National Weather Service Raw Text Product

904 
FXUS64 KHUN 141632
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1132 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Another active day of weather is forecast across the Tennessee
Valley, primarily this afternoon into the early evening hours,
with high (70-90%) chances for showers/storms ahead of an
approaching shortwave and it's associated cold front. Hi-res
guidance and satellite trends continue to indicate the morning 
cloud cover will begin to dissipate, allowing sun to break through
and heat a conditionally unstable air mass. Per model soundings
the boundary could destabilize with SBCAPE values somewhere in 
the 1000-1500 J/kg range by mid/late afternoon. By 17z showers 
and storms should be quickly developing along and ahead of a cold 
front that will be advancing eastward across western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi -- moving into NW Alabama by 18-19z and 
slowly across the Tennessee Valley between 19z-01z. The wind shear
will be sufficient enough for some organized line segments and 
even a supercell or two capable of all modes of severe weather, 
especially during the 20-00z window. our highest confidence is 
with damaging straight-line winds and large hail (perhaps up to 
1"-1.5" diameter) with the strongest storms, but a low chance for 
a tornado or two will also exist, especially east of the I-65 
corridor. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A brief dry period is expected as we go into the night, as a cold
front south of the parent low moves east of the region. Low
temperatures tonight should cool into the lower 60s. While the 
front heads further to the east, the surface low moving at a 
slower pace over the TN/KY border will return more lower level 
moisture to the region. Daytime heating on Wed will produce 
destabilization and another chance of showers and thunderstorms. 
These storms should be of "general" strength with a usual risk of 
strong gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. 
This activity should end by Wed evening as the parent low finally 
exits further to the east, and even drier air filters in from the
west and northwest. Highs on Wed should range in the mid/upper 
70s, and lows that night around 60.

Thursday looks to be a dry day with clouds decreasing in the late
morning and afternoon. This should help high temperatures warm
into the low/mid 80s. However, another system will be nearing the
area, and bring more chances of showers and thunderstorms starting
Thu night. Lows that night should be milder, in the low/mid 60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Upper level ridging on Thursday quickly gives way to another upper 
level shortwave trough slated to move over the Tennessee Valley on 
Friday and into the weekend. However, there remains a fair bit of 
model disagreement with regards to the evolution and timing of the 
shortwave through the region. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure 
system is shown to develop and progress over central Texas on 
Thursday. By Friday morning, this feature looks to progress into the 
ArkLaTex. At the same time, another low pressure system is shown to 
move over the Midwest and into the upper Ohio Valley on Friday and 
Saturday. The associated cold front from this system looks to sweep 
over the Tennessee Valley on Friday, bringing high chances (70-85%) 
of showers as well as the potential for storms. 

As for any potential for strong to severe storms, confidence is low 
at this time. Models show sufficient instability and shear for 
thunderstorm development, but not much more at this point. Overall, 
some gusty winds are possible along with frequent lightning and heavy
downpours with any storms that do develop. Low chances (20-40%) of 
showers and storms then continue through the weekend, with low 
chances (10-20%) Sunday night through Monday. These lingering 
chances, especially Sunday and Monday, are likely due to the 
aforementioned model disagreement in the upper levels. We will 
continue to monitor trends with future model runs, as details of any 
potential severe weather for late week as well as precipitation 
chances from the weekend into early next week will become clearer 
with better model agreement.

Quite the warm up is possible between Friday and Monday. Highs 
Friday are forecast to be mild, in the mid to upper 70s, due to 
higher chances and coverage of showers and storms. Highs are expected
to be a bit warmer on Saturday, with temperatures reaching the lower
to mid 80s. By Monday, highs in the mid to upper 80s are possible. 
As for low temperatures, values generally remain in the lower to mid 
60s through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

High chances for showers/storms this afternoon and evening may
produce localized MVFR/IFR conditions due to reduced visibilities
and/or ceilings -- along with gusty winds at each airfield between
19-00z. Have included TEMPOs to account for this and AWWs and
amendments may also be needed during this timeframe. Storms will
diminish late this evening and overnight, but low stratus may
settle back in by early Wednesday morning, prompting MVFR
conditions.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP.24