WI: The huguenot colony in Brazil - France Antarctique - survived, expanded and eventually colonize the Center-South of Brazil?

Rubrum · May 14, 2024

Hello, everyone! This is my first time posting practically anything in this site, so I hope I'm not breaking any rule. I think it's important to warn that english isnt my first language, so expect some misspellings and grammatical mistakes, but I'll try to avoid these as much as possible.
The title says it all, but, for some context: in 1555, Villeigaignon, a French naval officer, took a island in the Guanabara Bay, in front of present day Rio-de-Janeiro, and later built a fort named Coligny and a settlement in the mainland named Henriville. Unchallenged by the Portuguese, Villegaignon endeavoured to expand the colony by calling for more colonists in 1556, bringing Huguenots/Calvinists in 1557, but, due to religious conflicts, the Calvinists were banished from the Coligny island still in 1557 (event that, in IMO, condemned the entire colonial effort). After that, in 1560, the Portuguese sent Mem de Sá to expel the French, imposing a final defeat on the French forces in January 1567.
Now, there is some interesting parts of the wikipedia's article of France Antarctique, such as 'He [Villegaignon] sent one of his ships, the Grande Roberge, to Honfleur, entrusted with letters to King Henry II, Gaspard de Coligny, and according to some accounts, the Protestant leader John Calvin'. 300 colonists more or less, including 5 young women to be wed, 10 boys to be trained as translators, as well as 14 Calvinists were sent by Calvin himself.
With all of this, could Antarctique survive and become, let's say, a regional power in South America? Maybe rivalizing with Argentina, a Dutch colony in the Northeast and other luso-brazilian rump states (once these colonies achieve independence)? Taking the rivers into account, the country would probably be composed by the brazilian states in the Center-South (Centro-Sul) region, or everything down of Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo.

Its also good to remember that there were around 2,000,000 Huguenots in France around 1572, their diaspora being famous for their skilled craftsmanship and innovation. Maybe something like the US, at least socially, could be born from this? Slavery is almost guaranteed to happen, but I dont think a multiracial society would be born from this, so in the end we could simply get a south american southern US. The population is whats make me interested in this: 2 million potential settlers. Now, I know that its not like every single French huguenot will migrate to Antarctique, but the potential is there: the Thirteen Colonies and Australia were penal colonies (not sure on the first one) and there were some efforts from France to settle the lands of New France, though they were in vain. Here, however, the Huguenots could create a society from the other side of the Atlantic the way they intended (despite having to obey the Catholic French depending of the situation), the Puritans being the best analogy I can think of.

Anyway, that's all. What do you guys think?

TheLobby · May 15, 2024

I don't think this Huguenot colony can expand (assuming that the type of settlement you want is the North American Homestead Act model). If the Huguenots manage to survive malaria (very difficult since Rio de Janeiro is a tropical zone), they would expand then into the infertile soil of the Cerrado and Mato Grosso (until the introduction of GMOs in the 90s). They might have more success moving further south, into the River Plate basin, but even here, if France doesn't conquer Bolivia's mines, the colony would stagnate economically and won't be able to expand either.

ramones1986 · May 15, 2024

The principal PoD is too late to be plausible, in addition the (perceived) lack of competence of France's part to explore the Americas.

TheKutKu · May 15, 2024

The Huguenot part of the colony, if not the whole thing, cannot survive the french wars of religion.

holycookie · May 15, 2024

Rubrum said:
Hello, everyone!

Hi, I recommend reading @Kurd Gossemer ´s TL and this thread,https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...he-new-world-was-discovered-much-later.549570, which has a good discussion about France and Brazil.

Rubrum said:
in 1555, Villeigaignon, a French naval officer,

The colonization of the New World/Brazil was pushed by the naval and commercial elite of France. With the Atlantic Admiralty (which was located in the city of Rouen) and the merchants/nobility of the city as a whole pushed this colonization of that region. This is due in part to the dispute between the Atlantic navy and the Mediterranean navy. The Atlantic navy was very decentralized and this would provide the funds needed to reform and truly centralize that navy. France never accepted the Treaty of Tordesillas ( with its king asking to see Adam's will that would exclude France from the division of America),

The idea of colonizing this region comes primarily from Nicolas Durand de Villegaignon, born in Provins in 1510, gentleman and soldier, knight of Malta and vice-admiral of Brittany, whose classmate was Calvin at the University of Orleans. In 1553, he pleaded with Gaspard de Chatillon-Coligny, admiral of France, for a project to colonize Brazil. The latter quickly understood the political interest of such a colonial expansion that would consist in dealing a blow to Iberian hegemony in America, which easily convinced Henry II: “A young and strong France would emerge overseas" .

Rubrum said:
With all of this, could Antarctique survive and become, let's say, a regional power in South America?

This will depend entirely on whether the colony survives its initial state of growth and fortification (the first 50 years).

Rubrum said:
Maybe rivalizing with Argentina, a Dutch colony in the Northeast and other luso-brazilian rump states

People tend to imagine a Dutch northeast, but that is a region that they would never be able to consolidate. If the Dutch were Catholic this would be possible, complicated by the ban on black people and mixed people in the government when compared to the Portuguese government, but viable. In relation to the French colony, If it survives the state of consolidation the problem is less whether it is competitive and more how much the colony will expand. With the colony being able to swallow both the Portuguese colony in Brazil and the Spanish colony in the Plata region if the Iberian powers are not careful.

Rubrum said:
Its also good to remember that there were around 2,000,000 Huguenots in France around 1572

Firstly, the colony was not exclusively Huguenot, the colony was multi-religious since its creation. A curious thing was that while the Catholic French colonists mixed with the natives and had mixed children, the Protestants (Calvinists and Lutherans) vehemently refused to have relations with the natives. With this being a point of tension between these two groups in the colony. Another point of tension was the "governor's" attempt to prohibit pre-meritorious sex between Catholic colonists and Indians. So while theoretically, the largest mass of immigrants will initially be Huguenots, when gold is discovered they will likely become a large minority (perhaps somewhere around 20% to 30% of the population)

Rubrum said:
, their diaspora being famous for their skilled craftsmanship and innovation.

and warfare. As a whole, I would say that the Huguenots will disproportionately be one of the richest groups in the colony. Now in relation to the heart of the Huguenots in the colony, I would say that after the discovery of gold, greater attention from the metropolis, and Catholic migration they would migrate south towards more temperate lands. So this heart will probably be in the south of Brazil, where it is difficult to say but it will probably be in otl Rio Grande do Sul/Santa Catarina. It's far enough away that the central government of the colony and the metropolis don't care what they're doing. The lands do not have cash crops and mineral wealth such as gold and diamonds (at least not in an interesting volume). What the land has is fields for cattle production, a pleasant climate, and fertile land for family agricultural production. Things that are interesting for religious dissident groups. In addition to a means of expansion if they want through the advance towards the Spanish colony to the south.

Rubrum said:
Maybe something like the US, at least socially, could be born from this?

What do you mean by social? because there is a difference in French and English customs and cultures even with Norman colonization. The relationship to color and indifference to Indians was similar between the Huguenots and Americans. If we compare the Huguenots and the Pilgrims we have cultural and theological differences, but the biggest factor in my opinion is martial tradition. The Huguenots were much more aggressive and militarily active than the Pilgrims. Theologically speaking (simplified of course) the Huguenots leaned towards a more Presbyterian structure and emphasized the sovereignty of God, while the Pilgrims prioritized congregational autonomy and individual conscience in their interpretation of scripture.

Rubrum said:
Slavery is almost guaranteed to happen

Yes, but what they will be used for will depend on whether or not the Northeast is conquered. If this happens they will initially be used in cash crops and then gold, now if the northeast is not conquered they will be used in mining.

Rubrum said:
but I dont think a multiracial society would be born from this,

This depends on the size of the colony. But with the size you said, it will be an absolute white majority

Rubrum said:
so in the end we could simply get a south american southern US.

theoretically yes, they have the only good-quality coal mines in the region, the land is fertile, and the culture is industrial enough. It would be a more militarized USA, perhaps a good way to get an idea would be to compare it to other countries in Europe. I don't think it will be as militaristic as Prussia. So something between France and Prussia in relation to how militarized it would be.

Rubrum · May 15, 2024

TheLobby said:
-snip

I don't think a Homestead Act style colonization would be practical right now, mainly in this period where the colony is still forming. I do agree with the second part though, the Cerrado is pretty infertile, so maybe, instead of claiming the entire Mato Grosso as the Portuguese did in the 17th century (the bandeirante Raposo Tavares explored the interior of Brazil and travelled from São Paulo to Gurupá, Pará, in northern Brazil), they would stop around the Goiás-Mato Grosso do Sul border and focus in colonizing Southern Brazil as you said, perhaps even settling Uruguay and the Argentine Mesopotamia in the process, like the Bandeirantes tried in the 1641 with the Battle of Mbororé.
About the economy, we would have to be really generous and optimistic here. The French could have won the Battle of Rio de Janeiro in 1558, having almost five times the force the Portuguese had, and in 1567 Estácio de Sá was actually killed in battle by an arrow to the eye, Godwinson style. If the Portuguese don't send more armies to try to expel the French from the Guanabara Bay, what is highly unlikely, the French colonists would be dependent on the Tamoios and Tupinámbas for quite a while to keep the Portuguese at bay. I don't know if this is possible, but methinks that the only way for the colony to become safe would be to conquer the Captaincies of Espírito Santo and São Vicente, which would be very difficult in itself, considering that figures like Mem de Sá and José de Anchieta would be in the region at the behest of the Portuguese Crown. If the colony does indeed defeat the Portuguese and secure an alliance with the Tamoyo Confederation, I believe they would need help from the Metropolis to do anything from now on. Now, with this territory, they would be able mine the gold, silver and diamonds from Minas Gerais, Goiás and Mato Grosso. There is also the sugar plantations (despite the potential being much smaller when compared to the Brazilian Northeast).

unprincipled peter · May 15, 2024

TheKutKu said:
The Huguenot part of the colony, if not the whole thing, cannot survive the french wars of religion.

Part of the OTL failure was due to Catholic/Huguenot inability to cooperate in the colony. The first order of business is to detail how the French manage to succeed in TTL. In all likelihood, the discord between C/H is still there, so if/when the French Wars of Religion break out, that discord breaks out into open conflict.

However, if success of colonization encourages Huguenot migration in the early years, it may moderate the WoR. The emphasis may be more push the Huguenot to migrate, over outright anihilation of them. Or, the Huguenot portion of the colony ends up victorious. I think it becomes a case of a war within a war. The European factions are not going to be able to influence directly the outcome of the initial war in the Brazilian theater. If the Brazilian Huguenots beat the Catholics, Brazil becomes a Huguenot colony, attracting more and more Huguenot, until there's too many for the homeland Catholics to dislodge. In Europe, the Huguenot managed to hold on to their own pockets of territory, until everyone were so exhausted, a lasting truce was made, during which the Catholics slowly nibbled away at Huguenot rights. Here, Brazil becomes a Huguenot stronghold (presuming they win the initial clash), and a destination for those fleeing persecution.

If the Catholic portion of the colony is initially victorious, then the Huguenot in Europe are boxed in, as they were OTL, and the colony is Catholic oriented.

Should the success of the colony derive from C/H cooperation, when the WoR break out, the colony may well say 'we're doing fine as we are, let them fight over there'. Doubtful, but it's a possibility.

holycookie · May 15, 2024

TheLobby said:
If the Huguenots manage to survive malaria

The viability problem is not malaria, to be honest, disease was not a problem in the colony. The problem was that the colony went into civil war (primarily due to the governor's mismanaging, which irritated and agitated all sides) and soon afterward the Portuguese invaded.

TheLobby said:
they would expand then into the infertile soil of the Cerrado and Mato Grosso

They are unlikely to expand in this direction, the region in this era was a desolate land and the reason Brazil conquered the region is due to the Bandeirantes. They would move south.

TheLobby said:
They might have more success moving further south, into the River Plate basin, but even here,

heading south is most likely for the Huguenots

TheLobby said:
if France doesn't conquer Bolivia's mines,

Don't you know much about this region of you? (I'm not being condescending, I'm just asking) The mines in Minas Gerais produced more gold than any region in the Americas. This is without counting diamonds and other products in the region. I would say that the discovery of gold solidified Brazil's power in the region, considering that the gold rush multiplied the colony's population by 12. From 300 thousand to 3.6 million in 100 years.

TheLobby said:
the colony would stagnate economically and won't be able to expand either.

You are confusing metropolis proft with viability and colonial expansion, two different things. A colony can, for example, be vibrant and economically dynamic without generating profits for the metropolis. Why the metropolis demands cash crops and mineral wealth. Colonists (who migrate with families and not adventurers) normally want fertile land. The USA is a good example of this, irrelevant in relation to the wealth of the metropolis (when compared to Brazil, Mexico and Peru), but with a much healthier internal economy.

holycookie · May 15, 2024

Rubrum said:
The French could have won the Battle of Rio de Janeiro in 1558

Well, having a mini-civil war didn't help, besides the beautiful timing of the Portuguese attack

Rubrum said:
If the Portuguese don't send more armies to try to expel the French from the Guanabara Bay,

Yes, it will depend on how much Portugal will want to spend. Because while it is dangerous to have a French colony in the region, it is not as if Brazil in that period was something of value to the Portuguese. It was the colonial rubbish of the Portuguese empire.

unprincipled peter said:
Part of the OTL failure was due to Catholic/Huguenot inability to cooperate in the colony.

A governor with more common sense would probably resolve the situation. The governor wanted to force the Huguenots to marry Indian women (which they didn't want). He also tried to prevent relationships between Catholics and natives who were not married. A governor who accommodates the demands of both groups would do the trick. Letting the Catholics fraternize with the Indians and the Huguenots doing their own thing should do the trick.

unprincipled peter said:
However, if success of colonization encourages Huguenot migration in the early years, it may moderate the WoR.

A clever proposal is to allow religious freedom in the colony and use this to push the Huguenots into the colony.

unprincipled peter · May 15, 2024

holycookie said:
A clever proposal is to allow religious freedom in the colony and use this to push the Huguenots into the colony.

I've dreamed up a few Huguenot colonization TL (I'm not a good enough writer to put them into print, so they remain inside my skull). My preferred region is Pennsylvania/New York, but that's irrelevant. A problem I always run into is this:

Say this initial Huguenot colony is successful, and this clever proposal works, with an ensuing migration. This colony, which I call Hugonia, for lack of imagination, will eventually create profit. Catholic France will look to tap into this wealth, or at bare minimum, prevent this wealth from reaching the French Huguenot regions. All other things being equal, the Huguenot colony will remain loyal, as long as they're not being persecuted. But economic persecution (even if not religious in nature) will eventually rear it's head, leading to discord. This migration policy could enjoy initial success, but eventually will be a victim of its own success. At some point the colony will have enough clout to be a threat to policy in France which will want to control the colonial sphere in regards to trade, manufacture, and economy. It's a good route to an eventual independent Hugonia, but that isn't why colonies are established.

Rubrum · May 15, 2024

holycookie said:
Hi, I recommend reading @Kurd Gossemer ´s TL and this thread,https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...he-new-world-was-discovered-much-later.549570, which has a good discussion about France and Brazil.

I'll take a look, for sure!

holycookie said:
The colonization of the New World/Brazil was pushed by the naval and commercial elite of France. With the Atlantic Admiralty (which was located in the city of Rouen) and the merchants/nobility of the city as a whole pushed this colonization of that region. This is due in part to the dispute between the Atlantic navy and the Mediterranean navy. The Atlantic navy was very decentralized and this would provide the funds needed to reform and truly centralize that navy. France never accepted the Treaty of Tordesillas ( with its king asking to see Adam's will that would exclude France from the division of America),

A centralized and reformed French navy? This is interesting, maybe a bigger and better French navy, but not as good as the British? Also, a good point: the funds that came from Brazil. They won't be used to rebuild Lisbon after the 1755 earthquake (at least, AFAIK, the funds came from the gold mines in Brazil), so perhaps Portugal will be poorer in this timeline. What the French would do with the funds is a good question (I mean, I don't think they would just use 3 thousand tons to build a giant navy, they would probably build some infraestructure in the metropole and the colony and, idk, an early versailles), considering that gold was found after the Thirty Years' War, although without the Treaty of Tordesillas as a limiting factor, colonists could easily explore the interior.

holycookie said:
People tend to imagine a Dutch northeast, but that is a region that they would never be able to consolidate. If the Dutch were Catholic this would be possible, complicated by the ban on black people and mixed people in the government when compared to the Portuguese government, but viable. In relation to the French colony, If it survives the state of consolidation the problem is less whether it is competitive and more how much the colony will expand. With the colony being able to swallow both the Portuguese colony in Brazil and the Spanish colony in the Plata region if the Iberian powers are not careful.

Tbh I only mentioned New Holland because the Portuguese wouldn't have half of their colony, but I must confess that I didn't know where Portugal had recruited its soldiers from to expel the Dutch, seeing now, it seems that they (the commanders at least) came from the Northeast, so no surviving New Holland apparently.

holycookie said:
Firstly, the colony was not exclusively Huguenot, the colony was multi-religious since its creation. A curious thing was that while the Catholic French colonists mixed with the natives and had mixed children, the Protestants (Calvinists and Lutherans) vehemently refused to have relations with the natives. With this being a point of tension between these two groups in the colony. Another point of tension was the "governor's" attempt to prohibit pre-meritorious sex between Catholic colonists and Indians. So while theoretically, the largest mass of immigrants will initially be Huguenots, when gold is discovered they will likely become a large minority (perhaps somewhere around 20% to 30% of the population)

I do know that Antarctique was a multi-religious colony. I didn't know about the second part though, TIL. Btw, I only put more emphasis on the 'formation of a Huguenot society' because, at first glance, it were the people who were most likely to migrate to the colony, especially with the French Wars of Religion and the Edict of Nantes (as you said, the largest mass of immigrants initially would probably be Huguenots). So, Villegaignon would need to allow religious freedom and let the settlers do a little toomfolery, before or after marriage. About the last part of the paragraph, idk if they would become a minority, but, as I said, it's not like every single Huguenot Frenchman would migrate to the colony, so it's possible.

holycookie said:
and warfare. As a whole, I would say that the Huguenots will disproportionately be one of the richest groups in the colony. Now in relation to the heart of the Huguenots in the colony, I would say that after the discovery of gold, greater attention from the metropolis, and Catholic migration they would migrate south towards more temperate lands. So this heart will probably be in the south of Brazil, where it is difficult to say but it will probably be in otl Rio Grande do Sul/Santa Catarina. It's far enough away that the central government of the colony and the metropolis don't care what they're doing. The lands do not have cash crops and mineral wealth such as gold and diamonds (at least not in an interesting volume). What the land has is fields for cattle production, a pleasant climate, and fertile land for family agricultural production. Things that are interesting for religious dissident groups. In addition to a means of expansion if they want through the advance towards the Spanish colony to the south.

Oh, yes, warfare too. I remember reading about Hermann von François, Adolf Galland, Hans-Joachim Marsaille and others. Speaking of rich groups (sorry for this), could Antarctique be more tolerant towards Jews? The protestant Dutch, when they conquered the Northeast, allowed the opening of synagogues and the practice of Judaism, if I remember correctly.
About the 'heart in the south of Brazil', I've been thinking of an 'Antarctic' Buenos Aires at OTL Sacramento. If they do conquer the Mesopotamian region, they would have hegemony over the Rio de la Plata Basin, freely navigating the Paraná and Uruguay rivers and others, like the Tietê, Paranaíba, Paranapanema, Iguazu, etc.
I tried to make a map of what it could look like, but I'm no cartographer and it may be considered bordergore for some.

holycookie said:
What do you mean by social? because there is a difference in French and English customs and cultures even with Norman colonization. The relationship to color and indifference to Indians was similar between the Huguenots and Americans. If we compare the Huguenots and the Pilgrims we have cultural and theological differences, but the biggest factor in my opinion is martial tradition. The Huguenots were much more aggressive and militarily active than the Pilgrims. Theologically speaking (simplified of course) the Huguenots leaned towards a more Presbyterian structure and emphasized the sovereignty of God, while the Pilgrims prioritized congregational autonomy and individual conscience in their interpretation of scripture.

I mean, like, white anglo-saxon protestant and white 'gallo-frankish'(?) protestant (not wanting to diminish the work that other groups had in shaping American society). A society built by protestant religious refugees, descentralized and uh... capitalist, maybe?

holycookie said:
Yes, but what they will be used for will depend on whether or not the Northeast is conquered. If this happens they will initially be used in cash crops and then gold, now if the northeast is not conquered they will be used in mining.

This depends on the size of the colony. But with the size you said, it will be an absolute white majority

I don't know if the Northweast could be conquered. Like you said, Brazil wasn't exactly the crown jewel of the Portuguese Empire (not yet that is) and the population was 25,000 more or less, but there were already some sugar plantations iirc, the paubrasilia/brazilwood thing, etc. I think they would mantain the north-northeast.
Yeah, it would probably be a white majority, but I still think there would be a black minority, but idk if it would be large, like 1/5 of the population. If you copypaste the situation you had in 1872 (year in which the only census in the Empire of Brazil was conducted), the southeast region would have its fair share of black population, although that same population practically """diminish""" (in proportion) when you compares it to the 1940 census. (in 1872 38,8% of the population was mixed, 38,1% white and 19,7% black; in 1940, 63,47% were white, 21,21% were mixed and 14,64% considered themselves blacks). Interestingly, in Argentina you have Tango, which emerged from african cultural influence, so perhaps a mixture of ballet and maxixe could be created. France better be prepared for this dance of cultures.

holycookie said:
theoretically yes, they have the only good-quality coal mines in the region, the land is fertile, and the culture is industrial enough. It would be a more militarized USA, perhaps a good way to get an idea would be to compare it to other countries in Europe. I don't think it will be as militaristic as Prussia. So something between France and Prussia in relation to how militarized it would be.

Is the coal mined in the south of good quality? I've heard they have a poor quality when compared to other parts of the world.
Also, a catholic-huguenot francophone south-american country the Prussia of South America? Poor Chile will lose its prestigious title. Sounds badass though.

holycookie · May 15, 2024

unprincipled peter said:
My preferred region is Pennsylvania/New York, but that's irrelevant.

Well it's not like it was impossible to have two Huguenot colonies in the same tl, if both attempts (North and South America) were successful it would be quite possible.

unprincipled peter said:
will eventually create profit.

The largest profit, if there is no conquest of the northeast, will come from gold mining. With the gold rush, we will have Catholic immigration to the colony

unprincipled peter said:
But economic persecution

This is difficult to happen if the "industrial base" (manufacturing) is Huguenot. Now they can try to prevent investments from the metropolis to Protestant areas, but if they have the economic power to operate alone there is no such problem.

unprincipled peter said:
It's a good route to an eventual independent Hugonia, but that isn't why colonies are established.

Yes, this is true, the biggest reason is to generate wealth. The problem is how much gold there is in Minas Gerais (there is a lot of gold, this in itself will generate a large focus in the metropolis ; in addition to threatening the existence of the Portuguese colony)

Rubrum said:
A centralized and reformed French navy?

During this period, the Mediterranean (or Levantine) navy was leagues above the Atlantic in terms of organization. In OTL, the intense French maritime activity in Brazil is accompanied by numerous acts of piracy and aggression against the Portuguese to try to expel them from the region, both in Brazilian waters (the first French ship was boarded in Brazil in 1504, in the bay of the river Paraguaçu), as well as at mandatory crossing points on return routes (Azores and other important connections). The situation got so bad that the French Atlantic merchant and military navy was attacking any Portuguese ship they encountered on the way to Brazil. This is due in part to the search for financial sustainability of this navy, which was secondary to the Mediterranean navy, and the fact that the ships did not belong to the king but rather to nobles who "lent" these ships to the king.

Every trip to Brazil was extremely profitable. Brazilian wood, in addition to being used for clothing, musical instruments, and furniture of extremely high quality, was used to dye paper sheets in the Rouen industry. Not just brazilwood, but animal skins, fruits, and exotic seeds. Live animals such as monkeys and parrots (animals highly valued in Europe). Concern for France was so great that the Portuguese king, at the beginning of the 16th century, published a decree ordering all his subjects, under penalty of death, to sink all French ships leaving or arriving from Brazil. And that was not without reason, in 1540 nine ships from Rouen were sent to Brazil; fifteen Dieppe ships and ships from Brittany were equipped for the same destination (24 in total). In 1541, thirty to forty ships left for South America and especially Brazil. In 1546, a fleet of twenty-eight ships left Le Havre bound for Brazil.

So, in a simplified way, the idea of the Atlantic Navy (and its merchant and nobility elite) was to secure Brazil and use its resources to strengthen itself against the Mediterranean navy and have more political strength. The fact that the navy was a mix of Huguenots and Catholics and functioned without any major problems until the religious war occurred is an interesting factor.

Rubrum said:
but not as good as the British?

I mean the advantage of the English navy has always been experience/tradition and a good investment. But in that era, it was inferior to Spain and in certain periods to France. Nothing is defined in stone.
This graphic from the official navy of both, Breakdown of Ship Size by Tonnage

Rubrum said:
so perhaps Portugal will be poorer in this timeline.

This depends on whether they hold off the Dutch advance into Asia or not.

Rubrum said:
without the Treaty of Tordesillas as a limiting factor

it was less of a treaty and more of an agreement that Portugal and Spain broke more than once

Rubrum said:
I didn't know where Portugal had recruited its soldiers from to expel the Dutch

It was a revolt led by the colonists (the story is very interesting. We have 4 leaders, 2 plantation owners, a black son of former slaves, and a Catholic native pajé/tribal chief).

Rubrum said:
So, Villegaignon would need to allow religious freedom and let the settlers do a little toomfolery, before or after marriage.

one of the groups he angered were the Normans, who served as translators for the natives and tended to adopt certain native customs. They range from multiple wives to cannibalism.

Rubrum said:
could Antarctique be more tolerant towards Jews?

Maybe this depends on several factors, such as religious freedom in the colony, how the Huguenots got along with the Jews, etc. But they may be tolerated.

Rubrum said:
I tried to make a map of what it could look like, but I'm no cartographer and it may be considered bordergore for some.

It's a great map

Rubrum said:
but idk if it would be large, like 1/5 of the population.

This depends on future immigration, whether there is crossbreeding between Europeans and blacks, etc.

Rubrum said:
Is the coal mined in the south of good quality? I've heard they have a poor quality when compared to other parts of the world.

Since 1827, coal had already been explored in Brazil, an English company was extracting it from the mines located in Santa Catarina. The largest concentration of coal mining in Brazil is located in the southern region. The main coal reserves already identified are in the states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul and the smaller ones in Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Bahia, and other states. Brazil has reserves of peat, lignite, and coal/hulha. Coal/hulha/Bituminous totals 32 billion tons of reserves and is mainly in Rio Grande do Sul (89.25% of the total), followed by Santa Catarina (10.41%); The South of Brazil.

Peat can be 55% to 60% carbon; lignite, from 67% to 78%; coal/hulha/Bituminous, from 80% to 90%; and anthracite, 96%. Water content is high in peat (75%) but much lower in other coals (8% to 10%).

Peat extraction is preceded by drainage of the area to reduce its humidity. Once this is done, it is extracted and deposited in the open to lose even more moisture. It is then cut into blocks and used as fuel in furnaces, and thermoelectric plants, obtaining combustible gas, tar, waxes, paraffin, ammonia, and other substances. Its use in soil reconstitution (agricultural peat) is also important.
Lignite can be of two types, brown or black, each with various other names. They are used after drying or not, in industrial gasogens, in obtaining tar and other products. By pyrolysis, it can provide waxes, phenols, paraffins, olefins, etc. The ash resulting from its combustion can be used for the production of pozzolanic cement and ceramics.
Hard coal/Hulha/Bituminous has two main uses and based on them it is divided into steam coal or energy coal – the poorest and with the highest ash content, used directly in furnaces, mainly in thermoelectric power plants and metallurgical.

The country does not have anthracite, the noblest of coals, but it has the rest. Germany for example has all kinds, about 36% is anthracite. Brazil simply did not industrialize in the coal period and when it began to industrialize coal was no longer necessary and could use other sources of energy. The UK industrialized itself using Bituminous, for anthracite coal is relatively rare and is not commonly found in the United Kingdom.

unprincipled peter · May 15, 2024

Rubrum said:
Is the coal mined in the south of good quality? I've heard they have a poor quality when compared to other parts of the world.

This has always been my understanding. holycookie has tried convincing me otherwise on at least one occasion, but when I look into it, I come away not swayed. At best, it is mediocre quality, from what I can tell. But, even accepting it at face value, it has the big disadvantage of being far from the country's iron reserves.

I believe the early attempts were not all that profitable, or extensive.

But, the coal is a regional resource, and with a different human situation could have been exploited more.

holycookie · May 15, 2024

unprincipled peter said:
but when I look into it, I come away not swayed.

I mean is a fact, not a big debate. Most coal in Brazil is bad to meh quality, but this specific group is good.
some sources:

Coal in Brazil

Brazil has five coal-bearing regions: (1) Pliocene(?) coal in the Pébas Formation of the Upper Amazon basin; (2) Eopaleozoic coal in the Rio Fresco Formati

pubs.geoscienceworld.org

Trindade, R.B.E. and Ribeiro, H.J., 2013. Characterization of coal from the Rio Bonito Formation, southern Brazil. International Journal of Coal Geology, 116, pp.71-81.
Godoy, M.M. and Mayer, L.M., 1998. The Rio Bonito coal in the Paraná Basin, southern Brazil. International Journal of Coal Geology, 37(3-4), pp.235-247.
Mineral Commodity Summaries 2020, United States Geological Survey (USGS).
Brazil Country Commercial Guide, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Aneel - Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency) reports and publications.

unprincipled peter said:
it has the big disadvantage of being far from the country's iron reserves.

Yes and this is something that they will have to deal with whether through importing iron from Argentina/South Africa etc. Or having to export coal to the north of Brazil or import iron from the north of Brazil (north relative to their position)

holycookie · May 15, 2024

That's why sometimes I say that Rio Grande do Sul/Santa Caratina was missing to complete a super Argentinean.

Rubrum · May 15, 2024

holycookie said:
It's a great map

Thanks.

holycookie said:
This depends on future immigration, whether there is crossbreeding between Europeans and blacks, etc.

Another interesting topic. It seems to be a common trope in this forum that Brazil did not reach its full potential regarding immigration, mainly because of slavery and the mistreatment of immigrants (like that case in which Prussia banned immigration to Brazil in 1859, being revoked only for the three southern states). Between 1880-1930, 1,5 million italians and 250,000 germans migrated to Brazil, settling in the south and southeast, with some communities still maintaining their dialects like Talian and Hunsrückish. So maybe the numbers could change drastically, or it could simply be similar to what we had OTL, but I bet on the first option. I've seen timelines like A New World with New Ideas where as much as 6 million Italians and 1 million Germans migrate to the country (it would be cool to see Paraná Germans like Volga Germans), the Irish being an interesting addition, but idk if they would choose Antarctique instead of America. Oh, there is also the east asian migration. While the Chinese would settle in their Chinatowns in America's west coast, I think the Japanese would probably still settle in the territories of Antarctique, but I don't see why more of them (240,000 OTL) would come though.
Speaking of immigrants, I'm sure they would take some loanwords, just like the Americans and Brazilians did OTL. Antarctique's french is going to be interesting.

holycookie said:
Since 1827, coal had already been explored in Brazil, an English company was extracting it from the mines located in Santa Catarina.

holycookie said:
Yes and this is something that they will have to deal with whether through importing iron from Argentina/South Africa etc. Or having to export coal to the north of Brazil or import iron from the north of Brazil (north relative to their position)

unprincipled peter said:
it has the big disadvantage of being far from the country's iron reserves.

Sorry, but arent there iron mines in the Centro-Sul? The production is carried out mainly by Pará and Minas Gerais, with the city of Itabira having one of mines.
But it seems the country do have an industrial potential. Maybe not like America's mass production, but something between Western Europe and the US? I cant think of a parallel right now. Methinks Antarctique could have become what Brazil tried to be in the 1970s and 1980s: a country with cutting-edge military technology, as well as an exporter to second-third world countries. In OTL we have/had companies like Macjee, Siatt, Orbital Engenharia, Ares, Embraer and, of course, Engesa. This, with the Huguenot's financial and martial prowess, would really do wonders to the south american and country's arms industry. I wonder what would happen to the other countries in the region. OTL we had the South American dreadnought race between Argentina, Brazil and Chile, so perhaps it could result in a most powerful Argentine and Chilean navies, with some brazilian states in the north joining the race. Antarctique could even serve as an exemple for the Argentine elite, you know, showing what industrialization and fiscal responsibility could do, avoiding the various economic collapses that we have seen, but I doubt it.
Tbh I even thought that a French Brazil could lead up to a British Argentina, considering the two invasions of Buenos Aires and Montevideo during the Napoleonic Wars, if Uruguay/Cisplatine is already under Francophone control. In that case, I think the colony would have already achieved its independence, considering that London wanted to kick the French from the New World in the Seven Years' War. So maybe, just maybe, Antarctique would be the first independent country in the Americas, some 15 years before the US.

unprincipled peter · May 16, 2024

Rubrum said:
Sorry, but arent there iron mines in the Centro-Sul? The production is carried out mainly by Pará and Minas Gerais, with the city of Itabira having one of mines.
But it seems the country do have an industrial potential.

I've not heard the term Centro-Sul. Para and Minas Gerais are a long way from southern Brazil.

I absolutely agree that Brazil has everything it takes to be an industrial giant. The big issues are lack of coal (or location of the good stuff), and the terrain. Both of these are surmountable. Portuguese Brazil added the impediment of the human factor. They set up the country for latifundia where there was a very tiny elite class with a humongous undereducated peasant and slave class. This is ultimately what held Brazil back for so long. If French Antarctique avoids this issue, with the assumption that it becomes a robust colony, they'll dominate every region they can reach (geography limiting their 'natural' borders), especially if Spain develops their OTL South American regions similarly to OTL. Can't count on that, as actions (robust Antarctique) will cause reactions. Maybe Spain builds up the La Plata region as a barrier, which could put those coal reserves in the Argentinian/Spanish territory. But, if Spain still lags in developing La Plata, while France sets up a vibrant Antarctique, OTL Argentina, or portions of it, can easily be part of this French colony. There is still the distance factor from the far south to initial Antarctique, so much depends on how fast Antarctique establishes and expands.

I shouldn't have to add this, but this has nothing to do with French vs Portuguese genetics. It is purely socio-economic.

A different line of thought: in the late 1500s, France backed the Dutch in their struggle for independence from Spain. If this French colony succeeds in the middle of Dutch territory, will France leverage support for recognition? I imagine France will look to have it both ways - supporting the Dutch while looking to expand Antarctique at the expense of Dutch Brazil. Is this feasible? Edit: I had a brain fart here. Brazil was Portuguese, not Dutch. The deleted text does not apply. I'll take the credibility hit, and leave my idiocy for the world to see.

holycookie · May 16, 2024

Rubrum said:
Another interesting topic. It seems to be a common trope in this forum that Brazil did not reach its full potential regarding immigration,

This is one of the factors, we have others such as geography and climate. Immigration will be stronger in the southeast and south due to the better climate. Although in the era of mass immigration, the south of the country was very undeveloped and its rise comes with this immigration.

Rubrum said:
Hunsrückish.

Something funny is that today Germans can't understand this language.

Rubrum said:
the Irish being an interesting addition,

This depends more on whether Ireland is independent or not. Regarding Germanic migration, it was almost exclusively Catholic. That's why the strong Austrian and Bavarian Germanic culture

Rubrum said:
Japanese would probably still settle in the territories of Antarctique, but I don't see why more of them (240,000 OTL) would come though.

Regarding Japanese migration, this depends on whether the diplomatic relationship between Japan and Brazil remains the same. Another important group in the OTL were the Christian Arabs, who comprise 10% of the population today.

Rubrum said:
Sorry, but arent there iron mines in the Centro-Sul?

There are several, of great size. Obviously, these mines are not gigantic like those in Minas and Para. But they have enough iron to use in industrialization and export the surplus. This map shows 2 of the largest mines in the region and how this iron is exported. As you can see, this may require even greater intervention in the Plata basin to secure the safe passage of iron (a cannibalization of every thing west of the Paraguay river is a possibility).

Rubrum said:
so perhaps it could result in a most powerful Argentine and Chilean navies, with some brazilian states in the north joining the race.

You likely have an anti-Antartique alliance/coalition to try to prevent the expansion of that power. Rival powers not help each other, it is possible that countries like Argentina try to imitate the French nation. But if we have a century of civil war like in the past, the most likely thing is that Antartique will simply start cannibalizing Argentina.

Rubrum said:
Tbh I even thought that a French Brazil could lead up to a British Argentina,

In this case, expect a large number of wars in the region.

unprincipled peter said:
I shouldn't have to add this, but this has nothing to do with French vs Portuguese genetics. It is purely socio-economic.

More or less, there were Portuguese cultural factors that really hindered the colony. The ban on university and book production is one. The waste of the gold and sugar boom, with the vast majority of wealth going to English coffers due to the ignorance and incompetence of Portuguese elites. Even the Dutch invasion was due to Portuguese laziness. With them preferring to outsource sales in Europe to the Dutch, a dependency between the Dutch and the Portuguese was created (in addition to the strengthening of the Netherlands). When the union with Spain occurred, the Dutch were forced to invade Brazil to keep the sugar market open for them. Stating that it is just socio-economics and has nothing to do with the Portuguese is wrong, it is clear that slavery and plantation barons are a serious problem for the advancement of a country. But denying the many problems caused by Portugal is wrong. Even the danger of the French conquering Brazil from the Portuguese was in part because Portugal did not want to invest in their colony in the new world (really at the time there was serious doubt about who would win the dispute, an English diplomat bet in the french wining, unfortunately, I don't remember his name).

unprincipled peter said:
If this French colony succeeds in the middle of Dutch territory

middle of Dutch territory? Do you mean the invasion of the Dutch of the Portuguese colony in 1624? In my opinion, since is 50 years in the future it will depend on a lot of factors. Now a thing that they do is support the Dutch and later on invade the region as savior of the catholic population against Protestant oppression. With their base in the south and good propaganda, they could in theory conquer the whole thing (depending on the situation they could even take Angola, since the Brazilian and Angola elites were very close due to the slave trade).

unprincipled peter · May 16, 2024

holycookie said:
Stating that it is just socio-economics and has nothing to do with the Portuguese is wrong, it is clear that slavery and plantation barons are a serious problem for the advancement of a country. But denying the many problems caused by Portugal is wrong. E

You misunderstand. I was heading off the notion of racism. That the French would succeed merely because French blood is superior to Portuguese blood. I've ran into this accusation (although it was English blood vs Spanish) before. My point and yours are similar, that Portuguese socio-economic-political policies were a root cause of why the colony was as it was.

And, I had a brain fart in confusing Dutch with the Portuguese colony, so I am deserving of being whipped with a wet noodle. Dunno what the heck I was thinking. Scratch that whole line of thought. I'll slink away to wipe the egg off my face.

holycookie · May 16, 2024

unprincipled peter said:
That the French would succeed merely because French blood is superior to Portuguese blood.

Oh, that makes sense. The problem is the Portuguese culture and decision. The Treaty of Methuen was the final nail in the Portuguese economy. Together with the lack of investment in key things like infrastructure and education kills the nation.

unprincipled peter said:
My point and yours are similar, that Portuguese socio-economic-political policies were a root cause of why the colony was as it was.

Yep

unprincipled peter said:
And, I had a brain fart in confusing Dutch with the Portuguese colony

That happens, but I liked the idea of the French using the Dutch invasion to conquer Portuguese Brazil.