How Donald Trump Can Win On Social Security

Donald Trump will face off against President Joe Biden for the second time in November, and while debates are currently raging over a broad range of topics—from border security to abortion to the economy—voters' fears over Social Security's future could work in Trump's favor following a recent report.

Trump will be on the presidential ballot for the third time, seeking a return to the White House after being voted out of office in 2020, and polling over the past months has shown that the rematch will be tight.

The release of the Social Security Administration's (SSA) 2023 trustees report has thrust the agency back into the spotlight at a particularly pertinent time. While there was some mild good news, with the date of the impending insolvency crisis being pushed back from 2034 to a year later, a huge problem still persists. If lawmakers don't take action in the next decade, the SSA will effectively go bust in 2035 and benefits will automatically be cut by a quarter for future retirees.

Given that 70.6 million beneficiaries benefited from $1.3 trillion in entitlements during the 2023 fiscal year, it's no wonder voters are concerned about the agency's financial prospects.

Both Biden and Trump have drawn different lines on how to fix the looming crisis—and American voters are taking notice. According to exclusive polling conducted for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on April 6, nearly half (48 percent) of 4,000 respondents said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who ran on the promise of cutting Social Security entitlements. In the same poll, 36 percent said they trusted Trump with Social Security, while 41 percent said the same of Joe Biden.

"Americans have never seen Social Security as welfare, but as an earned entitlement, part of the social contract itself," Taylor Desloge, visiting assistant professor of history at Connecticut College, told Newsweek. So, given the importance of the long-standing national program, how is Trump fighting to preserve Social Security?

Newsweek has contacted Trump's 2024 campaign via email for comment.

What has Trump promised?

The last time Trump—in writing—updated his Social Security stance was in January 2023. As part of his Agenda47 campaign, the former president said that "under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security."

"DO NOT CUT the benefits our seniors worked for and paid for their entire lives. Save Social Security," Trump said. "Don't destroy it. The Democrats are looking to destroy Social Security. We are not going to let them do it."

To keep funding the program, Trump proposed cutting the "hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars going to corrupt foreign countries" as well as the "mass-releases of illegal aliens that are depleting our social safety net." He also drew attention to cutting "left-wing gender programs from our military" and reducing "waste, fraud, and abuse everywhere that we can find it."

Since then, Trump has made various comments that seem to contradict his 2023 announcement. "There's a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting," he said in an interview with CNBC in March, sparking an immediate outcry from Biden and launching the battle over who can take better care of the system. He later walked back the comments, saying in an interview with right-wing news outlet Breitbart that he "will never do anything that will jeopardize or hurt Social Security or Medicare."

How can Trump win 2024 on Social Security?

Jamie E. Wright, lawyer and political pundit, suggested Trump is already on to a winner when compared to Biden's plans, which will raise taxes on America's wealthy to keep the program afloat.

"Trump's commitment to economic growth and tax relief suggests a focus on stimulating the economy to generate the revenue needed to support Social Security," Wright told Newsweek. "His strategies, while contentious, have the potential to drive economic recovery, which could indirectly benefit the Social Security fund.

"In contrast, Biden's approach has focused on increasing taxes on the wealthy to secure Social Security's future, but this plan faces significant political resistance and may be difficult to implement. When comparing their [Biden and Trump's] proposals, Trump's approach may offer a more dynamic solution, leveraging economic growth to ensure Social Security's sustainability. By fostering a stronger economy, his policies could provide the necessary resources to maintain and even expand Social Security benefits."

Wright also pointed out that Trump should hammer home the possible results of Biden's Social Security plans. However "well-intentioned," Wright says "Biden's plan to increase taxes on high earners aims for direct funding but could face hurdles in Congress, potentially delaying much-needed reforms."

Nevertheless, as appealing as it might be to stimulate the economy—a key issue for many voters—Trump hits a stalling block within his own party, Desloge points out.

In a fiscal year 2025 budget proposal, House Budget Committee Republicans advocated creating a fiscal commission that would cut spending on welfare and health care programs for future generations, including raising the retirement age for future retirees.

Desloge said Trump is going out of his way "to not take a coherent position on entitlements" to avoid having to take a hard line with either the electorate or his own party, something that could trip him up in the months to come.

"He is caught between a long-term conservative push to reform entitlements and a growing GOP reliance on the votes of older, working-class voters who rely upon Social Security for their livelihood," he told Newsweek.

Trump's seeming insistence on taking no outright view on Social Security could backfire. Newsweek polling of 1,000 registered voters from February responded to a statement asking whether they were concerned regarding GOP plans for tax breaks being given to wealthy individuals and large corporations that would result in cuts to Social Security and Medicare. It found that 61 percent of Republican respondents indicated they were either somewhat or very concerned—a demographic Trump will need to bring fully on side if he wants to be in office come next year.

What happens next?

Regardless of who takes the White House in November, Justin Buchler, associate professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University, said the solution to the Social Security crisis will be down to whoever is leading Congress at the time. "Neither Biden nor Trump have any real plans. Biden is unlikely to reduce spending in any way, and what that does to the solvency of the fund would depend on the gimmick he selects for a short-term patch," Buchler told Newsweek.

"Trump has no plans, as such, and if you asked him what COLA is, he'd tell you something about Coke or Pepsi."

"Neither could do anything without Congress anyway, and any plan that comes out of a Republican Congress would look different from a plan coming out of a Democratic Congress," he added. "No plan out of either would have any long-term fixes, but a Republican plan would be less generous to retirees at a lower cost, and a Democratic plan would be more generous to retirees at a higher cost. What you think is better is a matter of your ideological perspective."