Lack of a coherent China policy is backing US into a corner
- The US is pressing China to end its support for Russia, but these efforts are futile as Beijing believes it would be next if and when Moscow is forced to back down
- It is time for Washington policymakers to be realistic and start bargaining with China on a fairer basis if they want to achieve any of their aims
The US therefore has good reason to see China as a pivotal force behind Russia’s resilience. “We see China sharing machine tools, semiconductors, [and] other dual-use items that have helped Russia rebuild its defence industrial base that sanctions and export controls had done so much to degrade,” Blinken said ahead of his trip to China, adding that “China cannot have it both ways”.
Unfortunately for Washington, any substantive change in China’s position with regard to Russia is out of the question. Beijing believes that if or when Russia is forced to back down, it will be China’s turn next.
As a result, Blinken left Beijing empty-handed while his Chinese hosts attempted to portray their country as the underdog and took a defensive tone. Regardless of any moves the US will make to tighten its array of sanctions against China, continuing down the same path will further back Washington into a corner as the utility of its economic policies diminish.
Alternatively, the US could escalate and embrace “grey zone” tactics, or coercive state actions which are just short of war. That is effectively what Matt Pottinger, who served as a deputy national security adviser during the Trump administration, advocates in a Foreign Affairs article titled “No Substitute for Victory” that he co-authored with Mike Gallagher, a former Republican congressman who had also chaired the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.
Or the US could try to strike a deal with Russia to keep Europe in and China out. This is akin to the deal former secretary of state Henry Kissinger reportedly pushed Donald Trump to pursue, but to no avail. This remains an imaginative scenario, notwithstanding the size of Russia’s appetite since the war in Ukraine began and the intensity of Europe’s fury.
Admittedly, touting these two choices is not meant to be much more than an eye-opener, given that path dependency can be a formidable force of inertia in today’s US politics. Moreover, it doesn’t help that Washington has already expended much energy in roping its global allies into efforts to antagonise both China and Russia. That, it seems, leaves the US with the third option: muddling through with the status quo.
Terry Su is president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in geopolitics