The Budget's biggest loser: The one Aussie state set to be worse off

Australia's most populous state will be $1.9billion worse off next financial year due to a larger-than-forecast drop in GST payments announced in the Budget.

The proportion NSW will receive of the federal tax on goods and services is one of the few areas where Treasurer Jim Chalmers has reduced spending, and comes despite an expected 500,000 new migrants moving to the state over the next four years.

The GST distribution represented 23 per cent of the state's revenue last financial year, and the reduction represents the state's biggest single-year drop in GST funds since the tax was introduced in 2000. 

Budget papers from last year show NSW had been set to receive 29.1 per cent of the GST revenue, or $27.7billion, in 2024-25 but that has been revised downward in Tuesday's Federal Budget to 27.5 per cent, or $25.8billion.

NSW Premier Chris Minns has demanded the Treasurer give an explanation.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his third Federal Budget on Tuesday night

Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his third Federal Budget on Tuesday night

The portion NSW will receive of the federally collected tax on goods and services is one of the only areas where Treasurer Jim Chalmers has reduced spending, despite an expected 500,000 new migrants moving to the state over the next four years (stock image)

The portion NSW will receive of the federally collected tax on goods and services is one of the only areas where Treasurer Jim Chalmers has reduced spending, despite an expected 500,000 new migrants moving to the state over the next four years (stock image)

Mr Minns has called for the tax to be rationed out on a per capita basis instead of the current way, which is based advice from the grants commission using a formula intended to provide each state with roughly the same level of public services. 

'We've made it clear that a per capita split on the GST is the only fair way of ensuring that states like NSW can grow,' he said.

'I didn't expect the budget to change that, but I'm hopeful that as the federal government has listened to us on Western Sydney infrastructure, we can make some headway on some of these other pressing issues.'

Elsewhere in the Budget, the Albanese government did provide a boost for NSW by reinstating some infrastructure projects that were cancelled last year.

About $900million will be spent on road projects around the new Western Sydney Airport - $500million for the Mamre Road stage 2 upgrade and $400million for Elizabeth Drive. 

In other infrastructure funding, $112million will be provided to extend the M1 Pacific Motorway to Raymond Terrace.

The Western Sydney Airport will get an extra $300million for operating costs and a Circular Quay Renewal Program will get $220million.

There will also be $2million provided to improve Wifi and mobile connectivity along the train route between Wyong and Hornsby. 

And a whopping $55million has been allocated to planning for a high speed rail between Newcastle and Sydney but that amount will deliver no actual infrastructure.

NSW Premier Chris Minns (pictured with wife Anna) is fuming after the federal Budget revealed NSW will take a $1.9billion hit in GST revenue next financial year

NSW Premier Chris Minns (pictured with wife Anna) is fuming after the federal Budget revealed NSW will take a $1.9billion hit in GST revenue next financial year

Government run schools in NSW will also get $110million funding increase from the previous financial year, which is well short of the $800million the NSW government said was needed.

Delivering a surplus of $9.3bn in his third Budget on Tuesday night, Dr Chalmers said the government's cost-of-living relief handouts would not increase inflation; something many economists challenge.

The relief measures includes a surprise $300 energy rebate for all families, and the government's promised revised Stage 3 tax cuts.

However this year's budget contained little for welfare recipients calling for increased payments, or motorists facing growing fuel prices.

Dr Chalmers said the budget was freezing the cost of medicines, supporting low-income renters, making student loans fairer and helping pensioners by freezing the deeming rate.

The government's revamped stage 3 tax cuts will deliver an average benefit of $1888 a year - $36 a week - from July 1 for all 13.6 million taxpayers.

'For 84 per cent of taxpayers, and 90 per cent of women, (that's) a bigger tax cut than they would have under the previous government,' Dr Chalmers said. 

The 2024-25 budget also forecasts inflation to hit the target 2-3 per cent by Christmas, down from 3.45 per cent now.

That's much faster than the Reserve Bank's expectations released last week, which did not take in the budget measures.

It is designed to produce an interest rate cut before the next federal election, due by next May.

However many critics of the Budget fear its measures will only stoke inflation and risk an upward move in rates or at least a lengthy delay before any reduction.