Opinion: What Should the Expectations be for Mississippi State Football in 2024? 

STARKVILLE, Miss.— With spring football in the rearview mirror, the Mississippi State roster is likely locked in for fall practice after the addition of cornerback Montre Miller. The Bulldogs are just over three months away from taking the field under first-year head coach Jeff Lebby. 

The former Oklahoma offensive coordinator is Mississippi State's fourth head coach since 2019. Mississippi State desperately needs some stability in the program, so a successful start to the season would likely have to be led by a productive and exciting offense, something that has recently alluded the Bulldogs. 

Joe Moorhead was hired by MSU in 2018 and, similarly to Lebby, ran an exciting offense at a prominent program. He was the offensive coordinator at Penn State before heading to Starkville. He had to follow one of the most successful coaches in program history, Dan Mullen, who left for Florida. 

There was a lot of buzz then because State was returning three eventual first-round picks on defense (Jeffery Simmons, Montez Sweat, and Jonathan Abram.) The thought was that if Moorhead could have a successful offense with veteran quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and the defense performed to expectations, it could be a special season. 

However, it did not work that way as the Bulldogs struggled on offense all season against Southeastern conference competition and finished with an uninspiring  8-5 record. State scored a combined 19 points in losses to LSU, Florida, and Kentucky. Moorhead was fired after the 2019 season after a 6-7 finish. 

Once again, MSU hired an offensive coach, but this time, it opted to go with long-time head coach Mike Leach. 

The former Washington State and Texas Tech head coach was notorious for his Air Raid offense, and Mississippi State fans hoped the scheme would continue to be successful in the SEC. It faced LSU to open the 2020 season in a rare Week 1 league matchup, and the Bulldogs put on a show. 

They put up 44 points, and quarterback KJ Costello broke the SEC record for most passing yards in a single game with 623. MSU shocked the reigning national champions on their home turf, but the good times did not last. 

The offense subsequently stalled as the Bulldogs dropped their next three games and only scored a combined 30 points en route to a 4-7 finish. Eventually, Leach succeeded and finished his last season 8-4 and got his first Egg Bowl win in 2022.  

However, the legendary head coach passed away suddenly. While college football mourned "The Pirate," MSU would be forced to hire a new head coach while searching for a new athletic director. 

Mississippi State would promote defensive coordinator Zach Arnett to head coach. It was the only decision to be made in such a tough time, but it was a disaster. 

Arnett won the first two games of his career, only to get hammered 41-14 in State's SEC home opener. Things only continued to decline, and the New Mexico native was fired after a 51-10 loss at Texas A&M. 

Fast-forward to the present. Lebby has completely revamped his roster with 20 transfer-portal signees, and the spring showed signs of Mississippi State's exciting and productive offense. Optimism started to sprout once again in Starkville.  

The Bulldogs signed quarterback Blake Shapen, who was impressive in the spring game, throwing for 312 yards. They also added a trio of four-star receivers from the high school ranks and explosive playmaker Kelly Akharaiyi from the portal. 

Everywhere Lebby has been, his offense has been highly productive. Bulldog fans will be happy with the results if he can continue that trend.

So, what is a proper win total this fall? 

While State has gotten a lot of traction with prospects in the transfer portal on offense, it has not yielded similar results on defense. First-year defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler has years of SEC experience as an assistant at Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss, but he is unproven as a play-caller. 

Perhaps that explains the portal shortcomings, but the defense will be a work in progress, maybe for a while. There's talent on that side of the ball, enough to mold a solid unit. However, it's unlikely that 2024 will see a typical MSU defense. 

The Bulldogs also have a demanding road schedule as they travel to Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss. The home slate is more manageable with Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. 

If State can finish the season with six wins, with an exciting offense, and give fans hope going into 2025, it will be a successful season. This program has been in flux since 2018, and Lebby figures to at least bring excitement while building the program back up.