Standing up to Putin at democracy gathering

WELCOME to Global Playbook, coming to you from the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, which kicks off today with a focus on Ukraine, Taiwan, tech and freedom. I’m Suzanne Lynch, bringing you all the news and analysis from the Danish capital with a stellar POLITICO crew on the ground.

CHASING THE NORTHERN LIGHTS: Skies across northern Europe lit up in recent days as a rare solar storm put on a show. Traces of purple could just about be seen last night as dusk fell over the Royal Danish Playhouse, where the summit opens this morning.

The outlook: It’s all about democracy here at the two-day forum — and let’s face it, the world could do with a dose of optimism. With war waging in Europe, the Middle East and in countries from Sudan to Myanmar, the geopolitical picture has rarely seemed so bleak. The confluence of elections across the world this year means it could be a pivotal moment for democracy.

WHO’S HERE: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen; European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen; European Council President Charles Michel; Deputy Prime Minister of Denmark Troels Lund Poulsen; Former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin; President of Kosovo Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu; Andriy Yermak, head of the president’s office of Ukraine; European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency Věra Jourová; President of Ghana Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo; Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarus opposition leader; Kurt Volker, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO.

EU intrigue: Von der Leyen was a late addition to the summit — and she’s appearing in her capacity as one of the lead candidates for the upcoming European election, rather than as the European Commission chief. No doubt Charles Michel — whose intense rivalry with von der Leyen is well-documented — will be hoping he won’t be upstaged.

WHO’S ZOOMING IN: An A-list cast from the U.S. and further afield will address the conference virtually, including: Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; Minority Leader of the United States Senate Mitch McConnell; Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov; Taiwan’s outgoing and incoming presidents, Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Ching-te respectively; Taiwan’s Digital Affairs Minister Audrey Tang; Virgin founder Richard Branson.

WHO’S NOT INVITED: Unlike many global gatherings on the international calendar (here’s looking at you, Davos) representatives from autocratic states such as Saudi Arabia and China aren’t on the guest list.

KEY THEMES: As always, Taiwan is likely to be a focus, with both its current and its future presidents to address delegates virtually. Ukraine‘s current challenges on the battlefield will also be a significant topic, with Umerov’s and Yermak’s comments likely to be closely watched. The intersection between technology, democracy and freedom are also a major theme.

PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW

INSIGHTS FROM A FORMER NATO CHIEF: Ahead of the opening of the two-day conference, I sat down with founder of the Alliance of Democracies, former Danish Prime Minister and NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen, to discuss what to expect over the next few days.

DEMOCRATIC DEFICIT: First up: the latest Democracy Perception Index. As Global Playbook reported last week, the annual survey of more than 60,000 people typically released ahead of the Copenhagen gathering is something of a mixed bag when it comes to the state of global democracy, not least on the topic of Russia’s war in Ukraine. While support for cutting economic ties with Moscow remains high in Europe and the United States, that’s not the case in most of the rest of the world.

Always look on the bright side: Rasmussen starts with the good news. “Firstly, I would highlight the positive — namely that 85 percent of the respondents express a wish for democracy, consider democracy the best way of ruling a country,” he said. “But the flip side is that only 58 percent considers their own country a real democracy, and this goes for both autocratic and democratic countries … It’s a clear message to democratically elected leaders to address people’s concerns.”

The Kremlin’s winning the narrative: Rasmussen said the split between the U.S. and Europe on one side and the rest of the world when it comes to Russia is concerning. “Clearly you have a divide. It shows that the group of democratic countries has failed to invest sufficiently — economically, security-wise — in developing countries in the so-called Global South. We have to take note of that; do much more and much better.”

West is also losing to China: “Take Africa,” Rasmussen said. “We have handed over the African continent to the Chinese. They have invested heavily, and haven’t asked too many questions about freedom, democracy, rule of law.” But once China extracts the natural resources it needs, much of the manufacturing takes place outside Africa, Rasmussen noted. “For Africa, it’s a very, very bad deal. I think we could do much better, develop a more convincing narrative — that freedom and democracy is a much much better model that serves Africa’s interests much better than Chinese communism.”

UKRAINE IN FOCUS: Later today Rasmussen, together with Andriy Yermak, will unveil the latest report from the international task force on Ukraine’s Security and Euro-Atlantic Integration. Its main takeaway? NATO leaders should invite Kyiv to start accession talks at the alliance’s summit in July. Though “that does not mean membership overnight,” Rasmussen said.

In the short term: The report, backed by figures including former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague, as well as former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Wesley Clark, also sets out ways to help bolster Ukraine’s defense needs now, focusing on weapon delivery. It comes as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken touched down in Kyiv overnight, seeking to reassure Ukraine of America’s support.

Cost of U.S. foot-dragging: Rasmussen said he’s very concerned about the current situation on the ground in Ukraine, where Russia appears to be making gains around Kharkiv. President Vladimir Putin has “exploited” the delays in passing the recent U.S. aid package: “There is no doubt that he has reinforced his offensive to achieve as much as he can before the resumption of the delivery of American aid.”

EU not off the hook: But Europe also needs to step up. “North Korea was able to deliver to Russia the same quantity of artillery munition in one month equivalent to what the European Union was able to deliver in a year. That’s embarrassing,” Rasmussen noted. “We have to bring our economies on a war footing,” he added, urging Germany to send Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine.

If not now, when? Ultimately, Rasmussen said he believes Ukraine’s future lies with NATO — and dismissed the idea that the alliance he led for more than five years can’t start membership negotiations with a country at war.

Putin’s perverse NATO incentive: “If you argue that you cannot extend an invitation to Ukraine as long as a war is going on, then you give Putin an incentive to continue the war, to prevent Ukraine joining NATO,” Rasmussen said. “We have to break that vicious circle.”

NOW READ THIS: Putin’s surprise reshuffle on Sunday put the vital defense portfolio in the hands of a Keynesian economist who hasn’t served a day in the military. POLITICO’s Eva Hartog examines how Andrei Belousov rose to become one of the Kremlin’s top officials and what his background tells us about how Putin plans to win the war in Ukraine.

TALK OF THE TOWN

WHEN ONE GATES CLOSES: In a statement, Melinda French Gates, the famed philanthropist (who is no stranger to Global Playbook), announced she’s resigning as co-chair of the $75 billion Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, leaving Bill Gates as the sole chair. “The time is right for me to move forward into the next chapter of my philanthropy,” she said, adding she’ll receive $12.5 billion to use for her own charitable endeavors related to women and families.

The replies are quite the who’s-who of the global scene. “Melinda, this is so exciting,” tweeted Hillary Clinton. World Bank Managing Director of Operations Anna Bjerde thanked French Gates “for the leadership you have shown over the years on behalf of the most vulnerable — starting with your never-ending passion for empowering women and girls.” Writer E. Jean Carroll added: “Can not wait for the next brilliant chapter!!”

The big question now is … Will it still be called the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation?

AGENDA

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING: Playbook has curated a selection of today’s top events. Keep an eye out for POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy, Gordon Repinski, Mark Scott and yours truly — we’ll be chairing a number of the sessions over the next two days.

Watch all the livestreamed panels here … Full agenda.

— 9 a.m. Opening remarks by moderator Jeanne Meserve, host of the NatSec Tech podcast, and POLITICO’s Suzanne Lynch.

— 9:05 a.m. Welcome remarks by Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen.

— 9:15 a.m. Keynote introduction by Anders Fogh Rasmussen, chair of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation.

— 9:25 a.m. Keynote by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on “a strong Europe in the world.”

— 9:40 a.m. Launch of Democracy Perception Index 2024 with Nico Jaspers, CEO of Lantana

— 9:50 a.m. European Council President Charles Michel in keynote discussion on the future of European leadership on values.

—10:10 a.m. Keynote discussion “From the frontlines: Kosovo’s defense of democracy,” with President of Kosovo Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu.

—10:30 a.m. “Part 1: The road to two-state democracy: Israel’s state of democracy,” with Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute.

— 10:40 a.m. “Part 2: The road to two-state democracy: Palestine,” with Fadi Elsalameen, adjunct senior fellow of American Security Project.

— 11:20 a.m. Keynote discussion on Armenia’s defense of democracy, with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

— 11:40 a.m. Europe votes debate on the EU’s future democratic trajectory. Features Members of the European Parliament Lídia Pereira, Markéta Gregorová and Michiel Hoogeveen.

— 12:05 p.m. Tribute to Democracy art installation with Ukrainian artist Zhanna Kadyrova.

— 1:25 p.m. Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivers introductory remarks (via videoconference) on Ukraine’s security and Euro-Atlantic integration.

— 1:30 p.m. Presentation of high-level report on Ukraine’s security and Euro-Atlantic integration, featuring Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Andriy Yermak.

— 1:55 p.m. Discussion on securing Ukraine’s military needs, with Denmark’s Deputy PM Troels Lund Poulsen and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov (virtual).

— 2 p.m. Press conference on Ukraine’s Security and Euro-Atlantic Integration (press only).

— 2:15 pm. Keynote on what should Democracies do to defend Ukraine? Features Matthew Pottinger, former U.S. deputy national security adviser, in conversation with Jonas Parello-Plesner, executive Director of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation.

— 2:35 p.m. “Message from Democratic Taiwan” keynote by the outgoing and incoming presidents, Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Ching-te.

— 2:45 p.m. Views from the Interparliamentary Alliance on China panel featuring Bolivian activist and Senator Cecilia Isabel Requena Zárate, Member of European Parliament David Lega, Interparliamentary Alliance on China Executive Director Luke de Pulford, former Danish Minister of Culture Uffe Elbaek.

— 3:15 p.m. “Standing up for freedom in Hong Kong” with Hong Kong Democracy Council’s Carmen Lau.

— 3:25 p.m. “Businesses standing up for democracy,” with CEO of Axel Springer (POLITICO’s parent company) Mathias Döpfner (virtual).

— 3:30 p.m. “Investing in Democracy,” with Julie Cane, CEO of Democracy Investments, and Richard Rikoski, co-founder of Democracy Investments.

— 3:40 p.m. Fireside chat on “Ukraine, values and the responsibility of business,” with Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Virgin Group founder Richard Branson (virtual).

— 4:30 p.m. Keynote by Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, president of Ghana, on “Election year 2024: The people’s vote and democratic aspirations.”

— 4:50 p.m. Keynote on “U.S. global leadership on democracy” by Minority Leader of the United States Senate Mitch McConnell (virtual) and former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations and Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker.

— 5:15 p.m. “Standing up for Freedom in Iran,” with Iranian dissident Masih Alinejad, president of the World Liberty Congress.

— 5:25 p.m. Standing up for freedom around the globe: Youth Liberty Congress delegates.

— 5:35 p.m. “Standing up for freedom in Russia,” with Leonid Volkov, former chief of staff for Alexei Navalny.

— 5:50 p.m. “Standing up for Freedom in Belarus,” Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, leader of democratic Belarus.

— 6:05 p.m. Launch of Global Democracy Coalition advocacy campaign.

— 6:10 p.m. “Standing for freedom through music,” featuring Iranian musician and singer Rana Mansour.

— 7:15 p.m. Movie screening: “Bobi Wine — The People’s President.”

AROUND TOWN

TEMPERATURE CHECK: 21C/70F, cloudless skies.

SUNRISE: 5 a.m.

SUNSET: 9:12 p.m.

SCANDI NOIR: Fans of hit series “Borgen” should have time for a quick tour of some of the top sites featured in the cult political series (which is inspired by Denmark’s European Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager). Christiansborg Palace, the seat of the Danish parliament, is open daily for visitors, who can visit the royal reception rooms, the royal stables and the palace chapel.

GET HYGGE WITH IT: It’s a concept that’s difficult to pin down, but “hygge” — roughly translated as a “cozy, contented” vibe — has become one of Denmark’s top cultural exports. Stock up on some wool socks and scented candles in the hip district of Jægersborggade, north of the Playhouse.

THANKS TO Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

Due to a production error, today’s edition of Global Playbook is delivering later than intended.