NEWSLETTER
Pete Crow-Armstrong put on a show last night, which I mean in the most literal sense. It was more like a performance than a baseball game. Bases-loaded HBP while showing bunt? OK, sure. Running easily to first on a dropped third strike (stupid catcher barely tagged him) and playing it up like you’re totally safe? Yes. Gliding all around the outfield with ease? Of course. Stolen base? Check. Driving in two? Nice.
And, obviously, there were the two REALLY fun plays.
Let me start with the bunt, because, although bunting generally gets my hackles up, there are TYPES of bunts and SITUATIONS for bunts and PLAYERS who do it where I really like a good bunt. Two outs, runner on third, infield playing back, second baseman in motion to cover first if necessary because you’ve threatened bunt before? With great speed and bat control? Yes, yes, yes. Bunt in that situation, especially if you can do this:
That is just an outrageously good bunt. Pete Crow-Armstrong sent that thing exactly where he wanted to, and it was exactly where no one was going to have a play on it. Could you replicate that 10 times out of 10 if you tried? Probably not. But the idea was sound, and in this instance, the execution was picture perfect. Heck, with his speed, I don’t know that the bunt even had to be perfect to turn into a hit.
Overall, I really like the idea of PCA continuing to threaten to bunt (and dropping it down sometimes). It’s not only going to get him some hits, but it’s going to bring the infield in a step or two and buy him a little more space for traditional hits.
As for the speed, PCA showed it off when he turned an obvious double into a not-even-close triple. How do you do that? Well, aggressiveness for one. But having the literal fastest home to third time in MLB this year will help:
There are almost no players who are thinking triple out of the box on a ball to the left center gap. The play is on that side, there’s less distance for the throws to cover, and the tag at third requires no turn. But Pete Crow-Armstrong knew right out of the box that he had a chance for third. I love that.
Increasingly, you’re seeing Craig Counsell and the Cubs come to terms with the fact that it’s pretty hard to sit PCA. It’s undoubtedly tricky because you have “starters” locked into left field, center field, right field, and first base (where Cody Bellinger could otherwise move), and then you’ve also got the DH spot that you kind of want to reserve for half days off, Mike Tauchman, and Christopher Morel. There is no daily spot for PCA, at least not if we’re calling everyone else an everyday player. But, like I said, if PCA keeps doing what he’s been doing, it’s simply hard to turn away the impact he has.
To that end, Michael made the very correct point on Twitter that, if PCA were playing a full complement of games and hitting to a 103 wRC+, he would be 4+ win player, and I’ll take it further and say it’s probably more like 5+. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s baserunning is excellent and is potentially going to yield big value as he gets more experience with big league pitchers, catchers, and defenders. Moreover, his defense in center field is truly top-of-the-scale stuff.
Is a 103 wRC+ where he’s going to stick, though? My gut says no … because I think he probably TOPS it when he becomes a regular!
Consider that this is still a 22-year-old with limited Triple-A experience, who is trying to develop at the big league level with intermittent playing time. And not only is he hitting at a slightly above-league-average clip, the numbers behind the numbers are really starting to look great, too. He is walking a bit more. He is striking out less than league average. He’s got good swing rates in and out of the zone, good contact rates in the zone, a manageable swinging strike rate, a very good CSW against him, and so on and so forth.
His wOBA (.313) is a touch higher than his xwOBA (.290) right now, but I actually think that xwOBA is about to climb as the swing decisions bear more and more fruit. More importantly, that’s going to help the actual wOBA and production. Also, I do not believe a .308 BABIP is his true-talent number. Too many line drives and too much speed. Add 30 points.
For now, I think the Cubs are going to have to continue to find ways to keep PCA involved, while awaiting the inevitable next injury. If he’s not playing at least every other day or if he really starts to struggle, then you do start to wonder about player development and long-term needs (i.e., maybe that’s when he would go back to Iowa). But until then, the guy has to stick around and has to play. He’s helping a competitive team win.
And he’s really fun:
