London Playbook PM: All vs All again in Westminster

18 mins read

May 14, 2024 6:02 pm CET

Good afternoon.

TUESDAY CHEAT SHEET

— The Belfast court ruling on the Rwanda plan sparked a fresh round of Westminster wrangling.

— Ministers summoned the Chinese ambassador over espionage concerns, and insisted Britain won’t call on Ukraine to cede ground in its war with Russia.

— Oliver Dowden had a quiet word with the Saudis regarding the latest accusations about the kingdom breaching human rights.

— Keir Starmer and the trade unions appear to still be friends following a marathon meeting about the so-called “New Deal for Working People.”

— Scoop: Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell insists he followed all data rules when filming constituents signing a details-harvesting petition.

**A message from bp: bp is working to bring more lower carbon energy to the UK – like working to develop offshore wind with our partner EnBW. And, we’re keeping oil & gas flowing to help meet today’s energy needs. And, not or – that’s our approach. See how bp is backing Britain.**

TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

IT’S ALL VS ALL AGAIN IN WESTMINSTER: Tensions are ramping up over the latest rupture to the small boats plan that risks pitting Rishi Sunak against the DUP, the Rwanda deal against the Good Friday Agreement and the U.K. against the EU.

Yet another constitutional crisis: During a bad-tempered urgent question in the Commons this afternoon, the government insisted the Belfast High Court was wrong to rule this week that the proposal to deport illegal migrant arrivals to Rwanda would breach European Convention on Human Rights provisions in the Good Friday Agreement as well as the post-Brexit Windsor Framework deal.

The argument: “We do not accept that the Good Friday agreement should be read so creatively as to extend to matters such as tackling illegal migration, which is a U.K-wide issue and not in any way related to the original intention of the Good Friday Agreement,” Illegal Immigration Minister Tom Pursglove told MPs. He insisted migration policy is a reserved matter and therefore the preserve of the Westminster government to apply uniformly across the U.K. Downing Street echoed the line this afternoon.

The problem is … the Belfast court disagrees. And former parliament legal adviser Alex Horne (not the bloke from Taskmaster) explains in this useful Spectator article the provisions in the Windsor Framework — the deal Sunak brokered to smooth post-Brexit trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland — trump other domestic laws.

Wait for it: There’s a fair chance we won’t know what the higher courts think until after the first flight to Rwanda has taken off. Downing Street insisted this afternoon it won’t be waiting for its planned appeal to the Belfast ruling to conclude. The government reckons it can’t actually appeal formally until the court makes its final order in a couple of weeks.

Seizing on it: In the Commons, the anti-EU (and often anti-Rishi Sunak) league on the Conservative backbenches was salivating about the row. Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman said the Belfast ruling showed “Northern Ireland is effectively to be treated as part of the European Union” under the terms of the Windsor Framework. Braverman said the deal had “fundamentally failed upon its first contact with reality.” Other hardline Brexiteers were similarly scathing.

Told you so: The DUP is of course also outraged. Leader Gavin Robinson told the Commons: “When my colleagues and I raised these concerns here in parliament, we were told by the government we were wrong, yet the High Court in Belfast said yesterday that we were right.” Ouch.

Something to look forward to: Foreign Secretary David Cameron is preparing to meet Eurocrats at the latest Withdrawal Agreement committee meeting in Brussels Thursday, set up to chat all things Brexit after Brexit. Team Cameron this afternoon played down the prospect of the issue being raised — despite the possible implications if Europe agrees with the Belfast court that going through with the Rwanda plan would breach the Windsor Framework and Good Friday Agreement.

Not expecting it to be raised? Irish Finance Minister Michael McGrath said Dublin was concerned the court ruling would increase the flow of migrants to the Republic via Northern Ireland, my POLITICO colleague Shawn Pogatchnik writes in. During a visit to Brussels for a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers he said a ban on deporting asylum seekers in Northern Ireland would make it more attractive for migrants who would inevitably drift across the open border.

That sound you can hear is … diplomatic pressure, after the U.K. refused to do anything last month about asylum seekers fleeing into Ireland across the open border

And where is Labour in all this? Mostly elsewhere, it would appear. Home Secretary James Cleverly tweeted this afternoon to note zero backbenchers turned up for the Commons session on the issue. Shadow Immigration Minister Stephen Kinnock however told the House Labour was “utterly committed to upholding both the Good Friday agreement and the Windsor Framework in all their dimensions” and would “never have gone down the Rwanda rabbit hole.”

SPEAKING OF MIGRATION: The independent migration watchdog found there was no widespread evidence the post-study visa for international students is being abused — after the government asked it to investigate the matter. The Migration Advisory Committee also said in its report that scrapping the visa route would hit university incomes. MAC chair Brian Bell explained his findings to Radio 4’s World at One and is appearing at the Home Affairs Committee tomorrow. Downing Street said the government would consider the report.

But but but: In a detailed Substack post, Conservative former minister and data wonk Neil O’Brien argued the graduate visa route is being used as “a loophole into low wage work.”

MEANWHILE, IN WAR …

LATEST CHINESE BEEF: The government summoned Chinese Ambo Zheng Zeguang this morning after three people were charged in Britain with assisting Hong Kong’s intelligence service. “The FCDO was unequivocal in setting out that the recent pattern of behavior directed by China against the U.K. including cyberattacks, reports of espionage links and the issuing of bounties is not acceptable,” a Foreign Office spokesperson said. Full writeup from POLITICO’s Noah Keate here.

More Chinese beef: It came as Britain’s top cyber spy told a conference the security services “devote more resource to China than any other single mission.” Anne Keast-Butler, director of GCHQ, said responding to China was the spy agency’s “top priority” because the Asian giant poses an (approved line klaxon) “epoch-defining challenge.” My Tech Pro U.K. colleague Tom Bristow was at the event in Birmingham and has a full writeup here.

IN OTHER ENEMIES NEWS: Defense Secretary Grant Shapps appeared to pour cold water on the Sunday Times report at the weekend that Foreign Secretary David Cameron told Donald Trump he could broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia if he wins the upcoming U.S. election. “There is just no sense at all in which Britain would try to persuade, strong-arm or otherwise, Ukraine into accepting giving up some of their territory, Shapps told Times Radio this morning. He added to the BBC: “We should stand behind them fully in order to eject Russia from all of their territory.”

Bear in mind: It’s stronger than what Rishi Sunak and Downing Street were saying yesterday. More on that here.

On the ground in Ukraine: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured Volodymyr Zelenskyy military aid is “now on its way” during his surprise visit to Kyiv, telling the Ukrainian president the weapons will “make a real difference” against Russia. It comes as Ukraine continues to struggle holding back a major Russian incursion in Kharkiv. The BBC has a liveblog.

AND NOW ONTO OUR ALLIES: Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden had a quiet word with the Saudis in Riyadh about claims the kingdom is killing villagers opposed to the clearance of land for a new £400 billion desert city. “No aspect of our relationship prevents us from speaking frankly about these sorts of issues,” a spokesperson for Rishi Sunak told reporters this afternoon, confirming Dowden brought the issue up in bilateral meetings during the trade trip. The government is assessing a U.N. report into the matter.

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DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

LABOUR LAND: In the past hour Labour and the unions released a statement following their crunch meeting about the wording of workers’ rights policies the opposition plans to promise at the election. “Labour and the affiliated unions had a constructive discussion today,” the statement read. “Together we have reiterated Labour’s full commitment to the New Deal for Working People as agreed in July. We will continue to work together at pace on how a Labour government would implement it in legislation.” Wait for the leaks.

Elsewhere in Labour land: Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar made clear he would not have welcomed right-wing-Conservative-MP-until-a-few-minutes-ago Natalie Elphicke into his ranks. “She certainly wouldn’t have been a Scottish Labour candidate, I can be really clear about that,” he told Good Morning Scotland. The Telegraph has a full writeup.

TUCKWELL REELED IN: After his team long refused to disclose whether he told constituents filmed signing a petition about fish and chips that their data would be used for other campaign spam, Playbook PM managed to collar Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell on the estate last night. After apologizing for making repeated fun of his farcical claim to be campaigning for a fish and chip shop in Uxbridge town center (after voting against a proposal for one while on the council) Playbook PM asked if the constituents on video were indeed informed of how their data would be used.

This matters because … “if a political party asks you to complete a survey or a petition, they should be clear how that data will be used in the future,” the Information Commissioner’s Office said in response to the Tuckwell video when it emerged back in March. “In many cases, it will not be appropriate for a party or candidate who has collected information for a specific petition or survey to repurpose that information for political campaigning.”

Nothing to see here: Tuckwell was jovial about the whole matter and insisted the form in the video included the same disclosures as the online version making clear constituents will also be added to Tuckwell mailing lists and be spammed about other issues. He said he had no choice but to be clear about the Ts & Cs because “the CCHQ police” were watching over him.

Considering this simple question answered … for now: Without the footage or the forms themselves, Playook PM has little choice but to give Tuckwell the benefit of the doubt — unless some other evidence turns up.

IS THAT THE LINE I: Defense Secretary Grant Shapps was this morning still defending the defeated government plan to ban MPs from parliament only if charged with a violent or sexual offense rather than if arrested. The Commons ruling last night that an arrest is grounds for a ban is now in force, and at the noon briefing for hacks a spokesperson for Rishi Sunak refused to be drawn on the PM’s personal view now it has been decided.

Nevertheless … Shapps told Times Radio the decision “does seem to be just on the wrong side of natural justice.”

For those who like dark humor … Sky has leaked WhatsApps from Conservative MPs after the vote last night on banning wrong’uns from the estate.

IS THAT THE LINE II: Also on Times Radio, Shapps was withering about his colleague Esther McVey’s announcement about banning LGBT+ lanyards in the civil service. “Personally, I don’t mind people expressing their views on these things,” he said about the ban. “What lanyard somebody wears doesn’t particularly concern me,” although he did agree with the so-called “minister for common sense” that Whitehall staff should be “getting on with the main job.” That’s more generous than the Conservative MP who told Playbook PM the plan was “f***ing stupid and pointless.” Downing Street said the PM supports McVey in her work.

Wait for it: A written statement containing the equalities guidance McVey was announcing is still to appear. But it won’t contain the lanyard rules, as that was kinda McVey freestyling.

RUH ROH: The proportion of people who trust the government is down a quarter since the 2019 election, according to the U.K. stats watchdog. More details here.

SPINNERS CHARTER: Wages have risen faster than inflation for 10 months running, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt declared in relation to new stats out this morning, while Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Alison McGovern pointed to a rise in unemployment.

SLAPP DOWN: Lords communications committee Chair Tina Stowell wrote to Justice Secretary Alex Chalk to argue the bill aimed at preventing the powerful silencing hacks in court isn’t good enough.

THE HARDEST WORD: Northern Ireland’s First Minister Michelle O’Neill apologized for attending the funeral of IRA figure Bobby Storey in 2020, telling the Covid-19 inquiry in Belfast “I am sorry for going and I’m sorry for the harm that’s been caused.” She admitted attending the 1,800-person gathering when funerals were limited to 30 people “damaged the public health messaging,” after previously defending the move.

COMING ATTRACTIONS: Former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is set for a grilling from the Scottish Affairs Committee on July 1.

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

THE DEATH OF SATIRE: Former Defense Committee Chair Tobias Ellwood might have learnt the importance of checking before you tweet the hard way when he posted a snap of Russia’s new Defense Minister Andrey Belousov complete with a uniform of medals. Except Belousov’s head had in fact been photoshopped onto the body of a character from 2017 flick “The Death of Stalin.” Paging Armando Iannucci …

I was kidding around, of course: Ellwood told the Telegraph the post was intentional because it was “tongue in cheek.” But he also deleted it after getting a community note.

A STORY MADE FOR SOCIAL MEDIA: A bloke who looks like Rishi Sunak was egged and has in the past faced verbal abuse and been drenched with water for resembling the PM, Christian Calgie from the Express reports.

AROUND THE WORLD

IN FRANCE: French police launched a manhunt after two prison officers were killed and three others seriously injured by gunmen who attacked a prison van in Normandy, freeing an inmate named as “gang boss” Mohamed Amra. The Telegraph has a video of the moment “France’s most wanted man” was sprung.

MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israeli forces have killed or injured at least 31 aid workers in strikes on convoys or buildings used by humanitarian organizations since the start of the war in Gaza, the Human Rights Watch campaign group said — via the Times. Foreign Secretary David Cameron called the extremist attacks on aid convoys “appalling,” adding he would raise his concerns with the Israeli government.

IN GEORGIA: Georgian MPs approved controversial plans to brand hundreds of NGOs and media outlets as foreign agents by 84 votes to 30 despite widespread protests and growing EU and U.S. condemnation — my colleague Gabriel Gavin has further details. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps told Sky: “Putin cannot help but meddle … we do condemn that influence and we very much encourage people to resist that influence from Russia.”

IN AMERICA: U.S. President Joe Biden announced a 100 percent tariff on Chinese made electric vehicles as part of a package of measures designed to protect American manufacturing from cheap imports — the Guardian has a writeup.

**A message from bp: We’re investing in today’s energy system and helping to build out tomorrow’s while we do. And, not or – that’s our approach. While today we’re mostly in oil and gas, we increased the proportion of our global annual investment that went into our lower carbon & other transition businesses from around 3% in 2019 to around 23% in 2023. bp.com/AndNotOr.**

TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on weight loss injections reducing the risk of heart attacks … BBC News at Six focuses on the prisoner escape in France … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) is live in Tbilisi after protests over a controversial law.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Generation Rent Chief Executive Ben Twomey (5.05 p.m.) … Migration Advisory Committee Chair Brian Bell (5.35 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Brian Bell (5.35 p.m.) … former Chief of the General Staff Richard Dannatt (6.35 p.m.) … Women and Equalities Committee Chair Caroline Nokes (6.45 p.m.).

The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Welsh Secretary David TC Davies.

Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Anglia Ruskin University academic Simon Cork.

Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Save British Farming Founder Liz Webster … Independent Higher Education Chief Executive Alex Proudfoot.

Cross Question with Ali Miraj (LBC, 8 p.m.): Former Tory MP Jessica Harrington … former Downing Street adviser Samuel Kasumu … Playbook’s own Stefan Boscia.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Neil Henderson.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Deltapoll’s Joe Twyman and journalist Owen Bennett Jones … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Observer’s Sonia Sodha and journalist Theo Usherwood

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

PROBS WON’T BE TOO WILD: Former PM Theresa May delivers a lecture about democracy at the Hansard Society, from 7 p.m.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The Public Accounts Committee publishes a report into value from investment in big projects.

HANGING WITH THE HEADCHOPPERS: Deputy PM Oliver Dowden and co. continue their trade delegation to Saudi Arabia.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Green heating for public buildings.

BRING YOUR MAC: Migration Advisory Committee chair Brian Bell appears at the Home Affairs Select Committee from 9.30 a.m. following his report about student visas.

PANDEMIC DIARIES: It’s former First Minister of Northern Ireland Arlene Foster’s turn before the Covid-19 inquiry, from 10 a.m.

IN THE COMMONS: MPs sit from 11.30 a.m. with women and equalities questions followed by PMQs and the report stage of the Criminal Justice Bill.

DARK LORD SPEAKS: New Labour grandee Peter Mandelson speaks at a Britain Renewed conference at the Olympic Park from 11.35 a.m.

SPENDING REVIEW: Treasury Permanent Secretary James Bowler appears at the Public Accounts Committee from 1.30 p.m. to discuss government accounts.

BRING YOUR OWN CAKE: Rishi Sunak, Isaac Levido and Richard Holden host their second briefing for Conservative MPs about whether the Tories have a chance of winning the election. From 2 p.m. in Downing Street.

IN THE LORDS: Following questions, which start at 3 p.m, peers debate the second reading of the Renters Reform Bill.

RWANDA OUR AFTERNOON: Illegal Migration Minister Michael Tomlinson appears before the Joint Committee on Human Rights from 3 p.m.

NEW LISA LIFE: Shadow International Development Secretary Lisa Nandy speaks at a U.K. in a Changing Europe event from 7 p.m.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Cheeseburger with chili relish; harissa tempeh stuffed filo cigar with apricot, sultana and walnut flavored giant couscous and avocado dip; satay chicken and vegetable stir fry with rice and toasted peanuts … The Debate: Chinese pork belly bap with Asian salad; smoked haddock fishcake with sweet potato wedges and tartare sauce; miso sesame aubergine and smoky tofu with spring onion, brown rice and maple soya sauce … Terrace Cafeteria: Chicken parmo (yaaass); cod, salmon and haddock fish pie; leek pudding with roast celeriac wedges, and balsamic shallots … River Restaurant: Pesto penne with butternut squash, pine kernel and rocket salad and garlic bread; roast gammon with all the trimmings; Tandoori coley with vegetable biryani, raita, curry sauce and poppadom.

NOW HIRING: The Tony Blair Institute is looking for a new comms chief after Rachel Yeomans announced her departure. Details of the role here.

BEST WISHES TO: GB News Pol Ed Chris Hope, who lost his dad a fortnight ago. Here’s his tweet back on Downing Street.

CONGRATS TO: City AM Political Reporter Jessica Frank-Keyes, who has been nominated for a rising star award. Deets here.

BEST OF LUCK TO: BBC presenter Emma Barnett, who starts on the Radio 4 Today program tomorrow morning, and so will become an even more regular voice in the ears of SW1 inhabitants. Her tweet here.

SIMPLE QUESTIONS PLAYBOOK PM CAN’T GET ANSWERS TO: When will Rishi Sunak fill his vacant anti-corruption adviser role? … When will Boris Johnson start producing his own GB News content?

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Labour Together Director Josh Simons in the New Statesman on how Starmerism isn’t at war with Blairism.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On May 14 1264 rebel English baron Simon de Montfort led allies to defeat Henry III at the Battle of Lewes, resulting in the signing of the Mise of Lewis.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.