Todd in the Shadow's dedicated subreddit! Watch Todd's One Hit Wonderland, where he takes a look at the full careers of bands and artists known for only one song, or watch Todd's Pop Song Reviews, where he takes one current smash hit song and take it apart, break it down line by line, see what parts work and what doesn't, and analyze where it fits within both current trends and the artists' body of work.
This year so far has been fascinating, as it simultaneously feels like we both have young blood on the charts all the time, while we’re also focusing on the biggest stars that have been around for years. I mean what are the biggest stories of the year? The Taylor Swift discourse? Beyonce’s country album? The Drake/Kendrick beef? The Kanye discourse? Everyone involved has been huge for a decade plus.
At the same time this has happened, the top of the charts have been flooded with artists I had either never heard of or wouldn’t have called stars this time last year. Sabrina Carpenter, Shaboozey, Benson Boone, Teddy Swims, Tommy Richman, Hozier. There’s a chance most of these are one hit wonders, but that’s 100% not the case for Sabrina, Teddy and Hozier, and I could see any of these others being stars.
We’ve also seen disappointments this year from artists such as Justin Timberlake, Kacey Musgraves, Jennifer Lopez and Dua Lipa, making me think that the big releases from Future, Beyonce and Taylor are the last gasp of the 2010s stars.
2023 seemed like a light year, but with the new context I think it was the start of the transition to the next era of pop music. This is the last gasp of the dominance of Beyonce and Drake, and we’re now entering officially entering the era of Zach Bryan and Olivia Rodrigo. Or maybe I’m rambling
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I'm not sure if Hozier could reach the Top 100 again, but I guess that doesn't matter. He's still and will be what he's been for all these years: a cult artist that thrives in his very own niche and that doesn't need the charts to succeed.
I think whatever Hozier releases next will chart on interest alone. “Too Sweet” feels like the culmination of his years worth of underground popularity. He’s definitely bigger now than he was last year, and that was enough for “Eat Your Young” to debut at #67.
I feel like we can partly thank the splash of Noah Kahan and Zach Bryan for the chart return of Hozier, I'm sure people who haven't thought of him since Take Me to Church got back on his bandwagon after discovering an album like Stick Season
I think you might be right, which is funny because Noah Kahan is extremely open about Hozier being one of his biggest inspirations, and I would not be at all surprised if Zach Bryan felt similarly. Speaking as a fan of all 3 artists.
That said, I think Hozier's chart return is gonna go 1 of 2 ways. Either he'll release the second EP he's teased in interviews and have another hit, or there will be another 3 - 5 year gap between releases and the mainstream will forget about him again.
Hozier getting a number-one hit, combined with the troika of Glass Animals/Imagine Dragons/Twenty One Pilots all putting out lead singles that failed to gain traction on the Hot 100, suggest that the pop-alternative crossover space is returning to something resembling the early 2010s. Whether it stays that way is anyone’s guess. (FWIW, my out-of-left-field prediction for the summer is “I Saw the TV Glow becomes a sleeper indie box office hit, and a song from the soundtrack charts after going viral.” I make no claim of credibility.)
Kacey Musgraves album was a disappointment? I mean it’s not Golden Hour levels of good but I saw many people like it and I personally did too (especially Sway)
Though honestly other then Sabrina and maybe Shaboozey i can’t see any of these artist being that big, maybe only a couple more hits. Though I would love more Hozier songs on the chart!
I think Benson Boone could given some of his other songs are already charting.
Yeah, I enjoyed the Kacey album. It’s a lot better than the Dua album.
I absolutely love her album.
She didn’t lean into her country sound enough. Her SNL performance with steel guitar was was better than the album versions
It does feel like we're getting a new "freshman class" of rising stars, so to speak. I think many of their longevity will depend on how long the country/Americana and nu-disco booms go on.
I feel like we’re in that moment where the 2020s are now finally starting to have its own musical identity with the transition from the 2010s taking a bit longer than in previous decades due to COVID
What’s weird is 2019 really did feel like a turning point with huge new names like Billie, Lizzo, Lil Nas X with old town road, Megan seemed to have her breakthrough (that might have been 2019 it’s hard for me to tell personally cause I know people who were huge fans of her before she got big), DaBaby, Roddy Rich.
Also Future Nostalgia really cemented Dua as a superstar rather than a brief fad from her self-titled.
I was gonna mention Future Nostalgia but u couldn’t recall when that was from 2018-first two months of 2020
That was kind of an abortive start, like the whole thing Todd described with 1991
Yess I’ve been saying this, I thought 2021 was gonna be that year with the rise of Olivia, “TikTok pop” hitting the charts, and a slight shift in sound but then 2022-2023 both felt very stagnant. In rap though, I think that shift started and ended with whole lotta red on Christmas 2020
Hozier is not new
Yeah does nobody remember "Take Me To Church" anymore? Massive 2010s hit.
Not to mention getting releases of new music from The Beatles, The Rolling Stones, Pete Townshend and Billy Joel which seems surreal at this point.
Never thought in my lifetime we'd get a new Beatles single.
The Rolling Stones and Billy Joel have new music? Where have I been? Off to look them up
Billy Joel's "Turn the Lights Back On" is the first time I cried with a song in a while.
I don’t think Dua’s album is a disappointment because she got her biggest album sales week ever.
Also I think Benson’s the artist with the brightest future, given his follow-up is sitting outside the top 50.
I honestly think the Dua Lipa album (despite being a massive fan of Kevin Parker) could be viewed more negatively in hindsight the same way Prism is and I honestly think having listened to the album, that she hit lightning in a bottle with Future Nostalgia as it was the right album at the right time.
Benson Boone’s appeal is something I do not get at all as not only I’ve seen his style of music done better but he was discovered by Dan Reynolds (which remember when he championed X Ambassadors a decade ago).
I don’t think her having her biggest album sales week ever for an album that was by far her most anticipated automatically indicates it wasn’t a disappointment. Just because she had enough success with future nostalgia that everyone tuned in immediatly for Radical optimism doesn’t mean those ppl didn’t come away disappointed
It could just be off to a rocky start, which we’ve seen in the past (i.e. Rated R or Hands All Over)
The Kanye discourse has been going on since his mental health issues started which is around 2016, and it doesn't show signs of stopping. It also didn't affect his performance on the charts. Same thing with the Kendrick/Drake beef. They're all having success on the charts.
I'm not sure what you mean by the Taylor Swift discourse? You gotta elaborate some of these examples.
TTPD has been her most polarizing album yet. I saw people who never even mentioned Taylor Swift talk about it and some think it’s gonna be a train record
Having a load of bullshit discourse is not enough for a trainwreckord. If everyone agreed its terrible then maybe, bit it's an album that some people absolutely love to bits and that some people just think isn't that interesting.
I highly doubt its going to damage her career especially when we still have the eras tour and 2 new re-records. Love her or loathe her, Taylor ain't going away just yet
The album isn’t enough of an unmitigated disaster to be a trainwreckord. It’s overlong and boring, but if you like her music it’s not especially hard to find gems in there. It’s definitely not as polarising as Reputation was in 2017. Plus, Taylor Swift is faaaaar too big to fail at this point, even if she was just playing to the Swifties, there’s enough of those to ensure she’s not likely to suffer any real kind of commercial downturn.
Look at Drake (one of the only comparable artists and even he isn’t as big), consensus has generally been that he hasn’t put out a decent album in almost a decade, but still debuts at number one with his lead singles. Seemingly the only thing that looks like it could genuinely have an effect on his career is the content of Kendricks diss tracks, and even then it remains to be seen if even those allegations will topple him.
So, unless like Beyoncé or Olivia comes out with a bunch of diss tracks going into great detail about how she touches kids, I don’t think it’s gonna happen anytime soon.
I don’t agree that it’s gonna be a train record and some of the songs definitely did grow but I do think that since, unlike Midnights, critics were polarize by the album. I follow Taylor a lot and the one thing she likes more then commercial acclaim is critical acclaim so I wouldn’t be surprised if she changed her sound for TS12. I definitely don’t think the discourse is as big and important as the rap beef or the Beyoncé going country discord but it definitely was a big discorse. Hell I saw the rap sub make fun of her lyrics as well as subs I didn’t ever expect to see Taylor’s name in. A lot of people said it could end up as a beginning of a downfall for her which I don’t agree with but I do see where they are coming from
Oh I absolutely wouldn’t be surprised if she changed her sound for the next record, imo it’s exactly what she should do, she seems to have ended up in a bit of a rut stuck between the sounds of Lover & Folklore to diminishing returns. I really liked about half of Midnights but the problem was already becoming apparent then (tbh, you could make an argument it was starting to show on Evermore). I think a big issue is that the re-records and the vault tracks have given her the (probably true) impression that literally every single thing she writes is important and valuable to the fans, so she doesn’t self edit anymore and releases far too much mid/sub-par material way too prolifically, rather than coming out with a 12 track album of all killer no filler every 3 years.
As far as the discourse goes, if anything the worrying thing for Taylor is that compared to usual there seemed to be far less discourse, or at least less than would be expected from the biggest artist in the world releasing the most anticipated album of the year. It came out, she got clowned a bit, there was a bit of an argument over its quality, and then everyone outside of the Swifties kinda stopped talking about it after a week cos it wasn’t that great and there was rap beef to focus on instead.
If any Taylor Swift album was going to be a trainwreckord, it would have been "Reputation," which seems to not have slowed her down really at all, and is good and forgotten by this point.
Finding a "look what you made me do" defender was INFINITELY harder than it is to find a TTPD defender now.
Tbf, Reputation is loved for its deep cuts, not the singles (aside from delicate). Songs like getaway car, dancing with our hands tied, dress, don't blame me (which had a massive streaming surge years after the album dropped), call it what you want. It's a really solid love album once you get past the drama
I feel like a lot of these 2010 artists are fading away and will remain as a 2010s artist
Dua lipa just had the biggest first week sales of her career she is fine
charli boutta blow everyone outta the water
I don’t think neither Taylor nor Beyonce is going anywhere after these album cycles. Taylor is still a league above everyone else in popularity - I don’t think this recent album is going to produce a big mainstream hit in the same way as Anti-Hero or Cruel Summer, but that’s because this album doesn’t really have an obvious hit. If her next album has a potential hit, it will hit. The recent album does seem a little more fan-carried than Midnights was, but it still generated enough attention that she’s secured.
As for Beyonce, she’s in like her third (fourth?) wind right now and it seems like it’s just taking off. Renaissance & it’s tour have built up the Gen Z fanbase she missed out on my staying off streaming. Texas Hold ‘Em is her biggest hit since Single Ladies (is that debatable? it seems pretty clear to me), and generated the exact amount of public discourse she was likely aiming for. Looking at the last two albums, it doesn’t seem like she wants to be the singular biggest thing because she’s put basically zero effort into marketing or promotion after the albums released. She might be content to keep releasing albums that make cultural waves without becoming overexposed, which would keep her relevant longer
I Can Do It With A Broken Heart could maybe be a hit (deffo would've been were it the lead single) but yeah, TTPD really wasn't made with singles in mind like Midnights was but I don't think she needs singles.
Not really a Beyonce fan but she seems to have the same staying power as Taylor does. Maybe the 2010s artists will start to die out but both Taylor and Beyonce were superstars before the 2010s
The Swifties are exactly like Beyonce fans. Will follow her to the ends of the earth no matter what she does.
The Kacey Musgraves and Dua Lipa albums are great (imo), especially Kacey’s.
I swear, reading most of those names makes me feel so old. Maybe the Drake vs Kendrick of it all is just making the charts all wonky. You do bring up a good point with the OHW thing.
Who is “we”? Kacey’s album was lovely and far from a “disappointment”. Jesus Christ…
This year has been incredibly interesting. We've gotten some absolutely great music ("Too Sweet", "Like That", "A Bar Song" and "I Had Some Help" are personal faves) and a bunch of new artists who have made an impact. The music is overall much better than 2023's.
However, the lows get low. "Carnival" is possibly the worst song ever to hit #1, while Benson Boone has made some notoriously terrible music. Drake's "Taylor Made Freestyle" is also horrible. And for some reason Daya's "Hide Away" is getting popular on TikTok? That song is abysmal.
I like the year's music so far, so hopefully Todd is much more positive by the time the best/worst lists come out. That is until the other member of Florida Georgia Line releases his MAGA anthem that goes to #1 and ruins his mood.
What was the issue with Kacey’s album? I thought it was great and I’m not a country fan really
I’d argue it’s more of a folk-pop album with some country mixed in—her first two albums are her most overtly country by a long shot; her other three albums are much more likely to get pop fans onboard.
Hozier being called “pop” feels wrong
"Too Sweet" was the pop hit in a folk record, and now he has a pop audience that is somewhat interested. Personally I'm interested to see what he'll do with that.
It really does feel like there's a new class of superstars coming in, and it's a lot queerer than before. We've got Chappell Roan, Renee Rapp, Lil Nas X... I'm glad the charts are diversifying a bit more, but it's interesting that it's happening at the same time as homophobia in politics is ramping up again.
Nothing's been the same since Britney's been off the scene. Among mainstream popular music, hers demoed the vanguard of new styles and production before anyone else. Top song writers and producers are at sea without their muse and vehicle.
With the whole block movement going on, I have to agree
I don’t agree about Kacey. Star-Crossed wasn’t as well-received overall, but Deeper Well has done MUCH better in terms of fan reception and critical acclaim. She’s not the most outgoing person, so she may never be a huge mainstream star, but she’s definitely got her fanbase.
Maybe. Anyway there is always quality pop music released by more obscure artists. For instance, this Pixey song would have been the song of the summer in a better world.
I am quite scared at the fact artists are starting to ask us for presales without giving us a piece of content first. Like Taylor's album although some songs were catchy was a disappointment and I am glad I didn't spend money just streamed. I see Billie doing this too and I hope we as consumers nip this in the butt ASAP because it's kinda scammy. I listen to these artist for their musical talent not give them money because I like how they are percieved through media....
It's only 2024, by 2028 the popular music scene will look very different. I do agree about the identity aspect though, it is beginning to take shape into its own identity. I'd love to see Hozier stick around, never thought he would have another big hit.
It’s been a crazy year so far. Sometimes it takes months for an event release, but this year it kicked off immediately with 21 & Ariana, and it hasn’t stopped going: Eternal Sunshine, Megan’s diss track, Beyoncé’s country album, T-Swift & Post Malone, Hozier hitting no. 1, Chappell Roan blowing up on TikTok, Future’s double album, Drake & Kendrick’s rap beef. Every time the charts start hitting a slow point, something happens that makes everyone drop their shit & listen.
I feel like the other reason why we're seeing a decline in the big pop stars is just the decline of celebrity culture as a whole. With celebrities being more blatantly tone-deaf in current issues more than ever before (specifically irt COVID-19 and the Palestinian Genocide) and being a sign of wealth and power, people are sick of them and if anything they're easily the most detested group of people right now, second only to politicians and people in power.
Source (yeah I know its a tumblr post): https://www.tumblr.com/stimmingandstruggling/750231100106964992/does-this-not-fill-you-with-immense-pride-and
Hopefully Kendrick can get kicked out as drake reigns supreme
Tbh ive been tired of drake since certified boy lover came out and I hope something new comes and replaces him forcing drake to grow up and move into a new sound
Kacey Musgraves release was far from a disappointment though. It's a wonderful album with timeless music and some of her best songwriting to date.
There's no way Beyonce's dominance is over and Zach Bryan and Olivia Rodrigo replaces her. Zach Bryan is unknown in any country outside the US and Olivia has already shown signs of decline and in no way can compete with Taylor Swift.