Balloon Juice - War for Ukraine Day 815: The Glide Bombing Continues

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Somebody needs to explain to DeSantis that nobody needs to do anything to make him look bad.

Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

So many bastards, so little time.

Biden: Oh no. We’ve upset Big Pharma again.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Let’s finish the job.

No Justins, No Peace

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Found liable for massive fraud, is required to post a massive bond, gets a break, then files a *fraudulent* bond!

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

No one could have predicted…

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

The lights are all blinking red.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 815: The Glide Bombing Continues

War for Ukraine Day 815: The Glide Bombing Continues

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

As I begin writing tonight’s update – 7:30 PM EDT – air raid alerts are up for all of central Ukraine from north to south. Zaporizhzhia’s alert just dropped off. At 8:30 PM EDT as I get ready to hit publish, air raid alerts are up over all of eastern and central Ukraine except for Sumy Oblast. As is so often the case, the small hours before dawn are going to be long ones for Ukraine.

Today is also the Day of Remembrance for the Soviet Deportation of the Crimean Tartars:

The Russian are continuing to hammer Kharkiv with glide bombs.

The Russians are also still pounding away at Sumy Oblast:

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

Russian forces attacked ten border areas and settlements of Sumy Oblast on May 18, firing 46 times and causing at least 284 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.

The communities of Mykolaivka, Khotin, Yunakivka, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Novo Sloboda, Esman, Shalyhyne, and Seredyna-Buda were targeted.

The Russian military struck the communities using artillery fire, AGS-17 grenade launchers, FPV drones, and mortar shelling, while also dropping mines.

In the village of Esman, one person was injured as a result of mortar shelling attacks.

The town of Bilopillia experienced the most attacks, with 76 explosions recorded in the area. Bilopillia, which had a pre-war population of about 15,600 residents, lies just eight kilometers south of the Ukraine-Russia border.

Russian strikes against the Sumy region have become increasingly destructive in recent months. Amid intensified attacks, Ukrainian authorities ordered further evacuations from the region.

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Wherever the Situation is Difficult, Our Forces Give a Decent Rebuff to the Occupier – Address by the President of Ukraine

18 May 2024 – 19:17

Dear Ukrainians!

Today is a special day. Today we remember the year 1944 – the deportation of the Crimean Tatar people – and honor the memory of its victims. Unfortunately, our history is quite full of tragic pages – of things our people had to go through. But no matter how bitter or terrible these pages were, they will never become pages of lies, let alone the last pages for Ukraine.

Today, as we commemorate the victims of the deportation of the Crimean Tatars and condemn Russia’s abuse of Crimea, we feel, we know, that Russian evil is not and will not be omnipotent. The occupier’s time on our land is limited, and their expulsion is inevitable, and it depends on how we all resist, how we all try to unite the world, and how the world itself is determined – determined to protect humanity and life.

The Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 was indeed a test – a test of determination for everyone in the world. There was no proper reaction at the time, and Putin decided that he could allegedly outgrow Crimea, that he could allegedly do more evil – with impunity. February 24th put a stop to that – through the resistance of all Ukrainians, of all our people: different people – of different generations, of various views – who all equally deterred the occupier.

The historical point put then will never again become a semicolon for Ukraine. Moscow will never have a chance to conquer our country, our people, our consciousness and history. And now, in our battles for Ukraine, in our work for Ukraine, we have reached a level where Russian evil will not hide from our just responses even on its own territory.

I thank all our warriors and units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, who proved this week that the Russian state will pay for everything it does against our people and our society. I thank each of our warriors who showed sufficient resilience and managed to gain more confidence, especially in the Kharkiv direction, this week. The invaders are losing their infantry and equipment – it’s a significant loss, although, as in 2022, they were counting on a rapid advance through our land.

We also do not forget about other directions of combat besides the Kharkiv ones: Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, the southern directions – wherever the situation is difficult, our forces give a decent rebuff to the occupier. In particular, I would like to specially and separately thank the guys who repelled the Russian assault on Chasiv Yar. Our warriors destroyed more than twenty armored vehicles of the occupier. Well done, guys!

And I also thank every representative of our state – the entire diplomatic team of the Office, our government officials, our embassies, the civil society activists who are helping – I thank you for the steady, step-by-step progress in the preparation of the Peace Summit – the first Global Summit that will be held in Switzerland.

Together with our partners, we are preparing a real platform – a platform for the world that is truly capable of forcing Russia into peace, the world that Russia will not be able to deceive. This week we have added new participants to the Summit. At the level of Heads of State and Government alone, I had conversations with Georgia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Malawi, Portugal, Slovenia, France, Sweden, and Liberia, and I also spoke with the U.S. Secretary of State. And the next week will also be active in terms of diplomacy. Ukrainian diplomacy is working together with Ukrainian weapons for the sake of a just peace for our country and a just punishment for Russia for this war. We will definitely fulfill our Ukrainian tasks.

I thank everyone who helps! I thank everyone who chose Ukraine and ensures the strength and results for our country.

Glory to Ukraine!

“No one is going to give up” – President @ZelenskyyUa commenting on the Russian offensive.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with AFP that Ukraine will hold its defensive lines to stop any major Russian breakthrough, and the occupiers do not have enough forces for a “full-scale offensive on the capital.”

🔹The president called on China and the developed countries in the world to participate in the peace summit to be held in Switzerland. In his opinion, global players such as China “have influence over Russia.”

“The more such countries are on our side, I would say on the side of ending the war, the more Russia will have to move and reckon with them,” Zelenskyy said.

❗️According to the President, Ukraine has only “about 25% of what we need” to defend the country in terms of air defense. He added that “in order to have parity” with Russia, 120-130 F-16 fighters or other modern aircraft are needed.

Full interview:

The cost:

A brief fight update:

Washington, DC:

Georgia:

Tatiania Stanovaya has published a new article in Foreign Affairs, which is very good, however it is also being misunderstood. So she posted a thread to make her points explicit. Here it is from the Thread Reader App:

In my recent piece in Foreign Affairs, I argued that nobody in Moscow is looking for an exit strategy from the war; rather, people are prepared to fight as long as it takes. Many interpreted this as a thesis that Moscow will not negotiate with Ukraine or agree to a ceasefire. That is not what I was saying. Here are several points to make my understanding more nuanced: 1/

There is no discussion among senior officials in the Kremlin about negotiating with Ukraine or what compromises could be reached with Kyiv or the West. Decision-making on this issue is monopolized by Putin, and many senior officials simply guess what he wants but do not dare to initiate anything. The common belief is that Russia is winning, advancing successfully, and has the upper hand in Ukraine. Hence, they see no point in talking to the West, let alone Ukraine. 2/ 
Putin does not aim to storm Odessa, Kyiv, or even Kharkiv. First, he lacks the army for that. Second, he does not want to engage in large-scale battles. His strategy is to impose on Ukraine military pressure, diminish military infrastructure, and intimidate locals to coerce Kyiv into surrendering and accepting Russian demands. He will only take what he believes he can, given his limited military capacity and wait when Ukraine falls. 3/ 
Yes, Putin wants to talk, but strictly on Russian terms. He is concerned that a pause might be used by the West and Ukraine to rearm. Because of this, he will be extremely cautious about the conditions of any talks. 4/ 
He will not talk to Zelensky, as he does not believe Zelensky can deliver what Russia wants from Ukraine. Moscow has been signalling for months that the West must remove Zelensky. However, if Zelensky were to lift the ban on talks with Russia and open a window for negotiations, Putin might seize this opportunity (as a showcase and temporarily)—not to start real talks, but to demonstrate his readiness for negotiations, expecting, as well, it to accelerate Zelensky’s departure. Putin might also agree to a tactical ceasefire if reassured that it would not be used to rearm Ukraine and if he sees Ukraine is desperate and ready to discuss Russian demands. 5/ 
So, what are Russia’s demands? Putin’s flexibility will depend on the progress on three tracks, which are inter-dependable: 6/ 
1. Washington’s position: If Putin has any hope that the US might consider an “ironclad” ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership and other guarantees of neutrality, his position on two other tracks might soften.
2. Kyiv’s readiness to consider political demands: Putin wants a “friendly” regime in Ukraine—one that would exclude the emergence of anti-Russian forces. I will not go into details here, but If he believes he can achieve this, he may be flexible on territorial matters. It is important to say that I do not believe this is ever possible, but in Putin’s vision, it is no problem if Odessa remains Ukrainian as long as Ukraine is “friendly.”
3. Territorial Matters: If there is no progress on the first two tracks, Putin will continue a creeping offensive for as long as needed. If he is more successful militarily and gain more territories, he will become more contemptuous about first and second tracks. 7/ 
The point of my article in Foreign Affairs was that if there is no sign from the West that serious talks are possible (in Putin’s eyes and those of the Russian ruling elite there are no such signs), the only path is further escalation. No one is concerned about this unless it brings us to the brink of nuclear war—an eventuality that might split the elite (I do not urge to provoke the nuclear escalation). Until then, the political class will stick with Putin and support his military ambitions. 8/End 

The only appropriate response is to provide Ukraine what it needs so that it can find all Russian forces, fix them in place, and reduce them. Once the Russian military is reduced to the point of complete ineffectiveness, then, and only then, could negotiations begin.

Donetsk Oblast:

Another day, another SU-25 brought down by the Ukrainians.

Kharkiv:

Here’s the machine translation of Serhiy Bolvinov’s, the head of the Intelligence Department of the National Security Service, first tweet:

KAB flies straight into a high-rise building in the center of Kharkiv.

The video shows an enemy attack on a residential building on May 14 on the street. Sciences. A modified guided air bomb in the frame – we are also collecting such physical evidence.

The Russians are deliberately and purposefully shelling civilian residential buildings.

Russian occupied Crimea:

Chasiv Yar:

The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

The Avdiivka front:

The Kreminna front:

For you drone enthusiasts:

A crucial part of the drone war is not only their production, but also testing, installing firmware, and training of pilots directly in combat units.

The “Achilles” strike FPV battalion of the 92nd Brigade invites anyone to join their workshop and work together for victory. There is always enough work for anyone, even those without any experience.

https://t.me/brigada92_war/1660

 

DarthPutinKGB has posted his guide to tankies. From the Thread Reader App:

The Darth guide to different models of tankies. 🧵 
The “Basic” tankie. Russia has never invaded anyone ever. Russia become the world’s biggest country by peacefully defending itself in other people’s countries. 
The “Russia was provoked tankie”. NATO caused this war. It did this by being seen as a better option to Russia’s neighbors than Russia is and then by actually being a better option to Russia’s neighbors than Russia is. 
The “no to war no to nato” tankie. Opposes all forms of western imperialism, such as countries freely joining NATO. Appeases all forms of Russian imperialism, such as cities being flattened as they join Russia. 
The “anti imperialist” tankie. In the name of anti imperialism, Russia must be given a veto over the foreign policy of its neighbors and control who their head of state is. 
The “short skirt tankie”. Ukraine deserves to be invaded cos it was warned about flirting with other countries. 
The “what about” tankie. Thinks US doing something is wrong except if Russia does it when it’s right. 
The “academic tankie”. Pretends it is explaining Russia but is actually excusing it. Is unaware it sounds a lot like Kissinger. 
The “anti fascist” tankie. Supports a homophobic, sexist, frequently antisemitic regime that likes and funds fascists. 
The “fascist” tankie. Supports a homophobic, sexist, frequently antisemitic regime that likes and funds fascists. 
The “traditional values” tankie. Likes Russia cos we represent traditional values like legalised wife beating & mass kidnap of children. 
The “pro Hamas” tankie. Says you can’t go around grabbing pieces of land just cos your ancestors used to live there. 
The “Pro business” tankie. Thinks being able to change international borders by force & the dismantling of the international rules based order is a good for long term economic growth. 
The “defence contractors want this war” tankie. Thinks Russian defence contractors hope the war stops cos they’re ethical. Usually used to think the war wouldn’t happen in the first place. 
The “this is a proxy war” tankie. Doesn’t know/care that North Korea & Iran are waging a proxy war against the USA to the last Russian 
The “Ukrainians are forced to fight” tankie. Thinks as soon as the west stops arming Ukraine they and Russians will link arms and live happily ever after. 
The “let’s respect Russia” tankie. Thinks we can respect Russia and make the problem go away. Doesn’t care that this means treating Russia’s neighbors with disrespect. Cannot square this circle. Wears flannel a lot. 
The “this will cause nuclear war” tankie. Thinks Russia is not killing civilians, attacking civilian infra and is really nice. Also thinks Russia will kill every living thing on the planet if provoked. Aka Schrödinger’s tankie. 
The “let’s negotiate” tankie. This deal, finally, is actually the one Russia will actually stick too. Hasn’t noticed that Russian said it won’t negotiate 
The “appeasement tankie”. History teaches us this always works. Used to think the idea of the war was a hoax. 
The “MAGA tankie”. Is genuine US patriot 2nd amendment protect south border won’t vote for Iosef Bidenovich. Oddly interested in Ruble’s exchange rate to $. 
The “Brooklyn basement tankie”. Looks like less handsome Paul Giamatti. Knows everything. Has never been correct about anything. Doesn’t own soap. 
The “Irish” tankie. Looks at Ukraine. Sees its large, nuclear-armed eastern neighbor that has violent, imperialist, brutal history of conquest & cultural oppression against it & decides “No parallels here, those are the good guys in this”. 
The “tech/crypto bro” tankie. Thinks western weapons won’t be any difference, sending them will also cause nuclear war & any strike on Crimea will lead to a holocaust. Actually thinks female Z head influencers may sleep with him. 
The “we mustn’t escalate” tankie. Thinks west arming Ukraine is bad. North Korea arming Russia is ok. Will one day wonder were China got the idea invading Taiwan would be consequence free. 
The “blogger” tankie. Granny spoke Russian to it once a week till it was 9. Read 2 chapters of War and Peace. Has deleted a lot of tweets made between Dec 21 & Feb 22. 
The “CIA coup” tankie. Thinks Eastern Europeans can’t protest broken election promises themselves without American help while usually claiming to be anti racist. Believes one woman handing out biscuits is proof of this CIA plot. 
The “genocide in the Donbas” tankie. We all want to see this one debate this point with Prigozhin who said it’s bullshit but sadly Prigozhin found out what airdefense doing so we can’t. 
The “Russia is fighting all of NATO” tankie. NATO is amazing and the only reason hasn’t won. NATO is also shit cos it lost to goat herders on technicals in Afghanistan. 
The “NATO is an aggressive alliance” tankie. Russia had to invade to prevent NATO, which lacks the ammunition to invade Russia, from invading Russia even though it can’t 
The “pro Hamas tankie 2.0”. Says you have to let a nuclear power take over territory and remove the inhabitants to prevent nuclear war. Gets very angry, overloads & then reboots as the “what about tankie” when told about the irony of this. 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets today. Here is some adjacent material:

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

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  • Adam L Silverman
  • AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
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    16Comments

    3. 3.

      J. Arthur Crank

      @TaMara:   I am in for $125.  I tried to donate using the laptop and Google Chrome, but that hung everything.  I tried again from the phone and it seemed to work.

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Jay

      (((Tendar)))
      @Tendar
      3h
      Ukrainian authorities evacuated most of the patients in the Vovchans’k hospital before the Russian army scourge arrived, but unfortunately not everyone. This poor soul in the wheel chair tried to escape, but the Russian terrorist army murdered him, probably even more.

      This incident convinced Ukrainian forces that the now Russian-occupied hospital building had to be wiped from the face of earth. And they did this with lethal precision.

      x.com/maria_drutska/status/1…

      https://nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1791942762469711884#m

      (((Tendar)))
      @Tendar
      3h
      While the West is still contemplating how to proceed with frozen Russian assets, Russia is already moving against Western banks in Russia.

      This shouldn’t be a difficult decision, especially after this move.

      Source: ft.com/content/481d418e-9366…

      https://nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1791952319287787750#m

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Jay: That was the individual the Russians executed/murdered that I referenced last night and specifically said I wasn’t linking to it and no one needed to go look at either the video or the screen grabs from the video.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Jay: As for the banking, this is the same thing they’ve done with non-Russian companies that have tried to leave Russia in compliance with US and EU sanctions. Russia basically seizes all assets it can.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team

      Thank you as always Adam, hope you are getting some rest amid everything.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom's

      There are several excellent videos on the history & horror that Crimean Tatars have survived up on YouTube. I say survived because it’s been a very close thing. Yet another horror perpetuated by Stalin the results of which the world as well as the Tatars are living with. I wish I knew how to do embeds , but I can barely do links without making a mess, so that is a real problem.🤦

      Thank you Adam as always. I’m glad that Rosie & Ruby are both doing well. Now get some sleep!😂

      Reply
    15. 15.

      Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

      @Steeplejack: Thanks! I didn’t even notice! I will double check next time!😁

      While I’m here, CBC  has a documentary called Saving The Animals of Ukraine on YouTube. Watching it right now & it’s very good. Patron is featured in it. CW You may feel like chopping onions.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Medicine Man

      On this point, I could not agree with you more, Adam:

      “The only appropriate response is to provide Ukraine what it needs so that it can find all Russian forces, fix them in place, and reduce them. Once the Russian military is reduced to the point of complete ineffectiveness, then, and only then, could negotiations begin.”

      I still believe western leaders will come around to this understanding as well, in time. The agonizing thing is it will be gradual and Ukrainians are going to pay a fearsome price in the meantime.

      Reply

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