Best Bets For UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
The UFC is back at the Apex to give us one more fight night before the holiday break. Headlining the card is a featherweight contest between two dynamic strikers, 12-ranked Edson Barboza and undefeated Lerone Murphy.
There are 12 scheduled bouts in total, including five fights on the main card, and seven on the prelims. It's a heavy-prop betting card, but I still managed to slip in two money line dogs into this week’s best bets for UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy.
Best Bets for Barboza vs. Murphy
Barboza ML vs. Murphy (+124; DraftKings)
The UFC likes to incrementally challenge its international prospects. They have slow-rolled Murphy thus far, but now the process speeds up dramatically for England’s favorite undefeated fighter.
Barboza is a killer on the feet with a very unique striking acumen. His arsenal of kicks has produced several highlight-reel knockouts. He is coming off two impressive wins (Yusuff, Quarantillo) where he came through for bettors in a similar role as a small underdog. I don’t see why he can’t do it a third time.
If there is a knock against Murphy, it’s that he doesn’t fight with enough urgency. Compound a tendency to start slow with the fact that he hasn’t faced a kickboxer of this caliber, and the early rounds should be all Barboza. It’s possible Murphy settles and scores big later in the fight, but there isn’t a big enough striking disparity to get me comfortable that he can sweep the later rounds.
There were a few impressive takeaways from Barboza’s latest win that could factor into this contest. I loved that the veteran showed the willingness to mix in a few takedowns, and also the mental fortitude to handle adversity against a much younger fighter. I believe Barboza is the better kickboxer, and holds all the cards as far as dictating the grappling. The Brazilian stuffs takedowns at a 75% rate, almost 30% higher than Murphy, and has done it against much stronger competition as well.
Dating back to 2018, Barboza has come through for bettors in four of his last fights as an underdog. Considering how I see this playing out, I have to trust him with my money once again.
More Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
Rodriguez to win by decision vs. Carnelossi (+100; BetMGM)
This bout packs a little more power than your typical women’s MMA fight, which is why we are getting attractive odds for the decision-based props. It only takes one glance at Ariane Carnelossi’s impressive physique to realize she hits like a cannon. The problem is, she is a one-dimensional fighter, and isn’t technically proficient enough to command where the fight takes place. That’s what will separate these two fighters on Saturday.
Piera Rodriguez has enough pop to keep her opponents off-balance. She has the faster hands, and should be able to counter when Carnelossi inevitably charges forward. Carnelossi lands with only 40% accuracy, and has been outstruck by a significant margin in three of her four UFC fights. As long as Rodriguez can avoid getting her lights shut off, it’s her fight to lose.
I like her chances considering that getting Carnelossi to the ground has been close to automatic (allows 92% success rate). Having the ability to rack up control time will allow Rodriguez to change the pace, swing the momentum and win rounds as she sees fit. In the UFC, Rodriguez has delivered both times as a small favorite (-116; -167), while Carneloss is 0-2 as the betting underdog. The decision prop is slightly correlated to Rodriguez’s best path to victory, so let’s utilize it as a way to lock in a better price with the favorite.
Brahimaj ML vs. Gorimbo (+120; DraftKings)
I always earmark fighters coming off a quick knockout win to see if they are overvalued in their next bout. That’s the case here with Themba Gorimbo. It only took “The Answer '' thirty-two seconds to dispatch Pete Rodriguez back in February, and opened the week as a -198 favorite against a fighter who presents some stylistic challenges. Brahimaj is coming off an extended layoff due to a spinal injury, but the market betting down to a +120 underdog makes me comfortable he is live to pull off the upset.
On the feet, both fighters are low volume averaging 2.30 and 2.47 significant strikes per minute. Gorimbo would be best served to utilize his kicks and his five-inch reach advantage to turn this into a kickboxing match at distance. However, I don’t see it playing out that way.
Grappling is a big part of Gorimbo’s game. He averages 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I am willing to bet he underestimates the dangers of Brahimaj’s submission prowess. Gorimbo also likes to get inside and let a few winging hooks fly, opening himself up to be taken down.
When betting on a ‘submission or bust” fighter, you want to make sure you have a few outs. I see multiple scenarios where Brahimaj can ensure the fight plays out exactly where he wants it. Once this one hits the mat, I will be happy my money is on the guy who has submitted his opponent in all ten of his career wins.
Yanez to win by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission vs. Salvador (-135; DraftKings)
Adrian Yanez was once flying up the ranks by viciously knocking out every challenge the UFC put in front of him. Then last year, the hype train quickly derailed after suffering consecutive TKO losses to Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez. His rapid rise and fall has led him to this very favorable matchup against Vinicius Salvador (0-2 UFC), in what should be a classic “get-right” fight.
If you can stomach laying upwards of -400 on Yanez’s moneyline in this spot, you are better than me. However, I still think this is a lopsided fight we can profit from. Salvador’s brawling style is tailor-made to be picked apart by the clean boxing of Yanez. More importantly, Yanez is a proven finisher, with the instincts and composure to sequence fight-ending combinations once his opponent is wobbled. Yanez has finished his opponent in five of his last six wins. Rather than lay that massive money line price, let’s bank on him to get it done inside the distance.
Hill to win by decision vs. Pinheiro (+100; FanDuel)
Anything is possible once the cage door closes. That being said, when I see the over 2.5 rounds sitting at -445 odds, there is a great chance I will be doing my shopping in the prop market. Luckily for us, I found Angela Hill at close to even money to win by points. This is a great bet to snatch up a solid price on a small favorite.
If you’re judging Hill by her age or her record, you’re doing it wrong. Not only does she have three wins over her last fights, but she did it against some impressive names. There are a few factors that jump off the page when I look at this matchup.
Hill might be 39 years of age, but she didn’t show any signs of slowing down in her latest win over Denise Gomes. She mixed in five takedowns while outlanding Gomes 76-62 in significant strikes (including 37-25 to the head). Her opponent, Luana Pinheiro, has a tendency to gas out in the later rounds. Whenever I can get a volume-striker versus someone with questionable cardio, I push my chips in. The style of fight is going to lead to Pinheiro emptying her tank quickly.
Hill also has enough veteran experience to know when to gas pedal her opponent and put her in positions where she has to work. Factor in that Pinheiro is coming off a bad knockout loss, and this was a bet I couldn’t pass up.