TALLINN, Estonia – Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine should not be seen as a faraway war for those in Asia, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said on May 17, just as European democracies have a vested interest in the stability of the Indo-Pacific region.

With several conflicts simmering in various parts of the world today, Ms Kallas warned of the dangers of perceiving them as unrelated incidents because they are geographically distant, pointing to history when seemingly isolated incidents led to World War II.

“What is important to understand is that there are different tensions building up all across the world,” she said, at a media round-table discussion on May 17 on the sidelines of the Lennart Meri security conference.

Ms Kallas pointed to the ongoing border conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the current Middle East situation, and flash points in the disputed South China Sea.

“In 1938, I think a mistake was made to treat... the Italian invasion of Abyssinia (modern-day Ethiopia), the German occupation and... the Japan war... as isolated events. And I think we shouldn’t do that now,” she added.

The stakes are high for small states such as Estonia and Singapore, which must raise their voices to protect principles and stand up for a rules-based order that is fraying amid a great power battle for influence among countries in the so-called Global South, said Ms Kallas.

Moreover, Estonia is a Baltic state of 1.3 million people that was part of the Soviet Union until 1991 and borders Russia. It is near the front line of the conflict in Ukraine.

“As small countries, we’re not suspected of pushing forward our own interests when we talk about struggles. That’s our strength, we must use this to explain what is at stake,” she said, responding to a question from The Straits Times.

She conceded it would be naive, though, to expect countries to hold equal positions. “We all come from our history – we all come from our geography. We can’t really fight that.”

Ms Kallas said the current world order is under threat from Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine that is now in its 27th month and, more broadly, Chinese “grey-zone” tactics – referring to harassment and aggression that skirt near the threshold of war. Tensions are also rising in the Middle East.

Ukraine woes

The security conference in Estonian capital Tallinn was marred by an air of pessimism, with Russia gaining ground in an ongoing offensive in the border region of Kharkiv.

Ukraine is also running low on ammunition and military equipment to repel Russia’s advances.

Critics have said that the war in Ukraine is dragging on due to politics – including questions over whether the country should be admitted into Nato or be offered the full range of its defences – and even a fear of the consequences if Russia were to suffer a decisive defeat.

Estonia’s existential fear has guided some of the actions of its government and its people.

While a small country, it has given 1.25 per cent of its gross domestic product to Ukrainian aid, and is committed to spending 0.25 per cent of its GDP per year from now until 2027 to militarily support Ukraine, according to information provided by the Estonian government.

It has also raised taxes to fund defence spending, committing 3.2 per cent of GDP in 2024 to stockpiling munitions, Ms Kallas said at the conference.

The private sector is also stepping up, and Estonia, with its rich start-up culture – it has spawned companies such as Skype – is turning its attention to defence technology, such as cyber security and autonomous weapons.

Enlightened self-interest

At the same time, Estonia has its eye on the different tensions building up across the world.

Ms Kallas said many actions by the different state actors are subtle and nuanced. She accused Russia of actions in Africa through the mercenary Wagner Group that has triggered a migration crisis in Europe, where successive waves of migration from Africa are a politically charged issue.

Russia is also gaining political sway in countries like Hungary, which will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in July. In Georgia, the Russia-sympathising government is intent on pushing through a Moscow-style “foreign agents” Bill despite mass street protests.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine into the third year, the international community is growing weary of supporting Ukraine.

Mr Jonatan Vseviov, secretary-general of Estonia’s Foreign Ministry, said it is incumbent on small states such as Estonia to stand up for principles in the case of Ukraine and other conflicts in the world.

“When we talk to the rest of the world, we don’t ask them to necessarily care about Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. We ask them to care about territorial integrity and sovereignty as such,” he said.

Estonia, like Singapore, was among the 143 countries that backed a Palestinian membership bid at the UN General Assembly on May 10.

Many countries have said Israel has gone overboard with its retaliation against Hamas for the group’s attack on Oct 7, 2023, that left an estimated 1,200 dead. Israel’s strikes on Gaza have killed at least 35,303 people as at May 17.

“If you are afraid of the war reaching your country, then the overall peace of the world in different parts is a shared concern,” Ms Kallas said.

“A Ukrainian defeat is definitely something that all aggressors will learn, that (aggression) pays off, that you can, in 2024, just go bluntly and colonise part of another country, and nothing happens to you,” she added.