The announcement that Joseph Biden and Donald Trump will hold their first debate on June 27 begs the question: Do debates decide the outcome of elections? There is little evidence of that, so, necessarily, the next questions are: Do debates matter? What does history tell us? Are the circumstances underlying this year’s election likely to follow the lessons of history?

The most famous debates in United States political history took place in Illinois, then largely a rural state, in the late summer and early fall of 1858, when Republican Abraham Lincoln, a largely unknown moderate anti-slavery activist, campaigned to replace powerful Democratic Sen. Stephen A. Douglas. Lincoln and Douglas met seven times, and, well before the invention of electronic sound systems, they spoke to large crowds in the open air, without amplification. Most historians believe that Lincoln made better arguments about the western expansion of slavery, which was the dominant issue, but Douglas was re-elected by the state legislature in accordance with the constitutional rule of that time. Nevertheless, Lincoln became a national figure and was elected president two years later.

Senior citizens like me are old enough to remember the debates between Republican Vice President Richard Nixon and Democratic Sen.John Kennedy in 1960. Although both were relatively young, they were well-known to the public, and Cold War international tensions were high. Commentators believe that television audiences favored Kennedy, who was handsome and charismatic, but Americans who listened to the debates on the radio, and in 1960, there still were many, thought Nixon was more persuasive. Kennedy won the election, but the popular voting was among the closest in history.   

Nearly a year ago, during the primary season, Trump artfully dodged debates, leaving his rivals to argue among themselves. At one point, Trump explained why he refused to debate his challengers, candidly saying, “I'm not looking to give them any credibility.” Since it became clear that Trump would be the Republican nominee, his tune has changed, raining taunts and insults on Biden, clearly attempting to goad the president into an early face-to-face encounter. 

On June 27, what can the American people expect? For a couple of reasons, it is highly unlikely we will see or hear anything new. First, few presidential elections have been contested by candidates as well known to the public as Biden and Trump. The last time the incumbent president faced a former president was 1912, when sitting Republican William Howard Taft was challenged by Theodore Roosevelt, a Republican running as a Progressive. Ironically, Democrat Woodrow Wilson won the election.  

Second, we live in a complicated, often dangerous, world, and that requires cautious and pragmatic leadership. What could Biden or Trump say in debate that differs significantly from policies they already pursued in the White House? Biden has been in national government almost continuously since the early 1970s. Trump has dominated politics and the media’s coverage of it for nearly 10 years. The biggest surprise will be if the Biden-Trump debates produce any big surprises. 

As a result, it is most likely that the June 27 broadcast, and other debates, if there are any, will turn on the public’s assessment of presentation and personality. That deeply concerns me because it invites shallowness. Electing the president cannot simply be a popularity contest. It should turn on voters’ careful understanding of the leading issues of the day and the candidates’ competence to address them.

Communication might be the most important skill we expect of the contemporary American president, and almost all the great presidents have been great communicators. But there is a substantial difference between effectively connecting with the people of the nation, and political theater, which is a form of entertainment.

The presidential election of 2024 could prove to be one of the most significant in recent U.S. history. Few issues have the moral clarity of events that led to the Civil War. For that reason, on June 27 and the debate or debates that follow, we must watch and listen very carefully before deciding. The future clearly depends on it.

Steven S. Berizzi is a professor of history & political science, emeritus at Connecticut State Community College Norwalk.