5 Teams With Best Chance to Make College Football Playoff for First Time in 2024

After a 12-14 record from 2021-22, Missouri took a significant step forward in coach Eli Drinkwitz's fourth year with an 11-2 record and No. 8 final ranking in the Associated Press Top 25.

Although there will be some skepticism about the Tigers being a one-hit wonder, this program has plenty of staying power in '24.

Quarterback Brady Cook - one of the SEC's breakout stars last season - returns to anchor an offense that should be among the best in the conference. Cook ranked fourth in the SEC with an average of 279.7 total yards a game last year and returns a supporting cast that includes the nation's No. 1 receiver in Luther Burden III. In addition to Burden III, Theo Wease (49 catches), Mookie Cooper (36), and Marquis Johnson (29.5 yards per catch) round out one of college football's top receiving corps.

Cook also has help from a line that returns three starters and added capable replacements in the portal in Marcus Bryant (SMU) and Cayden Green (Oklahoma). Also, transfers Nate Noel (Appalachian State) and Marcus Carroll (Georgia State) ease the loss of Cody Schrader at running back.

Turnover on defense is Drinkwitz's biggest concern. New coordinator Corey Batoon inherits five starters but a couple of key additions - lineman Chris McClellan, edge Darris Smith, and cornerback Toriano Pride - from the portal will help keep this group near the top of the SEC.

Even if the defense isn't quite up to last year's standard, Missouri's schedule is a huge asset in its race to claim a playoff spot. A road date at Texas A&M and a home contest versus Oklahoma are swing games, but a trip to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama might be the only contest where the Tigers are a clear underdog.

Coming off the best win total in program history (11), the Rebels are going for it in '24. Coach Lane Kiffin's team returns a strong core with 13 returning starters and reeled in a portal haul that could be the best in college football.

Kiffin's high-powered offense averaged 35.1 points a game last season and returns several key pieces from that unit, including quarterback Jaxson Dart and receiver Tre Harris. Although running back Quinshon Judkins will be missed, Ulysses Bentley IV (540 yards in '23) and incoming transfers Henry Parrish and Jacory Croskey-Merritt provide a capable trio on the ground. Also, transfer receiver Juice Wells (South Carolina) adds even more pop to a passing game that includes the SEC's best tight end in Caden Prieskorn.

With all of the offensive firepower in Oxford, making the CFB Playoff for the first time will hinge on one factor: Defensive improvement. After giving up 31.3 points in SEC play in '22, the Rebels cut that total to 26.9 under new coordinator Pete Golding last season. Six starters are back, but the biggest reason for optimism is a group of transfers that includes two impact defensive linemen in Walter Nolen (Texas A&M) and Princely Umanmielen (Florida) and help at linebacker and in the secondary.

With a favorable path to double-digit wins, an explosive offense, and an improving defense, everything is in place for Ole Miss to earn its first CFB Playoff trip this year.

With four top-10 finishes under coach James Franklin, Penn State has been on the verge of its first CFB Playoff berth for a couple of seasons. Considering how close this program has been, expansion to 12 teams should benefit the Nittany Lions as much as any team in college football.

Former Indiana coach Tom Allen takes over the defensive coordinator duties after Manny Diaz left to be the head coach at Duke. Despite the turnover at the top, Penn State's defense should once again rank among the best in the nation. Six starters are back for Allen, including end Abdul Carter, safeties Jaylen Reed and Kevin Winston, and linebackers Kobe King. Rising star Tony Rojans joins King at linebacker, with transfers A.J. Harris and Jalen Kimber fortifying the cornerback spot.

If the Nittany Lions are going to take the next step and actually reach the 12-team event, then the offense needs to make strides under new play-caller Andy Kotelnicki. He arrives in Happy Valley after guiding Kansas' offense to an average of over 30 points in back-to-back years (2022-23). The backfield tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen is dynamic, but quarterback Drew Allar and a questionable group of receivers must step up in '24.

The Volunteers enter '24 with big-time question marks in the secondary and overall defensive production after giving up 27.6 points a game in SEC contests last season. However, with preseason All-American James Pearce (10 sacks) leading the way in the trenches, coordinator Tim Banks at least has a solid foundation to build around up front.

Although Tennessee needs overall improvement on defense to push Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss at the top of the SEC in '24, the offense has enough firepower to lead coach Josh Heupel's team to the CFB Playoff.

Former five-star recruit Nico Iamaleava is primed for a breakout year at quarterback and should spark an offense that managed only 24.4 points in SEC contests in '23. Iamaleava's development is the No. 1 reason to believe the Volunteers can make a run at the playoff, especially with a supporting cast that includes one of the SEC's best offensive lines and an improved receiving corps. 

Early road dates versus NC State (neutral site game in Charlotte) and Oklahoma should give Tennessee a good idea of where it stacks up in the SEC before a crucial two-game home stretch in October with Alabama and Florida coming to Rocky Top.

The Utes were a win away from the CFB Playoff in 2019 and finished No. 12 ('21) and No. 10 ('22) in the final Associated Press poll. Not only will the expansion of the CFB Playoff help coach Kyle Whittingham's team in the at-large consideration, but the Utes have a chance at a first-round bye if they can win the Big 12 this fall.

Whittingham's squad is once again built on the backbone of a solid defense. Eight starters are back from coordinator Morgan Scalley's group that limited teams to 19.3 points a game in the Pac-12 last year. A few holes need to be plugged in the secondary with the loss of safeties Sione Vaki and Cole Bishop, along with cornerback JaTravis Broughton. However, Utah's track record on this side of the ball suggests Whittingham and Scalley will quickly find the right options.

The return of quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe after both missed all of '23 due to injuries is a huge boost to the offense. The Utes averaged only 23.2 points a game last year and struggled to generate explosive plays (just 19 of 30-plus yards).

With Rising back in the fold, and a solid offensive line set to lead the way, Utah's offense should be one of the most-improved units in the new-look Big 12.

A Sept. 21 road trek to Oklahoma State looms large, but the Utes get Arizona and Iowa State at home. Also, Utah won't have to play Kansas, Kansas State, or West Virginia in its new conference home.

Louisville/NC State/Virginia Tech
Pencil in a sleeper team from the ACC here. Both Florida State and Clemson are vulnerable atop the league. Can one of these three teams make a run?

Kansas State
New quarterback Avery Johnson is primed for a breakout season. Can the Wildcats fill the voids from a standout offensive line to win the Big 12?

Miami
Can the Hurricanes realize their potential in coach Mario Cristobal's third year? The transfer additions of quarterback Cam Ward (Washington State) and Damien Martinez (Oregon State) certainly help.

Oklahoma State
The Cowboys return the most starters (20) in the Big 12 off a team that went to the Big 12 title game last season.

Texas A&M
It's a longshot for the Aggies to make the 12-team playoff. However, a favorable home slate - Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU, and Texas all come to College Station - and a talented roster gives new coach Mike Elko a chance to make a splash in Year 1.

Steven Lassan is the senior college football writer and editor for AthlonSports.com. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook.