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Recently, there have been multiple reports on the divide between Netanyahu and Biden, but they have been conflicting, or at least mixed messages. Here's a report by BBC saying that it is "reasonable to assess" that arms supplied by the US have been used in ways "inconsistent" with Israel's obligations, but in the same report it says that it hasn’t verified specific instances that would justify withholding military aid, and the headline used for each outlet is different depending on what the outlet prefers to highlight. Biden has also withheld military supplies and threatened to withhold more, as reported here, but not enough to actually stop the Rafah invasion from happening.
To me, this is an attempt by him to appease both the pro-Israel and the pro-Palestine camps within the Democratic party, but I think he's failing at both. Pro-Israel folks will see this as a severe stepback from the unconditional support US has historically provided to Israel, while the Pro-Palestine folks will still see him as complicit in the genocide in Gaza as long as the Rafah invasion goes ahead, and the campus protests are unlikely to die out anytime soon. I think the most disastrous outcome for Biden is neither side doesn't feel like they can vote for him anymore in the election, handing Trump a victory. He should commit to one side, either back Israel unconditionally or withhold significantly more arms sales and aid so that America is no longer complicit in what's happening in Gaza, and lock the electoral support of one camp. The latter is not at all a fringe position anyway, with a recent poll showing that a majority of Democrats believe that Israel is committing genocide and disapprove of Congress' recent military aid to Israel.
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I don’t see how this would help him. It’s less about convincing the other camp to vote for you but to maximize turnout among your base. Despite me not fully liking how he handles things, he does it as good as possible for a politician in his dilemma.
Committing to either side is not going to gain him significantly more votes. In case of fully supporting Israel: Convinced Republicans are still going to vote Trump. For moderates and swing voters, other topics are just much more important. So it’s unlikely to make a significant difference; if full support for Israel is your wish, Republicans are more credible on this topic.
Dropping Israel and fully supporting Palestine is unprecedented. He would not only have to do a full arms embargo, but potentially also to give statehood (or a clear unilateral path) to Palestine, to be credible on this issue and capture the far left wing of his party. Without further discussion of what this would mean for world politics (I actually don’t know), this would potentially drive turn out among republicans, for which support of Israel is at the core of the party. It would also drive Jewish population to vote for Republicans or abstain, which is 2.5-3% of the US electorate that has had historically high turnout and votes overwhelmingly dems. Moreover, while for certain capturing his party’s left wing, it would most likely drive swing voters and moderates to the republican side, as Israel is still strongly supported in the US
To add to this I think not fully committing to either side is the correct response. What Hamas did was horrible, and Israel is right to be upset. That said, the response was also horrible, and Palestinians shouldn't be subject to that. And then added on this you have tens or even hundreds of years of history making this conflict even more complex.
Yep, fully supporting Israel may be the most politically expedient choice because A) a quick invasion of Rafah could have had the issue fading from public interest before Election Day and B) People who care about Palestine are super unlikely to be ok with letting Trump back in office unless Palestine is the only thing they care about. I think he’s genuinely trying to do what’s right
Ok, even if you only care about Palestine, there is no reality in which Trump is more pro'Palestine than the current administration.
Everyone who isn't dilusional about how First Past the post works and who cares about Palestine has a moral obligation to vote for the cadidate closest to their views who has a realistic possibility to win. Biden's stance is structured for this reality.
Yes but pro-Palestinians tend to be on the younger side and these are traditionally people already finnicky with voting. If you demoralize them, then they be even less likely to vote! They won't vote for Trump but by them not voting, it's essentially half a vote for Trump.
Israel's response is not responsible for Hamas using the civilians as human shields. People in the west being responsive to this "Israel is bad because Hamas hid their weapons in the children's hospital" dynamic is literally the reason Hamas hides their weapons in children's hospitals.
At some point you still have to decide that killing 35000 civilians is acceptable collateral damage for degrading hamas as a military force.
They have leveled gaza. That was a choice made by the Israeli government
35k civilians isn't exactly accurate. Considering that the Gaza Health Ministry operates under Hamas to begin with. Heck, they even revised their deaths down to about 22k in April. And of their list of 22k, about 1/7th had issues like duplicate ID numbers being used, invalid ID numbers, no names, no ages, etc. So the quality of their accounting is pretty poor. Also not mentioned, is what % of those on the list are legit Hamas members...
Here's an excerpt from the analysis of the report:
"The newly released list contains 21,703 deaths but 440 have duplicate IDs, 470 have no IDs and 792 have the wrong number of digits in their IDs. A further 1,486 have invalid IDs even though they do have the requisite 9 digits.[1] The remaining 18,515 deaths all have listed sexes but 219 are missing ages. In short, roughly 1/7th of the entries in the new data release have quality problems."
If you burst into a room with one bad guy and three civilians, one of which is being used as a shield and you kill the civilians, the bad guy, the bad guys children and then demolish his home and starve his neighbours, it's definitely not the human shield that's the issue.
Human shields only work when your opposition tries avoiding them, not when they've got an AI dedicated to killing them.
Again, this incentivizes Hamas to hide amongst civilian infrastructure. This is Hamas's doing. The number are bullshit, as they come out of Hamas, and the civilian casualties are Hamas's responsibility.
It seems to me that Israel is making the same mistakes in Gaza that the US made in Afghanistan. It doesn’t help to kill one terrorist if the collateral damage necessary to do it creates 5 more terrorists.
What should Israel do instead? Fuck if I know. You can’t have peace when one side or the other is more interested in revenge than peace. And both sides seem more interested in revenge than peace right now.
This idea was never born out. It was always just a talking point. Eliminating an embedded terror state is going to take several generation of occupation, wherein local children are raised in state schools administered by the occupying force to deprogram the genocidal intent of their fathers.
I doubt if any western power has the fortitude to stick through such a plan.
For one thing you can offer an alternative to seeking revenge, the way things are a ghazan just has to look at the west bank to see what making peace looks like.
Except for Afghanistan the US does not have any influential people in it's politics that have spent years dehumanizing afganis so the can annex the land then force them to flee w violence to make a white Christian majority. Honestly Israel is doing more of what Americans did to natives in the east.
ISIS says hi. Bitches were bombed to irrelevance for 10 years. Maybe they'll come back but it sure looks like you can blast terrorism to bits effectively!
Definitely makes it more.likely for them and others to start more wars and hide in children's hospitals. The net effect is absolutely negative
Exactly. The situation is way more complicated than “this side good, that side bad”.
I would expect a competent president to be able to see the nuance and handle it accordingly. I think Biden has missed some things but he’s also not handling it terribly. It is an immensely complicated situation and I’m sure he has access to better I formation than any of us.
I agree.
But it wouldnt for certain lock up the left wing. The far left have low voter turnout and the youth vote is even more abysmal. And both groups constantly move the goalposts when we Biden does what they want. They’ve been saying nothing would ever make them vote for Biden for years, why work to satisfy them when they say they cannot be satisfied?
I’m very progressive but the far left hates democrats far more than republicans and I don’t see anything Biden could actually do that would make them actively vote for him.
Youth vote is so abysmal in 2020 it was the highest it had been in like 50 years. Biden won young voters by 40 points over Trump. It was an astonishing surge of youth support that locked down millions of voters for Biden in critical swing states.
My state, Georgia, was won with young votes. Today he leads Trump by 4% among young voters. That’s a problem and loads of people try to rationalize that drop in support by saying “oh well they don’t vote anyway”.
Uh huh. If Biden loses this election, is he gonna blame it on the Russians or the Chinese this time? And not take responsibility himself.
I think the youth turnout will be much lower when it’s about keeping Biden in office rather than voting Trump out. It was four years of being outraged at everything Trump did. Now they’re more concerned with how Biden is falling short. His approval ratings have been low long before the conflict over Palestine. That he could do anything right now to inspire 2020 turnout levels seems hard to believe.
Biden’s actions go further and demonstrate a deep contempt for young voters. It makes zero political sense that Democrats resurrected a Trump policy (TikTok ban) and thought it was a good idea to pass that during an election year.
There was no reason to push that policy during an election year. You just set a tone of a controlling old parent.
It’s going to be about keeping Trump out of office… again.
You made good points on Republicans might come out in force if Trump can paint Biden as someone who will destroy Israel or something, and it's unlikely that committing to the pro-Israel position will swing many voters to his side. !delta
There are bigger things at play than this election for Biden though. Alienating Israel too much can have a measurable effect on the Jewish vote. Granted Jews are a small population and primarily live in heavily blue states and it won’t affect the presidential election if a lot of them switch.
What is will do is force down ballot candidates to align with Biden, and in congressional elections in NY and NJ, a big shift in the Jewish vote can absolutely have dire consequences for democrats, especially in future elections where the GOP has a less toxic candidate at the top of the ballot.
Look at the last NY Governor election. Hochul won by a relatively slim margin before all this went down (I think it was around 6%). A swing in the Jewish vote against a future candidate that comes out against Israel could actually cause Democrats to lose that election.
A lot of things at play here have nothing to do with votes.
Israel is the top country for AppSec. The US DoD absolutely relies on Israel for a ton of software. Defending our IT assets is paramount in this new war against China and Russia. Israel is at the forefront of our defenses in that regard.
This isn't about appeasing voters. This isn't about appeals to one side. This is a president doing his job to protect this nation.
I'm a Jew. I'll vote blue regardless. I'm definitely not voting for the KKK party and I'm positive none of the Jews I know are switching party because of this.
I have a strong feeling that Trump has no fucking idea how much we depend on Israel for our infrastructure defenses. That is very dangerous is this post Covid world. China is not screwing around. They want Taiwan and they're depending on shutting down US electric grids to help them do it. Take Israel out of the equation and they could possibly accomplish that goal.
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A majority of Jewish Americans now support a permanent ceasefire.
Jewish =/= supports everything Israel does
Most people support a ceasefire. That doesn’t mean anything unless you ask what the conditions for said ceasefire are.
Do you have a link? Did quick Google Fu and only found this which is basically the opposite of what you are saying https://jewishinsider.com/2023/12/poll-overwhelming-majority-of-american-jews-support-israels-fight-against-hamas/
Granted it's from December but that would be a hard shift.
progressive bubble world blinds you here on reddit. most blue voters support israel. it is not a republican stance. its one thing "botth sides" agree on.
The polls definitely don't say that
Continue with this "full support to the hilt" and you lose Michigan and probably other swing states
Any hardcore Israel supporter is voting for Trump either way and there is nothing to gain from continuing this blind support.
It takes two seconds dude. You cannot politically separate supporting Hamas and supporting Palestine on top of the fact that Americans overwhelmingly support the Israeli people. They disapprove of the Israeli government only in roughly half and half. Unilaterally supporting Palestine is political suicide.
https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/majority-in-u-s-say-israel-has-valid-reasons-for-fighting-fewer-say-the-same-about-hamas/#:~:text=Providing%20military%20support%20to%20Israel,are%20not%20sure%20(15%25).
The polls definitely say that. The Democratic base (not the leftists) support Israel with stipulations, which is exactly what Biden has been doing. Flipping from that position alienates the base in favor of the fringe, who hasn’t ever been reliable votes. Michigan isn’t flipping because of this centuries long conflict.
There hasn’t been blind support to Israel, and the Democratic base is more than aware of how disingenuous you are when you frame it that way.
Lol.😂 This is such a sad post.
Confirmed: 1 delta awarded to u/Mcwedlav (2∆).
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Older democrats who voted democrat every single time…. I know some that the antisemitism on university campuses and israel pros inconsistency is…. Not going to have them vote republican, but not vote at all. With health insurance for them— my mom pays thousands a month at 64 (and my dad 62). Property taxes keep increasing. They are incapable of physical labor due to intense medical issues, and rely on rentals as income but thats been getting screwed too. Progressive and social issues— like they are pro-choice, pro-gay rights, etc. but the math aint mathing and biden, whom i think is doing a great job given his cards, just isnt doing enough for them. At all. And while republicans arent going to exactly help with their health care, it would at least help their rentals and property taxes. BUT, they wont vote republican due to the social crap. At this point, voting republican is immoral, and voting democrat is going to worsen their livelihood. And the antisemitism and israel situation— which republicans would have consistent pro-israel/better hold on campuses, makes it even more conflicting.
As far as im aware, people who have voted every election, democrat, might sit this one out.
I don’t know. Folks like your grandparents - lifelong democrats - would have to decide that somehow the campus unrest is Biden’s fault… rather than a social movement with a variety of root causes and participants. I guess I don’t see the rise of antisemitism on college campuses as something’s Dems can be blamed for.
Kids on campuses have never voted because they weren't 18 and the only person to gather those votes was Obama. They won't vote for trump and virtue signal by not voting Biden. These protesters wanted final exams cancelled at their school. These are the lazy kids from COVID lockdowns. They don't go outside and have no electoral impact.
They do have an impact. Old farts seeing the chaos and blame the ‘left’ (democrats)
You’re an asshole and are wrong on all accounts. Just cause your lazy and immoral self doesn’t see anything wrong with genocide doesn’t mean the youth of today don’t. Just as they protested the Vietnam war and were critical to turning the tide of public opinion, they are doing the same thing today. Love how you brought in laziness, COVID and not going outside into the mix because you don’t share their views. Just cause you’re ok with genocide doesn’t mean that others who aren’t are any of the things you listed
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!delta Convinced me that it's probably more or a balancing act and it might actually be the move... Or atleast that is what he is attempting to do.
That said, is it not possible this backfires and ends up alienating both the Jewish population and pro-Jews AND Muslim population and pro-Palestinians?
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Why would swing voters vote gop if he supports Palestine? I guess they’re kind of religiously biased a bit then?
I imagine he’s gonna pitch himself as the moderate pragmatic candidate when the campaign gets in full swing, and that doesn’t really work if he goes super one sided on one of the most visible issues. His goal is to probably pull as many Republican moderates over as possible
I think the problem with this issue in particular is there is no middle ground to exploit. Biden has three options: 1. back Israel unconditionally, 2. display public disapproval but not enough to alter what Israel does in Rafah, 3. withhold significantly more military aid and arms sales. Pro-Israel will interpret 2 and 3 as pro-terrorists, as Trump has done, and Pro-Palestine will interpret 1 and 2 as pro-genocide. By committing to option 2 he is losing both sides.
I don’t know if he is actually losing both sides. I’ve talked to some of the older people in my life (moderate democrat gpa and moderate republican dad), and they seem to think he’s doing an ok job with a bad scenario. And there was that poll not too long ago that said that Palestine wasn’t even a key issue for most people. So if Biden is aiming to pull over moderates from older demographics (aka the ones that vote consistently), he may be doing ok
Biden's out of nowhere arms embargo, a literal stab in the back, is an impeachable offense, given the standard that the Democrats set with Trump.
I'm looking forward to Democrats impeaching Biden in the next few weeks if they're not hypocrites.
The best option is to completely abandon the Palestinians. The only reason why Hamas and other terror organizations like it are able to exist is because they believe that they can win. They're less willing to capitulate or even negotiate when they can see that their agents in the West are actively pressuring their governments to increasingly take their side.
Actions like these are going to cause the conflict to drag on decades longer than it should, resulting in far more bloodshed long term.
I mean, besides the obvious difference in the scenarios and context, sure. The Trump impeachment was for 1) because he illegally withheld funds in violation of the Impoundment Act and 2) was doing so for his personal gain. Neither of those conditions apply here.
What arms embargo?
You mean the “pause” on two small classes of bombs that the IDF wasn’t even going to use for Rafah?
That’s not an arms embargo.
Not really, did Al qaeda think it could win? In general they exist to radicalize the locals, and in that way, they are winning: The arab world is pretty consistently pro Palestine in one degree or another.
No one gave a crap when he betrayed France with the Australian subs, tho, the precedent for this not being a big deal is there
You mean metaphorical stab in the back.
Which Trump impeachment is it comparable to?
I actually it can be quite a key issue. Obviously a lot can change going into November, but there are a few indications already. A lot of Michigan Democrats voted uncommitted in their primaries to protest against his position on Gaza, and in the UK, a significant bloc of left-wing voters voted against Labour because of Gaza. I think if the campus protests go on, it's going to put Biden in a very unfavourable position. A lot of progressives are going to feel even less enthusiastic about Biden than they already were before Oct 7th.
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/07/poll-students-israel-hamas-protests
Only 13% of college students believe Gaza is the biggest issue. 40% healthcare reform, 38% education reform, etc.
Waste of time to make hypotheticals like the other repliers when we have data.
It could be a key issue, but usually for something to be a key issue it needs to be actually contested amongst the candidates; and I don’t think Trump is going pro Palestine.
From every poll I’ve seen this cycle, economy and inflation are the biggest issues, with foreign policy significantly less relevant.
And that's an easy protest vote when you know your vote doesn't matter. These voters aren't voting uncommitted in November.
Biden got a way larger percentage of the 2024 Michigan primaries than he did in 2020 - mostly due to Bernie Sanders not participating. 52.9% in 2020 vs. 81.1% in 2024 voted for Biden.
That’s good, since everyone is saying Biden is struggling with checks notes uuuuuh, older people. Yeah. That’s his problem constituency.
That’s not true there are several middle grounds notably Biden has been plotting a course along several of them. A full endorsement of Israel would be somewhere between providing direct military support and vocal positive statements defending Israel’s prosecution of the war. A total pro Palestine version would be a stop on aid, sanctions, a no fly zone etc. Biden has been pressuring Israel to have fewer civilian casualties, brokering a ceasefire, provided additional humanitarian aid, and publicly critical of the worst outrages (like killing aid workers) while simultaneously asserting Israel’s right to defend itself, protecting it from external attacks, providing a clear threat against regional escalation, and continuing to provide indirect support. He is demonstrating a clear foreign policy where he is trying to move the conflict to a state it’s ripe for a ceasefire while trying to pushback against escalation. Blood speaks with a terrible voice and you can’t just flip a ceasefire switch. You need to slowly bring people to the table and convince them that both sides will be better off if they stop fighting.
I can't believe some people on the far left are going to not vote for him over this after moaning about Trump for the last eight years.
Yeah Israel has probably gone way too far in response to Hamas's attack, but why is this Biden's fault? This might be one of the most important elections in US history. Trump and Project 2025 have the potential to seriously change the US and affect the entire world. Biden can't afford to throw this election away because they picked one side in one of the longest and cruellest conflicts ever.
Every election is the most important election in US history. We hear that every 4 years. Trump will not burn the country to the ground if he's elected. So stop the fearmongering! It doesn't work anymore.
Project 2025 is a joke that will never become reality.
Biden deserves to lose because, for some reason, he makes Trump look like the lesser of 2 evils (At least, in the minds of young people). So, he doesn't have the moral highground anymore. Dude ran on restoring the soul of the country. Now, he's letting a foreign government drag the US into a genocidal military operation.
So, he's about to lose the election - not even for the sake of Americans. If he loves Israel so much, he can go and live there - after getting kicked out of office.
You know what young people feel now? It's not even hatred toward Biden. It's apathy! They are ready to endure 4 more years of that clown called Trump to send a message. And nobody can blame them for that.
Right, so you will protest Biden's weak response to genocide by electing a president who:
-will probably support this genocide
-will make it easier for Russia to commit a genocide in Ukraine
-will damage European security making life more difficult for European citizens
-will let his party make things worse for the US population
-may attempt to take over the US again
i appreciate you don't want innocent people in Palestine to die, neither do I, but this mindset is going to cause innocent people in your own country and others, potentially more than in Palestine to suffer because you didn't get your way.
Also I don't think you can speak for most young people, correct me if I'm wrong but I think most can't be bothered with the hassle caused by the protests (even if they are for a good cause) and are just avoiding the subject.
There is a middle ground. He would support Israel and if they did things against the wishes of US then he withheld some support and pressure Israel to chill out. Pro Palestine should see this preferable over Trump full on support for Israel. And they can’t see the difference it’s on them
while neither side might love him for taking a middle ground, either group could hate him far more if he took a strong stance on either side.
And when you say commit to one side, what exactly does that look like to you? If he chooses Isreal does that mean he sends 100,000 troops to occupy Palestine? that would crush rebellions pretty quickly if the policy is to gun down anyone who steps out of line. Or if he took a strong stance on Palestine, and basically declared it under equal protection of the US government as any other US territory, and any attack on Panlestine will be responded to as if they directly attacked a mainland US state. People that dislike him for not showing enough support for the side they are on would instead view him as a complete monster.