Taking Stock | Sensex closes 118 points lower, Nifty holds 22,200; BSE MidCap up 0.6%, Smallcap gains 1%

Sensex closes 118 points lower, Nifty holds 22,200; BSE MidCap up 0.6%, Smallcap gains 1%

Indian markets closed marginally lower on May 15, with Sensex dropping 118 points while Nifty held the 22,200 mark ahead of crucial US inflation data impacting the Fed's rate decisions. Meanwhile, broader markets BSE MidCap and Smallcap gained 0.6 percent and 1 percent higher.

Sensex closed at 72,987 points, down 0.08%, and Nifty at 22,200 points. Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank Index led gainers, up 1.4%, followed by Nifty Realty and oil & gas, both up 1%. Nifty FMCG Index was the top loser, down 1%, with Nifty auto down 0.5%. Nifty Bank and Nifty Private Bank indices slipped 0.3% each.

US producer price index for April surpassed expectations, tempering rate cut speculations even though initial market reaction was cautious, given downward revision in March wholesale prices. All eyes are now on US CPI inflation numbers for April scheduled to be released later on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that inflation's slowdown is slower than anticipated, prompting the Fed to maintain its current stance for an extended period. Speaking at the Foreign Bankers’ Association meeting in Amsterdam, he acknowledged the unexpected inflation readings, signaling patience and persistence with current policy measures. Powell anticipates inflation to ease gradually but doesn't foresee rate hikes in the near term.

Outlook for May 16

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services

The market witnessed a sideways movement throughout the day as the emotions of investors were impacted by the election-led jitters. FIIs continued to remain in the selling mode; however, domestic investors were largely concentrated on stock-specific picks. The positive results from the capital goods sector and robust growth outlook gained investors’ attention and led the segment to outperform. A drop in US 10-yr yield ahead of the release of sensitive CPI data from the US will be watched carefully by the market to gain insights on rates.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities

Index	Prices	Change	Change%
Sensex	73,663.72	676.69	+0.93%
Nifty 50	22,403.85	203.30	+0.92%
Nifty Bank	47,977.05	289.60	+0.61%

Nifty 50 22,403.85 203.30 (0.92%)

Thu, May 16, 2024

• 1D
• 5D
• 1M
• 3M
• 6M
• 1Y
• 2Y

Biggest Gainer	Prices	Change	Change%
M&M	2,371.75	69.45	+3.02%

Biggest Loser	Prices	Change	Change%
Maruti Suzuki	12,497.65	-269.65	-2.11%

Best Sector	Prices	Change	Change%
Nifty IT	33668.40	551.00	+1.66%

Worst Sector	Prices	Change	Change%
Nifty PSU Bank	7097.55	-63.20	-0.88%

Markets languished throughout the session and slipped into the red towards close on profit taking in banking, auto and FMCG stocks, whereas gains in realty, oil & gas and power capped the downside. With rate cuts from the US Fed getting delayed further and FII selling worsening the sentiment, investors are getting nervous and taking a cautious stance amid growing uncertainty.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Following three days of rebound, the markets took a pause and closed nearly unchanged. Initially, there was an uptick, but pressure from certain heavyweights pushed the Nifty lower, leading to a range-bound movement until the end of the session. Meanwhile, a mixed trend prevailed on the sectoral front, with energy and realty sectors witnessing gains while FMCG and auto sectors ended in the red. However, the broader indices managed to post modest gains ranging from 0.5% to 1%.

We maintain our cautious outlook on the Nifty index, highlighting the resistance in the 22,300-22,400 zone, and suggest continuing with a stock-specific trading approach. In addition to domestic factors, it's advisable to closely monitor the US markets for cues.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities

The Nifty largely traded sideways as the index failed to generate any significant directional breakout. Bulls struggled to push Nifty above the 22,250 mark on a closing basis. Sentiment remains subdued as long as it stays below 22,250. A decisive move beyond this level could potentially propel Nifty towards 22,600 and beyond. Conversely, a failure to sustain above 22,200 might invite selling pressure.

Jaykrishna Gandhi, analysts at Emkay Global Financial Services on markets

A volatile week for Nifty with index touching 21,850, levels start of the week with all eyes on the last phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Last two days saw a bounce back with metals, PSUs and smallcaps outperforming the frontline index. Stock specific moves observed on MSCI index rebalance. A few March quarter earnings callout - ABB & Siemens surged on huge PAT beat, VBL rallies as company gears up for peak season, B0B falls on higher slippages and credit costs, TaMo shares plunge with peak performance now behind.

Global markets maintain momentum ahead of the US April CPI report - to throw more light on Feds interest rate path going forward. FIIs continue to be on a net selling spree - with MTD net selling seen to the tune of Rs 33,540 crore. High volatility, elections uncertainty and optionally on Chinese markets recovery drives this bulk FII selling. DIIs have net bought Rs 26,500-crore MTD - not aggressive enough to counter the overall FII net outflows. On technicals, immediate resistance is at 22,400 levels and the next lower levels to be watched around 22,000 levels. India VIX has continues to spike further and has now climbed above 20 levels - highest since Sept 2022

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Today, the benchmark indices witnessed lackluster activity, the Nifty ended 8  points lower while the Sensex was down by 118  points. Among sectors, PSU Banks gained the most rallied over 1 percent whereas profit booking was seen in selective FMCG and Media stocks. Technically, after two days promising pullback rally the market consolidate near 50 day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 22,300/73,300 .

The intraday  market texture is non directional perhaps traders are waiting for either side breakout . For the bulls now, 50 day SMA or 22300/73300 would act as an immediate breakout level. Above which, the market could rally up to 22,375-22,400/73,500-73,600. On the flip side, below 22,150/72,800 the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below the same, it could retest the level of 22,050-22,000/72,500-72,300.

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