May 14, 2024 - Russia's war in Ukraine

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday, marking the first visit of a Biden administration official to Ukraine following the long-delayed passage of US supplemental funding to the war-torn country, the State Department announced.

Coming amid Ukrainian setbacks on the battlefield, Blinken intends to send a “strong signal of reassurance to the Ukrainians,” the official said.

Blinken will also discuss “the other steps that we’re taking to provide long-term assurance and commitment on the security front to the Ukrainians, including our bilateral security agreement,” the official added.

During his fourth visit to Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion, Blinken is also scheduled to meet with civil society and private sector partners as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. US officials acknowledge that the slowdown in US support, due to congressional infighting, has exacerbated a challenging situation for Ukraine.

Read the full story.

Cinese leader Xi Jinping will welcome Vladimir Putin to China on Thursday for the Russian president’s second visit in less than a year – the latest sign of their growing alignment amid hardening global fault lines as conflict devastates Gaza and Ukraine.

Putin will arrive in China just over a week since entering a new term in office, extending his autocratic rule until 2030 – the result of an election without any true opposition.

His visit, set to take place May 16-17, according to Chinese state media, mirrors Xi’s own state visit to Moscow just over a year ago, where he marked the norm-shattering start of a new term as president – like Putin, after rewriting rules around how long leaders can serve.

Their meeting comes months ahead of the American presidential elections and as Washington faces mounting international backlash over its support for Israel’s war on Gaza. It’s set to provide a platform for the leaders to discuss how all this can advance their shared ambition to degrade and offer an alternative to American power.

The visit also comes as the two leaders operate within what observers say is a loose but growing coordination of interests between avowedly anti-American countries Iran and North Korea. Pyongyang – which has an economy almost entirely dependent of China – is believed by Western governments to be aiding Russia with war supplies, as is Tehran, which is being bolstered economically by Russia and China and is a powerful player in the conflict in the Middle East.

Read the full story.

Uraine’s top general says the situation in the northern Kharkiv region has “significantly worsened” after Russia claimed to have captured four further villages as it expanded its surprise cross-border offensive.

A Ukrainian regional official insisted Russia’s progress was not yet “significant” but admitted ground fighting in the area was spreading. Meanwhile, speaking on British television, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron acknowledged it was an “extremely dangerous moment,” adding that Russia had effectively “invaded [Ukraine] again.”

The precise goal of Russia’s new push – which began in the early hours of Friday morning – is unclear. It may be to create a buffer zone designed to reduce Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, or possibly even a renewed assault on the city of Kharkiv, 30 kilometers (18 miles) to the south.

Equally, it could be an attempt to draw Ukrainian forces away from other key Russian objectives further south – which was the rationale Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered in his Sunday evening address.

“The idea behind the attacks in Kharkiv region is to stretch our forces and undermine morale and the motivational foundations of Ukrainians’ ability to defend ourselves,” he said.

According to information from the Defense Ministry in Moscow, Russia now claims control over nine Ukrainian border villages, which are clustered in two areas, now just a few dozen kilometers apart, to the northeast of Kharkiv city.

Read the full story.

Rssian President Vladimir Putin’s weekend government shakeup appears to be the triumph of competence over loyalty: The Kremlin leader has replaced his camping-and-fishing buddy head of the country’s defense ministry with someone widely seen as a competent technocrat.

That, at least, seems to be the immediate takeway after the Kremlin announced that Andrey Belousov, a civilian economist and former first deputy prime minister, would take over the top slot at the Russian Ministry of Defense from Sergei Shoigu, who had served in the post since 2012.

Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser at Russia’s Central Bank, put the shakeup down to the growing interrelationship between the war and Russia’s economy.

“Putin’s priority is war; war of attrition is won by economics,” Prokopenko wrote in a thread on X. “Belousov is in favor of stimulating demand from the budget, which means that military spending will at least not decrease but rather increase.”

Such a move makes sense when one views the war in Ukraine as a contest between the defense manufacturers of the West, which supplies Ukraine with ammunition and military hardware, and those of Russia.

US and NATO officials already concede that Russia is massively outproducing the West when it comes to production of artillery ammunition: NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN indicate that Russia produces roughly three times more artillery shells per year than the US and Europe for Ukraine.

Read the full story.

The changing language used by the Ukrainian military in 72 hours of daily updates tells the story: “Ongoing defensive fighting.” “Significantly worsened.” Russian “tactical success.”

You rarely ever hear Kyiv’s top brass sounding downbeat, but their steep southerly trajectory reflects the grave place Ukraine finds itself in. Russia is not just advancing slowly in one place; it appears to be advancing in four, across the frontline.

Moscow knows it is on the clock: in about a month, the $61 billion of US military aid will start to translate into Ukraine having the weapons it has been begging for. So, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be throwing whatever he can at it, knowing the fight will likely only get tougher for his forces in the summer ahead.

First, and most acutely troubling, is the northern border near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city. Russian forces have crossed the border in multiple locations and claim to have seized nine villages. Their move 3 to 4.5 miles (5 to 7 kilometers) into Ukraine, in the border area above Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv, is arguably their fastest advance since the first days of the war.

And secondly, Russia can again tie up Ukraine’s over-stretched army with constant and grinding pressure on Kharkiv, exacting a toll with crude shelling on a vast urban center.

Ukraine’s rhetorical response has been telling. Its leaders have, for once, openly said how bad it is. They appear to be shuffling commanders around – which is not something you do in the heat of battle without desperate reason. There is vocal criticism of the failure to prepare and fortify the northern border regions over the past year.

Read the full analysis.