6.1 Introduction

This chapter presents the “three critical elements” approach, a self-assessment method recommended for founders and investors to estimate and monitor the success potential of a start-up. The three critical elements considered are time, team, and traction, (“3T”).

While the method has a general applicability, this chapter provides examples relating to the forensic market where possible. Although the volume of investment into forensic science is growing, organisations investing into this discipline are usually state, governmental or international organisations (such as The Bureau of Democracy of the US Department of State, The Center for Human Identification at UNT, Health Science Center at Fort Worth, INTERPOL), with a few exceptions like PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) forensic services. This The PwC team provides technology-driven forensic intelligence and analytics to help businesses build resilient strategies to protect value, build trust, and create opportunities as one of the Big Four accounting firms (along with Deloitte, EY and KPMG). This scenario is similar in the EU where the key player in this field is The European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI), receiving direct grants (“Monopoly Programmes”, MP) from the European Commission. These grants and investments fund projects of scientific nature, like complex identification procedure (CIP), cooperation and information sharing among laboratories (JLS/D1/2007/025), but they do not bringing these results to market. Therefore, founders and fundraisers of forensic start-ups who are willing to transition technologies to the market will likely have to compete on the open investment market, where familiarity with such generic method like the three critical elements of start-up success can provide an advantage.

Besides describing the 3T considered critical for success, the chapter also provides context to their use to achieve readiness levels of different types. Finally, to support understanding the rational behind choosing different readiness level assessment or a more complex technology readiness level, development and structure of the quintuple helix, the concept behind research and innovation policy for sustainability will be described.

This chapter is written for practitioners and researchers in forensics with the aim to give an initial guide in bringing their innovations to the market, and not for economists or business development scholars; therefore some of the research and study results, approaches and structures are intentionally presented in a simplified manner. Several presumptions are used, for example that the activities take place in a European socio-economical context (EEA, EU and UK) and that Keynes’ approach on active influencing of the economy with various tools including but not restricted to redistribution and regulation is adopted by governments instead of Hayek’s liberal position [1].

6.2 The 3Ts and Their Main Characteristics

The 3Ts: Time, Team and Traction are used by Székely Family and Co. Nonprofit Kft (SFC) to assess the viability of an idea, scientific result or technology to reach the market by founding a start-up. SFC is a fully privately-owned non-profit company operating in the fields of aerospace, defence, security and sustainability. It is one of the leading SME in the private Hungarian innovation sector, being the fifth entity on the list of Hungarian SMEs receiving the most EU funds from the Horizon Europe programme for research and innovation actions out of a total of 90 thousand similar entities nationwide. Its current projects include CBRN protection (https://peers-project.eu/), disaster resilience (http://b-prepared-project.com/), bidirectional charging of EVs (https://drive2x.eu/) and just twin transformation of society.

It also functions as a start-up studio, providing support to start-ups across Europe such as 27G-T (HU), Edugamitec (LU), Friendbase (SE), General Mechatronics (HU) Pedivan Ltd. (UK), Horge Technologies (HU). During the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, SFC exhibited resilience by growing in spite of the all well known difficulties that businesses faced and has supported the market roll-out of products as:

6.2.1 Time

The most important of the three critical elements is time. It affects the efficiency of operations, customer satisfaction, and profitability. Business owners must manage time wisely to make sure their goals are met and that they maximize profits. Time provides an opportunity to prioritize tasks and focus on the most important projects. This allows for the efficient allocation of resources and helps ensure work is being done in the most productive way possible. Time is more important than money, as money can be recovered or funds raised again, but time lost is lost forever. Especially for a start-up, time is even more critical than in the case of another type of business model.

The following key aspects can be identified in the dimension of time:

  • time the team can dedicate to the start-up

  • time needed to deploy the product or service

  • time until actual funds are used up

  • time until competitors roll out their own products or services

  • time window of the market opportunity

  • time available for fundraising

  • time remaining from the patent or other protection of intellectual property

6.2.2 Time the Team Can Dedicate to the Start-Up

When launching new start-ups, it is not always the case that everyone works in a full-time role. On the contrary, it is likely that start-ups can only afford part-time experts. Even founders and C-level officers may participate in multiple companies or have a full-time job besides building the start-up, which they develop as a part-time activity. However, as the start-up advances and reaches higher technology or business readiness levels, a part-time role may simply not be enough. Sooner or later, fulfilling orders, proceeding with product development, keeping the company in shape, and having the financial cash flow in hand, will all need undivided focus. Yet, perhaps the most time-consuming part still remains in satisfying existing clients’ needs, as well as further client acquisition. Eventually, the founders and key employees must choose between having this start-up as a full-time job or exiting it. Even the best start-up can fail because its key employees are not able to allocate enough time to move it forward.

6.2.3 Time Needed to Deploy the Product

In most of the cases an innovation on which a start-up is built is not immediately ready to be sold into the market. Even if it is technically ready and fully functional—especially in narrow and well-regulated segments such as forensic science, Pharmacy, baby care—there are special standards and regulatory requirements to comply with before selling the product can actually commence. Those requirements must be met, and appropriate administrative steps taken before the product can be sold to the customers, even if those customers are not individual consumers, but agencies, authorities or other organisations. An example of this lies in the procurement of forensic tools, which is usually carried out by public bodies and, as such, through public procurement. In the case of incubations carried out by SFC, it can be considered as the very regular case that the start-up builds on a new idea or on a fresh patent which is technically feasible and needed by the market, but not yet developed as a full feature product. Therefore, there is a need to spend hours and hours in designing, engineering or developing software to make the product operational and fully functional and provide a high quality for the customers. However, it also has to be remarked that the product may have follow-up versions and can be further developed even after its market release and the start-up shall not wait with market deployment after the first “Minimum Viable Product” version is.

Minimum Viable Product (MVP): A minimum viable product (MVP) is a version of a product with just enough features to be usable by early customers who can then provide feedback for future product development [2].

It is important to point out, that MVP does not imply a hastily deployment yielding a partly operational product, especially in market fields as forensic science. Having enough features meeting minimum viability reflects compliance with relevant standards and having accreditation where the MVP is available and even more importantly, fulfils the quality requirements of end-users. For example, in case of a forensic product to be sold in the EU, the product must comply with ENFSI guidelines. If the same product is to be sold in the US, it has to be accredited by the American Society of Crime Laboratory Directors/Laboratory Accreditation Board (ASCLD/LAB).

However, if a start-up aims to achieve the best possible product and highest number of features before releasing the first product version, then, technically speaking, they will likely fail to be first on the market. By the time they achieve such product, developed to the appropriate quality, the competition will have had a good chance to catch up and go ahead of them. Therefore, timely release and development is a very important timing issue and risk can only partly be mitigated by the novelty of the technology or by a clever intellectual property rights strategy.

6.2.4 Time Until Actual Funds Are Used Up

Every activity costs money. Start-ups are types of companies that strive to achieve their goals and land on the market before their overall available funds are used up. This is a very difficult game of balance and speed. The start-up has to spend enough money so that the development, innovation, market acquisition and growth may proceed, ensuring work will not stall, and people (employees, natural persons under direct contract, volunteers, helpers, ambassadors and owners themselves) are kept motivated. This does not only mean remuneration like salaries or premiums, but spending on things which are important to people, from certain aspects of the development or a logo design to joining or organising events or running charities. In most instances, the focus is on the velocity of using up the available funds. It is worthwhile, at this point, mentioning an important indicator called “burn rate”.

According to Kenton, the burn rate is the pace at which a new company not yet generating profits consumes its cash reserves [3].

Burn rate is usually expressed in currency/month (e.g. 231,500 €/month), however in some high-pace project frameworks the monthly rate is replaced by a daily rate. The burn rate and the available funds (cash reserves) define the runway or cash runway, which means the time available until actual funds are used up.

Burn rate and runway have to be estimated in every reasonable start-up’s business plan. Those indicators will change during the lifecycle of the company: successfully closed funding rounds—including additional investments from third parties or bridge funding—will extend the runway, increase of company size will increase the burn rate and shorten the runway. If the start-up fails to start revenue generation that exceeds the operating costs before it comes to the end of the runway, with no further fundraising opportunities, it will likely go bankrupt and must be wrapped up.

Indeed, this is what differentiates a start-up from another freshly started company, that they are in a business model where they accept negative cash flow, burn rate, and a limited runway (time) available, in order to get their product to market.

6.2.5 Time Until Competitors Roll Out Their Own Products

Unless the start-up is operating within a niche technical field or is a ground-breaking pioneer in that particular technology, it is probable that at least one other company is developing a very similar product, in parallel. Additionally, it is likely that a third party may choose to copy the product as soon as the first information appears on the market. Sooner or later every start-up and every product will have a competitor, either a copycat or a different kind of technology and comparable innovation. The length of the time advantage depends on multiple factors, such as the breakthrough nature of the innovation, effectiveness of intellectual property protection, the size of the actual market and so on. As this advantage diminishes, one or more competitors will be present, and they will roll out their own product. The time that is available before competitors arrive and the effective use of that time are critical to the success of a start-up. The objective, therefore, is “to be there first”, and generate revenue until competitors arrive with their own product. With good timings, the start-up can have a product which has a unique value proposition across the market sector.

Value proposition: a value proposition is a simple statement that summarizes why a customer would choose your product or service [4].

In the absence of competitors during critical time, the company has a good chance to obtain contracts, make the best bid and win procurements, sell the product to consumers, convert the start-up model into a business model with consolidated cashflow or scale-up, build a strong brand and a widen distributor network, thus making it highly likely that the funds invested will return. These funds can be re-invested into research, development, and innovation again, giving opportunity to keep or increase the advantage, as well as deploying more direct tools to strengthen market positions, such as M&AFootnote 1 or SPACsFootnote 2 (not discussed in this chapter). Therefore, start-ups developing innovative products and services must know the competitors’ standing in the field and estimate the time left from the initial advantage. They can use this advantage to rush to the market, redefine the product to avoid competition as much as possible, target a very specific customer segment and tailor the product towards them, focus on branding, increase fundraising activities or strengthen its Intellectual Property Rights related to the product.

6.2.6 Time Window of the Market Opportunity

Occasionally, one product or service is needed as a timely intervention within the market. Face masks, for example, are a fascinating illustration of this. Five to ten years ago, face masks were less needed by the general population, but their necessity surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the end of this pandemic, their requirement has somewhat diminished again. The same may be said for entilators, vaccines, tests and so on. Almost every product has a so-called time window of market opportunity when there is a spike in the need for the product. This can come from the value provided by the product or from the hype generated through marketing or from a public or private procurement wave launched by a change in regulations, policies or recent events. And this need is high.

Hype in marketing is a strategy of using extreme publicity. Hype as a modern marketing strategy is closely associated with social media. Marketing through hype often uses artificial scarcity to induce demand. Consumers of hyped products often participate as a form of conspicuous consumption to signify characteristics about themselves [5].

There is a difference in the length of the time-window needed to reach the market according to the type of the product (and the nature of the need it satisfies). Consumer technology products are designed for mass-market consumption and are typically developed with speed and capable of catching a shorter time-to-market window. These products are often driven by consumer demand and are designed to be user-friendly, intuitive, and easy to use. They are typically less complex than forensic technology products and are not designed to withstand the rigors of forensic analysis. Forensic technology products, on the other hand, are designed for use in legal and investigative contexts. They are typically more complex than consumer technology products and require a longer time-to-market window. Forensic technology products must be able to withstand rigorous testing and analysis, as they may be used as evidence in legal proceedings. They must also be able to handle large volumes of data and provide accurate results.

Start-ups must foresee this time window coming and be ready to launch the product before the time window closes. In case of forensic start-ups, as they need a longer window, foresight is more important than in case of start-ups with consumer products.

For example, in 1997, John Colbert and Peter Watkins founded the Guidance Software where Shawn H. McCreight (Chief Technical Officer of the company) created the Encase forensic tool. This tool was used in forensic science to recover evidence from seized hard drives and released it in 1998. In 2002, the company released Encase Enterprise which was among the first network-enabled forensic tools. The founders identified the coming need of digital forensics and released a product addressing that need, way ahead of competitors. If a time window for a product is already open on the market, usually it is already late to start developing a product to respond to this time window. The best solution to catch this time window is the so-called blue ocean approach, when we are opening a time window for ourselves by creating a new market and combine it with a hype. A good example of this is identification of persons using machine perception (defined as the capability of a computer system to interpret data in a manner that is similar to the way humans use their senses to relate to the world around them and ensuring that such records are not tampered with). A “blue ocean” situation, when the new technology creates a new market will be discussed in more detail later in this chapter (“traction”); however in case of forensic products, this opportunity is very rare and limited to technological breakthroughs, new rules on criminal procedures, precedent cases and evidences, as obviously the idea to create a new modus operandi to have a new forensic product sold on the market is strongly discouraged. To give a very futuristic example, let us assume that humanity develops technology on how to teleport humans and criminals start a new, hit-and-run type modus operandi: by teleporting into houses, snatch what they can and teleport away. Then, the first forensic company who will develop technology to track down a teleport process and identify the teleported person will be in a “blue ocean” situation as be the only provider on the market who is able to provide a solution.

6.2.7 Time Available for Fundraising

The availability of funds and applicable timeframes to acquire those funds are both limited. Sometimes investors inject a lot of money into the economy, mostly through the stock market (sometimes called a ‘bull market’), and thus it is very easy to obtain a capital raise with an initial public offering (IPO) and get investors and/or acquire funding from various governmental programmes (other funding sources exist). In other so-called economical down cycle times (also called a ‘bear market’), it is very hard to get an investor or get a project funded. These cycles have to be taken into account when planning the start-ups fund raising activities and timeline in general.

The Center of Financial Research and Analysis (CFRA), a global leader in financial intelligence solutions and insights, performed an analysis on the S&P 500, a stock market index that is viewed as a measure of how well the stock market is performing overall. It includes around 500 of the largest U.S. companies. They found that a bear market [on the stock market] has lasted an average of 14 months. A bull market has had an average lifespan of about 60 months. The shortest bull market lasted 98 days and ran from June 1, 1932, to September 7, 1932. A bear market has had an average decline of around − 33%. A bull market has historically had an average rise of 165%. The shortest bear markets lasted about three months in 1987 and 1990. The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%. The deepest by far happened during the financial crisis between 2007 and 2009. We saw the S&P 500 lose approximately 59% of its value in about 27 months [6].

In context of a start-up, this means that there will be 60 months on average with good chances to secure funding through one or more fundraising rounds, followed by one and a half year when the company must likely survive on the funds already acquired. Those shall be taken into account when planning cashflow and presenting to investors.

6.2.8 Time Remaining from the Patent or Other Intellectual Property

The system of patents and protection of intellectual properties does not provide permanent protection, the maximum time is limited, and an increasing fee must be paid annually to maintain it. However, there is a calculated risk of adoption given that, if there are no patents or other protections present, competitors may roll out their own product offerings easier. Moreover, competitors may disrupt our market by filing a patent themselves, covering the technology area, and limiting competing product offerings. A carefully planned and executed branding and intellectual property management activity can maintain appropriate shielding for the start-up and its product for the first two decades spent in development, and in the marketplace. Strategically, it is often prudent to guard some key elements of the technology in question, as know-how, thereby reducing the likelihood of copycat technology.

Intellectual property (IP) refers to creations of the mind, such as inventions; literary and artistic works; designs; and symbols, names and images used in commerce.

There are 6 types of IP:

  • patent

  • copyright

  • trademark

  • industrial design

  • geographical indication

  • trade secret

Detailed description of the IP types is provided in Annex 1.

6.3 The Team

To be successful, a start-up needs a dedicated and motivated team, with individuals willing and capable to build the company and perform much better than an employee in a large corporation is required to or willing, on a similar pay grade. Team members are committed to the start-up, their team-mates, the product, and the vision of the company. They have a sense of ownership (or are actual shareholders) and take pride in their work, their accomplishments and are always looking for ways to improve. Many investors are willing to invest in start-ups that have a successful team. Investors for pre-seed or seed rounds, especially business angels do not only put their money in, usually they also become member of the team. This group of people must be assembled carefully, considering the following factors:

  • size

  • competences

  • network

  • internal relationships

  • leadership

  • motivation

  • availability

  • cost

6.3.1 Size

According to Burns, a team of five to seven people is generally considered to be of optimal size. It is true that in a team of this size, the disjunction of labour is possible, but active conversation between team members remains an important advantage. Each team member has the opportunity to directly converse with other team members, but the team is big enough to enable effectiveness, productivity and happiness [7]. If the size of the starting team is too big, it will increase the burning rate and shorten our runway. A too small team may not cover the competences needed and slow down product development. Forensic science is a complex field that requires specialized knowledge and expertise. A larger team can provide more resources and expertise to help ensure that forensic science efforts are successful. However, a larger team can also be more difficult to manage and may require more resources to maintain. Smaller teams may be more agile and able to respond more quickly to changing circumstances, but they may not have the same level of expertise or resources as larger teams. The opportunity of scaling up our business is not or very hardly exploitable without growing the team. On the other hand, scaling prematurely burns cash, and it’s hard to course correct when the start-up has hundreds of employees. In case of forensic start-ups, the initial team must be larger than usual, as the development is a more complex task than in case of a consumer product. When the MVP is ready, part of the team has to be disbanded to ensure efficient go-to-market and optimise runway, then it has to be grown again for scale-up, but this time a different team than the first, focused on customer success, production and shipment rather than developing. To cope with this phenomenon, forensic start-ups regularly join forces with universities or research institutions, or spin-off from them, lending development team and capacities from those organizations or acquiring their technology via technology transfer. This way the start-up can start with a smaller team without losing capacity. In many cases the founders of the start-ups are part-time founders working in universities or research institutions [8].

Scaling up means accelerating growth with confidence, meaning that the resources that you put in should yield great results that are predictable and measurable [9].

For most forensic companies, scaling up to satisfy customer needs is very likely. For example, the ABFO Scale No. 2 was introduced in 1987 and is sold since globally.

6.3.2 Competences

As presented in the section on “time”, a start-up is under constant time pressure, which means that there is only little or no time to perform internal trainings, nor they can afford to send a team member away for months to study and acquire a new competence. Therefore, the team has to be assembled to cover all necessary competences for the start-up. Besides technical competences relevant to the field where the company operates, general skills such as effective communication, resilience and creativity are needed. Furthermore, the team shall have strong determination, integrity, tenacity and self-criticism, competent in collaboration or delegation, showing respect and accountability. At least one team member shall have business competencies like financial management, marketing and sales [10]. Demonstrating lack of competence can quickly lead to losing precious time or money (or both), which can put the start-up into difficult situations. Even the most motivated people who are really the fans of our start-up will do more damaged than good if not having the competences needed but willing to participate. Sometimes founders must make harsh decisions and replace team members who are very good team players but not competent enough for the next phase of the company. This also includes founders; at a certain growth stage they also have to consider whether they still are the best person to lead the company or they shall take one step back (or exit) and get a CEO with a different mindset, more competent in leading a company already scaled up. As the company grows, it can put more resources on internal competence development, longer onboarding of new team members and sending existing members to further develop their competences.

6.3.3 Network

Networking may seem like a buzzword, but it's a critical aspect of business success. It's all about building relationships and making connections with people who can help you grow your business. It can help the start-up connect with potential customers, investors, mentors, and other key stakeholders who can help them grow their business. An extensive and rightly positioned network, for example an ENFSI connection (or being incubated at/being a spin-off from an ENFSI member) can give start-ups access to resources, insights, and expertise in their respective market field, that can help them overcome challenges and reach new heights. It also provides a way to connect with customers and increase product and company visibility when and to what extent it is needed, without prematurely exposing the start-up to its competition. When a team member is joining a start-up, it does not only bring its competences, but also brings its network. The starting network of the start-up is the accumulated network of its team members. The velocity of building the network is dependent on the networking competence of the team.

Networking is the act of building and cultivation of productive relationships for business and making connections with people who can help you achieve your goals.

A good start-up and its team do networking by:

  • be authentic, reachable and approachable.

  • attending events or conferences (not only sectoral, but also where customers and investors can be found).

  • joining professional organizations (communities, clusters, platforms etc.).

  • use of professional and general social media.

  • follow-up leads and cultivate existing contacts—do not let people forget you unless you want it so.

  • offer help before asking for it.

  • focus on quality of your network instead on its quality.

6.3.4 Internal Relationships

Every team is made out from individuals with preferences around which individuals they like to work with and those individuals they rather not. A start-up team is more sensitive to the status of internal relationships than employees at a workplace. Good internal relationships can improve communication, increase trust and cooperation and boost morale. When communication between team members is fluid, there is less chance of misunderstanding and wasted time [11]. The company shall focus equally on developing both networking and internal relationships. Highest productivity and efficiency come from a balance of internal and external relationships, and this is directly related to success. Founders shall be ready and willing to spend time and resources to cultivate internal relationships not only between leaders and team members, but also between team members. Even if the start-ups can operate by remote work/home office, there have to be occasions when team members get together for a lunch, dinner or for some other activity everyone likes, be it an airsoft match or watching football.

Just like in case of competences, this balance needs to be developed and maintained sometimes by hard decisions on replacing team members. If a toxic person joins the team, it will pose a great risk to the success of the team and the company by bringing out the worst from the rest of the team. Sometimes this is not obvious when hiring, therefore founders shall look for signs such as gaslighting, lying or inability to apologize while working together. The loss in competences and network will always be smaller than the risk mitigated by that hard decision.

6.3.5 Leadership and Management

It was already mentioned that the leadership of the start-up has to make hard decisions. But this is not the only requirement towards leadership. Every team has to have at least one leader. A real one, which can lead by example, motivate people, communicate well, clearly and pertinently. Leadership can only be successful if it is complemented by strong management skills. The manager shall be excellent in delegating tasks and time management, to make sure the momentum built by leadership is channelled towards success. The balance between leadership and management is crucial for start-ups and businesses. Their quality will likely determine whether or not the business really takes off, as start-ups do not have the financial means to hire and motivate (keep) employees only through competitive salaries. They can only keep their team if the team feels motivated and connected to the company. The team’s spirit has to be created and kept alive by the team leader, if this is working well, it will be stronger than the drawing force of well-paying bigger companies or competitors. Research results in the field including scholars as Zaech and Baldegger argue on the importance of leadership for start-ups [12]. Today, leadership is neglected in favour of management skills by start-up founders while experience shows that those two are both necessary ingredients of start-up success.

Leadership is an interaction between two or more members of a group that often involves a structuring or restructuring of the situation and the perceptions and expectations of members. Leadership occurs when one group member modifies the motivation or competencies of others in the group. Any member of the group can exhibit some amount of leadership. [13]

Entrepreneurial leadership describes a person influencing and directing another person towards a certain action or way of thinking in the context of a start-up. [14]

Management (or managing) is the administration of organizations, whether they are a business, a nonprofit organization, or a government body through business administration, non-profit management, or the political science sub-field of public administration respectively. It is the science of managing the resources of businesses, governments, and other organizations.Footnote 3

Both leaders and manager must show respect to their followers and are genuinely concerned with their personal growth and development, by providing them with opportunities that challenge them to learn new skills and abilities and by encouraging them to think continually about situations differently than they might have previously [15]. Their social interactions with their followers are based on coaching or mentoring relationships in which the leader takes responsibility for facilitating the growth and development of the follower [16], while the manager provides the neccessary resources in terms of time and money not only to allow the performance of tasks allocate to the person but to allow personal development as well.

6.3.6 Motivation

Launching, landing, and scaling up a start-up is not a sprint, but a marathon (which has to be run fast like a sprint). Motivation of the team is a decisive factor on the long run. The best choice for the leadership is to assemble the team from competent and motivated people. However even if they manage to involve the most motivated individuals for the initial team, leadership of the team has to work on keeping the team motivated. The motivation of the team is one of the most important factors that can affect start-ups. A motivated team can help a start-up overcome challenges and achieve success. According to an article in Harvard Business Review, successful start-up teams have several characteristics in common. These include a shared vision, complementary skills, mutual trust and respect, and a willingness to learn and adapt [17].

Results from a study investigating academic incubator programs suggest that founding teams that driven by a self-oriented motivation, exhibit a significant positive relationship with start-up survival. Such tendency is not demonstrated for start-ups whose founders act out of another-oriented motivation. Compared to others, start-ups whose founding teams reach high levels of both self- and other-oriented motivation demonstrate a positive association with survival [18].

A motivated team can also help attract investors and customers by demonstrating their commitment to the start-up’s success. On the other hand, a demotivated team can lead to poor performance, missed deadlines, and even failure.

6.3.7 Availability

Every resource is as useful as it is available. This is also true for teams, as all the efforts invested into assembling, competence, internal relationships, motivation is in vain if the team is not or just partly available when an important task has to be undertaken. Nowadays, it is not any more surprising that a start-up is made out of digital nomads, or that the team works remotely or in permanent home offices. On the contrary, this approach is very much favourable because decreases the burn rate through less need for office space. This may also mean that some members of the team are working across different time zones. Regardless of whether everyone is sitting in the same office floor or spread across the globe, it is essential to have a firm and proportionate availability of the team. Otherwise, the start-up will lose its competitive edge by lagging behind response to opportunities and threats. If there are people in the team who are talented, brilliant, competent, have good network but they are not available in most of the time because they are doing something else, the company practically lacks those employees and expertise.

6.3.8 Cost

Most people have to earn their living. Even if they are motivated and connected to the start-up, the company still must provide some form of remuneration or reward, to avoid losing those employees. In addition, the bigger the team, the more additional costs come from mailbox or workspace subscriptions to working equipment and office spaces. Remuneration and rewarding can have multiple forms, including not only salary but equity (worker’s share), reimbursement of costs, covering internet for remote workers, paying premiums and so on. Team costs are significantly increasing the burn rate and therefore the founders have to make decisions whether they hire more or more expensive employees and try to achieve their objectives faster or keep the costs low but sacrifice some of the time advantage in turn. When a founder creates its business plan, the cost of the team shall be one if not the largest budget category on a 5-year basis and fundraising shall target to cover team costs for at least 2 years in advance. Teams are made of people, most of them are having families, relatives or friends to look after, and this shall not be taken lightly.

6.4 Traction

Traction is probably the most important part of launching and running a business. It is not equal with profit, especially in case of start-ups, it is equal with evidence of a consistent opportunity for growth.

Traction means there are clear indicators that the business is viable, and some degree of product or market fit has been achieved [19].

Investors demand traction. It means that a business has paying customers who believe in the product and bringing it forward by spreading the word on the value it provides.  However in the case of start-ups, this is usually not available at the start; investors understand traction with a wider perspective, also covering the capability of pulling the interest on the start-up and his products and services. A start-up can search for, build and present traction using the following sources:

  • target available market

  • customer base

  • conversion rate

  • sales activity

  • branding

  • external factors

  • company business development

6.4.1 Target Available Market

Target available market (TAM) refers to the total revenue opportunity available for a product or service. It is the maximum amount of revenue a business can generate by selling its product or service to every potential customer in its target market.

Target Available Market (TAM) is an important metric for traction as it helps to understand the potential size of their market and to assess the viability of the business model. It is calculated by multiplying the total number of potential customers by the average revenue per customer. TAM can be used to estimate the potential growth of a business and to make strategic decisions about how to allocate resources and prioritize initiatives. Investors consult market reports from consulting firms if they are not familiar with the actual market, especially when a large fund or bank is about to invest into a forensic technology company. This can lead to an assumption about the start-up’s traction.

For example, Straits Research published the following report on Forensic Technology Market Size, Share and Forecast including the following freely available sample:

The global forensic technology market size was valued at USD 14.78 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 41.92 billion by 2030, registering a compound annual growth rate of 12.28% from 2022 to 2030.

As every market segment, forensics market can also be defined as a TAM (as a whole). However, it is more advantageous to further segment it into more focused sub-segments, for example digital forensics or niche areas under sub-segments, such as digital forensics on blockchain networks. A well-defined target market helps product design, sales and fundraising. It is strongly suggested that start-ups who do not have a full view on the market procure, analyse such a report before making strategic business decisions. Even if the planned product looks capable to cover a whole market segment, it is a good choice to first target a well-selected, strong sub-segment or niche with our MVP, then extend the coverage to neighbouring parts.

Turning back to the already mentioned EnCase software, it expanded gradually; it was first released as digital evidence collection tool for hard drives, then the next release was already network-enabled, then evolved further by adding an agent for automated endpoint security. The software evolved together with the internet and connectivity.

The processing of forensic samples and evidence is essential to the investigation and prosecution of criminal cases. Scanner electron microscopy, DNA fingerprinting, alternative light photography, facial reconstruction, and Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) are some of the technologies that are utilised in the various subfields of forensic science in order to conduct investigations and analyse the evidence. The high prices connected with this technology are the primary factor that is preventing the market from expanding, particularly in the developing and emerging nations of Asia Pacific and Africa.

The primary aspect that is driving the expansion of the market is the recent uptick in the number of violent crimes perpetrated all over the world. This has been the case in recent times. In addition to that, homicide on a global scale, robbery and sexual assault crimes are the secondary reasons that are fuelling the market expansion by boosting the demand for forensic innovation. In addition, North and South America have been responsible for a sizeable portion of the increase in crime rates over the past few years. Africa and Asia have followed in this trend, which is anticipated to present an opportunity for expansion over the next period of time” [20].

6.4.2 Customer Basis

A customer base is the group of people or organisations who repeatedly buy a company’s products or use its services.

This group frequently engages with the business and provides the most financial value to the company. Depending on the industry, a customer base can be a specific group, or a target audience based on a buyer persona. It’s essential to identify a customer base because these customers are incredibly valuable to a business. They buy its products the most and rely on the company to help them achieve their goals. Recognizing these customers will help a company’s marketing, sales, and customer service teams build a productive relationship with its customer base.

In case of start-ups operating in the forensic market, building a good customer base is a key objective in order to achieve traction, as the number of customers procuring on this market is limited. Most forensic products and services are not typical consumer products, are not purchased by people ‘en masse’, rather procured by law enforcement authorities or criminal investigation bureaus in public procurement. Therefore, traction from customer base comes from such organisations and not from individuals. In cases involving products or services under development, this traction can be produced by innovation procurement programmes, such as the PCP actions in Horizon Europe, where public buyers blend product orders with grant for development and finalisation in a multi-phase project.

6.4.3 Conversion Rate

Conversion rate is the percentage of visitors who land on a website or page and then take an action, such as purchasing a product or submitting a form [21].

The action a user takes can be anything deemed important for the business, even if it doesn’t necessarily translate into sales or revenue, for example sharing a content, becoming a follower or subscribing for a newsletter. Conversion rate measures the number of users who converted as a percentage of the total number of users that visited the site. The higher the conversion rate, the more effective the content.

If a start-up has a strong website or social media presence with a good conversion rate on—for example—converting visitors to followers, it will likely convince investors that they are capable of generating traction and acquire paying customers.

For a forensic science-based product, it is useful to have a newsletter, be present on (professional) social media (such as LinkedIn), appear on relevant events, such as the Forensics Europe Expo, EU Security Research Event, International Association of Chiefs of Police Conference or World Border Security Congress. It would also be important to engage the organisations in which the targeted experts work and whose role is in sales as well as being able to influence/inform decisions. It would be even better if this stakeholder engagement is deployed at both organisational and individual expert level; crime scene investigators and forensic experts are the end-users of the product and only their support and acceptance can ensure a long-term business success. Learning materials, free samples, free trainings, on-site demos, live support are key tools to engage this target audience. For example, the Horizon Europe project PEERS led by KPMG (Klynveld Pear Marwick Goerdeler, another one of the Big Four consulting companies) seeks to develop a complex information platform including a dataset, a community and different visualisations for stakeholders in the field of CBRN-E protection and forensic work. The landscape mapping activities in the project—which is led by SFC—will enable KPMG and other partners to better understand the stakeholders and define a better engagement practice.

6.4.4 Sales Activity

Sales is the process of systematically generating revenue with the product (service) in the chosen market segment in the race for market leadership [22].

Sales professionals are responsible for developing and managing relationships with prospective customers, identifying their needs, and presenting solutions that meet those needs. Referring back to subsection on teams and importance of having team members with good network, this is especially true for sales professionals. Every start-up shall aim to hire a good sales professional in their field with an extensive network.

In the beginning, start-up sales are mostly about establishing a continuous feedback loop between the business model, product, and customer. Only later will sales be standardized and optimized. Some crucial elements of a sales strategy include targeting a niche market, constructing specific buyer personas, definition of metrics to track, consider what investors got promised when closing fundraising.

For forensic companies, the number of clients is relatively low, but usually they award large or long-term contracts, therefore every client has great importance, sales activities have to be planned and implemented with this ‘luxury car dealer’ or ‘private banker’ approach.

6.4.5 Branding

Branding is the process of giving meaning to a specific organization, company, product, or service by creating and shaping a brand in consumers’ minds. It is especially useful when the genre (type) of the product is distinctive enough to be unique or stand out from other products. For example, two glasses of mineral water look the same when poured out from two different bottles. When companies started to commercialize it, for example, by selling in glass and plastic bottles, they had to distinguish the water they bottled from the water bottled by the other company. This can happen by branding, a process of pairing appearance with emotional load.

A brand is a name, term, design, symbol, or any other feature that identifies one seller’s good or service as distinct from those of other sellers.Footnote 4

Branding relates to the emotions people feel when thinking about branded products or services of a company or an organisation; emotions are based on perception (e.g. “the shoe is lightweight”) and distinct emotional way (e.g. “the shoe makes me feel powerful”). Therefore, a brand is a combination of design and feeling.

Besides distinguishing own product from similar products, successful branding strategies are also adding to a company’s reputation. This asset can affect a range of people, from consumers to employees, investors, shareholders, providers, and distributors.Footnote 5 A good brand does not only motivate customers to buy the product but also motivates employees, shareholders and investors, raising support for the company [23]. Same is true for investors, if they feel connected to the brand or feel that their reputation increases by becoming investors of the brand, the fundraising will become easy.

In many cases, start-ups have brands before they have products. A start-up should start branding as early as possible. The branding process starts long before designing a logo or thinking of a name for the new business or product. Branding starts with knowing your customer. The start-up has to know its customers well enough to understand what purpose they have for the new offering and what role it will play in their lives [24].

6.4.6 External Factors

External factors are slightly different for the rest of the critical elements and their factors, as they cannot be influenced by the company itself. The effect of these factors can be positive (increase traction) or negative (decrease traction). In the classical SWOT analysis framework these are called opportunities (positive) and threats (negative). For example, the breakout of COVID-19 increased traction for medical supplies companies; the European Green Deal created traction for PV panel manufacturing and installation companies and the Russo-Ukrainian War created traction for defence companies. When the EU introduced GDPR, it decreased traction for EU-based data science companies and service providers. The Hungarian government’s discussions with the EU decrease traction for Hungary-based research and innovation service providers and EU plastics regulation decrease traction for plastic bottle manufacturers.

Start-ups have to cope with the impact of external factors either by pushing their growth to exploit the increasing traction or transform in order to avoid impact of a decrease in traction. The latter is very dangerous to start-ups in their pre-seed and seed phase, when usually they put up everything on one product—if an external factor decreases the traction for that product, the start-up is likely to crash.

6.4.7 Company Business Development

To convert traction into actual success, the business must grow together with the traction, and this has to be clearly demonstrated for investors. If this is not clearly planned and balanced with rest of traction elements, it can lead to spectacular failures and do great damage. A very simple example is when a webshop or other web service receives so many visitors that it collapses, or a factory receives so many product orders that they cannot deliver or only with significant delay. Both lead to a lot of disappointed customers and missed opportunities for an income. Same happens if customer service, helpdesk or product support become overburdened, call centers make people wait on the line for tens of minutes, chatbots run into loops with answers. On the other hand, this is the easiest way to acquire additional funding from investors, to show that additional funding is needed to keep pace with traction.

Business development entails tasks and processes to develop and implement growth opportunities within and between organizations. It is a subset of the fields of business, commerce, and organizational theory. Business development is the creation of long-term value for an organization from customers, markets, and relationships [25]. Business development can include many objectives, such as sales growth, business expansion, the formation of strategic partnerships, and increased profitability [26].

6.5 The Quintuple Helix Model of Innovation and Its Predecessors

The quintuple helix (5 × H) is a framework that describes university-industry-government-public-environment interactions within a knowledge economy. This model can be particularly important for start-ups as it provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the various actors and factors that can influence their success as well as to identify new opportunities for innovation and growth that are aligned with sustainable development goals. It was co-developed by Elias G. Carayannis and David F. J. Campbell and adds a fifth helix, the natural environment, to the quadruple helix model [27]. This model can be applied in an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary way to sustainable development. It adds as fifth helix the natural environment, more specifically socio-ecological interactions, meaning it can be applied in an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary way to sustainable development.

Socio-ecological interactions refer to the ways in which human society and the natural environment interact and affect one another. A social-ecological system consists of a bio-geo-physical unit and its associated social actors and institutions [28]. These systems are complex and adaptive and are delimited by spatial or functional boundaries surrounding particular ecosystems and their context problems [29]. An example of a socio-ecological interaction is a city in a river valley, where water flows and exact location within the drainage basin affect urban architecture from green spaces to sewer system, flood risk, water supply and their aggregated biomass production and carbon sequestration.

This approach stresses the necessary socio-ecological transition of society and economy in the twenty-first century; therefore, the quintuple helix is ecologically sensitive. Within this framework of, the natural environments of society and the economy also should be seen as drivers for knowledge production and innovation, therefore defining opportunities for the knowledge economy. Its predecessor was the quadruple helix model, which incorporates the public via the concept of a ‘media-based democracy’, which emphasizes that when the political system (government) is developing innovation policy to develop the economy, it must adequately communicate its innovation policy with the public and civil society via the media to obtain public support for new strategies or policies. This extended the triple helix model of innovation.

The triple helix model of innovation refers to a set of interactions between academia (the university), industry and government, to foster economic and social development. It was first theorized by Henry Etzkowitz and Loet Leydesdorff in the 1990s [30]. It has been widely adopted and has participated in the transformation of each sector. The initial role of universities is to provide education to individuals and basic research. The government plays an important role in regulating markets and fostering economic and social development [31]. The role of industry is to produce commercial goods and thus bringing innovation to the market. Industry builds upon the research provided by universities to produce these goods. Therefore, interactions between the three actors revolve initially around these elements. In a linear model of innovation, universities are supposed to provide the research which industry will build upon to produce commercial goods. The other interactions take place through the involvement of industry managers and university faculty in both sectors. According to Etzkowitz, the transfer of people between university and industry constitutes a very important transfer of knowledge. The framework describes the interactions between these three sectors and explains the emergence of new hybrid organizations such as technology transfer offices and science parks.

Technology Transfer Offices (TTOs), or Technology Licensing Offices (TLOs), are responsible for technology transfer and other aspects of the commercialization of research that takes place in a university [32]. TTOs engage in a variety of commercial activities that are meant to facilitate the process of bringing research developments to market, often acting as a channel between academia and industry [33]. Most major research universities have established TTOs in the past decades in an effort to increase the impact of university research and provide opportunities for financial gain [34].

A science park is a property-based development that accommodates and fosters the growth of tenant firms and that is affiliated with a university (or a government and private research bodies) based on proximity, ownership, and/or governance [35]. Science parks provide locations that foster innovation and the development and commercialisation of technology and where governments, universities and private companies may collaborate [36]. They can offer a number of shared resources, such as incubators, programs and collaboration activities, uninterruptible power supply, telecommunications hubs, reception and security, management offices, bank offices, convention centre, parking, and internal transportation.

Start-ups can benefit from the quintuple helix model in several ways. By understanding the interactions between university-industry-government-public-environment, start-ups can better navigate the complex landscape of innovation and entrepreneurship. It can help identify new opportunities for innovation and growth that are aligned with sustainable development goals, which became a key element in most of the accessible funding programs. By incorporating the natural environment as a fifth helix, start-ups can develop products and services that are ecologically sensitive and contribute to the socio-ecological transition of society and economy. Additionally, the quintuple helix model can help start-ups to build relationships and partnerships with key actors in the innovation ecosystem, such as universities, industry partners, government agencies, and civil society organizations. These relationships can provide start-ups with access to resources, knowledge, and networks that can support their growth and success, especially TTOs and science parks (incubators and accelerators).

For example, forensic start-ups focusing on crimes against natural environment (e.g. pollution, wild animal trafficking, poaching, indiscriminate logging, dumping in rivers) can benefit from uptake of the quintuple helix, as there is more societal pressure on policymakers, governments and industry to take more effective steps in protecting the environment.

6.6 Measurements of Readiness

Measurement of the (market) readiness of a start-up or a product is becoming increasingly complex as the environment has developed. In the traditional view the focus was solely on hardware development stages, nowadays technology can take many forms (software, hardware, process). Multiple models to measure readiness have been developed to follow the trends of the evolution of the helix, starting from pure technology-focused readiness measurements to complex, societal sensitive measurements. Detailed descriptions of stages for each type of readiness measurements are provided in Annex 2.

6.6.1 Technology Readiness Level (TRL)

The first of such model was originally developed by NASA and is called Technology Readiness Level (TRL), while in parallel the software development industry introduced a parallel model to measure stages of software development. By using TRL, organisations can assess the maturity of their technology at each stage of development and make informed decisions about when it is ready for deployment. The TRL has nine stages from observation of basic principles to an actual system proven in operation.

Advantage: using the TRL is that it allows a simple identification of technical progress.

Disadvantage: it does not provide information on other important aspects, for example user validation (traction) or capability to reach the next stage on time (team, time), therefore it is only useful for investors or funding authorities with deep knowledge in the market context and the status of the company.

6.6.2 Software Development Lifecycle

The software development lifecycle is similar to TRL and consists of four to seven stages, depending on size of the development. It starts with (pre)alpha and ends with release candidate (also called gamma or delta) or with end-of-lifecycle stage. The software development lifecycle is useful when developing a pure software-based solution, for example a digital forensic tool. In case a software is combined with a hardware (for example Holozcan, the holographic microscopy using image processingFootnote 6 developed in a Horizon 2020 project with Grant ID 101021723), the use of TRL for the software too is preferable to software development lifecycle.

Advantages: mature and widely known, industry-standard measurement for software readiness.

Disadvantages: it is only useable for software readiness.

6.6.3 Business Readiness Level (BRL)

Experience showed that high TRL products sometimes also failed on the market or start-ups having unique and ground-breaking high TRL technologies wrapped up before making any profit. When investigating, these experts concluded that there was an issue with the readiness of the team to do business and the fitting of the product to the market needs. Inspired by TRL and the Business Readiness Rate (BRR), an initiative of the open-source software development community, the Business Readiness Levels (BRL) were defined [37].

Business Readiness Level (BRL) is a concept that refers to the maturity of the business considerations developed alongside the technical development of an innovation. It is a valuable assessment tool for innovators seeking to establish a technology that is both financially viable and commercially feasible. The BRL scale is composed of nine levels, ranging from initial concept to fully embedded in the market. At each level, the BRL helps a start-up team or investor to understand where an innovation currently lies on the journey to creating real customer value and reducing the risk for the team.

Advantages: By using BRL, innovators can assess the maturity of their business proposition and measure progress in an objective manner.

Disadvantages: Business readiness is about the maturity of efforts in several different commercial functions, which can be misleading in case of ground-breaking technologies or disruptive business models.

There are programs which observe both TRL and BRL as criteria, for example the Horizon Europe EIC Accelerator program where an applicant has to demonstrate achievement of certain stages in both TRL and BRL (e.g., at least TRL6 and at least BRL6).

Two examples from companies supported by Székely Family and Co. Nonprofit incubator and accelerator:

Example 1: a new Total Ionisation Dosimeter developed by the start-up 27G-T to measure radiation dose absorbed by satellites in orbit can successfully represent its readiness by using TRL only. The company is operating on a narrow market with well-known customers and a steady price.

Example 2: the Narrowband IoT asset tracking device and connected services developed by General Mechatronics is sold to cell network operators, logistics companies and asset managers with many but yet unknown and unconverted customers on a market where competitors are also developing or offering competing products with different capabilities. In this case TRL is not enough to understand the value of this start-up, use of BRL is also needed to assess its chances to stand out from competition.

6.6.4 Social Readiness Level (SRL)

For many sustainable innovations, the traditional business approach poses a problem instead of being the solution. This is because moving to a more sustainable, innovative solution (e.g., new feedstock, materials of biological origin or bioprocess) inevitably competes with business-as-usual on cost and therefore will fall behind other, more conventional consumer product developments, when assessed on the BRL scale. If the customer does not recognize the value or need for a biobased solution, then commercial success and transformation will be limited. To gain traction, a product or service does not only need to provide a new or increased value, but the society also must be ready for it and needing it. In order to enable assessment of this kind of readiness, Murray, Caulier-Grice and Mulgan developed the Six Stages of Social Innovation in 2010 [38]. Adopting the six stages in parallel with TRL, the Innovation Fund Denmark defined Social Readiness Levels (SRL) in 2018, while TNO in The Netherlands devised Societal Embeddedness Levels (SEL) in 2020. For innovative solutions in forensics, the SRL is a very useful tool for measurement, as it describes otherwise hardly explainable values of an innovation like the societal benefits of more effective investigations.

Advantages: Detailed measurement, future-proof in the way that it responds well to the shifting of investor (funding) priorities towards sustainability and social transformation.

Disadvantages: There is no standard, widely accepted measurement method yet, different versions exist in parallel, and it also lacks post-conditional validation results.

6.6.5 Innovation Readiness Level (IRL)

Technology Readiness Level helps assessment of technological progress but does not  provide information on how the business aspects of bringing that product to the market are addressed. To close this gap, Innovation Readiness Level (IRL) scales have been developed [39]. The IRL is linked to a certain innovation to describe how it progresses towards the market with a similar 9-staged levelling set. The World Intellectual Property Organisation emphasises that this multi-dimensional approach is not universally agreed, integrating various business-related aspects to a TRL-similar simplified scale [40]. Each idea defines the nine stages differently and these stages are adopted to a different extent across sectors and funding programmes [41].

Advantages: Supports investors to determine the business maturity of an innovation.

Disadvantages: The IRL concept is not universally agreed, therefore it depends on the actual investors (funders) whether it is a good choice or not. Just as in the case of the helix model, the readiness measurement becomes more and more complex as new elements come into play for consideration. The need of models is dependent on the complexity of the product or service under development and its target market.

6.6.6 KTH Innovation Readiness LevelTM

The KTH Innovation Readiness LevelTM is a complete framework for guiding idea development and assessing idea status across key dimensions. Developed by the KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, it provides structure and support for idea owners as well as coaches and managers in the development of an early-stage idea to an innovation on the market [24].

The KTH Innovation Readiness LevelTM is based on a model originally developed by NASA called Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). The TRL model is a scale from one to nine, where one refers to a very early-stage idea or a research result that seems interesting, and nine means that the innovation is fully functioning and implemented on the market. KTH Innovation adapted this model to cover six areas that they identified as the most important to focus on for all types of new ideas: technology, customer, business, intellectual property, team and funding. This approach can be particularly valuable for start-ups, as it provides a structured way to guide their development from an early-stage idea to an innovation on the market. By assessing their status across key dimensions such as technology, customer, business, intellectual property, team and funding, start-ups can identify areas where they need to focus their efforts and resources to achieve success.

Overall, it provides start-ups with a clear overview of all six areas that are important for their success and help founders figure out what their next step is, breaking down an ongoing and complex journey into smaller steps and help in selecting the actual focus (or sprint objective).

For example, if a start-up is strong in technology but weak in customer development, the framework can help them to identify this gap and focus their efforts on building relationships with potential customers. Similarly, if a start-up has a strong team but lacks funding, the framework can help them to identify this gap and focus their efforts on securing the resources they need.

Using this framework to guide their development, start-ups can increase their chances of achieving success by balancing their opportunities coming from the three critical factors of success. It also supports assessment of the start-up or the product for both founders and investors, creating a benchmark across different sectors.

6.7 Conclusion

The chapter discusses the three critical elements of start-up success: time, team, and traction, referred as the 3Ts. These elements are essential for start-ups to achieve their goals and maximize their profits. As such, the chapter aims to help practitioners and researchers in forensic science with an initial guide to bring their innovations to the market. In particular, it provides examples and insights from the forensic science market, where start-ups face specific challenges and opportunities. The chapter also features the context to the use of the three elements by relating them to different types of readiness levels and the quintuple helix model of research and innovation policy for sustainability.

Start-ups should:

  • Be aware of the time constraints and opportunities they face and plan accordingly.

  • Build a strong and diverse team that covers all the necessary skills and competencies for their business.

  • Demonstrate traction by showing evidence of customer demand and market potential for their product or service.

  • Choose from different types of readiness levels to assess their progress and identify areas for improvement, according to the complexity of their technology and the customer segment.

  • Adopt a quintuple helix approach to research and innovation policy for sustainability that involves collaboration among academia, industry, government, civil society, and natural environment.

By following these suggestions, start-ups in the forensic science market can increase their chances of success and create value for themselves and society.