The 2024 Battleground Counties: Brown County, Wisconsin

Much of the attention each presidential election cycle centers on swing states where the outcome can have an outsize impact on who wins the White House. But candidate campaigns and political analysts also zero in on smaller areas where factors like demographics and turnout can play critical roles in the race's ultimate outcome.

Enter battleground counties. Often – but not always – these geographic puzzle pieces are part of a larger swing state. They can offer clues to broader patterns among key groups like Hispanic voters or blue-collar workers, as well as to the strength of a party's turnout infrastructure and where it's chosen to make investments. Sometimes, the key is simply for a party to perform to its historical strength in a given county. If a party underperforms its historical vote share in a key county, it risks losing the state and the larger national race to 270 electoral votes.

With the 2024 presidential election approaching and a rematch of incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump looking likely, U.S. News is spotlighting 15 battleground counties across the U.S., examining their past presidential track records and explaining why they're important this year.

Among the 15 counties on our list is Brown County, Wisconsin.

Why Is Brown County Important?

Brown County – home to Green Bay and its beloved Packers – is a good stand-in for Wisconsin’s many closely divided counties, and for the competitive nature of Wisconsin politics overall. Brown County leans modestly Republican, but it can be competitive for Democratic candidates in the right race and in the right election cycle. Brown County also typifies the state’s growing divisions between how urban and rural areas tend to vote.

Who Lives in Brown County?

Brown County is located in the Fox River Valley of northeastern Wisconsin. At 271,000 residents, it accounts for less than 5% of the state’s population, but it is one of three demographically similar and politically competitive counties that regularly attract attention from politicians. Called the “BOW” counties, the trio includes Brown County, Outagamie County (which includes Appleton) and Winnebago County (which includes Oshkosh). The city of Green Bay has 106,000 residents, or about 39% of Brown County’s population.

Like Wisconsin more broadly, Brown County is predominantly non-Hispanic white – almost 79%, compared with about 59% for the nation as a whole. The largest minority group is Hispanic, at just shy of 10%, or roughly half the national share. The county is working-class – less than 32% of the population has a bachelor’s degree, the median household income is a hair under the national mark and the median home value is about 20% below the nation as a whole.

How Has Brown County Tended to Vote in Presidential Elections?

Only one Democratic presidential candidate has won Brown County this century: Barack Obama in 2008, by about 9 percentage points. But Obama proceeded to lose the county four years later, by less than 2 points. The Republican presidential margin in Brown County has widened somewhat in the Trump era: Trump won by 11 points in 2016 and by about 7 points in 2020.

Among the BOW counties, Trump’s performance in Brown was in the middle in 2020: He won Brown with 53%, compared with 54% in Outagamie and 51% in Winnebago.

In recent down-ballot races, Democratic performance in Brown County has been improving, though usually not enough to win outright. The Democratic gubernatorial nominee won just shy of 41% of the vote in 2014, then improved to almost 45% in 2018 and 47% in 2022. The Democrats’ 2022 Senate candidate, Mandela Barnes, did a little less well, winning just over 45%.

Notably, Brown County’s voting patterns spotlight an urban-rural divide. Brown County has “blue cities but very red countryside,” says Charles Franklin, who directs the closely watched Marquette Law School poll.

Even as he lost Brown County by about 7 points in 2020, Biden won the city of Green Bay by 8 points. Trump prevailed in the county based on strong margins in more rural areas. The city of Green Bay also backed Democrat Tony Evers for governor in 2022 by 13 points, even as Evers lost the county as a whole by more than 4 points.

How Could the 2024 Campaign Play Out in Brown County?

As has been the case in recent elections, Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes will be hotly contested by both presidential candidates. Along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020. In a county like Brown, Biden will seek to win back ancestral Democratic voters who dislike the party’s liberal leanings on social issues, while Trump seeks to build on his extensive inroads with blue-collar voters.

What Other Races on the 2024 Ballot Could Have an Impact?

The biggest down-ballot race in Wisconsin in 2024 is the reelection bid by Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. She faces self-funding Republican Eric Hovde in a race that should be competitive but leans modestly Democratic due to Baldwin’s record of winning tough elections.

What Other Counties in Wisconsin Are Worth Watching?

The Democrats have two strongholds in Wisconsin. One is Milwaukee County, which includes much of the state’s Black population.

The other stronghold is Dane County, which is home to the state capital of Madison and the University of Wisconsin’s flagship campus. Dane County’s voting pattern has become ever more blue this century, rising from 61% for Al Gore in 2000 to 75% for Biden in 2020. It’s also a fast-growing area; the number of Democratic votes cast in Dane for president has increased by about 118,000 between 2000 and 2020, making it the irreplaceable core of Democratic hopes in the state.

Something of a mirror image to the BOW counties are Eau Claire County and La Crosse County in the western part of the state. Eau Claire and La Crosse backed Biden by 54% and 56%, respectively, but they are tied to Wisconsin’s “Driftless” region, named for its geology, which has been trending Republican in recent elections due to its blue-collar and rural demographics.

Two other competitive but slightly Republican leaning counties lie in the Chicago-to-Milwaukee corridor: In 2020, Kenosha County backed Trump with 51% support, as did Racine County.

Finally, the Republicans have historically had a stronghold in three counties near Milwaukee known as the WOW counties: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. The WOW counties remain Republican, but by smaller margins than before, echoing Democratic gains in affluent suburban areas during the Trump era.