Eternal Putin

This week, Putin begins his fifth term as President of Russia. He has been in power for 24 years and is attempting to surpass Stalin’s record of over 30 years in office.

The presidential inauguration did not differ much from previous ones, except for the presence of veterans and their families who participated in the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The war will likely overshadow the upcoming period of Vladimir Putin’s rule. It will be his fifth term as the Russian President. Putin has been in power for 24 years, including a few months as Prime Minister in 1999. It is pretty close to the 20th-century record of one-power authority in Russia, which Joseph Stalin held for 31 years.

The period of Putin’s power of control includes 2008-2012, when he was Prime Minister, as he exchanged positions with Dmitry Medvedev for four years. Putin no longer has such restrictions today. He doesn’t have to pretend to take a backseat. The facade of a fragile democracy like Russia’s during the 1990s and 2000s is no longer significant. On May 7, Putin took an oath on a modified Constitution after the so-called referendum in 2020. The amendment eliminated term limits, allowing him to govern for life as “Eternal Putin.”

The elites have faith in Putin

On Tuesday, May 7, the weather in Moscow was unpleasant. There was sleet, and it was cold, especially for those who had to stand for many hours in the Kremlin courtyard, dressed in their light representative uniforms as part of the presidential regiment. Meanwhile, Putin’s entourage was gathered inside the warm Kremlin palace. However, many of the officials at various levels who were present may have felt chilling anxiety about their future. It is common knowledge that Putin has been re-elected. However, a new term usually results in some changes within the government. It includes a reshuffle in the administration, where the existing government resigns and a new one is sworn in. While Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is expected to retain his position, some changes may occur among ministers. Putin is granting the majority of the Russian power elite some relief for the next six years and providing confidence in minimal change.

It is unlikely that Russian policies will experience a notable shift in the near future, whether in terms of domestic economic policies or foreign policies. There is no indication that Putin will soon abandon his expansionist and aggressive political approach. This ongoing war will continue to impose substantial costs and burdens on the Russians and their economy. International isolation will remain. Russia will continue to be absorbed into China’s economic sphere. Furthermore, who knows if it might even be politically dependent on Beijing?

It’s unlikely that potential changes in the American political stage after the elections will have much effect on Russia if the country’s military remains in Ukraine. Today, it’s hard to envision a scenario where this presence ends. Despite the apparent crisis in Ukrainian defense, Putin has not achieved any of his strategic goals in Ukraine, and they are still far from being completed. After two years, the Russian power elite have adapted to the ongoing war.

The Western experts and media made a mistake in 2022 by relying on an “oligarchic mutiny” caused by Russia’s sudden separation from the Western world. They failed to understand the nature of the Russian power elite. It is not made up of numerous billionaires like Roman Abramovich, who reside in the Kensington area of London (“Londongrad”), or the French Riviera. Dmitry Medvedev and Nikolai Patrushev, Putin’s closest courtiers, are also not the sole representatives of the elite. While they are at the top of the power pyramid with others with similar mindsets, the Russian power elite comprises a broader group.

The individuals who make up the Kremlin elite are often bureaucrats in suits and uniforms. They are considered the most influential figures in their respective localities, such as Krasnodar or Kurgan. This group may comprise the local mayor, deputy governor, head of the forest service, prosecutor, general of a forgotten brigade relocated from Kamchatka to Bakhmut, or the director of the mine. If you add their families to the count, this social class consisting of millions is entirely dependent on Putin and the state he has established. Putin relies on them, and they create a “client system” that spans multiple generations. The younger generation of the power elite and their children are gaining more prominence now. Dmitry Patrushev, son of Nikolai Patrushev, is the Minister of Agriculture and a symbol of this trend. At every level of administration, individuals from privileged families in their 30s and 40s are being given increasingly essential positions. It reinforces their reliance on the Putin system.

Time for the empire

The elite, in its broadest sense, suffered losses due to the war and Putin’s policies. They can no longer enjoy luxuries like holidays in Saint-Tropez or shopping in Milan. Although some still found a way to travel to the West, many had to switch the locations of their yachts from the Mediterranean Sea to Dubai or Hong Kong. Alternatively, as a more affordable option, one could consider Turkish Antalya or Thai Phuket. Since the Russian elites tend to follow each other’s lead, it will be a relatively smooth transition for them to switch to other trendy destinations outside Europe and the US. This shift will leave “Londongrad” deserted. While some wealthy Russians, like Abramovich, have always been fascinated with the West and attempted to become part of the world’s exclusive elite, they may have a more difficult time accepting these changes. However, the once-alluring, awe-inspiring world has started to lose its charm for them. On the other hand, people like Patrushev and Medvedev developed a hatred towards the West and have cultivated it carefully and passionately.

The Russian elites have adapted to live within the conditions of war. Putin’s system closure has further cemented the elite’s monopoly on privileged participation for generations to come. Putin assured them that switching the economy to war mode, sanctions restriction, and missing many Western brands would not be a problem. The powerful elite have found new business partners in Middle Eastern countries, including China, India, and Turkey, as an alternative to their previous partners. They have also realized that intermediating in the trade of sanctioned goods is a very profitable business model. With Putin’s promising stabilization in sight, the elite knows they still have enough time to take full advantage of the current war situation.

-I would like to sincerely thank the citizens of Russia in all regions and the residents of our historic lands (…)- this kind of introduction made by Putin during the inaugural speech is only an announcement of further expansionist politics.

Who are the mentioned residents of the “historical lands”? These are the Russians or Russian-speaking people who live outside Russia, as recognized by Moscow. This approach resembles the one that led to the attack on Ukraine, and it may cause concern among countries such as Kazakhstan, Belarus, Transcaucasia, and the Baltic states. However, conformism from the Russian elite’s perspective means acceptance of the policy of expanding Russia’s territorial influence. Nostalgia for the Soviet Union is strong among senior bureaucrats and officers, while younger generations see opportunities in Putin’s world.

The truth is that officials gathered in the Kremlin know and believe that Putin wants to go down in history as a continuator of the imperial legacy of Peter I the Great, Catherine the Great, and Stalin.

– Russia will continue to form a multipolar world (…) – Putin said on May 7 during the inauguration speech.

This statement reflects one of Putin’s long-held ideas: to undermine the USA’s position as a superpower and return to a time when global power was distributed among multiple nations. The war in Ukraine and the dictates of peace conditions aim to fulfill Putin’s vision.

It’s essential to keep in mind that time is a factor when it comes to political leadership. Even with the possibility of extending Putin’s term until 2036 through constitutional modifications, there’s still the biological clock to consider. Putin is currently 72 years old, and his age will eventually impact his ability to govern. It’s worth remembering that Leonid Brezhnev, who was only slightly older than Putin is now, began to weaken and had more challenges to communicate as he aged. While Putin’s health care is at a high level, the inevitability of aging means that there will come a time when his age will start to affect his ability to lead.

In the world of the Kremlin, dominated by alpha males, wars and power struggles among those competing for the throne are likely to arise soon. It is probably the greatest fear of the Russian elite – the moment when Putin runs out of time to achieve his ambitions and, at the same time, the system built around one man fails to establish a mechanism for the transfer of power.

Michał Kacewicz/belsat.eu

Translated by PEV