The post-budget polling avalanche rumbles on:
• Yesterday’s Financial Review had a Freshwater Strategy poll with two-party preferred at 50-50, unchanged on mid-April, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 14% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 37% and steady on 45% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down a point on both to 31% and 40% respectively. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 45-39 to 46-37. Twenty-four per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 46% no difference, but 39% felt it would have an upward impact on interest rates compared with only 11% for downward and 28% for no effect. Nonetheless, questions on which parties were better placed to handle various areas of policy found Labor doing better on the whole than last month, having widened their lead on welfare and benefits and narrowed deficits on economic management, crime and social order and immigration and asylum. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1056.
• The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor and the Coalition unchanged at 31% and 34% of the primary vote respectively, but with the Greens down to 10%, One Nation up one to 8% and 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged with the Coalition leading 47% to 46% and the remainder undecided. Last time it was noted here that the 2PP+ implied an unusually strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition – this remains the case this time in lesser degree, my own estimate of two-party preferred based on 2022 election preference flows being 51-49 in favour of Labor. All the major initiatives in the budget recorded strong support, but only 27% thought it would make a meaningful difference to the cost of living. Sixty per cent felt only low and middle-income households should get the $300 energy rebate, with only 35% favouring it going to all households as per the government’s approach. The poll had a sample of 1149 and was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday – there will be more detail in the full release later today.
• After four successive weeks at 52-48, the regular Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 14.5% (up one) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1674.
FUBAR
“Cheap, reliable brown coal” sounds like a good slogan.
Trouble is with this stuff (lignite) is while it is fairly easy to get at with not much overburden – and as far as the Latrobe Valley is concerned there is enough of it to last a very long time – it is not very environmentally friendly.
The SEC of Victoria and its successors have been polluting the area since the 1920s from the smoke stacks of Yallourn and other bigger stations in the Valley. In addition, nobody, yet, has figured out what to do about the holes in the ground stretching from Yallourn North to Traralgon – other than flooding them.
Brown coal in Victoria is a bit like black coal it the UK and elsewhere. Sure, it can be burned to boil water to make steam to drive turbines to make electricity, but there are better ways of doing this…..
MI
The 900 was sent to people who had done a tax return that year. So I guess there would have been non citizens and deceased. People have been known to die after doing their tax return. And doing a tax return is usually part of finalising an estate.
But the usual suspects in the media had a field day.
It was seen as the most efficient way to get money out.
My son was working for Coles at the time and managers were fuming as they were way under budget.
The money went out in early December and pre Christmas spending went back to normal.
Had the desired effect.
FUBAR
[Sorry to have to disabuse you Eastern Staters once again but the East Coast is not the Nation. Typical arrogance – just ignore the rest of the Nation.]
Well consideration where it’s due……
“typical arrogance” is your specialty platoon commander.
I see Melbourne University has had enough of the disruptive protests over the Palestine conflict and is now considering expelling students if they persist with it. All I can say is what took them so long.
I agree with the esteemed Antony Green’s observations on the likelihood of a May 25 election. As David Crowe noted the budget does not feel like an election budget, and there’s no particular focus or campaign strategy angle being planted by Albo.
But with that said there’s a bit of energy gearing up for one sooner. We just got doorknocked by the Greens for the first time in the Division of Adelaide. A number of fundraisers for federal Labor seats are happening. Letterboxing from local MP for the first time this term. MPs are reminding everyone on socials they’ve met promises (Butler even has a picture with corflutes). Preselections locking in.
In Albo’s shoes, where you feel ahead right now, do you gamble on the uncertainty though to May 25? The economy is still tenuous. The media has turned. The shine is off on the polling. Dare I say it Dutton is even beginning to be humanised (as entertaining as Shorten running laps around him was, Dutton being a bit nervous on his lines is better PR than Robot Voldemort). There’s the US election. The momentum at state elections is very likely to be against Labor. And call it a vibe but with everything going on internationally a black swan event feels in the air.
Tricot:
You did not mention the fact that the money provided by Rudd for home insulation was to keep home insulation outfits in business. As it turned out a lot were cowboys who were careless in the extreme.
Rubbish.
The program stipulated that existing stocks of insulation couldn’t be used. That alone sent existing contractors broke, since they hold large stocks and Rudd made those worthless with the stroke of a pen.
The ‘cowboys’ were new contractors who had no domain knowledge of the industry. Fires and fatalities were guaranteed by the scope of the program.
https://theshovel.com.au/2024/05/20/gina-rinehart-portrait-so-lifelike-barnaby-expectsed-cheque/
https://theshovel.com.au/2024/05/20/australian-swimmers-digging-at-gina-rineharts-roy-hill-mine-deny-she-has-too-much-influence/
Still wondering why all those so concerned about HECS debts being incurred by poor students are nto up in arms about the same students not getting what they pay for through the leaderships of the Universities allowing facilities to be illegally taken over. Aren’t they entitled to a refund?
MM, a lot in your post but just on the Greens door knocking. They have lifted the successful Brisbane campaign from the 2022 election and put it into action in Adelaide. They undertook a year long grass roots door knocking campaign before that election and it paid large dividends.
That makes sense, but I dont really know enough about Adelaide to have a view on it being the best city to do that. In the round up of the 2022 election though, I simply cant move away from Scott Morrison being the biggest driver of voter intentions.
Tricot says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2024 at 11:15 am
…but they are not doing it, and what they are doing is fucking expensive and unreliable.
How’s the Victorian SEC doing? Cheaper power for everyone!!!! (or more Union jobs – whatever).
AAP has more details on the two government-assisted flights set to depart New Caledonia, as riots and unrest mar the French territory in the Pacific. Foreign minister Penny Wong confirmed Australia had received clearance for two flights after the international airport was shut down, and the government would “continue to work on further flights”. Wong spoke with her New Zealand and French counterparts yesterday to request access to the territory. The Australian defence force was on standby to assist and were ready to fly as soon as they were permitted, prime minister Anthony Albanese said.
At least six people have died and hundreds more were injured after violence erupted last week after controversial electoral reforms passed in Paris. Australia has urged people to reconsider their need to travel to New Caledonia.
Had the Greens door knocking in North Perth. They weren’t up for a debate, or a very angry Chihuahua – Jack Russel Cross who is a very good judge of character. I went back to cleaning the gas BBQ that they want to get rid of.
‘Normal’ net migration historically is about 80,000 per annum
It has been severely distorted in the last 20 years by successive governments and most atrociously by this current Labor mob.
Anyone who claims that Dutton’s very slight reduction in runaway migration is fanciful is ignorant of the facts.
The trend away from this Labor mob is undeniable.
And will only get worse as unemployment goes up.
The idiots within Labor have fallen right into Dutton’s trap; Chalmers and Albo saying Dutton’s very minor adjustment is bad policy goes against the lived experience of most Australians. They are now arguing against reducing migration? Unless they do a hard backflip and quickly match or better Dutton’s target they are done and dusted at the next election.
Labor arguing AGAINST cutting migration is arguing FOR increased homelessness, hunger games in the rental market, stickier inflation, higher unemployment, congested roads, congested hospitals, house prices to the moon.
High migration really is the underlying issue for most of the cost of living crisis currently being felt across the community. And the people know it.
I’ve been saying this for a long time but this one issue alone will get the Liberals into minority government. And Labor have allowed it to happen because they seem incapable of reading the public mood.
It’s not just the racist RWNJ calling for decreasing runaway migration, it’s two thirds of the Australian population.
In this perverse alternate universe you have an alliance of Labor apologists and Green globalists helping out big business and the property industry support mass migration and never wanting to appear ‘racist’ – truly bizarre.
MM 11.19
Dutton has nothing to go on at the moment.
Nuclear won’t work for the LNP.
The referendum on racism was won but hasn’t moved in the polling.
The economy is holding up.
Trade is holding up.
Houses prices have slowed.
Wages are up.
The Teals thingies seems as strong as a very.
Boats aren’t as attractive as they were (but he does have in his back pocket)
Immigration is Dutton’s only chance.
(and could impact negatively)
Those polls seem reluctant to “jump the Rubicon”
Despondency is beginning to ooze from the opposition members, the voices louder, more shrill, desperate and a massive need for Queenlanders to do what Queenlanders do at their next election.
Aqualung, I dont love the fact that the Australian swim team has been politicized by both sides. But it is of some value to see that athletes dont exist as political neuters like they have been mostly characterized in the past.
Nuclear won’t work for the LNP.
Addresses NetZero 2050? ✔
Up and running before CoalFired is shut down and blown up? ✔
Verdict: WINNER
Arf, Arf, Arf back at the aptly named Sealion.
Immigration is likely to be a plus for LNP in some areas but a negative in others. I can’t for example see it as a positive in the teal seats but it will probably play well in the straight LNP vs Labor seats. But even there the most marginal seats at the moment are not the ones most affected by the housing crush – Gilmore, Lyons, Lingiari (of course Gilmore is likely to change a bit). But it might work in 2 LNP vs Green seats (Ryan and Brisbane).
The problem is when it becomes an open debate it just becomes numbers and the general public (and the majority of journalists) get lost. Then it is just about the narrative and the tone of approach is going to be critical.
“High migration really is the underlying issue for most of the cost of living crisis currently being felt across the community. ”
As a bald statement unsupported by facts, this takes the cake.
Good luck selling your low migration to the business community.
The policy is of course straight out of the Trump and Braverman playbook. It may be successful, but no one can predict its efficacy politically. I hope it is not successful, because it is really a dog act of a policy, based as it is on latent racism and spurious economic arguments. Having said that, after the resounding loss of The Voice debate, the voting public might just buy it.
Aqualung it doesn’t hurt for elite athletes to get their hands dirty occasionally.. 🙂
Financial Times: The White House said the US and Saudi Arabia were close to an agreement on the bilateral elements of a security deal that would be part of a broader settlement with Israel.
The announcement followed a visit by Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, to the Middle East.
“Jake was able to make significant progress on the bilateral elements of what we believe would be a truly historic deal that would lead to a more integrated region,” John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesperson, told reporters on Monday.
And remember, Dutton is only proposing cuts for 2 years…I cannot imagine the housing crisis, started under Howard, will be fixed in that time.
RE: Australian Swim team – Swimming is not a major sport globally. You need clean water and a warm temperature to swim. So it is a basically a rich world sport. But every 4 years, Australia goes nuts for a handful swimmers who’s future will generally involve selling milk, getting AVO and facing drug charges.
davidwh @ #120 Tuesday, May 21st, 2024 – 11:51 am
With a bit of lateral thinking. Become FIFO workers and Gina builds an Olympic pool. Train in between shifts.
Taxpayers no longer have to support the swimmers and the swimmers get a pretty good income and post swimming career.
I am yet to see a positive policy espoused by anti migration warrior PSH as to how to address the skills shortage that would inevitably follow a cut to the ‘historic levels’ of migration that he champions.
Nothing on the required boost to vocational training.
Nothing on a ‘working nation’ style training wage scheme.
‘Conveniently’ he also was dodges tackling the real drivers of the housing shortage;
AND as for the structural labour shortages that WILL happen – over and above the ones already manifesting themselves NOW on account of the mass retirement event over the next 20 years as the rest of the boomers and a few older Gen-X leave the workforce but will not die on mass for a further 20-30 years? … Tumbleweeds from PSH. Funny that.
Am I allowed to call out PSH as an unreconstructed racist dog whistle without Sealion (arf arf) or Fubar or PP infarcting?
B. S. Fairman @ #123 Tuesday, May 21st, 2024 – 11:55 am
When I was younger I was fanatical about sports.
I’ve found as I’ve gotten older I just can’t get excited about some sports anymore. Sacrilege I know but swimming, basketball and tennis are amongst my biggest yawns now.
I think I’ve entered the angry old man yelling at the clouds stage.
As per your name – B. S.
Point to where the elite athlete hurt you.
Really?
WTF?
Over 900,000 people in two years BROUGHT IN by this FED labot gov.
Tens of thousands are not going despite visas expired ironically appealing by a labor stacked AAT etc.
Why would they as they know labor is weak on border control and change their policies often.
Last year labors incompetent education minister e’clair was giving speeches about bringing in more international students has since done a uturn.
Soft caps by labor a stunt they want more international students in.
davidwh @ #120 Tuesday, May 21st, 2024 – 11:51 am
It used to be the rule that athletes at the AIS had to either studying or working. Planning for a life after their sporting career
More flowing sewage. State and Local Governments are the ones who run planning and development legislation and regulation which has caused the shortage of land and housing – everywhere. The TAFEs are funded and run by State Governments.
This is not a Federal Government created problem.
Aqualung says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2024 at 11:55 am
Apart from the millions of dollars donated, Roy Hill and Hancock Prospecting does run an extensive employment program for elite athletes. Smart arse.
Accepting (as Rudd did) ultimate responsibility in a Westminster government, I genuinely still don’t understand how people hold Rudd responsible for dodgy trades taking advantage of a government funding program. Or at least, the level to which people use this example to attempt to singularly discredit his government while not holding other PMs to the same account (eg something like the illegal Robodebt policy).
Is Whitlam responsible for asbestos deaths from houses built under the 1973 Housing Agreement?
Are Abbott and Turnbull responsible for construction deaths resulting from their “reduction in red tape”?
Is Howard ultimately responsible for Veteran suicides since the Iraq War?
Are Albo, Abbott, and Morrison responsible for deaths from prolonging fossil fuel use?
@Mostly Interested
Interesting take on the parallel to the Greens approach to the Brisbane election!
Badthinker….
So Rudd and his government were responsible for the fires and deaths – 5 were deaths were there?
I guess, by your logic, Rudd should have personally been on site to supervise these idiots.
Think back in the time of the Vietnam conflict over 500 young (many were conscripts) died because of the gung-ho, All-the-Way-with-LBJ stuff pumped out by the LNP government of the day.
I guess by your logic the PM and others in the Cabinet were personally responsible for these guys getting killed?
I see MM has beaten me to the same point Badthinker
Philip Seymour Hoffman
What a bizarre post.
No account taken of our reduced birth rate and the need to increase migration to compensate for it.
FUBAR
The SECV and ETSA have never been low cost generators, the old NSWEC knew this and knew it well. You pay about 30-40% more for the privilege of burning brown v black coal. More expensive to build, more expensive to maintain, more expensive to run. And this is playing out as we write this in the energy markets where brown coal is having issues competing against rooftop PV, wind and storage. What the talk back shrills say is one thing I can tell you that if I was to bet on a talk back shrill or a generators corporate development department I would bet on the latter.
,
For someone who has allegedly worn gold pips on your shoulder you should be able to research things a bit better or does it mean you are just good at following orders?
Robo debt was a killer.
Direct Liberal Fed Govt responsibility.
In the group of athletes that my daughter trains with, doing a double degree in Chemical Engineering and Chemistry, with 5 on water sessions in the morning at 5 am and 5 gym sessions in the afternoon evenings and working as a casual (OMG!!) swimming teacher and pool lifeguard, there is an Astrophysicist just returned from Post Grad at Oxford, a couple doing FIFO, one just back from Ohio State Uni (current age-based World Record holder), and the normal uni students doing hospitality work.
I really don’t see how or why these young people should be the butt of jokes about not getting dirty hands etc.
And yes, Gina’s generously donated money helps pay for equipment, coaching and travel required to be world class athletes.
FUBAR – I generally agree that the housing crisis is not exclusively a federal issue.
Planning is generally a state government issue with local government playing a supporting role. That would affect the supply side of things.
The population growth/immigration side of things is the only area that federal government really has direct control over. And even then it can only control the entry of non-citizens; there is always a potential issue around expats moving home at a greater people leaving which is something that can’t be controlled. Population growth is the demand side of things.
There are a few other areas where the feds have some control (standards of imported building products for example) but these are on the fringes.
Because they didn’t do an adequate risk analysis or put in place measures to manage risks identified. All employers are required, by law, to do this. Why shouldn’t an ALP Government – created, bought and paid for by the Unions who hold themselves out as being the Gold Standard in safety for employees, be held to a standard that they require of others?
FUBAR
As you well know, the SEC in Victoria has long gone as the sole provider of power in that State. You have neatly avoided any comment about the cost/effectiveness/downsides of open cut mining for the provision of brown coal. The days of the great polluting power stations in the Valley are gone for ever. In my life time the great Hazelwood power station with its stately chimneys billowing filthy smoke have come and gone. Yallourn will all but be gone soon and Loy Yang a bit further down the track.
Anyway, the good news for the Liberals is the local Federal seat is held by them so they can now tell the locals where the new nuclear power station is going to be….Rather him than a Labor guy/gal
The populism that Dutton is deploying wont be swayed by coherent, well thought out, evidence based arguments. So I wouldn’t expect that to hold true here either.
Andrew_Earlwood
I’m not anti-immigration at all.
Immigration is essential to Australia. Particularly for the points you just mentioned re skills shortages. Not to mention cultural diversity aspects which make Australia a much better country overall.
Reducing immigration to a sensible, sustainable level is not akin to being anti-immigration.
The problem for you and your ilk is you seem incapable of recognising that perfectly reasonable Australians have a problem with how our completely bonkers migration program (only surpassed by Canada’s) has completely stuffed the economy for most Australians, in particular housing.
You can’t seem to fathom this in your rusted on Labor mind and therefore resort to childish ‘racist’ name calling.
Regarding your point about skills shortages I’ll say two things –
1. This is the line that successive governments and big business has been trotting out for the last 20 years to support completely above and beyond migration levels to prop up GDP with growth at any cost.
2. Skills shortages absolutely should be targeted with selective migration. The problem we have at the moment is most of our migration is made up of students. Targeting much needed skills makes a lot of sense, we just don’t do it. Instead we feed the corrupt education industry and property lobby with a flood of low-skilled migrants who need houses to live in.
Philip Seymour Hoffman
What a bizarre post.
No account taken of our reduced birth rate and the need to increase migration to compensate for it.
—
More notably, no account taken that our population is significantly higher and our economy significantly bigger.
Interestingly nobody has ever pulled Dutton up when he is talking about Gaza he keeps claiming that twelve hundred people were killed in the October 7th Attack where as Israel now says the total death total was 1,143.
Greg Rudd says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Silver Pips and re the Vic SEC you need to adjust your sarcasm meter.
B. S. Fairman says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2024 at 12:24 pm
That 57 makes all the difference.
Dead hostages don’t count?
Just catching up,on today’s Trump trial. When his defence put up their witness Bob Costello, he started acting up. Judge Merchan cleared the court room and the following transpired – Bove is the defence lawyer:
What happened inside the courtroom when the press was kicked out as Merchan admonished Costello:
Judge Merchan: “Sir, your conduct is contemptuous right now. I’m putting you on notice that your conduct is contemptuous. If you try to stare me down one more time, I will remove you from the stand. I will strike his entire testimony; do you understand me?”
MR. BOVE: “Yes, Judge. I understand.”
When Costello asked if he could say something, Merchan said: “No. No. This is not a conversation.”
As Trump is losing this case bigly- it was always a possibility he would try to blow up proceedings by doing something crackpot, or using a crackpot proxy. And provoking the Judge.
It appears Judge Merchan is ready for it