know Winnipeg is on most every NHL player’s no-trade list. They do not want to come to Winnipeg.

Similarly, most (not all) of the current Jets players (and their wives/girlfriends) could care less about Winnipeg and would happily take a move to almost any other NHL city.

So when that extra playoff intensity is needed, most of the roster have no pride in the city or the jersey they are wearing, no motivation to “bust through the wall.” Your thoughts? –GARY

MM: As for the idea the Jets didn’t have the requisite intensity, that was certainly apparent at times. They were caught by surprise at just how hard the Avalanche came at them, and perhaps a 3-0-0 record in the regular-season provided a false sense of security.

However, I don’t believe it has anything to do with the city the players are representing. Rather, it has everything to do with a savvy, Stanley Cup champion (2022) squad that absolutely schooled a more inexperienced Winnipeg group. Trust me when I say that this group of Jets took plenty of pride in wearing a Jets uniform, and their tremendous regular-season record reflects that.

They didn’t just flip a switch when the hockey stage got bigger. Rather, it seems they suffered a bit of stage fright. In that sense, there’s a chance for some valuable lessons to be learned out of this most recent disappointment, the way the Avalanche suffered some tough love prior to finally breaking through a couple years ago.

6. Do the Jets need to replace the whole right side of their defencemen in addition to a 2nd (or 1st) line centre to make the next step towards the Stanley Cup? –GEORGE

KW: Replacing an entire right side of the defence corps is not something many teams do because of how difficult it is to rebuild. Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff had to try and do this as recently as the 2019-20 season and that was no easy task trying to replace all of Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers on the right side — along with Ben Chiarot on the left side for good measure.

The Jets’ defence corps hasn’t been the same since the departure of those players, so it’s fair to say they need an upgrade on the right side to take the next step towards the Stanley Cup. Both Nate Schmidt and Pionk are entering the final season of their respective contracts before they can become an unrestricted free agent and Dylan DeMelo is set to become one on July 1, so change could be coming out of necessity.

Mark Scheifele is a No. 1 centre and his seven-year extension is about to kick in, so he’s going to hold down that job for the foreseeable future. Keeping Sean Monahan or bringing in a suitable alternative as the second-line centre is a top priority. Brad Lambert could be a consideration, but he could be heading back to right wing if the Jets can find a way to have a more experienced option down the middle.

7. Are any players or coaches sticking around town this summer or all they all gone to various training facilities? –DAVID

MM: The majority of players and coaches head to their non-hockey homes, where family and friends typically remain and they can combine some personal rest and relaxation along with the all-important training. That’s not a slight on Winnipeg, nor is it unusual for any NHL club.

For example, you’ll find the majority of Manitobans currently playing in the NHL will spend the bulk of the next few months right here in River City, with many of them training and skating (and golfing) together at local facilities. At Bowness’ retirement scrum last week, only Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton and Vlad Namestnikov were still around, less than a week after the season had ended.

A few players to have properties here in Winnipeg and will no doubt spend some time enjoying our wonderful but all-too-brief summer before the cavalry truly arrives in September prior to training camp.

8. Has Neal Pionk ever played forward? Seems to me he could be a massive pain to opponents with his skating and aggressive nature. –DALE

KW: During a conversation with Pionk, he shared that he grew up playing forward in minor hockey before shifting to defence. But he’s enjoyed the switch to defence and won’t be switching back anytime soon. His aggressive nature is a quality that would serve him well up front, but it’s something that does the same when he’s playing his best as a defenceman.

There’s no doubt it was a tough opening round series against the Avalanche for Pionk, but that’s not going to prompt a position change for him during the offseason. Pionk, who is going into the final season of his contract before he can become a UFA, is going to need to elevate his level of play in order to maintain top-4 minutes. Otherwise, a shift to the third pairing could be on the horizon.

9. Do the Jets have different coaches for the penalty kill/power play and why, after all year, were both so bad? –DOUG

MM: Although the buck always stops with the head coach, NHL teams typically delegate special teams to various assistants. In the case of the Jets, Arniel was in charge of the penalty kill, while assistant coach Brad Lauer manned the power play. It’s safe to say both fell short of expectations and were sources of concern throughout the season and into the playoffs.

Winnipeg’s power play was 18.8 per cent during the season, which was 22nd in the NHL but dead-last among the 16 teams who qualified for the postseason. The penalty kill was 77.1 per cent which was 21st (fourth-worst among playoff teams). It’s hard to pinpoint why it went south, considering the same coaches were at the helm a year earlier when the power play went 19.3 per cent during the season and the penalty kill 82.4 per cent.

To me, the PK is the bigger issue. The PP looked a lot better when Gabe Vilardi was in the lineup and I believe they already have the high-end talent to make it work. I’m not so sure about the PK. If Arniel ultimately gets the top job to replace Rick Bowness, at least one new assistant/associate coach will be hired (assuming the remaining staff stays intact).

I suspect someone with PK success on their resume would be a target. Same goes for roster tinkering this summer, either through trades or free agency. The Jets must address this obvious weakness.

10. What do you think the Jets have planned for Rasmus Kupari next year? –COLE

KW: Going into the season, former Jets head coach Rick Bowness made a point of saying the organization didn’t really know what they have in Kupari and nothing that happened last season provided any clarity.

There were some flashes from Kupari and his blazing speed was evident at various points, but it didn’t translate into much in terms of results. Kupari never got himself going after missing time with a shoulder injury he sustained in November in a game against the New Jersey Devils and he was relegated to healthy scratch duty with regularity down the stretch.

The Jets haven’t lost faith in Kupari, who they’ve had interest in dating back to his draft year, but he finds himself in a situation where he’s going to have to turn heads in order to ensure he has a regular spot in the lineup next season. Kupari might have to move from centre to the wing for that to happen. He’s a tenacious forechecker, but the 20th overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft has now gone 69 regular season games without finding the back of the net.

To take the next step in his journey, he’s going to have to find a way to produce a bit more offence in a complementary role.

11. In seeing that Brad Lambert made the AHL All-Rookie Team, he joins a list of players that includes Sami Niku, who had quite the impact on the league as a freshman.

His star rose and faded very quickly and I sometimes wonder how that happened.

Niku will be 28 this fall. He’s not old. Do you see a day where he might be back in the NHL? –JONATHAN

MM: Niku could be a cautionary tale for many young players that a modicum of success at one level doesn’t guarantee anything at the next level. While it’s true he had a productive rookie campaign with the Moose in 2017-18 (54 points in 76 games), he was only ever to turn that into 67 NHL contests — 54 with Winnipeg, 13 with Montreal — before ultimately returning overseas where he’s spent the past three years playing in his native Finland.

Never say never, but I expect that’s the last we see of him in North America. He’s probably much more comfortable back home and able to carve out a good living. Niku had plenty in his tool kit, no doubt, but his biggest flaw was he simply wouldn’t — or couldn’t — put the desired work in to take the next steps.

In some ways, maybe such a strong first year was the worst thing that could have happened, providing a false sense of security that everything was going to come easy. Hockey history is filled with similar “flash-in-the-pan” examples. It’s too bad, as on a personal level I always enjoyed chatting with Niku, who truly enjoyed his time in Winnipeg and even had purchased a house here to stay in the offseason.

12. What is your take on Rutger McGroarty ever becoming a Winnipeg Jet? The longer he takes to sign his pro contract, the less I believe he ever will be signing it with Winnipeg.

He said he’s going back to college, which I find completely baffling. It’s my opinion that if he doesn’t sign a contract around training camp, he will wait out his time and go to UFA, signing elsewhere.

Should Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff trade his rights if he holds out past training camp? –TOM

KW: Mike has written extensively on McGroarty and his relationship with the Jets after attending the NCAA Frozen Four tournament at Xcel Energy Center, so I’d like to share some thoughts on the subject as well.

First of all, I’m not sure what’s baffling about a 20-year-old wanting to go back for a third season of college hockey at a place he’s playing a prominent role at a school that has a highly respected program. Especially when you consider the serious nature of the injury he suffered last season before his somewhat miraculous recovery to play in the world junior hockey championship, where he captained Team USA to a gold medal.

The journey for McGroarty is still in the early stages and the reality is that he’s still got some work to do on his skating before he’s going to be playing a top-6 role with the Jets. There’s no guarantee he would have even been on the NHL roster this fall had he chosen to turn pro. The likelihood of him needing some seasoning at the AHL level was high and that probably played into the decision. That doesn’t suggest a divide between the player and the organization.

It’s worth noting that many of McGroarty’s teammates with the Michigan Wolverines decided to turn pro, but most of them are going to non-playoff teams where more ice time is available. McGroarty spending his junior season at Michigan isn’t going to stunt his growth, it will allow him the opportunity to continue to get better.

He’s not able to become a free agent until the summer of 2026 (after his senior season) if it reaches that point — and I don’t foresee a scenario where that happens. My expectation is that McGroarty enjoys a campaign where he’s in the running for the Hobey Baker Award and then signs his entry-level contract with the Jets next March or April.

With that in mind, trading his rights to another organization this fall isn’t something I see happening, nor is it necessary. And for clarification, the player isn’t holding out. He can’t sign a pro contract if he wants to maintain his college eligibility. McGroarty remains a top prospect in the Jets’ organization and his size, skill, character and leadership abilities will be welcome when he’s ready to take the next step in his career.

mike.mcintyre@freepress.mb.ca | X: @mikemcintyrewpg

ken.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca | X: @WiebesWorld