Ukraine’s new pressure campaign at a possible turning point

With help from Lara Seligman

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Prominent Ukrainian lawmakers don’t believe the Biden administration is making enough progress on securing missile defenses for their country — and feel like the U.S. is kneecapping their military during a crucial moment in the war.

During a roundtable at the German Marshall Fund think tank in DuPont Circle on Tuesday, OLEKSANDRA USTINOVA sat alongside five fellow Ukrainian lawmakers and expressed frustration with the U.S. for not sending more Patriot air defense systems to their country.

“How can we explain to our people that they’ll be backed up when we have nothing?” said Ustinova, the head of Ukraine’s special parliamentary commission on arms and munitions, noting that there are more than 100 Patriots in friendly countries. The frontlines and many cities where civilians live aren’t covered by air defense, she added.

Washington has provided Ukraine with several batteries and munitions for the Patriot systems and is looking to send an additional battery along with radars. And national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN has said he talks every day with at least one ally about getting more Patriot batteries into Ukraine, an issue that has been top of mind for the White House in recent weeks.

“We are intensely focused on Patriots and other forms of air defense,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told reporters in Kyiv today, saying the U.S. is “actively and urgently” working on the matter.

Following pleas from Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, Germany agreed to send a Patriot system to Ukraine in mid-April. Now, the U.S. is trying to negotiate with Switzerland to sell their Patriots to Ukraine, Ustinova said. The National Security Council didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The exasperation from Ukrainian lawmakers was palpable. Despite the U.S. passing the delayed military assistance package for Kyiv, Russian troops are pushing into the northeastern Kharkiv region, causing Ukrainian forces to fall back and stoking concern among U.S. officials that Russia is changing the trajectory of the war. Today, Zelenskyy postponed his upcoming international trips because of the fighting.

If Ukraine doesn’t get more air defenses soon — and permission to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russian territory — there’s “a huge possibility to lose large cities and the region,” Ustinova said.

She provided a stark warning to Western allies: “Kharkiv is going to turn into Mariupol,” referring to the Ukrainian city that was demolished in the early months of the war.

Today, the Ukrainian delegation plans to hold 11 meetings on Capitol Hill to pressure the Biden administration. In the past, when the White House “was reluctant to do something, we go to the Senate and Congress … and it gets support,” said DAVID ARAHAMIYA, another Ukrainian lawmaker focused on national security issues.

There are signs that the U.S. is listening. Today, while he announced $2 billion in foreign military financing for Kyiv, Blinken suggested that the U.S. might not stop Ukraine if it decides to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike Russia.

“We have not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately Ukraine needs to make decisions for itself on how it conducts this war,” he said.  ”We will continue to back Ukraine with the equipment it needs to win.”

The Inbox

SLOVAK ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT: Slovakia’s Prime Minister ROBERT FICO is fighting for his life after he was shot multiple times following a government meeting today, our own KETRIN JOCHECOVÁ and DOUGLAS BUSVINE.

Fico was flown to a hospital and is in life-threatening condition, according to his official Facebook account. “The next few hours will decide,” it read.

The White House also called the shooting an assassination attempt in a statement, with President JOE BIDEN condemning “this horrific act of violence.”

AID PIER ALMOST THERE: Components of the U.S. military-built pier, as well as military vessels involved in the project, began moving from the Port of Ashdod in Israel toward Gaza today, a Defense Department official told our own LARA SELIGMAN. There, the temporary port will be anchored to the beach to start delivering humanitarian aid to the enclave.

The project and U.S. military personnel involved in the construction have been waiting for the go-ahead for the last few weeks, after bad weather forced them to move the temporary pier to Ashdod.

Meanwhile, European Union chief JOSEP BORRELL called on Israel today to end its military offensive into the southern city of Rafah in Gaza — warning that if it continues, “it would inevitably put a heavy strain on the EU’s relationship with Israel.”

“This operation is further disrupting the distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza and is leading to more internal displacement, exposure to famine and human suffering,” Borrell said in a statement.

Some 450,000 people have fled Rafah since May 6, USAID Director DAN DIECKHAUS said today.

IRANIAN ARMS PLOT: Jordan foiled a plot by Iranian-backed militias to smuggle weapons into the country to help those who oppose the ruling monarchy carry out acts of sabotage, Reuters’ SAMIA NAKHOUL and SULEIMAN AL-KHALIDI report.

Militias in Syria sent the weapons to a cell of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, which has links to Hamas, two Jordanians familiar with the matter told the outlet. The cache was seized in March when members of the cell were arrested.

The aim was to destabilize Jordan, “a country that could become a regional flashpoint in the Gaza crisis” since it hosts an American military base and borders Israel, Syria and Iraq — the latter two of which are home to Iranian-backed militias, the outlet reports.

ANOTHER RESIGNATION: A Jewish-American political appointee resigned from the Biden administration in protest of the war in Gaza today, accusing the U.S. of not using its leverage over Israel to stop the war in Gaza.

In a resignation letter obtained by NatSec Daily, LILY GREENBERG CALL — who worked as a special assistant to the chief of staff in the Interior Department for just over a year — said Biden “has the power to call for a lasting ceasefire, to stop sending weapons to Israel, and to condition aid,” but instead had “enabled and legitimized Israel’s actions.”

In her resignation, she references the “Nakba Day,” a term used to mark the anniversary of the flight and expulsion of an estimated 700,000 Palestinians before and during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, which followed Israel’s establishment. She’s the sixth person to publicly resign from the Biden administration so far citing concerns over Biden’s Israel policy.

In 2022, Call wrote an op-ed in Teen Vogue about how she cut ties with AIPAC’s affiliate at UC Berkeley after serving as the group’s president, citing the lobbying group’s “willingness to prioritize unconditional support for the Israeli government over all else.” She’s also a member of the progressive advocacy group IfNotNow as of March, which calls for a ceasefire in Gaza.

PUTIN’S VIRTUE SIGNALING: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN set the agenda for his meeting with Chinese leader XI JINPING tomorrow: Moscow supports Beijing’s plan for resolving the war in Ukraine.

In an interview with China’s Xinhua news agency published today, Putin praised his counterpart’s commitment to a “just, multipolar world order,” saying that “we are positive in our assessment of China’s approach to solving the Ukrainian crisis.”

Last year, Beijing issued a 12-point statement outlining general principles for ending the war — including “abandoning the Cold War mentality” and resuming peace talks — which U.S. and EU officials have dismissed as an attempt to distract from its pro-Russia stance. Xi recently expanded on his principles for achieving peace in talks with German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ.

There are no signs that Zelenskyy will negotiate while Russian troops push further into Ukrainian territory. But that doesn’t stop Putin from virtue signaling.

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Keystrokes

ROADMAP FOR AI: Senators finally unveiled their “roadmap” today for addressing artificial intelligence issues that Congress could take up this term, our own URSULA PERANO reports.

The long-awaited plan, unveiled by a bipartisan group of senators endorsed by Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, outlines top priorities including boosting funding for AI innovation, tackling nationwide standards for AI safety and fairness, using AI to strengthen national security, and combating so-called “deepfakes” being used in elections.

Those goals would come at a price. The report says the eventual goal would be to spend “at least $32 billion per year for (non-defense) AI innovation,” as recommended by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence in a 2021 report. But the senators emphasized that would be over a number of years.

Read: U.K. issues new security framework for AI models (for Pros!) by our own TOM BRISTOW

NAKASONE DISHES: Gen. PAUL NAKASONE thinks the U.S. government needs to innovate faster — and he’s going to college to help make it happen, he explains in an interview with our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!).

While discussing his new role as the founding director of Vanderbilt’s Institute for National Defense and Global Security, Nakasone recounted an example of how much more difficult his old job got during his roughly six years atop U.S. Cyber Command and the NSA: The NSA Operations Center called him in the dead of night four times during his first month in the post, he said, and 11 times in one of his last months on the job, January of 2024.

“That gives you kind of the essence of how things are changing in terms of the speed and the world in which we’re operating,” Nakasone said.

The Complex

CHINESE DRONE CARRIER? Researchers believe China has built the world’s first dedicated drone carrier, providing details of the mysterious craft gathered from satellite imagery.

“The world knows about China’s first three carriers; the largest and most capable, the Type-003 Fujian, is currently undergoing sea trials. This new carrier is very different,” Naval News’ H I SUTTON writes, citing research gathered with Mitchell Institute’s J. MICHAEL DAHM. “We are confident that this ship is the world’s first dedicated fixed-wing drone carrier.”

Experts also told Business Insider’s THIBAULT SPIRLET that it would make sense for China to build such a carrier and shows how seriously Beijing is taking its military drone program, which has caused concerns in Congress as the U.S. tries to build up its own drone inventory.

Important read: Last night, there was some confusion about Biden greenlighting the potential sale of more than $1 billion in arms and ammunition to Israel. Our own JOE GOULD clears it up.

Read: Pentagon faces concerns over Boeing-Spirit merger on industrial base (for Pros!) by our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and LEE HUDSON

On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DRONES TO UKRAINE: A bipartisan group of lawmakers urged the State Department to ramp up the number of small drones the U.S. provides to Ukraine for its war efforts.

In a letter to Blinken sent Tuesday, Rep. RICH McCORMICK (R-Ga.) and seven other lawmakers said the administration should use funding from the recently-passed Ukraine supplemental for the drones, as Ukrainian officials have requested thousands of American-made drones.

Supplying the drones would help Ukraine’s efforts on the frontlines as well as loosen “China’s grip on the global drone industry while proving the effectiveness of U.S. and allied systems,” the lawmakers write.

Read: House Dems confident of few defections as Israel weapons vote draws closer by our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA

Broadsides

NICARAGUA SANCTIONS: The U.S. unveiled hefty sanctions on Nicaragua’s Ortega-Murillo regime for its repression of civilians and exploitation of vulnerable migrants, NSC spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON said in a statement today.

The actions include: A joint policy from Treasury, State and Homeland Security to travel companies about the smuggling networks; Treasury sanctions against a Russian military training center that supports the nation’s police and two gold companies; and State visa restrictions on more than 250 members of the Nicaraguan government and their family members.

HOLD THE APPLAUSE? Blinken’s rendition of “Rockin’ in the Free World” at a Ukrainian bar yesterday was applauded by many Ukrainians as a strong showing of U.S. partnership — and raised eyebrows among others.

“One word is enough to describe US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s evening in Kyiv yesterday: inappropriate,” SVITLANA MATVIYENKO, head of the Agency for Legislative Initiatives NGO, told Agence France-Presse.

From what NatSec Daily has heard, the reviews were mixed. Some Ukrainians saw it as a good sign that a SecState can relax in a warzone and jam out, while others viewed the concert as a tone-deaf performance.

“Somebody should work better on the PR issue of high-level guys coming from the United States,” VOLODYMYR OMELYAN, Ukraine’s former infrastructure minister, told NatSec Daily. For what it’s worth, Omelyan viewed Blinken’s gesture “very positively.”

CHINA’S EYE ON TAIWAN: China has become more provocative toward Taiwan in recent weeks, sailing and flying closer to the island nation than it previously has and staging mock attacks on foreign vessels, Reuters’ YIMOU LEE reports.

While the actions have ramped up since late April, they were particularly apparent Tuesday evening. Fifteen Chinese planes entered Taiwan’s air defense zone and carried out “joint combat readiness patrols” in conjunction with warships. Some of the planes simulated attacks on vessels entering the southern Taiwan Strait or the Bashi Channel — which separates Taiwan from the Philippines, a senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters.

The provocations come ahead of the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, LAI CHING-TE, on Monday, an election Beijing strongly opposed. China considers the sovereign nation, which is two dozen miles off its coast, as part of its own territory.

Transitions

— Irish Lieutenant General SEÁN CLANCY was elected to head the European Union Military Committee. He replaces Austria’s General ROBERT BRIEGER.

— LAWRENCE WONG was sworn in as Singapore’s fourth prime minister today.

— USAID Deputy Assistant Administrator ANKA LEE is joining DOD as deputy assistant secretary for East Asia.

— Northrop Grumman announced that MARK CAYLOR, corporate vice president and president of Mission Systems, is retiring on July 26, and DAVE KEFFER, corporate vice president and chief financial officer, is retiring on Feb. 21. KENNETH CREWS, vice president of business management and chief financial officer for the Space Systems sector, will succeed Keffer on Oct. 1. ROSHAN ROEDER, corporate vice president and president of Defense Systems, will succeed Caylor. BEN DAVIES, the corporate vice president and president of the Defense Systems sector, will succeed Roeder.

What to Read

— VICTOR JACK, POLITICO: How Turkey became Putin’s ‘pit stop’ for selling camouflaged fuel to the EU

— Sen. ROGER WICKER, Fox News: North Korea’s menacing nuclear threat is too dangerous to ignore. U.S. must lead before time runs out

— DAVID MONTGOMERY, The Nation: Whatever happened to reversing Trump’s Cuba policies?

Tomorrow Today

— Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: No substitute for victory: winning the competition with China with former Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wisc.)

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:15 a.m.: The future of North Korea policy

— Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: Connecting the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific: Northeast Asia’s growing cooperation with NATO

— Emergency Management and Technology Subcommittee and Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Unmanned aerial systems: an examination of the use of drones in emergency response

— Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Preserving and Strengthening Democracy in Latin America with Army Gen. LAURA RICHARDSON, commander of the U.S. Southern Command

— Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: One year in: Defense Innovation Unit 3.0 and the path forward with DIU Director DOUGLAS BECK

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10:30 a.m.: Modernization and management: building a department to address 21st century challenges

— Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: Why reinvigorating U.S. development assistance is essential to America’s national interests

— House Homeland Security Oversight, Investigations and Accountability Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Security risk: the unprecedented surge in Chinese illegal immigration

— Government Executive Media Group, 2 p.m.: The role of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance in modern conflict, how the Air Force is training ISR operators, and how emerging tech is improving operations

— Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2 p.m.: Closing the skies, liberating Ukraine

— American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 3 p.m.: No invasion necessary: how China can employ a coercion-based strategy to take Taiwan without a war

Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who kneecaps us in every way she can.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who provides our self-defense against Rosie.