By the smallest of margins

Good Tuesday morning. This is Stefan Boscia.

LAST NIGHT IN THE COMMONS

ALL PART OF THE PLAN: After facing days of attacks from her new Labour colleagues, Natalie Elphicke may just have found a route to redemption. Elphicke’s vote (arguably) made all the difference on Monday night as the Commons defeated a government-led motion and voted to ban MPs from the parliamentary estate if they have been arrested on suspicion of violent or sexual offenses. The free vote could not have been closer, finishing 170-169. Labour and Lib Dem MPs cheered it to the rafters.

What happened? The House of Commons Commission had — twice — recommended a panel should be set up to consider banning MPs from parliament if they had been arrested for a violent or sexual offense. Opposition MPs were deeply unhappy when the government instead proposed a much higher bar — the point an MP is actually charged with such an offence. But it was still assumed in SW1 that the motion, led by Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, would sail through the Commons with the government’s tacit support, even though it was a free vote in parliament and there was no whipping operation in force.

Not so fast: But more than 150 Tory MPs took advantage of the non-whipped vote to simply not show up. And an amendment by Lib Dem MP Wendy Chamberlain and Labour MP Jess Phillips to bring in a ban from the point of arrest attracted the support of the vast majority of Labour, Lib Dem and SNP MPs, along with a group of eight Conservatives — including Theresa May. 

Sliding doors: You can make a strong argument that Elphicke’s vote won the day, given the knife-edge margin of victory. Even Conservative aides admitted on Monday night that Elphicke would have been very unlikely to vote for a Lib Dem-Labour tie-up on parliamentary standards a week ago, back when she was still a right-wing Tory. All this, of course, comes days after Elphicke faced allegations (which she denies) of trying to get the ex-attorney general to intervene in her ex-husband’s court case for sexual assault.

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The big picture: Much more importantly, of course, the result is a big win for parliamentary campaigners who have long decried the lack of safeguards against accused sex offenders. In an impassioned speech during the debate, Phillips said that just prior to the vote she had met with two women who had been raped by MPs. “That’s a fairly standard day for me,” she said.

Successful collab: Chamberlain said the vote was “an important step towards making parliament a safe and modern place to work.” She added: “It is not about the guilt or innocence of any individual MP, but about safeguarding.” Phillips posted her shock on X after the vote, writing: “Shit! We won the vote by 1.”

Timely speech: Fresh off Monday’s vote, Labour Shadow Commons Leader Lucy Powell will announce her plans to crackdown further on misconduct in Westminster. She will say at the Institute for Government that “turning the page on public perceptions of politics and parliament will require hard work, but Labour is prepared to do the hard yards.” LabourList’s Katie Neame has a write-up, while Powell also sat down for an interview with the i’s David Parsley.

Not everyone is happy: Jacob Rees-Mogg told Sky that the proposal was a “power grab” as some Tory MPs complained that the new rule would punish potentially innocent people.

NOW READ THIS: POLITICO’s Esther Webber and Aggie Chambre have a timely read out on how Starmer’s new-look Labour Party is finding friends in the unlikeliest places — from Elphicke to Donald Trump. But Starmer’s internal critics have begun to clam up as they learn to prize unity, or the appearance of it, above all. Read more here.

DRIVING THE DAY

HAPPY DEFENSE DAY: Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will confirm plans to build six more naval ships in a speech this morning as the government continues to talk up its security credentials. Deputy PM Oliver Dowden and other senior ministers will be out in Saudi Arabia on a trade mission with a clear geopolitical subtext, while the head of GCHQ is also making a speech. Labour, meanwhile, has just sent two of its most senior shadow Cabinet members to Ukraine to speak about the country’s efforts to repel new Russian attacks. Definitely a day for armchair generals.

You had me at sea lasers: The Telegraph’s Danielle Sheridan spoke to Shapps before his Lancaster House announcement, with the defense secretary hailing a “golden age” for British shipbuilding. The six new ships, which were first reported by the FT’s Lucy Fisher last month, will be equipped with new British-made Dragonfire lasers which can hit targets from a kilometer away. “As nations like China and Russia invest heavily in their militaries, we must make sure the U.K. leads our allies so that the West is not left behind,” Shapps told the Telegraph.

Lord of the seas: Shapps’ speech is happening at the excellently titled First Sea Lord’s Sea Power Conference at Lancaster House at 11.30 a.m, and you can catch him before that on this morning’s broadcast round. It’s all something of a victory lap for Shapps, given he called for Britain to dramatically ramp up its defense spending at the same venue in January. His calls were heeded by Sunak last month, as the PM committed Britain to a dramatic increase in defense spending. The Tories are now making national security a key pillar of their election strategy, with Sunak asking Brits on Monday: “Who do you trust to keep you safe?”

Stuck in the middle with you: A Labour official accused the government of trying to “pull the wool over the public’s eyes” as they claim Shapps is “re-announcing plans for ships.” The truth is somewhere in the middle on this one. Trade mag Navy Lookout reported in 2023 that Britain was planning on procuring the six new command ships along with the Netherlands, though the deal had not been confirmed yet. The Ministry of Defence is arguing that today’s confirmation could only happen with Sunak’s recent funding increase. 

2.5 for 45: An MoD insider told Playbook that Shapps’ speech will also be a chance to start “geeing up our allies” as Britain pushes for the NATO spending requirement to increase from 2 to 2.5 percent of GDP. (Sunak committed Britain to reaching the target by 2030 during his visit to Poland in April.) “It feels like there is an inevitability to 2.5 for NATO, and we think we’ll win that argument,” the insider said. Ministers are looking to bang the drum as loudly as possible in the lead-up to NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington this summer.

Also keep an eye on: GCHQ’s Director Anne-Keast Butler, who will be making a rare public speech up in Birmingham at the CYBERUK conference from 9.30 a.m. Felicity Oswald, chief executive at the National Cyber Security Centre, will also be speaking.

BEIJING’S MAD: China is furious about the arrests of three suspects charged with spying for Hong Kong in the U.K., with Beijing’s London embassy saying it “strongly condemn[s] the U.K.’s unwarranted accusation.” The Telegraph’s got the story.

HEADING OUT EAST: Labour will try to meet attacks on its defense credentials head on, after Sunak claimed Vladimir Putin would be “emboldened” if Keir Starmer becomes PM. The party revealed last night that Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Shadow Defence Secretary John Healey had met with Ukraine Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on a surprise trip to Kyiv on Monday. The pair reiterated Labour’s support for the government’s multi-year financial aid settlement for Ukraine during the trip.

Sticking fat: “As Putin seeks to divide the West, we visited Kyiv together to send a clear message that a change in government in the U.K. would mean no change in our military, diplomatic, financial and political support to Ukraine,” Lammy said. Healey told Reuters during the trip that a potential Labour government would “stand with Ukraine to confront Russian aggression and to pursue Putin for his war crimes.” PA’s Nina Lloyd has a write-up of the trip here.

In Kyiv today — Antony Blinken: The U.S. secretary of state touched down in the early hours of this morning, seeking to reassure Ukraine of America’s support as it faces down a reinvigorated Russian offensive.

Russia’s forces advance: The trips come as Russia prepares to launch further military incursions into Kharkiv while Ukraine waits for new Western weaponry to arrive. Kyiv said Monday that Russia was having “tactical success” in what could be Russia’s largest breakthrough since the early stages of the war. The Guardian has more.

Now read this: POLITICO’s Eva Hartog profiles Russia’s new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, a Keynesian economist who hasn’t served a day in the military. 

HEADING FURTHER EAST: Many in Whitehall will also have an eye on the situation in Gaza today amid an increasing Israeli offensive in the north and the south of the strip. Oliver Dowden will be in the region today as he arrives in Riyadh for Saudi Arabia’s Great Futures conference. Dowden is traveling with senior ministers and a delegation of British business leaders — but Sky’s Sam Coates hears the trip has a crucial subtext. 

Passing messages: Coates told the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast on Sunday that the deputy PM will be also relaying messages to Saudi leaders about the need for stability in the Middle East if they want long-term prosperity. Dowden will give a keynote speech at the conference this afternoon — before holding a series of bilats with Saudi leaders — and will talk about U.K. trade with the region. The Saudi regime has long helped Britain and the U.S. pass on urgent messages to other Middle Eastern states during conflicts.

BEER AND SANDWICHES

SOUTHWARK SHOWDOWN: Keir Starmer will have his long-awaited showdown with union bosses today as he updates them on Labour’s plans for workers’ rights — which he swears have not been watered down. Starmer’s team was insisting on Monday night that it was just a regular meeting, though the unions were saying otherwise. One union official Playbook that “it’s a very important meeting” and that “there is some nervousness” among the union bosses. 

What’s it all about? Some unions were left furious last week when a draft document of the party’s workers’ rights reforms appeared to show that Labour was toning down some of the proposals. This reportedly included calls for further business consultation on any new laws, and rowbacks on promises to introduce legislation within 100 days of a new Labour government and to completely ban on zero-hour contracts. To properly swot up on it all — the FT’s Jim Pickard and Guardian’s Jessica Elgot both got their hands on the new proposals last week.

Home fixture: Starmer will be on home turf today, with the 11 union bosses set to meet him in Labour’s Southwark HQ building this afternoon. Playbook is told the unions will meet separately at 1.30 p.m., before their rendezvous with Labour’s most senior figures. Starmer is set to have his deputy Angela Rayner, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves and party Chair Anneliese Dodds by his side for the meeting. 

We want answers: Union bosses are looking for assurances from Starmer that the original New Deal for Working People, penned by Rayner, will stay intact. Starmer promised it would during a trip to Wolverhampton on Monday. However, some in the labor movement are skeptical. A second union official told Playbook that if “Labour continues to bang the drum for this new document there will be fireworks.”

Why does it matter? A rowback on some of the proposals would likely create internal strife for Starmer, particularly among the left of the party and the unions. Rayner’s reforms are seen as a key olive branch to organized labor, while Reeves has often talked about the need to strengthen workers’ rights as a part of her “securenomics” agenda.

Get on board: Paddy Lillis, general secretary of the more moderate shopworkers’ union Usdaw, told the FT’s Jim Pickard that other union bosses should quit sniping and just back Starmer. “If we don’t get a Labour victory in the election then there won’t be any New Deal at all,” he said. “There’s no reason to believe Keir Starmer will roll back on it.” One Labour insider told Playbook there’s “a lot of nuance and complexity in this legislation” and that the party need not rush it through parliament if it wins the election. 

Scoop — Gray day for Ange: Indeed, Playbook hears Rayner’s vow to get the New Deal for Working People introduced into parliament within 100 days of a Labour government has been stifled … by Starmer’s chief of staff, Sue Gray. The civil service veteran believes 100 days is not enough time for a new government to get this kind of complex legislation through Whitehall and into parliament for a first reading.

Unions have their bogeyman (and woman): There was much speculation among paranoid union bosses on Monday night that Reeves and Labour’s campaign coordinator Pat McFadden were behind attempts to water down these reforms — though this was solidly denied by allies of both shadow Cabinet ministers. One pointed out that Reeves committed to the full package of workers’ rights reforms in her Mais lecture as recently as last month, while a McFadden ally said he was simply not involved in the latest round of talks on the policy. But still the rumors will swirl.

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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

FARM TO FORK: Rishi Sunak will today host more than 70 retail businesses and food producers at the “Farm to Fork” food safety summit. The prime minister will announce a new U.K. Food Security Index, while also calling for the country to reduce its reliance on imports of overseas fruit and veg.

WAR ON WOKE: Education Secretary Gillian Keegan will force schools to call transgender ideology a “contested belief” as a part of new proposals set to be introduced this week. The Sun’s Jack Elsom got the scoop.

TENANT TENSION: A Labour-commissioned report has called for rents to be capped in England and Wales to help those struggling with the cost of living, according to the Guardian’s Aletha Adu. This may well cause more headaches for Starmer from his left flank, given he refused to back rent controls in March.

DROPPED: Ministers have abandoned plans to criminalize homelessness amid a backbench rebellion, the Times’ Oliver Wright reports. Home Secretary James Cleverly agreed to drop proposals in the criminal justice bill that would have given police powers to fine or move on rough sleepers.

PRITI PLOTTER: PoliticsHome’s Tom Scotson reckons former Home Secretary Priti Patel might be the quiet front-runner to be the next Conservative leader, with an anonymous Tory MP saying :“One thing we know about Priti is that she is exceptionally popular with the membership, and she’s exceptionally popular with the donors.” Plus, as ConHome Editor Paul Goodman says: “She also has the advantage, in the event of a strong Reform vote, of having good relations with Nigel Farage.” One to watch

We’ve got a podcast for that: If you’re interested in how a leadership plot actually takes place — or indeed if you’re making notes for your own — Aggie Chambre’s latest Westminster Insider podcast looks at exactly that. Well worth your time.

And speaking of Nige: Polling by JL Partners reckons a Farage comeback would boost Reform UK by a dramatic 8 percentage points in the polls — scooping up 4 points each from Labour and the Conservatives. JL Partners Director Scarlett Maguire said on the Sun’s Never Mind the Ballots show that it would be a “knockout blow” for the Tories. Farage has promised a decision in the next few weeks.

ON TENTERHOOKS: The i’s Arj Singh hears Tory councillors and campaigners were put on high alert on Monday, after they were told of a “special election campaign briefing” just moments after Sunak’s speech. The meeting will take place on Thursday, just after a separate briefing by Tory strategist Isaac Levido for Tory MPs on Wednesday afternoon.

NOT ON MY INTERNET: Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan told ITV‘s Lewis Denison that tech companies “can’t litigate” around the law and that the newly inked Online Safety Act is “really comprehensive.” Her comments came after an Australian court sided with Elon Musk over an argument over videos of a Sydney church stabbing that appeared on X. The Aussie government ordered Musk to remove the videos, which he said was “suppressing Australians’ rights to free speech.”

IT’S A SPAT: Former Home Secretary David Blunkett told the Yorkshire Post’s Mason Boycott-Owen that Esther McVey’s comments that she has “no sympathy” for universities facing financial difficulties due to visa changes are “ignorant, ill-informed and dangerous.”

RETURN OF THE MAC: The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) will today release its review into visa routes for international students. It coincides with New Survation/iNHouse polling which shows nearly 45 percent of people believe a reduction in the number of international students would mean local economies in university towns and cities would suffer.

WHO’S YOUR DADDY: Try as they might, the majority of the public does not know what Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer’s fathers do for a living, according to polling from More in Common. The question did not ask about their mothers.

SW1 EVENTS: Shadow Leader of the Commons Lucy Powell gives a keynote speech at the Institute for Government on how a future Labour government would approach parliament at 12.30 p.m. (details here). 

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with justice questions … followed by Conservative MP Selaine Saxby’s 10-minute rule motion on bathing waters (monitoring and reporting) … then a motion to approve the draft Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act 1992 (Amendment of Schedule A2) Order 2024 … followed by a motion to approve the draft Code of Practice on fair and transparent distribution of tips … then it’s a general debate on war graves week. Labour MP Preet Kaur Gill has the adjournment debate on crime in Birmingham, Edgbaston constituency. 

WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 9.30 a.m. on the impact of smartphones and social media on children (led by Conservative MP Miriam Cates) … prevention of sexual violence in conflict (led by Labour MP Sharon Hodgson) … Royal Bank of Scotland branch closures (led by SNP MP Deidre Brock) … and the World Species Congress (led by Labour MP Sarah Champion). 

On Committee corridor: FCDO Minister Tariq Ahmad is grilled by the Foreign Affairs Committee to discuss the MENA region  (9 a.m.) … Premier League Chief Executive Richard Masters and EFL League Chair Rick Parry give evidence for the Football Governance Bill (9.25 a.m.) … football also is the name of the game in the afternoon when six club bosses discuss the bill (2 p.m.) …  ASLEF General Secretary Mick Whelan and RMT General Secretary Mick Lynch are up in front of the Transport Committee to discuss the rail reform bill (3 p.m.) … Employment Minister Jo Churchill is questioned by the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee on the administrative earnings threshold (4 p.m.). 

HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with questions on compensation for people who had pre-payment meters wrongly installed, fly-tipping, and the Great British Insulation scheme … then it’s the committee stage of the Schools (Mental Health Professionals) Bill (led by Lib Dem peer Claire Tyler) … the third reading of the Animal Welfare (Livestock Exports) Bill (led by Conservative peer Robert Douglas Miller) … the consideration of commons amendments to the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill (led by Conservative peer Malcolm Offord) … and the fourth day of the committee stage for the Economic Activities of Public Bodies (Overseas Matters) bill (led by Conservative peer Lucy Neville-Rolfe) … finishing with a statement of changes in immigration rules and associated regret motions (led by Labour peer Ruth Lister and Lib Dem peer Sally Hamwee).

BEYOND THE M25

NO FILMING PLEASE: Labour’s Shadow Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens asked the Welsh Office to establish whether a video filmed by Welsh Secretary David TC Davies in his government office breaches the portion of the ministerial code warning against the use of state offices for “party or constituency activities,” PA reports. In the video, Davies criticized Welsh Labour’s plans to expand the Senedd. 

BANK FRIENDS: French President Emmanuel Macron told Bloomberg that a French bank being taken over by another EU country would encourage deeper financial integration in the bloc. “Dealing as Europeans means you need consolidation as Europeans,” he said. “We have now to open this box and to deliver a single-market approach which is much more efficient.”

TRUMP LAND: Former U.S. President Donald Trump coped with hearing his fixer-turned-nemesis Michael Cohen give evidence against him by sitting in court with eyes shut, nearly reactionless, for hours, my colleague Natalie Allison reports. Cohen spoke of “tasks” that he said he carried out at Trump’s request to protect his interests, recalling details like Trump’s comment that a Playboy model he reportedly had an affair with was “really beautiful,” and a porn star he had sex with was a “beautiful woman.”

CLOSING THE GATE: Melinda French Gates has resigned as co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, saying “the time is right for me to move forward into the next chapter of my philanthropy.”

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MEDIA ROUND

Defense Secretary Grant Shapps broadcast round: GB News (6.45 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.10 a.m.) … Sky News (7.20 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.35 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.).

Acting Shadow DWP Secretary Alison McGovern broadcast round: Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … GB News (8.30 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.) … BBC News (9.15 a.m.). 

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Universities UK Chief Executive Vivienne Stern (7.40 a.m.) … Association of School and College Leaders General Secretary Pepe Di’lasio (8.20 a.m.). 

Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Adviser to Ukraine’s defense ministry Yuriy Sak (7 a.m.) … Friend and former legal adviser to Michael Cohen Lanny Davis (8.15 a.m.) … NFU President Tom Bradshaw (8.30 a.m.) … Headteacher and commentator Katharine Birbalsingh (8.45 a.m.). 

Also on Sky News Breakfast: Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik (7.30 a.m.). 

Also on LBC News: Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown (7.40 a.m.) … ONS’ Liz McKeown (7.50 a.m.). 

Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Conservative MP Kit Malthouse … Labour MP Rebecca Long-Bailey … Bloomberg’s Ailbhe Rea … Former No. 10 adviser Samuel Kasumu.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Labour supporters hate Keir Starmer’s new friends. He doesn’t care one bit.

Daily Express: Game changing ‘new statin’ cuts weight and saves lives. 

Daily Mail: Ozempic slashes heart attack and stroke risk.

Daily Mirror: Find your own way to Wembley. 

Daily Star: The late great Hannibal Lecter’s a wonderful man.

Financial Times: Anglo rebuffs sweetened £34bn bid by BHP as ‘significantly’ undervalued.

i: British nature in crisis.

Metro: King — I lost my sense of taste.

The Daily Telegraph: China fury at arrest of ‘UK spies.’

The Guardian: Labour report calls for rent caps to tackle growing housing crisis. 

The Times: Weight loss jab reduces heart deaths by a fifth. 

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Nerves are on a knife-edge as some fear we have seen the whole of the British summer. Drizzling, highs of 17C, lows of 14C. 

BACK OF THE NET: The Westminster Women’s football team won 4-3 in a match against Deloitte, with two goals scored by SNP MP Hannah Bardell, one by Labour staffer Hannah Short and one by Peston producer Lili Donlon-Mansbridge. 

JOB ADS: The Black Country Living Museum is looking for a director of development and external affairs.

NOW READ: The Guardian round-up of the harrowing stories detailed in the birth trauma report, which raises themes of lack of informed consent, lack of pain relief and medical negligence. 

And and and: Don’t miss Sky’s Sophy Ridge talking about feeling “radicalized” in regards to maternity care after having two children.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.

WRITING PLAYBOOK WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dan Bloom.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg … Former Defence Secretary Michael Fallon … Former SNP Westminster Leader Ian Blackford … South Derbyshire MP Heather Wheeler … Spectator Editor Fraser Nelson … Shadow Trade Minister Ruth Cadbury … Arfon MP Hywel Williams … Crawley MP Henry Smith … Crossbench peer Sarah Hogg … Glasgow East MP David Linden … Former Liz Truss speechwriter and Daily Express assistant editor Asa Bennett … Tory peer Richard Balfe … Flint’s Sam Lowe … Scottish Green MSP Mark Ruskell.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich and Jack Blanchard, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Seb Starcevic.

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