Time to Impose Limits on Growth

Why are we consulting real estate speculators and economists on housing costs and community development, as seen at the recent UCSB Economic Forecast for Santa Barbara County? We should consult biologists, social scientists, financial experts, and ordinary residents.

Considering the apparent conflict of interest when involving individuals like Rick Caruso, Gene Deering, and Peter Rupert in community development is essential. While they may have valuable insights, their roles as real estate speculators and economists bias their perspectives. This is particularly true for the first two, who stand to profit from further private market property development, which could influence their recommendations.

Economics is not a deterministic science; it’s a highly politicized philosophy. Economic theory has so far failed to produce a single useful tool that can reliably predict anything. Peter Rupert, in fact, is on record stating that he cannot make useful predictions.

If one understands asset pricing and math, i.e., financial theory, it’s readily apparent that we could cover every inch of Santa Barbara County in high-density housing units, and it would not lower the cost of housing until traffic density, noise, and crowds ruin the very quality of life that keeps rental yield in Santa Barbara County competitive with that of stocks and bonds.

If one understands asset pricing and math, i.e., financial theory, it’s readily apparent that global shelter and investment demand are both far greater than the housing that can be squeezed into the county. People and capital are mobile and, in all practical terms, unlimited compared to Santa Barbara County’s capacity.

So why should we let real estate developers and their lackeys determine our future?

Affordable Housing and Functional Downtowns

State Street is a massive failure because a handful of landlords have been allowed to turn downtown into another utterly impersonal corporate strip mall.

And that means, perhaps counterintuitively to Americans who tend to believe that states are independent and self-financing entities, that every state and local government needs federal “parity” funding to provide necessary goods and services in every viable community. The federal government is the only funding entity that is not constrained by anything other than inflation. The private sector, states, and local government have much more immediate and tight budget constraints.

Santa Barbara County should demand that Sacramento fund the purchase of private properties if Sacramento wants us to create more affordable housing. The county should also use county land to build county-owned housing that is then leased to local residents at a fixed percentage of the local median household income.

The time has come to impose limits on growth, and we must end the negative influence that private real estate developers and their hired guns have on American communities.