00:00:01
Speaker 1: The Numbers told the story as it's one.
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Speaker 2: Of those idiots who believe in the analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander, Gone Vis.
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Speaker 3: Good at Thursday Morning to It is a numbers game in Visa, the Sports Betting Network, Visa dot Com, Game plus iHeartRadio YouTube TV, all proudly brought you by DraftKings Here Bark Canada at the d downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's haddening man good. I'm doing great. Got that schedule fever. Yeah, man, Actually, just really, I forgot to send you.
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Speaker 4: I thought I sent you a video yesterday, which I'm now really frustrated I did.
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Speaker 3: Kelly spent the ninety seconds prior to the broadcast today telling me about this thing he sent me yesterday.
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Speaker 1: I'm like, I have no idea what you're talking about. Like that is someone else, Yeah, not me.
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Speaker 3: On the show today, we will talk about a smattering of things. Zach Cohen on tennis. He's got a thought on the NBA draft. He's got a thought on.
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Speaker 1: The first overall pick. Yes, he does.
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Speaker 3: I did not expect to see coming this morning. Nick Whalen on the NBA Jonathan Davis will join US hockey. Is he in studio or on table with us?
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Speaker 1: Do we know?
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Speaker 3: I don't think so. Okay, Adam Burke, now that's a get right there. We'll talk about baseball. We'll update the Guardians with him, as I steal the Guardians for one more month. We'll do all that. We will also have Steve Fessick will be on the show tomorrow. But Steve Fessick has made all of his Week one NFL plays. We will share those with you.
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Speaker 1: All of them are stopping after today, at LEAs not stop it.
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Speaker 3: I don't think he was aware that DraftKings put out week after week of NFL lines, so I think he was just locked into Week one. This is a little bit what we were talking about yesterday though, just the the order some of us have all gotten used to right, the schedule of when things are getting posted odds wise, when these releases happen, Yeah, we all kind of have to reset our processes. Well, so here's the deal on schedule release. You know again, I always refer to NFL Draft Day as Christmas for adults. This is kind of like, I don't know what's the holiday equivalent President's Day. Schedule release. It's awesome because from a betting perspective, it gives us the ability to sort of plan bets. Let me explain. Can we throw up the Trip Tepper tweet? By the way, trip Tepper tweeted this yesterday, and I just wanted to start with this because it sort of explains the brief history of a numbers game with these With these kinds of schedule releases, Trip Tepper said, ang has really altered my approach to NFL with total betting, season win total betting. I'd rather bet in season adjusted wind totals or look to the alt wind market. This summer, I look for under ninety percent of the time, not sure the schedule release will trigger even a single win totals bet for me this week. Now, what he means by that is, I, for many years on both the Betting Dork podcast and the Beating the Book podcast and then the early days rather of a numbers game, talked about this stock market like vehicle that I used to bet into, this off the grid stock market like vehicle. I won't give you the name of the financial institution that is no longer with us, but it rhymes with Schmiemanschrothers, and they.
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Speaker 4: Used to do pretty sure you've said it multiple times on air before.
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Speaker 3: And they used to do something over there that was very back you know, back of the office that was not legal, but it was the most heavily participated in betting vehicle you could possibly imagine nationwide on this and it was essentially before adjusted season win totals were offered in season. Remember these are only adjusted season win totals in the NFL. Is only like a three or four year thing. Before that, we had to do it in back rooms and it was Wall Street style anyway. One year I was like the biggest winner. One year I was one of the biggest losers. Like it was very volatile, but it was awesome. We did in football pro in college. And then you'll remember Kelly that the first remember primetime action when we did it. Books didn't really get how to price it when they first started it three four years ago. So you'll remember there was a Broncos win Week one of an NFL seasons, so they had a whole pre flop season win total for months before the season. They then won a Week one game that they were favored in and DraftKings adjusted their season win total by three full games, and I was like, you gotta bet under on this. This is not how this is supposed to work with pricing two years ago.
00:04:15
Speaker 1: It's like three three years ago.
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Speaker 3: I mean, I remember it all bet and we we cashed it easily.
00:04:21
Speaker 1: So this is the deal with these.
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Speaker 3: So it's it's it's fun to talk about, but the reason we talk about it is to then sort of plan where we might bet. So let's just you did a great job with these, Kelly. So before the release came yesterday, we already knew the opponents of each team, and so we already knew, based on season win totals, who had the toughest group of who had the toughest schedules, who had the easiest schedules before we knew the sequencing, Let's do the easiest first. The Atlanta Falcons. We already knew Kelly to have the easiest schedule in all the football. A lot of that has to do with the division in which they play, the NFC South. But now we know, based on yesterday's release, how it's sort of breaks down, and how it breaks down is that they have a really sort of tough first three games and then it opens up. So let me be specific about those those three games. So if you're thinking about Falcons bets, the point of this and we'll get to this, it'll become more apparent when we go to other teams. But the Falcons start out home Pittsburgh, Okay, but then it's at Philly home Kansas City. So if you're thinking about going over on the Falcons, like, if that's your inclination, you may want to hang out till after Week three, right after the Eagles and Chiefs games. So these are the kinds of things. That's just a brief example of this is the kind of things that we're trying to look at. You don't have to bet preflop. You can wait and bet adjusted season win totals at what the schedule dictates, and you know how that goes. Sometimes the schedule works out as it's supposed to, other times it doesn't. But if you are if you have an inclination on one of these teams over under, know where the dip is.
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Speaker 4: It's kind of like live betting, just in a game, right, Like you can circle spot of where you think you're gonna be you hope to get in doesn't always play out that way, right, So you gotta be.
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Speaker 1: Okay, we're that easy exactly right.
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Speaker 4: So it's it's always the It's just like you know, preseason win total bets you make for a reason because you're usually a little bit more confident in these. I think you want to say, you could look for spots, you know, and whether it's division, odds, confer you know, it could.
00:06:20
Speaker 1: Be any kinds of futures that you're betting.
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Speaker 4: What I think maybe we'll do next week is we'll maybe we'll go through each one of these teams a little bit more deeply like.
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Speaker 3: This, Well, I want to go through the other easiest ones and hardest ones. So the other easiest ones the Chargers, Okay, that's true. It is by in terms of their aggregate group of opponents. In terms of season win totals. Remember, don't do it on last year's win percentage, do it on season win totals.
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Speaker 1: The Chargers have the second easiest.
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Speaker 3: But if you really break down the Chargers schedule, it doesn't really get that super easy until the final four games. That's when they play the Bucks and the Broncos at home, at the Patriots, at the Raiders. So they finish with a really easy flourish. So know that even though people are going to say they have an easy schedule, it really doesn't get super easy until then. It's not difficult difficult until then, but that's when the easy flourish begins. So keep that in mind if you're like, oh, I want to bet the Chargers over what's the ideal time Bears? Boy did Caleb Williams find himself in a great situation, not only as a number one pick in the draft with great built in teammates. But the Bears have an easy schedule. Keep in mind they do have a three in a row late November and early December. That is the most difficult part of that schedule. And what I'm referring to there is they've got an at Lions, at Niners, at Vikings, three road games in a row part to their schedule, followed by a home game against the Lion, So it gets it gets difficult later. In other words, something to just note in your schedule analysis. Oh, the Bears are easy, but it does get hard later. Jets also one of the easiest schedules in all of football. With Aaron Rodgers now coming back from the Achilles injury, but know that it ends brutally.
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Speaker 1: It's really easy.
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Speaker 3: Up at the top at the beginning, but at the end they close with at Miami at Jacksonville home, Rams at Buffalo home Miami. Oh my gosh, has got in season in season underwings for me. You see the exercise we're performing here. So that's the thing. Like, note that the ideal time perhaps to go under on the Jets injuries aside, because that could throw off all of these right, God forbid Aaron Rodgers goes down again or something like that.
00:08:43
Speaker 1: Especially week five.
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Speaker 4: They're doing the week five and they're not taking a bye week, going right back to play week six.
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Speaker 1: That's right.
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Speaker 3: I'm in gil London week five and they've elected to continue to play the following week. The other the other fifth easiest schedule belongs to the New Orleans Saints. Again, a lot of that has to do with the vision in which they play, but note that Theirs starts hard week two after a week one game. Week two on, it's at Dallas home Philly, at Atlanta at Kansas City, and then move forward a few weeks and it's at the Chargers. So there is despite the fact that they're going to be broadcast as a very easy schedule. There is that stretch between weeks two and five specifically where it's difficult, so you can plan, like, let's say you have an inclination to bet the Saints over maybe you wait till after that stretch up through week five and then you bet it. We'll go through the hardest. And by the way, can I just do the one hardest? Because I think this is of all the things that happened yesterday with the schedule release, the single biggest headline to me is the Pittsburgh Steelers schedule. I think they are the big losers of schedule release day. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who we already knew who would have the toughest schedule in twenty twenty four. Did you see how their schedule broke down. There's seventeen games in an NFL season, remember that, of course, this this is the janky uneven seventeen games now, so it is damn near.
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Speaker 1: Half their schedule.
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Speaker 3: But the last eight games of the Pittsburgh Steelers' schedule again almost half of their schedule. Here their last eight games, Kelly, this is incredible. Home Baltimore at Cleveland at Cincinnati home Cleveland at Philly at Baltimore home KC home Bengals. You have got to be kidding me. That is the worst eight game gauntlet I have ever witnessed in my life. We talked about how the Chiefs had a bad seven game gauntlet, but they're the Kansas City Chiefs, right, and we said, well, they can go four and three.
00:10:36
Speaker 1: They might take it. That kind of thing.
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Speaker 3: If you're the Steelers or Steelers fan or one of these people who again, I don't know if you know this, Kelly, Mike Tomlin has the streak going. If Mike Tomlin is gonna keep the not having a losing season streak alive, they are gonna have to bank a bevy of wins before they get to those final eight games, because otherwise it ain't happening. Not to mention that they start at Atlanta, at Denver in the elevation, and home Chargers, so it's not as if it's easy peasy to begin the season either, but those eight in a row, they're the biggest losers of schedule release day.
00:11:12
Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like that before.
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Speaker 4: Pretty sure it was less than forty eight hours ago. I said basically these exact words with you of I'm not messing around with the Mike Tomlin Magic Beans this year.
00:11:21
Speaker 1: That's right after schedule release day.
00:11:25
Speaker 4: If you think the Jets, I've got circled for an in season under Yes, Steelers.
00:11:30
Speaker 1: Brutal, Brutal.
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Speaker 3: We'll go through the other four of the toughest schedules. We'll also talk about who starts the easiest, who starts the hardest. We'll get to a whole bunch more NFL stuff and Steve Fesicks Week one plays that he's already made some basketball and tennis and I thought I'm the number one overall pick from Zach Cohen.
00:11:49
Speaker 1: Next Numbers gave Network.
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00:12:23
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00:12:38
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00:12:49
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00:12:51
Speaker 4: Get all the incredible, incredible stuff that Zachary Cohen writes about every single day up on the website.
00:12:56
Speaker 3: Wow, that's vsin dot com slash subscribe, you would make a spectacular used car pitch man.
00:13:03
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, you know the only you know, the only job I'm leaving this place for, right, major Diata restaurant.
00:13:09
Speaker 4: I know it's as soon as my man Phil Steele steps aside over at uh Flexia or coming for his job.
00:13:14
Speaker 1: He just doesn't know it. Hisna is Phil Steele. No, that's Phil Steel's a college football guy. What do you do?
00:13:20
Speaker 3: Phil Steele? Flee flex Seal. He'd be great at it. By the way, I just want to point this out, Kelly. I just want to brag a little bit about this. Matt brag, Phil Swift, Phil Swift, thank you. No relation to DeAndre or Taylor. As far as we know. The the number of Elizabeths and Alyssa's and Lisa's who have liked my tweets over the last twenty four hours, Oh my god, it's all genuine humans, all of them. There's got to have been one hundred and fifty Elizabeths and four hundred and seventy five Amy's in the last twenty four hours.
00:13:55
Speaker 1: Wait to know, Elon Musk, nice job, so many Elizabeths.
00:13:59
Speaker 4: Also, I'm also crushed now that I just had to I just googled Phil Swift's name, and apparently Jerry Seinfeld's coming for that job too.
00:14:06
Speaker 1: Apparently, Oh your toast.
00:14:08
Speaker 4: Sorry, this is the hell my hopes and dreams just came crashing down.
00:14:11
Speaker 3: By the way, if you think Kelly is like joking about how deflated he is right now, he's not joking. This is awful wow, because he'll get it over you. Yeah, I am cheaper. I promise you are cheaper. Zach co enjoins us everybody. He is a Vsent senior writer. You could follow him at one of the great Twitter handles. There is betting on X and he comes to us now Vicent senior editor and writer, I should point out betting on X. He comes to us courtesy the progressive guest line, Zach, how you doing man? Well?
00:14:40
Speaker 1: How about you guys doing very well? Man?
00:14:41
Speaker 3: I hope your clay season has been better than mine. Mine has been kind of meh giving back some units. How about yours?
00:14:48
Speaker 2: Yeah?
00:14:48
Speaker 5: Overall clay season has been really good, but I've had a tougher room that I did Madrid and Monte Carlo.
00:14:54
Speaker 1: I have one play today.
00:14:55
Speaker 3: I am on Dan Yelle freaking Collins plus one thirty three. You can get her better, A few cents better than that right now? Going up against Arena Spalaca a little later on you, sir, do you have any tennis today?
00:15:07
Speaker 5: I was on the wrong side of that Hube match, which was just, you know, an out of body experience watching hubee in. You know, a breakfest like that. You go, you went up a break in that third set and just couldn't get his first serves in.
00:15:17
Speaker 2: So that was a tough loss. I am on a parlay a little bit later.
00:15:21
Speaker 5: With Steff of those CITs APAs money line with Collins plus four and a half. I wanted a little bit of action on both matches, but you know, I wasn't willing to lay the games with Citzepasa or take the two and a half of Collins. I needed a little bit more than that. But if I like something in that match, I do think the Collins is the right call. I just think the way she played against d Azarenka, moving her all around the court and just really bullying her just right from the center of the court.
00:15:43
Speaker 2: It was really impressive.
00:15:44
Speaker 5: I think these slower conditions will also, you know, play into her favor a little bit more than the Legita Madrid.
00:15:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, and she is ornery. You ever watch a Danielle Collins match. By the way, Kelln hoeisty.
00:15:54
Speaker 1: If you're against her, you hate her, right, She's just so much. But your on her.
00:15:58
Speaker 3: Oh my god, you love you love. We're retiring. She's retiring. She says she's retiring. It's her greatest year ever. That's a lot of folks.
00:16:05
Speaker 1: She's work.
00:16:06
Speaker 5: She's work shopping a new fist pump where she like pulls it back in.
00:16:12
Speaker 2: She's just the most intense player. You'll see it.
00:16:14
Speaker 1: Stop works shopping.
00:16:16
Speaker 3: We'll see how it goes for if to say that brings her back into the game. Dominicque team is retiring Camila Georgie just retired, whole bunch of players, all right, zag Eddie French Open plays before we move on.
00:16:29
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's a really tough tournament to handicap, which is funny because we're doing it for French Open Guide this year and she'll be out on either Monday or Tuesday, so it picked a good year for that with everybody injured. But I do think ega on the women's side, that's where I'm going to go with it, and I think on the men's side, maybe just kind of sprinkle the board with you know, Casper Rude Stefano sits apass. I could even be talked to it to Daniel Medvedev at twenty to one, and you know, just because of what we're seeing on the men's side with injuries, I guess I do think that if we hear some positive stuff out of the Aparez camp, like maybe I'll take a bite at plus two hundred. But it's a little bit hard knowing that he might not be able to rip that forehand.
00:17:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I still think Djokovic is the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear, Like I.
00:17:11
Speaker 1: Just think he is laying low.
00:17:13
Speaker 3: And yes, he was hit with a stray water bottle on his head and then he had that just a completely uneven performance against Toaby Low. But that's not enough for me to just take him off the board for me.
00:17:26
Speaker 1: We'll see, we'll see.
00:17:28
Speaker 5: I think I think we'm nervous about with Djokovic. Is now he fired even Yovic or I parted ways, whatever it was, and now the whole percentage is down at eighty three percent. Even Yisovic has been credited with getting that whole percentage up with reworking that serve. And I wonder if it's something where you know that serve motion was hurting his elbow or something like that that we just don't really know. I just think that that might not be a coincidence that the serve hasn't been as good since he changed coaches.
00:17:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, could be, could very well be. All right, So here's the deal.
00:17:54
Speaker 3: And again a men's side that has injuries with center with Alkaaz we don't know if a doll's playing. So it's ever been this up in the this much up in the air, as you know, as it has been for years now NBA. Last night Celtics get the gentlemen sweep against the Calves. Amazing that that ended up like right on the number after the Calves looked like they might even be able to pull off an upset at one point. And then of course we have the you know series that I just cannot wrap my arms around. The Mavericks take the five or takes We take the three to two lead in the best of seven series against the thunder as they take home court back now headed to Game six in Dallas. They win at one O four to ninety two yesterday as four and a half point dogs. We have the Nuggets and the t Wolves Game six back in Minnesota tonight, where the t Wolves are two and a half point favorites, and then we got Game six back in Indiana tomorrow night where the Pacers are trying to force a Game seven. They're five and a half point favorites against the Knicks. Any thoughts on Denver in Minnesota tonight or the Knicks and the Pacers tomorrow, Let alone. Game six, I should say between the MAVs and the Thunder, well, I.
00:18:59
Speaker 5: Will just say I was MAVs MAVs before the series, thought they were gonna win the series when they took one of those games on the road, and then I kind of changed my mind after I saw what we saw in Game four. But now I really regret it because I just don't think that Oklahoma City is capable of scoring on this Dallas team. So I do think the havevercks, so we'll get it done in Game six now. But I have been flip flopping on that series. Can't get a read on it either. But I do think tonight it's it's really tempting to take the Nuggets a plus money, almost too tempting. I think the way I'm going to go at it is I'm going to.
00:19:26
Speaker 2: Take the team total over one oh one and a half.
00:19:28
Speaker 5: That way, I'm protected in case, you know, the Timberwolves offense does show up in this game. But I do think it's not a fluke that Denver has figured out the Minnesota defense. They really have no answer for Joker, whether it's his you know, scoring or facilitating. So I do think that at the very least even if Denver does lose tonight, they'll put up at least one hundred and two points.
00:19:46
Speaker 3: You have a you have conviction on any of those three, Kelly, any of them.
00:19:50
Speaker 4: I did bet the MAVs for the closeout game after last night. I think that's you know, as you brought up, Zach, I think for the Mavericks side of things. So it's just what's been most impressive so far really has been the defense.
00:20:03
Speaker 1: I don't know about everybody else.
00:20:05
Speaker 4: Sure felt like I was watching a very different Luka Doncic last night. If he'd been riding on the good stuff through four games, he got the better stuff for game five, good stuff. Yeah, he was looking a little bit more like Luka Doncic.
00:20:18
Speaker 1: Yeah all right, Zach.
00:20:20
Speaker 3: I didn't think we would be talking about this today, But you have a thought on the number one pick in the NBA draft June twenty ninth.
00:20:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish it was a really strong thought.
00:20:30
Speaker 5: I do think that Alex Saar being the favorite to go number one is probably right. He's right about minus two twenty right now. But I do think that Donovan Klingon at fourteen to one is something that should be considered, and it kind of depends on how much, say you think the Queenn Snyder has within the Hawks organization. But you know, I know that we're seeing a lot of slander for Rudy Gobert, But I do think that Klingon can come in and make a Rudy Gobert like impact relatively quickly. I think he's probably one of the best interior defenders in this draft. I just think right away he could come in and kind of anchor a Hawk's defense that has been miserable with Trey Young and point guard. And if they do keep Trey Jung around, I think they really need to strongly consider bringing Clingon in. I think that this is obviously, you know, a time where we're not seeing traditional centers going number one anymore. You have to have kind of that inside out ability on offense. But I do think they're in a draft that is viewed as really weak. Getting a guy with all defensive potential at number one might be something that they could consider. Especially Yeah, for a coach that coached the Jazz coach the team that had Donovan Mitchell and Ruby Gobert to a lot of success in a tough Western conference. So I just think it's something that's going to be considered. And I also think Clingon, you know, it's the NBA, COMBA, take it for what it's worth. He has shown the ability to kind of step out and make some threes.
00:21:42
Speaker 3: All right, there's a thought, Donovan Clingland, Donovan Klingon, pardon me, fourteen to one the third shortest shot, if you will, behind the two Frenchman Alexander Sar and Zachary Resa Che.
00:21:53
Speaker 1: Who are both close to well, I should say Sorr.
00:21:56
Speaker 3: Is the favorite now minus two ten. He's taking some money. Resa Shay is at plus two ten, clinging fourteen to one. I misspoke. I said June twenty nine. It's actually June twenty seventh. How dare for the NBA draft?
00:22:06
Speaker 4: A part for me for people that are, you know, probably unaware that Zach does one of the guys who does a lot of the international scouting work throughout the offseason during the season.
00:22:16
Speaker 3: So a man who knows a thing or two about this, who's the best international player of the bunch?
00:22:20
Speaker 1: Zach?
00:22:20
Speaker 2: In your opinion, I think Topitch is going to be really good.
00:22:24
Speaker 5: I there's some concerns about his jumper, but I think I think he's unbelievable.
00:22:27
Speaker 3: Nicola Topich, He's gonna be get ready, Yovic Jovic, Jokich Topitch, let's go. We have a Nicola Jokic and Nicola Jovic and now we will have a Nicola topic. That'll be fun.
00:22:38
Speaker 1: Zach, thank you, appreciated. Good luck today, ma'am. Thanks guys, we'll come back. We'll update the PGA.
00:22:44
Speaker 3: Where Xander is doing his thing, because of course it's the first round.
00:22:48
Speaker 1: What do you love?
00:22:51
Speaker 2: The numbers told the story they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
00:22:56
Speaker 1: This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone our.
00:23:00
Speaker 3: Number two of a numbers game at Visa, the Sports betting Network, Visa dot Com, Game plus, iHeart Radio YouTube TV. However, you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gill Alexander, It's Kelly Bidlin, It's a numbers game. Bark Canada at the d Still to come this hour, we are going to talk to Jonathan Davis on the NHL playoffs.
00:23:16
Speaker 1: Looking forward to that.
00:23:18
Speaker 3: We'll get Steve Fesick's Week one plays in the National Football League and Nick Whalen standing by as well.
00:23:24
Speaker 1: Adam Burke as well, later on. What are you nodding about? Nothing? Nothing? Okay, scurious, that's my nod of. I'm talking to the crew right now, Gilly, Oh, please continue. I'm sorry.
00:23:35
Speaker 3: I just bet Scotti Scheffler by the way, you did, Yeah cool, I bet Scotty Scheffler because you act.
00:23:41
Speaker 1: Did you get a little longer number? A little bit? Not too much? And I expect that's what I would expect.
00:23:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, because right now again at the PGA, Xander Shoffley five under through nine, he's got the one stroke advantage five under through nine, one one shot lead over Tony th Now it's your boy, right.
00:24:01
Speaker 4: Got top tens on both those guys. Let's go all right, Phoenix don't even really my boy, but he was that guy of like, I'm like, all the numbers say he should be good this week, but his pudder as it is. For for how much we've talked about Tony Fenou's putting before, it's.
00:24:15
Speaker 1: Like real bad right now, like real bad. For those wondering where the crack man is? You know where the crackman is? Kelly any idea? I don't know. Arizona, New Jersey.
00:24:26
Speaker 3: He's got to be left the state to go make bets on the NFL schedule release because they're taking more money out of state, good on than they are here in Nevada.
00:24:35
Speaker 1: Good for you, crack man. He'll be next week. What's he bet? Maybe wants to bet them first.
00:24:41
Speaker 3: Let us know we have the physics coming up, ladies, gentlemen. Comes to us courtesy the Progressive Guest Line. He's at rod O Wire. He's Nick Whalen. You can follow him on Twitter at Whalen. Substitute the number one for the letter L. How you doing, Nick?
00:24:55
Speaker 1: Doing well?
00:24:55
Speaker 2: Guys?
00:24:56
Speaker 6: Just another great weekend in the sports calendar. We got some huge NBA this weekend. Obviously, we got the PGA ongoing. I do identify it, by the way, with Tony Fenow as a horrendous, horrendous putter. You can say the same thing about me every weekend as you can Tony Fow. So I just want to get some support to Tony.
00:25:13
Speaker 3: That was very modern day of you too, that you identify as a port you kind.
00:25:18
Speaker 4: Of golfers are annoying, Like I'm the guy that's like, no, if it takes me less than five shots to get to the green, that's where I'm happy about.
00:25:25
Speaker 1: Oh, you're excited but putting.
00:25:26
Speaker 3: I don't care about how many times have you seen a pro golfer just be so upset with the shot of theirs and you're like, if I could have done that, I would be so happy.
00:25:33
Speaker 6: Yeah, I would love to be five under at any point in my life.
00:25:37
Speaker 3: That's right before we get to your NBA thoughts. This is fun with the NFL schedule is that the notion of survivor comes up as well? You have actually given this some thought for Week one?
00:25:49
Speaker 6: I have, man, I mean, first of all, I'm a sucker for the schedule release. I know some people complain about the NBA or exeuse me, the NFL just you know, monopolizing the sports calendar. It's like, you know, we're in the midst of the NBA playoffs and all everybody's talking about is the schedule release.
00:26:02
Speaker 1: I love it.
00:26:03
Speaker 6: I mean, we already know the teams, everybody's playing, like there really shouldn't be any surprises here, and yet it is kind of like Christmas morning finding out when your team is going to be heading where, and yeah, you got to, you know, start to get some action in right.
00:26:15
Speaker 2: All the lines can pop up right away.
00:26:17
Speaker 6: Over at the DK Sportsbook, and yeah, whether you're in circum million as I will be again this coming season, or if you're playing Circus Survivor, how's the time to start grinding that research, you know, I do a confidence pool pick the league, you know, where you rank every game one through sixteen each week. I'm already going through, you know, checking things out, doing some initial research. I think we have a few decent options if you're playing Circus survivor looking at week one, I think the most popular play, guys, is going to be Cincinnati at home against New England. That number is up to eight and a half now at DraftKings. That's on the rise even in the last twelve hours. I think that is by far going to be the most popular play. If you want to zag a little bit, you know, I think Seattle at home against what remains of the Denver Broncos could be an interesting play. I think there's a lot of positive momentum. Mike McDonald, I have no idea what Denver's going to be doing at quarterback. I think that's a team that will likely need a few weeks or even a couple of months to kind of hit its stride. I also like the Niners at home against the Jets. I know this Jets team will be a lot better with Aaron Rodgers, but you're still kind of starting fresh with Rogers. He's coming off the Achilles. He really didn't get any reps with this team last season. I think that is a brutal, brutal spot for the Jets staff to go on the road to San Francisco in Week one, and then the other one would be Tampa Bay. I'm still kind of making up my mind. Do I think Tampa Bay could carry over what it did last season? But I think they have a pretty soft landing in Week one against the Commander's team that will be starting a rookie quarterback.
00:27:37
Speaker 1: How dare you first of all on that one? How dare you?
00:27:42
Speaker 3: I have not given it enough of a look yet. My instinct though, is I don't want to burn the Bengals week one. I do not want to.
00:27:49
Speaker 1: Yeah to that.
00:27:49
Speaker 4: Well, you know what my first instinct quotes was that was, oh, I found a teaser.
00:27:54
Speaker 1: Leg already.
00:27:57
Speaker 4: Your obvious Week one teaser, guys, so y up, Packers up against the Eagles and.
00:28:02
Speaker 1: Bengals down there. It is sure those numbers will still just a Teaser of the Week.
00:28:06
Speaker 3: The other issue with Circus Survivor is we have two Wednesday Christmas Day games. Wednesday, let me repeat that Wednesday. So you got the Chiefs at the Steelers and you got the Ravens at the Texans. There's also a game the next day, Thursday, December twenty six, which is on Amazon. Kelly, get ready, that's the Seahawks at the Bears. Now, one would assume, and you know what they say about assuming it makes you regret what you thought initially.
00:28:36
Speaker 1: I believe it's the statement.
00:28:38
Speaker 3: One would assume that they will include all three of those games in the Christmas quarter They better, right, because if they don't, if they just state the better because they because if they only keep it to the two Christmas games, Can I make an outlanda statement? You're ready for an Atlanta statement? Buddy Tommy always goes, Can I make an outlanda statement? Goo warns you in advance. I'm gonna do that right now. If it's only the two Christmas games, I might consider not playing.
00:29:08
Speaker 1: Survivor at all. How about that?
00:29:09
Speaker 2: Wow?
00:29:11
Speaker 3: Because I think you do get to it. I think you do get to a point where you don't want to be involved. Forget the money. You don't want to be involved in something emotionally for that long. And know that there's this two game nonsense gamble, complete non gamble, and remember God knows something could happen and get postponed for whatever reason, right, and then you're down to one. You can't have that. So literally, it's to the point where if you if you have it, it's fewer than three games. I wonder how many people will be like, I'm gonna do it, I said, consider, by the way, I consider not playing all Right, NBA, Nick, Let's get to it. First of all, any observation on the uh, the Mavericks and the Thunder last night. I said earlier, this is a series I just cannot wrap my arms around at all.
00:30:06
Speaker 1: Like it.
00:30:06
Speaker 3: It's on paper it's the second best of the semi final series, but it's like the one we're from a handicapping standpoint, I have no idea what I've been watching. And so the Mavericks win it, and they win it handily. Last night They're headed back to Dallas to try to close out the Thunder in six that is not until Saturday.
00:30:25
Speaker 1: The MAVs are favored by four. Let's start there, What is your thought on this series?
00:30:30
Speaker 6: So I have been a Dallas better guys throughout this this playoff run, and I had mAbs and six in this series. Now we have a chance to to of course cash that on Saturday. But I'm with you, man, I've had a really tough grasp or a tough time getting a grasp on this series, specifically from a player prop perspective. I really thought this would be a series where Kyrie Irving would be able to feast, there'd be all this attention paid to Luka Danciic, and instead, you know, Okacs has adopted this strategy of throwing hard double teams at Kyrie Irving, especially over the last three games in the series, and for the most part, you know, Kyrie has just kind of sat back and made the right basketball plays, right. I mean, he's got what nine eleven and twelve points I believe over the last three games. He's just not really attacking those double teams with as much aggression as you'd expect from a guy like him who's comfortable, you know, making and taking tough shots. And you know, it's led to Dallas relying more on their role players, which in Rounte one did not go well. They could not identify a consistent third option whatsoever.
00:31:27
Speaker 2: But the combination of PJ.
00:31:29
Speaker 6: Washington, Derek Jones Junior, you know, Tim Hardaway has has re emerged, you know, as a guy who they can depend on now.
00:31:34
Speaker 2: Off the bench.
00:31:36
Speaker 6: It's a dicey strategy I think over the course of a series to essentially kind of be okay with Kyrie Irving just taking a big step back as a scorer. And part of the reason this series was two two going into last Night, Guys was because Luka doncich had not played like Luca. But when you get a thirty one, eleven and ten game with five threes from Luka Doncicch, like we finally saw last night, that makes that strategy a lot more difficult to execute if you're Okace. So I wonder if we see a pivot on SAT, did they throw a different defensive strategy out there? Is this an opportunity to Unlockkyrie Irving? But I would love to take Kyrie over twenty and a half points. I mean, his his points prop Guys is down like a full five points from where it was at the.
00:32:12
Speaker 2: Start of the series.
00:32:13
Speaker 6: But at the same time, there's just been so much game to game variance that I feel like I need to back away.
00:32:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, Nick, I was the guy last night who did it.
00:32:20
Speaker 4: I shot for Kyrie twenty five plus because like you're saying, like it's dropped so much, it's so tempting, but it might get unlocked after what Luca did last night. I watched him when he's hitting the step back threes. That's what was front Rimmen for about two weeks, and now that those are going in Watch.
00:32:37
Speaker 3: Out was the opposite of Steph Curry beautiful three as the Luca I'm just gonna shot.
00:32:43
Speaker 1: Put this up there.
00:32:44
Speaker 3: Oh look it went in tonight Nuggets tea Wolves game six back in Minnesota, Minnesota, trying to stave off elimination. They're favored by two and a half. Two oh five is the total? What do you got to here?
00:32:56
Speaker 2: Guys?
00:32:56
Speaker 6: I'm back on Denver, and you know, I myself, like everybody else, is kind of flip flopped two or three times in this series, right. I mean, when Denver goes down oh two, you know, we start to write their obituary and start to coordinate the Minnesota Timberwolves and start to look ahead and say, man, maybe they could beat the Boston Celtics, and now you fast forward a week and we're right back to where we were at the start of this series, where everyone's back on the Denver Nuggets. I think Denver has a very good chance to close this series out tonight, even on the road. I have no idea if Mike Conley is going to be out there. I think even if he does push through to play, he's probably not going to be anywhere close to one hundred percent. I mean, a veteran like Mike Conley, who at this point is kind of running out of opportunities to make a run to the NBA Finals, that guy's got to be very injured to miss a game in this spot. So I don't know that we see Conley out there tonight, and we saw how big that is for the Minnesota offense, just not really having any other options outside of Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony Town.
00:33:46
Speaker 2: So I'm on the Nuggets.
00:33:47
Speaker 6: In terms of props, I'm going with Anthony Edwards over twenty nine and a half points. You can get that a plus one hundred, and I know Denver's doend a good job on him defensively over these last couple of games. But even if you think Minnesota is losing tonight, it's hard to imagine and not going down swinging. I don't think he's going to settle for like an eighteen point night in a do or die back against the Wall game six. I don't know if we can depend on Karl Anthony Towns to provide decent secondary options for the Timberwolves. So I think this is an anti Edward spot even if you think Minnesota goes down. And I also like TCP over one and a half threes plus one thirty.
00:34:20
Speaker 1: There you go very thorough by the way. Well, yes, no question the PACER's going to force a game seven tomorrow.
00:34:23
Speaker 2: I think they do.
00:34:26
Speaker 6: I think they force a game seven and they lose in game seven, and then they lose in game seven.
00:34:29
Speaker 1: Nick, great talking to you. Thank you for the Survivor thoughts week one.
00:34:33
Speaker 6: Hey anytime, guys, thanks for having me at Whalen.
00:34:35
Speaker 3: That's a number one instead of the letter L for Nick Jonathan Davis on the NHL Next.
00:34:48
Speaker 1: Numbers game on Sports Vetting Network.
00:34:51
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00:35:20
Speaker 1: Here's the key, though.
00:35:22
Speaker 3: Visit Visa dot Com slash Subscribe today to claim your fourteen months of vson Pro for only one hundred and ninety nine dollars, But.
00:35:28
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00:35:32
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00:35:38
Speaker 1: Ang. Use that promo code ang AANG. I believe it's outs pronounced.
00:35:43
Speaker 3: That's vsin dot Com slash subscribe, by the way, it's Skill Alexander, It's Kelly Bidlin.
00:35:48
Speaker 1: Kelly, you want to talk some hockey, Let's do it. Let's do not hockey who says that in that promo? By the way, what's that from? No idea? You know, no po You're talking about.
00:35:59
Speaker 3: What I ended up having here in the NHL is and I don't know that we expected this to happen, but we have three out of the four conference semis going to a sixth game, and we have a fourth that is headed to a fifth game, notted up at to a piece. And to help us navigate through what has been a fascinating NHL playoffs is Jonathan Davis.
00:36:17
Speaker 1: Everybody.
00:36:17
Speaker 3: We're always thrilled that Jonathan spent some time with us courtesy the Progressive Guest Line. He's the host of ice Cap on Sirius XM NHL and host of Show Me the Money Hockey betting podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at West Coast HKY. How you doing, Jonathan, Great to see you, man.
00:36:35
Speaker 2: I'm doing great. It is. Yeah, it's just a great night ahead in the Stanley Cup playoffs, we have, Yeah, we've got another elimination game, and we've had three teams that have had chances to eliminate their opponent and they're all there are combined. Oh and what four now? Yeah, in these elimination games.
00:36:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hockey, man, and it's just a none of these have ended, and so we have, as you talked about, we have one more chance at this tonight. One of the two is a protests elimination game, and it begins with the Rangers and the Hurricanes, where the Rangers still are up three games to two now in the series, but Carolina is a minus one sixty favorite in game six, and I we're showing minus one sixty six. And now correct me if I'm wrong here, Jonathan. This is one of those where even when the Rangers were up three, they were up three to zero, right, and then three to one.
00:37:24
Speaker 1: Now it's three two. I mean, this has happened.
00:37:26
Speaker 3: Unlike basketball, where it's never happened that the team has come back from a three to nothing deficit, it has happened a few times in the NHL.
00:37:32
Speaker 1: It felt like most people.
00:37:34
Speaker 3: Felt like like the Hurricanes, even down three to nothing, had a legit shot at this no question.
00:37:40
Speaker 2: I mean, Okay, so you always hear, you know, the fourth game is always the toughest to win, and it's proving out so far in three of the four series. This is a series that you know, really did have a feel early on that it should have been going long. It should have been going six games. I mean, Carolina deserve the better fate. They had outplayed the Rangers in a couple of the early games and just kept falling one goal short. It's interesting, you know, I was texting back and forth with Jeff Benson after, you know, before game five, and you know, I was looking at the numbers, and you know, you had eighty six percent bets and ninety three percent money on the on the on the Rangers in game number five. Yet that line didn't move, and I think it may have been somewhat to do with the liability that that books already had on Carolina. We're seeing it again today. I mean, the Rangers are only are getting thirty four percent bets, but just seventeen percent of the money, and that line where the Hurricanes are, and the line keeps jumping up a little towards Carolina. I'm not going to play aside in this one, you know, guys, I'm looking at at a prop and because for me, the Carolina Hurricanes have changed the way they've played the last couple of games. They're they're a team that's really all about shot volume and not necessarily shot quality, and now they're going more for shot quality. So Egorsh just Stirk in under thirty and a half saves is the way I'm approaching this game tonight.
00:38:59
Speaker 1: Just under thirty and a half saves the Rangers goaltender.
00:39:02
Speaker 3: So rather than laying the minus one sixty six, you're gonna play it with that derivative prop right there, play the under saves on Shasterkin. Okay, as the Hurricanes look to force a game seven back in New York in that series, then we have the one series that's still knotted up at two games apiece, and this is out West, and this is to determine what will be the de facto Canadian representative if you will in the final four here two to two, and you have a play on an Edmonton oiler here specifically on Leon dry Sidle.
00:39:31
Speaker 1: What are you doing?
00:39:33
Speaker 2: Well, Look, this has been one that I've been on since Game one of the playoffs. Leon DREI title over a point and a half, and I started out in game one of the LA series when it was plus one ninety five and here we are eight games later and it's now down to plus one oh six, and it actually closed at minus one point fifteen going into Game number four. But yeah, he's had two or more points in eight of the nine games. For me, you know, he has been the most valuable player in the playoffs to date. I just can't shy away from this prop. And I'm getting plus money. So for me, this this is, you know, this is the is the safest bet from a value standpoint. The Vancouver connucts have tremendous value at that at plus money. So I can understand if someone wants to play Vancouver. I mean, look, they've got two of the next three games on their home ice. I'm just not I'm just more comfortable with what's been the safest and the best play for I think throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs is leon over one and a half points.
00:40:33
Speaker 3: But if somebody came to you and say they want to take an adjusted price on the on the Canucks, you would be okay with that to win the series, I understand, sure.
00:40:40
Speaker 2: I mean, look, they've played well enough that they could they could be up three to one, I mean there's no question. But yeah, I'm just so the value is with Vancouver. But for me, again, yet, like I say, how can you go away from a guy who just continues to dominate on the ice.
00:40:55
Speaker 3: All right, So the two props today from Jonathan Davis Igorsha Stirk in under thirty and a half saves for the Rangers tonight, and then Leon drysidele of the Oilers over one and a half points in the Oilers Canucks Game five back in Vancouver. We won't be able to talk to you before tomorrow's two. Game six is but I wanted to get your thoughts. Bruins staved off elimination. They are back on their home ice for Game six, trying to not up their series against the Florida Panthers at three apiece. Florida is still a favorite in that game about minus one fifty. And then the Stars in the Avalanche, the Avalanche staving off elimination last night where they're five to three win over the Star Stars, still up three to two in that series. But we're back in Colorado where the Latch are a slight favorite in Game six tomorrow.
00:41:37
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on either of those two, Well.
00:41:39
Speaker 2: It's some interesting numbers with both those. So the Colorado Avalanche are six to zero in a series when they trail three games to one in Game number six or game number five. They've won six straight games, but they're two and fourteen. In game number six when they trail three three games to two, so interesting, I'm there. Look, Dallas is the better team, but that was a gutsy win by the Colorado Avalanche last night. Yeah, they look like a team, you know, especially after what happened to them. You know in game number four that I just didn't think they were going to have it in them. But you know, look, Dallas's goaltender, Jake Ottinger came up short. Just not one of his better games. He has to be better, you know. For me, the over is the play in this one. I'm just I love the value. I just think that, you know, these two teams traditionally. I think it's now ten of their last thirteen games regular season in playoffs have gone over. So I'll play the over right now. That's what I'm looking at. And in Boston and Florida, Yeah, look, Boston's gonna get a boost from getting their captain Brad mar Shant back. It looks like he will return after missing the last two games. The Bruins are just like a lunch paale hockey team. They don't have the talent that Florida has, but they just keep gutting out victories.
00:42:55
Speaker 1: Still.
00:42:55
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, for me, Florida is the much deeper team. They had a bit of a hiccup in in game number five. I think they win Game number six, and I think and for me, I would play Florida on the punk line.
00:43:06
Speaker 3: All right, So let me ask the basic question, who's in the finals? Who's in the Stanley Cup Finals in your opinion, and who wins it.
00:43:13
Speaker 2: I think it's Dallas and Florida in the Stanley Cup Final, And oh god, I'll go with Florida right now, because I think they've got the best goaltender between the two in Bobrovsky.
00:43:25
Speaker 1: We're talking about okaysk.
00:43:27
Speaker 2: In Bbroski we trust more than right now, we trust Jake Ottinger.
00:43:31
Speaker 1: All right.
00:43:31
Speaker 3: And then here's my question for next year. Obviously we don't know the numbers, we don't have all of the betting markets up at all. But give me a team that either they stuck into the postseason, maybe they didn't even make the playoffs at all, that you think your hunches will be undervalued in betting markets heading into next season.
00:43:52
Speaker 2: Oh God, a team that's going to be undervalued in betting markets next season.
00:43:59
Speaker 1: In other words, they got the worst of it this year. Thanks.
00:44:01
Speaker 2: No, no, no, I'm trying to think, you know what, I'm gonna go with the Salt Lake whatevers. I think that I would play their their point total over next season.
00:44:12
Speaker 1: The Utah Yetties. That's what That's what it's gonna be, Jonathan, that's right, Utah Yeddies. Yeah.
00:44:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, Matt Brown and I kicked around the list last week of what I remember.
00:44:21
Speaker 2: I remember, yes, I remember. We talked about don't we want to have the Utah blizzard so they could face the Carolina hurricane.
00:44:27
Speaker 1: That's that's what Jonathan wanted. Yeah, you want storms gliding. Utah yeties is hot. Yeah, that's good. I like it hot.
00:44:35
Speaker 3: All right, Jonathan, We appreciate it. Thank you so much. Great talking to you.
00:44:38
Speaker 2: Always a pleasure. Guys, have a great rest of your day.
00:44:40
Speaker 3: You too, Jonathan Davis everybody. Once again, you can follow him on Twitter at West Coast HKY that's West Coast Hockey, host of the host of ice cap on series XMNHL, host of Show Me the Money, the OCCY betting podcast called Show me the money. Check it out fan vote for the new name of the Utah team Utah. Yes, I like that, and it is gonna be It's gonna be Utah. It won't be Salt Lake City, which that was the first question I had from Matt, because you know, the name kind of goes to you know, goes with the together, right, because the yetti has been discovered in Utah.
00:45:15
Speaker 4: But like Salt Lake City yeties doesn't flow that Utah yet Utah Yeties would still be better than the oxymoron that is the Utah Jazz.
00:45:26
Speaker 1: Jumbo Shrimp.
00:45:27
Speaker 4: There were a lot of names we had a question where like what does this have to do with Utah?
00:45:30
Speaker 1: And then we google and we're like a.
00:45:32
Speaker 3: Guest host Utah Jazz. Of course they hold over from New Orleans, which did make sense or NFL schedule mix
Speaker 1: The Numbers told the story as it's one.
00:00:03
Speaker 2: Of those idiots who believe in the analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander, Gone Vis.
00:00:09
Speaker 3: Good at Thursday Morning to It is a numbers game in Visa, the Sports Betting Network, Visa dot Com, Game plus iHeartRadio YouTube TV, all proudly brought you by DraftKings Here Bark Canada at the d downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
00:00:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's haddening man good. I'm doing great. Got that schedule fever. Yeah, man, Actually, just really, I forgot to send you.
00:00:29
Speaker 4: I thought I sent you a video yesterday, which I'm now really frustrated I did.
00:00:33
Speaker 3: Kelly spent the ninety seconds prior to the broadcast today telling me about this thing he sent me yesterday.
00:00:38
Speaker 1: I'm like, I have no idea what you're talking about. Like that is someone else, Yeah, not me.
00:00:44
Speaker 3: On the show today, we will talk about a smattering of things. Zach Cohen on tennis. He's got a thought on the NBA draft. He's got a thought on.
00:00:51
Speaker 1: The first overall pick. Yes, he does.
00:00:54
Speaker 3: I did not expect to see coming this morning. Nick Whalen on the NBA Jonathan Davis will join US hockey. Is he in studio or on table with us?
00:01:03
Speaker 1: Do we know?
00:01:04
Speaker 3: I don't think so. Okay, Adam Burke, now that's a get right there. We'll talk about baseball. We'll update the Guardians with him, as I steal the Guardians for one more month. We'll do all that. We will also have Steve Fessick will be on the show tomorrow. But Steve Fessick has made all of his Week one NFL plays. We will share those with you.
00:01:22
Speaker 1: All of them are stopping after today, at LEAs not stop it.
00:01:26
Speaker 3: I don't think he was aware that DraftKings put out week after week of NFL lines, so I think he was just locked into Week one. This is a little bit what we were talking about yesterday though, just the the order some of us have all gotten used to right, the schedule of when things are getting posted odds wise, when these releases happen, Yeah, we all kind of have to reset our processes. Well, so here's the deal on schedule release. You know again, I always refer to NFL Draft Day as Christmas for adults. This is kind of like, I don't know what's the holiday equivalent President's Day. Schedule release. It's awesome because from a betting perspective, it gives us the ability to sort of plan bets. Let me explain. Can we throw up the Trip Tepper tweet? By the way, trip Tepper tweeted this yesterday, and I just wanted to start with this because it sort of explains the brief history of a numbers game with these With these kinds of schedule releases, Trip Tepper said, ang has really altered my approach to NFL with total betting, season win total betting. I'd rather bet in season adjusted wind totals or look to the alt wind market. This summer, I look for under ninety percent of the time, not sure the schedule release will trigger even a single win totals bet for me this week. Now, what he means by that is, I, for many years on both the Betting Dork podcast and the Beating the Book podcast and then the early days rather of a numbers game, talked about this stock market like vehicle that I used to bet into, this off the grid stock market like vehicle. I won't give you the name of the financial institution that is no longer with us, but it rhymes with Schmiemanschrothers, and they.
00:03:04
Speaker 4: Used to do pretty sure you've said it multiple times on air before.
00:03:08
Speaker 3: And they used to do something over there that was very back you know, back of the office that was not legal, but it was the most heavily participated in betting vehicle you could possibly imagine nationwide on this and it was essentially before adjusted season win totals were offered in season. Remember these are only adjusted season win totals in the NFL. Is only like a three or four year thing. Before that, we had to do it in back rooms and it was Wall Street style anyway. One year I was like the biggest winner. One year I was one of the biggest losers. Like it was very volatile, but it was awesome. We did in football pro in college. And then you'll remember Kelly that the first remember primetime action when we did it. Books didn't really get how to price it when they first started it three four years ago. So you'll remember there was a Broncos win Week one of an NFL seasons, so they had a whole pre flop season win total for months before the season. They then won a Week one game that they were favored in and DraftKings adjusted their season win total by three full games, and I was like, you gotta bet under on this. This is not how this is supposed to work with pricing two years ago.
00:04:15
Speaker 1: It's like three three years ago.
00:04:16
Speaker 3: I mean, I remember it all bet and we we cashed it easily.
00:04:21
Speaker 1: So this is the deal with these.
00:04:22
Speaker 3: So it's it's it's fun to talk about, but the reason we talk about it is to then sort of plan where we might bet. So let's just you did a great job with these, Kelly. So before the release came yesterday, we already knew the opponents of each team, and so we already knew, based on season win totals, who had the toughest group of who had the toughest schedules, who had the easiest schedules before we knew the sequencing, Let's do the easiest first. The Atlanta Falcons. We already knew Kelly to have the easiest schedule in all the football. A lot of that has to do with the division in which they play, the NFC South. But now we know, based on yesterday's release, how it's sort of breaks down, and how it breaks down is that they have a really sort of tough first three games and then it opens up. So let me be specific about those those three games. So if you're thinking about Falcons bets, the point of this and we'll get to this, it'll become more apparent when we go to other teams. But the Falcons start out home Pittsburgh, Okay, but then it's at Philly home Kansas City. So if you're thinking about going over on the Falcons, like, if that's your inclination, you may want to hang out till after Week three, right after the Eagles and Chiefs games. So these are the kinds of things. That's just a brief example of this is the kind of things that we're trying to look at. You don't have to bet preflop. You can wait and bet adjusted season win totals at what the schedule dictates, and you know how that goes. Sometimes the schedule works out as it's supposed to, other times it doesn't. But if you are if you have an inclination on one of these teams over under, know where the dip is.
00:05:56
Speaker 4: It's kind of like live betting, just in a game, right, Like you can circle spot of where you think you're gonna be you hope to get in doesn't always play out that way, right, So you gotta be.
00:06:05
Speaker 1: Okay, we're that easy exactly right.
00:06:08
Speaker 4: So it's it's always the It's just like you know, preseason win total bets you make for a reason because you're usually a little bit more confident in these. I think you want to say, you could look for spots, you know, and whether it's division, odds, confer you know, it could.
00:06:20
Speaker 1: Be any kinds of futures that you're betting.
00:06:22
Speaker 4: What I think maybe we'll do next week is we'll maybe we'll go through each one of these teams a little bit more deeply like.
00:06:27
Speaker 3: This, Well, I want to go through the other easiest ones and hardest ones. So the other easiest ones the Chargers, Okay, that's true. It is by in terms of their aggregate group of opponents. In terms of season win totals. Remember, don't do it on last year's win percentage, do it on season win totals.
00:06:48
Speaker 1: The Chargers have the second easiest.
00:06:49
Speaker 3: But if you really break down the Chargers schedule, it doesn't really get that super easy until the final four games. That's when they play the Bucks and the Broncos at home, at the Patriots, at the Raiders. So they finish with a really easy flourish. So know that even though people are going to say they have an easy schedule, it really doesn't get super easy until then. It's not difficult difficult until then, but that's when the easy flourish begins. So keep that in mind if you're like, oh, I want to bet the Chargers over what's the ideal time Bears? Boy did Caleb Williams find himself in a great situation, not only as a number one pick in the draft with great built in teammates. But the Bears have an easy schedule. Keep in mind they do have a three in a row late November and early December. That is the most difficult part of that schedule. And what I'm referring to there is they've got an at Lions, at Niners, at Vikings, three road games in a row part to their schedule, followed by a home game against the Lion, So it gets it gets difficult later. In other words, something to just note in your schedule analysis. Oh, the Bears are easy, but it does get hard later. Jets also one of the easiest schedules in all of football. With Aaron Rodgers now coming back from the Achilles injury, but know that it ends brutally.
00:08:13
Speaker 1: It's really easy.
00:08:14
Speaker 3: Up at the top at the beginning, but at the end they close with at Miami at Jacksonville home, Rams at Buffalo home Miami. Oh my gosh, has got in season in season underwings for me. You see the exercise we're performing here. So that's the thing. Like, note that the ideal time perhaps to go under on the Jets injuries aside, because that could throw off all of these right, God forbid Aaron Rodgers goes down again or something like that.
00:08:43
Speaker 1: Especially week five.
00:08:44
Speaker 4: They're doing the week five and they're not taking a bye week, going right back to play week six.
00:08:48
Speaker 1: That's right.
00:08:49
Speaker 3: I'm in gil London week five and they've elected to continue to play the following week. The other the other fifth easiest schedule belongs to the New Orleans Saints. Again, a lot of that has to do with the vision in which they play, but note that Theirs starts hard week two after a week one game. Week two on, it's at Dallas home Philly, at Atlanta at Kansas City, and then move forward a few weeks and it's at the Chargers. So there is despite the fact that they're going to be broadcast as a very easy schedule. There is that stretch between weeks two and five specifically where it's difficult, so you can plan, like, let's say you have an inclination to bet the Saints over maybe you wait till after that stretch up through week five and then you bet it. We'll go through the hardest. And by the way, can I just do the one hardest? Because I think this is of all the things that happened yesterday with the schedule release, the single biggest headline to me is the Pittsburgh Steelers schedule. I think they are the big losers of schedule release day. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who we already knew who would have the toughest schedule in twenty twenty four. Did you see how their schedule broke down. There's seventeen games in an NFL season, remember that, of course, this this is the janky uneven seventeen games now, so it is damn near.
00:10:04
Speaker 1: Half their schedule.
00:10:05
Speaker 3: But the last eight games of the Pittsburgh Steelers' schedule again almost half of their schedule. Here their last eight games, Kelly, this is incredible. Home Baltimore at Cleveland at Cincinnati home Cleveland at Philly at Baltimore home KC home Bengals. You have got to be kidding me. That is the worst eight game gauntlet I have ever witnessed in my life. We talked about how the Chiefs had a bad seven game gauntlet, but they're the Kansas City Chiefs, right, and we said, well, they can go four and three.
00:10:36
Speaker 1: They might take it. That kind of thing.
00:10:38
Speaker 3: If you're the Steelers or Steelers fan or one of these people who again, I don't know if you know this, Kelly, Mike Tomlin has the streak going. If Mike Tomlin is gonna keep the not having a losing season streak alive, they are gonna have to bank a bevy of wins before they get to those final eight games, because otherwise it ain't happening. Not to mention that they start at Atlanta, at Denver in the elevation, and home Chargers, so it's not as if it's easy peasy to begin the season either, but those eight in a row, they're the biggest losers of schedule release day.
00:11:12
Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like that before.
00:11:13
Speaker 4: Pretty sure it was less than forty eight hours ago. I said basically these exact words with you of I'm not messing around with the Mike Tomlin Magic Beans this year.
00:11:21
Speaker 1: That's right after schedule release day.
00:11:25
Speaker 4: If you think the Jets, I've got circled for an in season under Yes, Steelers.
00:11:30
Speaker 1: Brutal, Brutal.
00:11:32
Speaker 3: We'll go through the other four of the toughest schedules. We'll also talk about who starts the easiest, who starts the hardest. We'll get to a whole bunch more NFL stuff and Steve Fesicks Week one plays that he's already made some basketball and tennis and I thought I'm the number one overall pick from Zach Cohen.
00:11:49
Speaker 1: Next Numbers gave Network.
00:12:01
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00:12:23
Speaker 1: Which Vison expert has the hot hand.
00:12:25
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00:12:38
Speaker 4: ANG Promo code ang as an aid numbers game. We are slashing prices here, folks, Spring savings time over at vson.
00:12:49
Speaker 1: Got to use that promo code ang.
00:12:51
Speaker 4: Get all the incredible, incredible stuff that Zachary Cohen writes about every single day up on the website.
00:12:56
Speaker 3: Wow, that's vsin dot com slash subscribe, you would make a spectacular used car pitch man.
00:13:03
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, you know the only you know, the only job I'm leaving this place for, right, major Diata restaurant.
00:13:09
Speaker 4: I know it's as soon as my man Phil Steele steps aside over at uh Flexia or coming for his job.
00:13:14
Speaker 1: He just doesn't know it. Hisna is Phil Steele. No, that's Phil Steel's a college football guy. What do you do?
00:13:20
Speaker 3: Phil Steele? Flee flex Seal. He'd be great at it. By the way, I just want to point this out, Kelly. I just want to brag a little bit about this. Matt brag, Phil Swift, Phil Swift, thank you. No relation to DeAndre or Taylor. As far as we know. The the number of Elizabeths and Alyssa's and Lisa's who have liked my tweets over the last twenty four hours, Oh my god, it's all genuine humans, all of them. There's got to have been one hundred and fifty Elizabeths and four hundred and seventy five Amy's in the last twenty four hours.
00:13:55
Speaker 1: Wait to know, Elon Musk, nice job, so many Elizabeths.
00:13:59
Speaker 4: Also, I'm also crushed now that I just had to I just googled Phil Swift's name, and apparently Jerry Seinfeld's coming for that job too.
00:14:06
Speaker 1: Apparently, Oh your toast.
00:14:08
Speaker 4: Sorry, this is the hell my hopes and dreams just came crashing down.
00:14:11
Speaker 3: By the way, if you think Kelly is like joking about how deflated he is right now, he's not joking. This is awful wow, because he'll get it over you. Yeah, I am cheaper. I promise you are cheaper. Zach co enjoins us everybody. He is a Vsent senior writer. You could follow him at one of the great Twitter handles. There is betting on X and he comes to us now Vicent senior editor and writer, I should point out betting on X. He comes to us courtesy the progressive guest line, Zach, how you doing man? Well?
00:14:40
Speaker 1: How about you guys doing very well? Man?
00:14:41
Speaker 3: I hope your clay season has been better than mine. Mine has been kind of meh giving back some units. How about yours?
00:14:48
Speaker 2: Yeah?
00:14:48
Speaker 5: Overall clay season has been really good, but I've had a tougher room that I did Madrid and Monte Carlo.
00:14:54
Speaker 1: I have one play today.
00:14:55
Speaker 3: I am on Dan Yelle freaking Collins plus one thirty three. You can get her better, A few cents better than that right now? Going up against Arena Spalaca a little later on you, sir, do you have any tennis today?
00:15:07
Speaker 5: I was on the wrong side of that Hube match, which was just, you know, an out of body experience watching hubee in. You know, a breakfest like that. You go, you went up a break in that third set and just couldn't get his first serves in.
00:15:17
Speaker 2: So that was a tough loss. I am on a parlay a little bit later.
00:15:21
Speaker 5: With Steff of those CITs APAs money line with Collins plus four and a half. I wanted a little bit of action on both matches, but you know, I wasn't willing to lay the games with Citzepasa or take the two and a half of Collins. I needed a little bit more than that. But if I like something in that match, I do think the Collins is the right call. I just think the way she played against d Azarenka, moving her all around the court and just really bullying her just right from the center of the court.
00:15:43
Speaker 2: It was really impressive.
00:15:44
Speaker 5: I think these slower conditions will also, you know, play into her favor a little bit more than the Legita Madrid.
00:15:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, and she is ornery. You ever watch a Danielle Collins match. By the way, Kelln hoeisty.
00:15:54
Speaker 1: If you're against her, you hate her, right, She's just so much. But your on her.
00:15:58
Speaker 3: Oh my god, you love you love. We're retiring. She's retiring. She says she's retiring. It's her greatest year ever. That's a lot of folks.
00:16:05
Speaker 1: She's work.
00:16:06
Speaker 5: She's work shopping a new fist pump where she like pulls it back in.
00:16:12
Speaker 2: She's just the most intense player. You'll see it.
00:16:14
Speaker 1: Stop works shopping.
00:16:16
Speaker 3: We'll see how it goes for if to say that brings her back into the game. Dominicque team is retiring Camila Georgie just retired, whole bunch of players, all right, zag Eddie French Open plays before we move on.
00:16:29
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's a really tough tournament to handicap, which is funny because we're doing it for French Open Guide this year and she'll be out on either Monday or Tuesday, so it picked a good year for that with everybody injured. But I do think ega on the women's side, that's where I'm going to go with it, and I think on the men's side, maybe just kind of sprinkle the board with you know, Casper Rude Stefano sits apass. I could even be talked to it to Daniel Medvedev at twenty to one, and you know, just because of what we're seeing on the men's side with injuries, I guess I do think that if we hear some positive stuff out of the Aparez camp, like maybe I'll take a bite at plus two hundred. But it's a little bit hard knowing that he might not be able to rip that forehand.
00:17:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I still think Djokovic is the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear, Like I.
00:17:11
Speaker 1: Just think he is laying low.
00:17:13
Speaker 3: And yes, he was hit with a stray water bottle on his head and then he had that just a completely uneven performance against Toaby Low. But that's not enough for me to just take him off the board for me.
00:17:26
Speaker 1: We'll see, we'll see.
00:17:28
Speaker 5: I think I think we'm nervous about with Djokovic. Is now he fired even Yovic or I parted ways, whatever it was, and now the whole percentage is down at eighty three percent. Even Yisovic has been credited with getting that whole percentage up with reworking that serve. And I wonder if it's something where you know that serve motion was hurting his elbow or something like that that we just don't really know. I just think that that might not be a coincidence that the serve hasn't been as good since he changed coaches.
00:17:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, could be, could very well be. All right, So here's the deal.
00:17:54
Speaker 3: And again a men's side that has injuries with center with Alkaaz we don't know if a doll's playing. So it's ever been this up in the this much up in the air, as you know, as it has been for years now NBA. Last night Celtics get the gentlemen sweep against the Calves. Amazing that that ended up like right on the number after the Calves looked like they might even be able to pull off an upset at one point. And then of course we have the you know series that I just cannot wrap my arms around. The Mavericks take the five or takes We take the three to two lead in the best of seven series against the thunder as they take home court back now headed to Game six in Dallas. They win at one O four to ninety two yesterday as four and a half point dogs. We have the Nuggets and the t Wolves Game six back in Minnesota tonight, where the t Wolves are two and a half point favorites, and then we got Game six back in Indiana tomorrow night where the Pacers are trying to force a Game seven. They're five and a half point favorites against the Knicks. Any thoughts on Denver in Minnesota tonight or the Knicks and the Pacers tomorrow, Let alone. Game six, I should say between the MAVs and the Thunder, well, I.
00:18:59
Speaker 5: Will just say I was MAVs MAVs before the series, thought they were gonna win the series when they took one of those games on the road, and then I kind of changed my mind after I saw what we saw in Game four. But now I really regret it because I just don't think that Oklahoma City is capable of scoring on this Dallas team. So I do think the havevercks, so we'll get it done in Game six now. But I have been flip flopping on that series. Can't get a read on it either. But I do think tonight it's it's really tempting to take the Nuggets a plus money, almost too tempting. I think the way I'm going to go at it is I'm going to.
00:19:26
Speaker 2: Take the team total over one oh one and a half.
00:19:28
Speaker 5: That way, I'm protected in case, you know, the Timberwolves offense does show up in this game. But I do think it's not a fluke that Denver has figured out the Minnesota defense. They really have no answer for Joker, whether it's his you know, scoring or facilitating. So I do think that at the very least even if Denver does lose tonight, they'll put up at least one hundred and two points.
00:19:46
Speaker 3: You have a you have conviction on any of those three, Kelly, any of them.
00:19:50
Speaker 4: I did bet the MAVs for the closeout game after last night. I think that's you know, as you brought up, Zach, I think for the Mavericks side of things. So it's just what's been most impressive so far really has been the defense.
00:20:03
Speaker 1: I don't know about everybody else.
00:20:05
Speaker 4: Sure felt like I was watching a very different Luka Doncic last night. If he'd been riding on the good stuff through four games, he got the better stuff for game five, good stuff. Yeah, he was looking a little bit more like Luka Doncic.
00:20:18
Speaker 1: Yeah all right, Zach.
00:20:20
Speaker 3: I didn't think we would be talking about this today, But you have a thought on the number one pick in the NBA draft June twenty ninth.
00:20:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish it was a really strong thought.
00:20:30
Speaker 5: I do think that Alex Saar being the favorite to go number one is probably right. He's right about minus two twenty right now. But I do think that Donovan Klingon at fourteen to one is something that should be considered, and it kind of depends on how much, say you think the Queenn Snyder has within the Hawks organization. But you know, I know that we're seeing a lot of slander for Rudy Gobert, But I do think that Klingon can come in and make a Rudy Gobert like impact relatively quickly. I think he's probably one of the best interior defenders in this draft. I just think right away he could come in and kind of anchor a Hawk's defense that has been miserable with Trey Young and point guard. And if they do keep Trey Jung around, I think they really need to strongly consider bringing Clingon in. I think that this is obviously, you know, a time where we're not seeing traditional centers going number one anymore. You have to have kind of that inside out ability on offense. But I do think they're in a draft that is viewed as really weak. Getting a guy with all defensive potential at number one might be something that they could consider. Especially Yeah, for a coach that coached the Jazz coach the team that had Donovan Mitchell and Ruby Gobert to a lot of success in a tough Western conference. So I just think it's something that's going to be considered. And I also think Clingon, you know, it's the NBA, COMBA, take it for what it's worth. He has shown the ability to kind of step out and make some threes.
00:21:42
Speaker 3: All right, there's a thought, Donovan Clingland, Donovan Klingon, pardon me, fourteen to one the third shortest shot, if you will, behind the two Frenchman Alexander Sar and Zachary Resa Che.
00:21:53
Speaker 1: Who are both close to well, I should say Sorr.
00:21:56
Speaker 3: Is the favorite now minus two ten. He's taking some money. Resa Shay is at plus two ten, clinging fourteen to one. I misspoke. I said June twenty nine. It's actually June twenty seventh. How dare for the NBA draft?
00:22:06
Speaker 4: A part for me for people that are, you know, probably unaware that Zach does one of the guys who does a lot of the international scouting work throughout the offseason during the season.
00:22:16
Speaker 3: So a man who knows a thing or two about this, who's the best international player of the bunch?
00:22:20
Speaker 1: Zach?
00:22:20
Speaker 2: In your opinion, I think Topitch is going to be really good.
00:22:24
Speaker 5: I there's some concerns about his jumper, but I think I think he's unbelievable.
00:22:27
Speaker 3: Nicola Topich, He's gonna be get ready, Yovic Jovic, Jokich Topitch, let's go. We have a Nicola Jokic and Nicola Jovic and now we will have a Nicola topic. That'll be fun.
00:22:38
Speaker 1: Zach, thank you, appreciated. Good luck today, ma'am. Thanks guys, we'll come back. We'll update the PGA.
00:22:44
Speaker 3: Where Xander is doing his thing, because of course it's the first round.
00:22:48
Speaker 1: What do you love?
00:22:51
Speaker 2: The numbers told the story they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
00:22:56
Speaker 1: This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone our.
00:23:00
Speaker 3: Number two of a numbers game at Visa, the Sports betting Network, Visa dot Com, Game plus, iHeart Radio YouTube TV. However, you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gill Alexander, It's Kelly Bidlin, It's a numbers game. Bark Canada at the d Still to come this hour, we are going to talk to Jonathan Davis on the NHL playoffs.
00:23:16
Speaker 1: Looking forward to that.
00:23:18
Speaker 3: We'll get Steve Fesick's Week one plays in the National Football League and Nick Whalen standing by as well.
00:23:24
Speaker 1: Adam Burke as well, later on. What are you nodding about? Nothing? Nothing? Okay, scurious, that's my nod of. I'm talking to the crew right now, Gilly, Oh, please continue. I'm sorry.
00:23:35
Speaker 3: I just bet Scotti Scheffler by the way, you did, Yeah cool, I bet Scotty Scheffler because you act.
00:23:41
Speaker 1: Did you get a little longer number? A little bit? Not too much? And I expect that's what I would expect.
00:23:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, because right now again at the PGA, Xander Shoffley five under through nine, he's got the one stroke advantage five under through nine, one one shot lead over Tony th Now it's your boy, right.
00:24:01
Speaker 4: Got top tens on both those guys. Let's go all right, Phoenix don't even really my boy, but he was that guy of like, I'm like, all the numbers say he should be good this week, but his pudder as it is. For for how much we've talked about Tony Fenou's putting before, it's.
00:24:15
Speaker 1: Like real bad right now, like real bad. For those wondering where the crack man is? You know where the crackman is? Kelly any idea? I don't know. Arizona, New Jersey.
00:24:26
Speaker 3: He's got to be left the state to go make bets on the NFL schedule release because they're taking more money out of state, good on than they are here in Nevada.
00:24:35
Speaker 1: Good for you, crack man. He'll be next week. What's he bet? Maybe wants to bet them first.
00:24:41
Speaker 3: Let us know we have the physics coming up, ladies, gentlemen. Comes to us courtesy the Progressive Guest Line. He's at rod O Wire. He's Nick Whalen. You can follow him on Twitter at Whalen. Substitute the number one for the letter L. How you doing, Nick?
00:24:55
Speaker 1: Doing well?
00:24:55
Speaker 2: Guys?
00:24:56
Speaker 6: Just another great weekend in the sports calendar. We got some huge NBA this weekend. Obviously, we got the PGA ongoing. I do identify it, by the way, with Tony Fenow as a horrendous, horrendous putter. You can say the same thing about me every weekend as you can Tony Fow. So I just want to get some support to Tony.
00:25:13
Speaker 3: That was very modern day of you too, that you identify as a port you kind.
00:25:18
Speaker 4: Of golfers are annoying, Like I'm the guy that's like, no, if it takes me less than five shots to get to the green, that's where I'm happy about.
00:25:25
Speaker 1: Oh, you're excited but putting.
00:25:26
Speaker 3: I don't care about how many times have you seen a pro golfer just be so upset with the shot of theirs and you're like, if I could have done that, I would be so happy.
00:25:33
Speaker 6: Yeah, I would love to be five under at any point in my life.
00:25:37
Speaker 3: That's right before we get to your NBA thoughts. This is fun with the NFL schedule is that the notion of survivor comes up as well? You have actually given this some thought for Week one?
00:25:49
Speaker 6: I have, man, I mean, first of all, I'm a sucker for the schedule release. I know some people complain about the NBA or exeuse me, the NFL just you know, monopolizing the sports calendar. It's like, you know, we're in the midst of the NBA playoffs and all everybody's talking about is the schedule release.
00:26:02
Speaker 1: I love it.
00:26:03
Speaker 6: I mean, we already know the teams, everybody's playing, like there really shouldn't be any surprises here, and yet it is kind of like Christmas morning finding out when your team is going to be heading where, and yeah, you got to, you know, start to get some action in right.
00:26:15
Speaker 2: All the lines can pop up right away.
00:26:17
Speaker 6: Over at the DK Sportsbook, and yeah, whether you're in circum million as I will be again this coming season, or if you're playing Circus Survivor, how's the time to start grinding that research, you know, I do a confidence pool pick the league, you know, where you rank every game one through sixteen each week. I'm already going through, you know, checking things out, doing some initial research. I think we have a few decent options if you're playing Circus survivor looking at week one, I think the most popular play, guys, is going to be Cincinnati at home against New England. That number is up to eight and a half now at DraftKings. That's on the rise even in the last twelve hours. I think that is by far going to be the most popular play. If you want to zag a little bit, you know, I think Seattle at home against what remains of the Denver Broncos could be an interesting play. I think there's a lot of positive momentum. Mike McDonald, I have no idea what Denver's going to be doing at quarterback. I think that's a team that will likely need a few weeks or even a couple of months to kind of hit its stride. I also like the Niners at home against the Jets. I know this Jets team will be a lot better with Aaron Rodgers, but you're still kind of starting fresh with Rogers. He's coming off the Achilles. He really didn't get any reps with this team last season. I think that is a brutal, brutal spot for the Jets staff to go on the road to San Francisco in Week one, and then the other one would be Tampa Bay. I'm still kind of making up my mind. Do I think Tampa Bay could carry over what it did last season? But I think they have a pretty soft landing in Week one against the Commander's team that will be starting a rookie quarterback.
00:27:37
Speaker 1: How dare you first of all on that one? How dare you?
00:27:42
Speaker 3: I have not given it enough of a look yet. My instinct though, is I don't want to burn the Bengals week one. I do not want to.
00:27:49
Speaker 1: Yeah to that.
00:27:49
Speaker 4: Well, you know what my first instinct quotes was that was, oh, I found a teaser.
00:27:54
Speaker 1: Leg already.
00:27:57
Speaker 4: Your obvious Week one teaser, guys, so y up, Packers up against the Eagles and.
00:28:02
Speaker 1: Bengals down there. It is sure those numbers will still just a Teaser of the Week.
00:28:06
Speaker 3: The other issue with Circus Survivor is we have two Wednesday Christmas Day games. Wednesday, let me repeat that Wednesday. So you got the Chiefs at the Steelers and you got the Ravens at the Texans. There's also a game the next day, Thursday, December twenty six, which is on Amazon. Kelly, get ready, that's the Seahawks at the Bears. Now, one would assume, and you know what they say about assuming it makes you regret what you thought initially.
00:28:36
Speaker 1: I believe it's the statement.
00:28:38
Speaker 3: One would assume that they will include all three of those games in the Christmas quarter They better, right, because if they don't, if they just state the better because they because if they only keep it to the two Christmas games, Can I make an outlanda statement? You're ready for an Atlanta statement? Buddy Tommy always goes, Can I make an outlanda statement? Goo warns you in advance. I'm gonna do that right now. If it's only the two Christmas games, I might consider not playing.
00:29:08
Speaker 1: Survivor at all. How about that?
00:29:09
Speaker 2: Wow?
00:29:11
Speaker 3: Because I think you do get to it. I think you do get to a point where you don't want to be involved. Forget the money. You don't want to be involved in something emotionally for that long. And know that there's this two game nonsense gamble, complete non gamble, and remember God knows something could happen and get postponed for whatever reason, right, and then you're down to one. You can't have that. So literally, it's to the point where if you if you have it, it's fewer than three games. I wonder how many people will be like, I'm gonna do it, I said, consider, by the way, I consider not playing all Right, NBA, Nick, Let's get to it. First of all, any observation on the uh, the Mavericks and the Thunder last night. I said earlier, this is a series I just cannot wrap my arms around at all.
00:30:06
Speaker 1: Like it.
00:30:06
Speaker 3: It's on paper it's the second best of the semi final series, but it's like the one we're from a handicapping standpoint, I have no idea what I've been watching. And so the Mavericks win it, and they win it handily. Last night They're headed back to Dallas to try to close out the Thunder in six that is not until Saturday.
00:30:25
Speaker 1: The MAVs are favored by four. Let's start there, What is your thought on this series?
00:30:30
Speaker 6: So I have been a Dallas better guys throughout this this playoff run, and I had mAbs and six in this series. Now we have a chance to to of course cash that on Saturday. But I'm with you, man, I've had a really tough grasp or a tough time getting a grasp on this series, specifically from a player prop perspective. I really thought this would be a series where Kyrie Irving would be able to feast, there'd be all this attention paid to Luka Danciic, and instead, you know, Okacs has adopted this strategy of throwing hard double teams at Kyrie Irving, especially over the last three games in the series, and for the most part, you know, Kyrie has just kind of sat back and made the right basketball plays, right. I mean, he's got what nine eleven and twelve points I believe over the last three games. He's just not really attacking those double teams with as much aggression as you'd expect from a guy like him who's comfortable, you know, making and taking tough shots. And you know, it's led to Dallas relying more on their role players, which in Rounte one did not go well. They could not identify a consistent third option whatsoever.
00:31:27
Speaker 2: But the combination of PJ.
00:31:29
Speaker 6: Washington, Derek Jones Junior, you know, Tim Hardaway has has re emerged, you know, as a guy who they can depend on now.
00:31:34
Speaker 2: Off the bench.
00:31:36
Speaker 6: It's a dicey strategy I think over the course of a series to essentially kind of be okay with Kyrie Irving just taking a big step back as a scorer. And part of the reason this series was two two going into last Night, Guys was because Luka doncich had not played like Luca. But when you get a thirty one, eleven and ten game with five threes from Luka Doncicch, like we finally saw last night, that makes that strategy a lot more difficult to execute if you're Okace. So I wonder if we see a pivot on SAT, did they throw a different defensive strategy out there? Is this an opportunity to Unlockkyrie Irving? But I would love to take Kyrie over twenty and a half points. I mean, his his points prop Guys is down like a full five points from where it was at the.
00:32:12
Speaker 2: Start of the series.
00:32:13
Speaker 6: But at the same time, there's just been so much game to game variance that I feel like I need to back away.
00:32:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, Nick, I was the guy last night who did it.
00:32:20
Speaker 4: I shot for Kyrie twenty five plus because like you're saying, like it's dropped so much, it's so tempting, but it might get unlocked after what Luca did last night. I watched him when he's hitting the step back threes. That's what was front Rimmen for about two weeks, and now that those are going in Watch.
00:32:37
Speaker 3: Out was the opposite of Steph Curry beautiful three as the Luca I'm just gonna shot.
00:32:43
Speaker 1: Put this up there.
00:32:44
Speaker 3: Oh look it went in tonight Nuggets tea Wolves game six back in Minnesota, Minnesota, trying to stave off elimination. They're favored by two and a half. Two oh five is the total? What do you got to here?
00:32:56
Speaker 2: Guys?
00:32:56
Speaker 6: I'm back on Denver, and you know, I myself, like everybody else, is kind of flip flopped two or three times in this series, right. I mean, when Denver goes down oh two, you know, we start to write their obituary and start to coordinate the Minnesota Timberwolves and start to look ahead and say, man, maybe they could beat the Boston Celtics, and now you fast forward a week and we're right back to where we were at the start of this series, where everyone's back on the Denver Nuggets. I think Denver has a very good chance to close this series out tonight, even on the road. I have no idea if Mike Conley is going to be out there. I think even if he does push through to play, he's probably not going to be anywhere close to one hundred percent. I mean, a veteran like Mike Conley, who at this point is kind of running out of opportunities to make a run to the NBA Finals, that guy's got to be very injured to miss a game in this spot. So I don't know that we see Conley out there tonight, and we saw how big that is for the Minnesota offense, just not really having any other options outside of Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony Town.
00:33:46
Speaker 2: So I'm on the Nuggets.
00:33:47
Speaker 6: In terms of props, I'm going with Anthony Edwards over twenty nine and a half points. You can get that a plus one hundred, and I know Denver's doend a good job on him defensively over these last couple of games. But even if you think Minnesota is losing tonight, it's hard to imagine and not going down swinging. I don't think he's going to settle for like an eighteen point night in a do or die back against the Wall game six. I don't know if we can depend on Karl Anthony Towns to provide decent secondary options for the Timberwolves. So I think this is an anti Edward spot even if you think Minnesota goes down. And I also like TCP over one and a half threes plus one thirty.
00:34:20
Speaker 1: There you go very thorough by the way. Well, yes, no question the PACER's going to force a game seven tomorrow.
00:34:23
Speaker 2: I think they do.
00:34:26
Speaker 6: I think they force a game seven and they lose in game seven, and then they lose in game seven.
00:34:29
Speaker 1: Nick, great talking to you. Thank you for the Survivor thoughts week one.
00:34:33
Speaker 6: Hey anytime, guys, thanks for having me at Whalen.
00:34:35
Speaker 3: That's a number one instead of the letter L for Nick Jonathan Davis on the NHL Next.
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00:35:43
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00:35:48
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00:35:59
Speaker 3: What I ended up having here in the NHL is and I don't know that we expected this to happen, but we have three out of the four conference semis going to a sixth game, and we have a fourth that is headed to a fifth game, notted up at to a piece. And to help us navigate through what has been a fascinating NHL playoffs is Jonathan Davis.
00:36:17
Speaker 1: Everybody.
00:36:17
Speaker 3: We're always thrilled that Jonathan spent some time with us courtesy the Progressive Guest Line. He's the host of ice Cap on Sirius XM NHL and host of Show Me the Money Hockey betting podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at West Coast HKY. How you doing, Jonathan, Great to see you, man.
00:36:35
Speaker 2: I'm doing great. It is. Yeah, it's just a great night ahead in the Stanley Cup playoffs, we have, Yeah, we've got another elimination game, and we've had three teams that have had chances to eliminate their opponent and they're all there are combined. Oh and what four now? Yeah, in these elimination games.
00:36:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hockey, man, and it's just a none of these have ended, and so we have, as you talked about, we have one more chance at this tonight. One of the two is a protests elimination game, and it begins with the Rangers and the Hurricanes, where the Rangers still are up three games to two now in the series, but Carolina is a minus one sixty favorite in game six, and I we're showing minus one sixty six. And now correct me if I'm wrong here, Jonathan. This is one of those where even when the Rangers were up three, they were up three to zero, right, and then three to one.
00:37:24
Speaker 1: Now it's three two. I mean, this has happened.
00:37:26
Speaker 3: Unlike basketball, where it's never happened that the team has come back from a three to nothing deficit, it has happened a few times in the NHL.
00:37:32
Speaker 1: It felt like most people.
00:37:34
Speaker 3: Felt like like the Hurricanes, even down three to nothing, had a legit shot at this no question.
00:37:40
Speaker 2: I mean, Okay, so you always hear, you know, the fourth game is always the toughest to win, and it's proving out so far in three of the four series. This is a series that you know, really did have a feel early on that it should have been going long. It should have been going six games. I mean, Carolina deserve the better fate. They had outplayed the Rangers in a couple of the early games and just kept falling one goal short. It's interesting, you know, I was texting back and forth with Jeff Benson after, you know, before game five, and you know, I was looking at the numbers, and you know, you had eighty six percent bets and ninety three percent money on the on the on the Rangers in game number five. Yet that line didn't move, and I think it may have been somewhat to do with the liability that that books already had on Carolina. We're seeing it again today. I mean, the Rangers are only are getting thirty four percent bets, but just seventeen percent of the money, and that line where the Hurricanes are, and the line keeps jumping up a little towards Carolina. I'm not going to play aside in this one, you know, guys, I'm looking at at a prop and because for me, the Carolina Hurricanes have changed the way they've played the last couple of games. They're they're a team that's really all about shot volume and not necessarily shot quality, and now they're going more for shot quality. So Egorsh just Stirk in under thirty and a half saves is the way I'm approaching this game tonight.
00:38:59
Speaker 1: Just under thirty and a half saves the Rangers goaltender.
00:39:02
Speaker 3: So rather than laying the minus one sixty six, you're gonna play it with that derivative prop right there, play the under saves on Shasterkin. Okay, as the Hurricanes look to force a game seven back in New York in that series, then we have the one series that's still knotted up at two games apiece, and this is out West, and this is to determine what will be the de facto Canadian representative if you will in the final four here two to two, and you have a play on an Edmonton oiler here specifically on Leon dry Sidle.
00:39:31
Speaker 1: What are you doing?
00:39:33
Speaker 2: Well, Look, this has been one that I've been on since Game one of the playoffs. Leon DREI title over a point and a half, and I started out in game one of the LA series when it was plus one ninety five and here we are eight games later and it's now down to plus one oh six, and it actually closed at minus one point fifteen going into Game number four. But yeah, he's had two or more points in eight of the nine games. For me, you know, he has been the most valuable player in the playoffs to date. I just can't shy away from this prop. And I'm getting plus money. So for me, this this is, you know, this is the is the safest bet from a value standpoint. The Vancouver connucts have tremendous value at that at plus money. So I can understand if someone wants to play Vancouver. I mean, look, they've got two of the next three games on their home ice. I'm just not I'm just more comfortable with what's been the safest and the best play for I think throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs is leon over one and a half points.
00:40:33
Speaker 3: But if somebody came to you and say they want to take an adjusted price on the on the Canucks, you would be okay with that to win the series, I understand, sure.
00:40:40
Speaker 2: I mean, look, they've played well enough that they could they could be up three to one, I mean there's no question. But yeah, I'm just so the value is with Vancouver. But for me, again, yet, like I say, how can you go away from a guy who just continues to dominate on the ice.
00:40:55
Speaker 3: All right, So the two props today from Jonathan Davis Igorsha Stirk in under thirty and a half saves for the Rangers tonight, and then Leon drysidele of the Oilers over one and a half points in the Oilers Canucks Game five back in Vancouver. We won't be able to talk to you before tomorrow's two. Game six is but I wanted to get your thoughts. Bruins staved off elimination. They are back on their home ice for Game six, trying to not up their series against the Florida Panthers at three apiece. Florida is still a favorite in that game about minus one fifty. And then the Stars in the Avalanche, the Avalanche staving off elimination last night where they're five to three win over the Star Stars, still up three to two in that series. But we're back in Colorado where the Latch are a slight favorite in Game six tomorrow.
00:41:37
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on either of those two, Well.
00:41:39
Speaker 2: It's some interesting numbers with both those. So the Colorado Avalanche are six to zero in a series when they trail three games to one in Game number six or game number five. They've won six straight games, but they're two and fourteen. In game number six when they trail three three games to two, so interesting, I'm there. Look, Dallas is the better team, but that was a gutsy win by the Colorado Avalanche last night. Yeah, they look like a team, you know, especially after what happened to them. You know in game number four that I just didn't think they were going to have it in them. But you know, look, Dallas's goaltender, Jake Ottinger came up short. Just not one of his better games. He has to be better, you know. For me, the over is the play in this one. I'm just I love the value. I just think that, you know, these two teams traditionally. I think it's now ten of their last thirteen games regular season in playoffs have gone over. So I'll play the over right now. That's what I'm looking at. And in Boston and Florida, Yeah, look, Boston's gonna get a boost from getting their captain Brad mar Shant back. It looks like he will return after missing the last two games. The Bruins are just like a lunch paale hockey team. They don't have the talent that Florida has, but they just keep gutting out victories.
00:42:55
Speaker 1: Still.
00:42:55
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, for me, Florida is the much deeper team. They had a bit of a hiccup in in game number five. I think they win Game number six, and I think and for me, I would play Florida on the punk line.
00:43:06
Speaker 3: All right, So let me ask the basic question, who's in the finals? Who's in the Stanley Cup Finals in your opinion, and who wins it.
00:43:13
Speaker 2: I think it's Dallas and Florida in the Stanley Cup Final, And oh god, I'll go with Florida right now, because I think they've got the best goaltender between the two in Bobrovsky.
00:43:25
Speaker 1: We're talking about okaysk.
00:43:27
Speaker 2: In Bbroski we trust more than right now, we trust Jake Ottinger.
00:43:31
Speaker 1: All right.
00:43:31
Speaker 3: And then here's my question for next year. Obviously we don't know the numbers, we don't have all of the betting markets up at all. But give me a team that either they stuck into the postseason, maybe they didn't even make the playoffs at all, that you think your hunches will be undervalued in betting markets heading into next season.
00:43:52
Speaker 2: Oh God, a team that's going to be undervalued in betting markets next season.
00:43:59
Speaker 1: In other words, they got the worst of it this year. Thanks.
00:44:01
Speaker 2: No, no, no, I'm trying to think, you know what, I'm gonna go with the Salt Lake whatevers. I think that I would play their their point total over next season.
00:44:12
Speaker 1: The Utah Yetties. That's what That's what it's gonna be, Jonathan, that's right, Utah Yeddies. Yeah.
00:44:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, Matt Brown and I kicked around the list last week of what I remember.
00:44:21
Speaker 2: I remember, yes, I remember. We talked about don't we want to have the Utah blizzard so they could face the Carolina hurricane.
00:44:27
Speaker 1: That's that's what Jonathan wanted. Yeah, you want storms gliding. Utah yeties is hot. Yeah, that's good. I like it hot.
00:44:35
Speaker 3: All right, Jonathan, We appreciate it. Thank you so much. Great talking to you.
00:44:38
Speaker 2: Always a pleasure. Guys, have a great rest of your day.
00:44:40
Speaker 3: You too, Jonathan Davis everybody. Once again, you can follow him on Twitter at West Coast HKY that's West Coast Hockey, host of the host of ice cap on series XMNHL, host of Show Me the Money, the OCCY betting podcast called Show me the money. Check it out fan vote for the new name of the Utah team Utah. Yes, I like that, and it is gonna be It's gonna be Utah. It won't be Salt Lake City, which that was the first question I had from Matt, because you know, the name kind of goes to you know, goes with the together, right, because the yetti has been discovered in Utah.
00:45:15
Speaker 4: But like Salt Lake City yeties doesn't flow that Utah yet Utah Yeties would still be better than the oxymoron that is the Utah Jazz.
00:45:26
Speaker 1: Jumbo Shrimp.
00:45:27
Speaker 4: There were a lot of names we had a question where like what does this have to do with Utah?
00:45:30
Speaker 1: And then we google and we're like a.
00:45:32
Speaker 3: Guest host Utah Jazz. Of course they hold over from New Orleans, which did make sense or NFL schedule mix