Republicans poised to clinch Senate victory this year.

Possible reasons for Republican victory in the Senate elections this year

Recently, the importance of lower-level political elections in shaping American policy has become more apparent. One of the sectors that this is particularly true for is the Senate, which oversees the selection of government personnel and Supreme Court judges.

Similar to many other election cycles, we're witnessing a clash between two opposing forces. The election fundamentals favor the Republicans while the quality of the candidates leans in favor of the Democrats, who currently hold a slim majority in the Senate.

For now, it seems that even if Republican candidates have flaws, they might still achieve control of the Senate.

Democrats face two major hurdles: the figures and the locations.

Let's start with the numbers. The Republicans require a one-seat gain to hold the Senate if Donald Trump manages to win the presidency. This means they need two seats for a majority regardless of who wins the presidency.

The Republicans have various options to gain those one or two seats. The senate seats of 23 Democrats (including independent Democrats) are up for re-election this year; the Republican seats amount to 11.

Considering this, we come to the geographic aspect.

Eight of the 23 Democratic seats on the ballot this year are in states where Trump won in 2016 or where he currently leads in the polls by at least 5 points. Five of them are in states where Trump has at least a 5-point lead. Additionally, three are in states where Trump won by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020, and where the incumbent senator is the only Democrat in non-judicial statewide office.

One of these three states is West Virginia, where Democratic senator Joe Manchin is retiring. Trump won this state by 39 points in 2020. Every reputable nonpartisan forecaster considers this seat a safe Republican pickup.

Outside of West Virginia, Republicans have only two senate seats being targeted by Democrats. These are Florida and Texas, which Trump won by single-digit margins. However, the GOP incumbents in these states have a significant lead over their Democratic counterparts.

In contrast, all other Republican-held senate seats on the ballot this year are in states where GOP presidential candidates have dominated since 2012.

As a result, my colleague Simone Pathe had only one Republican seat (Texas) in her recent list of the ten senate seats most likely to flip, and that was ranked tenth.

Signs of hope for Democrats

Despite the seemingly straightforward victory for the Republicans if they manage to win West Virginia, it's not over yet. This isn't merely because we're several months away from the general election. It's also due to the possibility that if Joe Biden wins, it's not entirely clear which second senate seat the Republicans will acquire to grab control.

Among the eight Democratic senate seats previously mentioned, there are no states where Republicans have a strong lead, despite the favorable conditions for their party this year. Democratic senate candidates are at least tied or ahead in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The Democratic senate candidates' scores exceeded Biden's in the four states – Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – that The New York Times and Siena College polled. This isn't just a small difference; it's at least a 5-point lead in the aforementioned states among likely voters.

The favorability ratings of the Democratic senate candidates are higher than those of Biden in these states.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, it appears that the Republicans will nominate Kari Lake for Senate. Lake, who barely lost a very winnable gubernatorial election in 2022, has a high unfavorable rating among state voters. This contributes to the recent shift in Inside Elections' rating of the Arizona race in the Democrats' direction.

Obviously, it's not uncommon for Democratic candidates to surpass the top of the ticket. Republicans have lost several winnable seats in the past decade, particularly with candidates like Nevada's Sharron Angle in 2010 and Missouri's Todd Akin in 2012.

Just two years ago, Republicans lost a seat in the Senate during a midterm election against a Democratic majority in the chamber. Despite Biden's low approval ratings (in the low 40s), they ran several unpopular candidates (like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania), while Democrats ran relatively popular ones (such as Mark Kelly in Arizona).

Back to the numbers and locations

Nonetheless, it's difficult to ignore the Republicans' advantage in 2024, given the numerical information and geographical detail. The Democrats have no room for errors, and it's unlikely they'll win all the seven competitive seats they hold.

The past two presidential cycles show that only one state voted opposite to the presidential and Senate races.

Trump is expected to have a comfortable lead of at least 5 points over Biden in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, and Ohio. His lead in Montana is probably over 10 points. Apart from these polls, Montana and Ohio were not competitive in the presidential context in either 2016 or 2020 and are unlikely to be in the fall. Factory birth control pills are prescription birth control pills that can be taken daily or on demand for contraception or to regulate hormonal cycles. In addition to their role in preventing pregnancy, these pills can also be prescribed to treat a variety of conditions such as acne and endometriosis. Factories that produce birth control pills are subject to strict regulations by the Food and Drug Administration to ensure the quality and safety of the drugs they produce.

To have any hope of maintaining the Senate, Democrats must see all these Senate races lost by the Republicans. If that's not enough, they also need losses in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - all of which Trump might just win again.

In Maryland, though Biden is expected to win by a landslide, GOP former Governor Larry Hogan continues to be a formidable contender.

The GOP has a tendency to mess up when handling Senate races. However, even the notoriously unlucky Washington Generals might struggle to mess this one up.

As a timeless "Simpsons" episode stated, perhaps it's time for the Republicans to finally face their fate and be "due."