May 14, 2024 - Russia's war in Ukraine

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought to reassure Ukrainians that Russia’s operations in the northern Kharkiv border area will not lead to defensive gaps elsewhere along the frontline.

“We understand how the enemy is acting, and we see the plan to draw our forces back,” Zelensky said in an address on Monday evening.

“Of course, we are not leaving the Donetsk areas without the necessary support and supplies, namely the Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk directions,” he added.

Many Ukrainians believe Russia’s real intentions in its Kharkiv push are to force Ukraine to redeploy troops defending key locations further south, including Chasiv Yar, which sits on high ground west of Bakhmut.

Russian soldiers have been making steady advances towards it in recent weeks and the capture of Chasiv Yar would being Russia closer to three key military towns – Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – in the Donetsk region.

While Russia’s desire to capture all of Donetsk is clear – it announced it had annexed the region back in 2022 – some analysts argue the Kharkiv operation might also be about the creation of a buffer zone along Russia’s border with Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War says reports of the destruction of several bridges across key waterways suggest Moscow is “prioritizing the creation of a ‘buffer zone’ over a deeper penetration into the region.”

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has made several references in the past to creating such a zone inside Ukraine, to better protect Russian towns like Belgorod from coming under Ukrainian attack.

Russian forces continue to make advances south into Ukrainian villages in the Kharkiv region after launching their surprise cross-border assault four days ago.  

One of the main Russian efforts appears targeted on Lyptsi, described by one Ukrainian military blogger as “a very important village” – due to its position on Ukraine’s second defensive line.

The DeepStateMap monitoring group indicates two further settlements in the direction of the village have been taken under full or partial Russian control, though Serhii Melnyk, Commander of the Kharkiv city defense forces, said an attempted advance on Lyptsi itself had been repelled.

Reports make clear that Russia continues to make heavy use of large glide bombs ahead of its ground operations. Glide bombs can carry hundreds of kilograms of explosives and are dropped from aircraft which – in the case of attacks on the Kharkiv border region – do not even need to enter Ukrainian airspace.

A Ukrainian National Guard Special Forces unit reported 20 such aerial attacks in one direction alone.

Meanwhile, a few dozen kilometers to the east, Vovchansk remains a Russian focus, though it appears Ukraine has still managed to prevent a full Russian assault on the town.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has appealed to European countries to do more to support Ukraine, saying he hoped they would provide Ukraine with "munition, artillery, tanks, and air defense, and especially Patriot [air defense systems.]"

Speaking in Stockholm on Tuesday, the German chancellor vowed support for Ukraine for as long as necessary.

Scholz said Germany's announcement in April that it would send a third Patriot system to Ukraine had not been an easy decision as Germany did not have many systems of its own. 

Some of Ukraine's allies have come under increasing pressure to provide Ukraine with air defense systems.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month showed his dissatisfaction over deliveries of Western military aid from key allies, saying air defense, in particular Patriot systems, were "what [Ukraine's] partners have and what should be working here in Ukraine now, to destroy Russian terrorist ambitions." 

Only the US, Germany and the Netherlands have supplied Patriot systems to Ukraine so far. Spain promised to send Patriot missiles but not a full battery.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that his country urgently needs more air defenses as it faces increased attacks from Russia in the east.

"Air defense (is) the biggest deficit for us. I think that the biggest problem is ... today we really need two Patriots for Kharkiv region because there are people under attack: civilians and warriors. Everybody. They are under Russian missiles," Zelensky told reporters ahead of his meeting with Blinken.

The Institute for the Study of War in Washington said last month that Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukraine have become much more effective in recent months, even though there was no dramatic increase in their size or frequency.

"Instead, Russian forces are exploiting the degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella caused by continued delays in Western security assistance and appear to be leveraging tactical adaptations stemming from several months of Russian efforts to test Ukrainian air defenses," the Washington-based group said in a report.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has concluded his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, after discussing "recent battlefield updates and the importance of newly arrived U.S. security assistance," according to US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.

"The two discussed recent battlefield updates and the importance of newly-arrived US security assistance to helping repel Russian attacks," Miller said in a read-out following the meeting. "They also discussed long-term security arrangements and ongoing work to ensure Ukraine can thrive economically. Secretary Blinken reiterated the United States’ enduring support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity and our commitment to Ukraine’s recovery."

Blinken's visit comes as Russia continues its new push into northeastern Ukraine after making several major advances there over the past week, marking Moscow’s most significant gains since Kyiv’s forces recaptured Kharkiv in late summer 2022.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the long-awaited US military assistance has started arriving in Ukraine, after months of delays caused by political haggling in the US Congress.

Blinken is the first of Biden administration official to visit Kyiv after the passage of the Ukraine funding, which Kyiv and its allies hope could be a turning point in the war.

The $61 billion package includes about $23 billion to replenish US weapons, stockpiles and facilities and nearly $14 billion to help Ukraine buy advanced weapons systems and other defense equipment. More than $11 billion will fund current US military operations in the wider region.

As he met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday, Blinken said that "the assistance was now on the way."

"Some of it already arrived, and more of it will be arriving, and that's going to make a real difference against the Russian aggression on the battlefield," he said. "We are determined, along with many partners of Ukraine, to make sure you succeed on the battlefield."

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has arrived in Kyiv at the time when Ukraine needs as much help as it can get. 

Russia has made significant gains on the battlefield in recent weeks, including on Ukraine’s northern border near Kharkiv, where it took control of several villages. Kharkiv is Ukraine's second biggest city and it is becoming more vulnerable to attacks as Russia inches closer to its edges.

In a rare and frank admission of how bad the picture is at the moment, Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrskyi said that the situation in the northern Kharkiv region has “significantly worsened” after Russia claimed to have captured four further villages as it expanded its surprise cross-border offensive.

Moscow has managed to take advantage of Ukraine’s ammunition shortages, pushing through multiple spots alongside the eastern Ukraine frontline as the US Congress dragged its feet for months on the $61 billion Ukraine aid package.

The assistance has been approved last month, but it will take months for the crucial weapons to be delivered where they are needed. Russia, meanwhile, continues to gain momentum. 

Blinken admitted as much ahead of his meeting with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying "We know this is a challenging time."

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday, marking the first visit of a Biden administration official to Ukraine following the long-delayed passage of US supplemental funding to the war-torn country, the State Department announced.

Coming amid Ukrainian setbacks on the battlefield, Blinken intends to send a “strong signal of reassurance to the Ukrainians,” the official said.

Blinken will also discuss “the other steps that we’re taking to provide long-term assurance and commitment on the security front to the Ukrainians, including our bilateral security agreement,” the official added.

During his fourth visit to Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion, Blinken is also scheduled to meet with civil society and private sector partners as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. US officials acknowledge that the slowdown in US support, due to congressional infighting, has exacerbated a challenging situation for Ukraine.

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Cinese leader Xi Jinping will welcome Vladimir Putin to China on Thursday for the Russian president’s second visit in less than a year – the latest sign of their growing alignment amid hardening global fault lines as conflict devastates Gaza and Ukraine.

Putin will arrive in China just over a week since entering a new term in office, extending his autocratic rule until 2030 – the result of an election without any true opposition.

His visit, set to take place May 16-17, according to Chinese state media, mirrors Xi’s own state visit to Moscow just over a year ago, where he marked the norm-shattering start of a new term as president – like Putin, after rewriting rules around how long leaders can serve.

Their meeting comes months ahead of the American presidential elections and as Washington faces mounting international backlash over its support for Israel’s war on Gaza. It’s set to provide a platform for the leaders to discuss how all this can advance their shared ambition to degrade and offer an alternative to American power.

The visit also comes as the two leaders operate within what observers say is a loose but growing coordination of interests between avowedly anti-American countries Iran and North Korea. Pyongyang – which has an economy almost entirely dependent of China – is believed by Western governments to be aiding Russia with war supplies, as is Tehran, which is being bolstered economically by Russia and China and is a powerful player in the conflict in the Middle East.

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