Russia’s war economy takes the front seat

With help from Nahal Toosi, Paul McLeary, Alex Ward and Lara Seligman

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Ukraine and several experts say Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s appointment of an economist to the Kremlin’s top military position is a worrisome sign that Moscow is preparing for a years-long war.

Economist ANDREI BELOUSOV will replace SERGEI SHOIGU, who has served as the head of Russia’s military for a dozen years. That’s part of a major shakeup in Putin’s cabinet following his inauguration, with the intelligence chief also being dismissed and a loyal technocrat reappointed as head of government.

Belousov will be helpful with solving some of Moscow’s major problems, such as balancing troops and workers, CNA’s DMITRY GORENBURG told NatSec Daily. If Russia sends too many people to the front, they might have problems with the defense industry, and vice versa. That connects to macroeconomic issues, like keeping inflation down and being prepared for more Western sanctions.

“The economic and the warfighting are becoming increasingly interrelated, and this appointment is part of a recognition of that,” Gorenburg said. “They’re trying to ameliorate potential impacts” of the war on Russia’s economy.

The personnel changes aren’t necessarily an admission of failure by the Kremlin on its war efforts, the Council on Foreign Relations’ LIANA FIX told NatSec Daily. Rather, the changes — particularly Belousov’s appointment — show that Putin is trying to make his country’s war effort more efficient, innovative and technology-driven. Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV hinted at such advancements while explaining the personnel changes: “Whoever is more open to innovation is the one who is victorious on the battlefield.”

Belousov’s new job also suggests that Putin needed someone with a strong financial background to manage upcoming long-term rearmament plans and better handle high levels of defense spending and investment in the defense industry, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s DARA MASSICOT told NatSec Daily.

Shoigu will likely remain an influential player in Russia’s war, as Putin appointed him as secretary of Russia’s Security Council, a body that advises the Kremlin leader on military and strategic issues.

Meanwhile, Kyiv believes the move shows Moscow may be “preparing for a protracted war,” according to a Ukrainian document setting out talking points for government officials today, obtained by NatSec Daily.

That assessment comes at a bad time for Ukraine. Russia is advancing in the northeastern region of Kharkiv, where thousands of residents have evacuated in recent days. President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY warned “fierce battles” were being fought in the region and villages were being turned into combat zones. Ukraine is struggling on air defense too, shooting down about 46 percent of Russian missiles — down from 73 percent in the six months prior, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

The U.S. should be concerned, Fix added, because the appointment shows that Putin isn’t waiting for the results of the U.S. elections to position his country for future fighting. There has been speculation that if DONALD TRUMP wins office, Putin may try to favorably negotiate an end to the war.

The moves dash “hopes for quick negotiated outcomes,” she said. “These changes are unfortunately more reason for pessimism than optimism.”

Read: Ukraine faces decisive battle as Russian forces surge by our own JAMIE DETTMER

The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BLINKEN TO UKRAINE: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will travel to Ukraine this week, three people familiar with the matter told your anchor, NAHAL TOOSI and PAUL McLEARY.

The exact itinerary was not immediately available, but one of the people said the roads in Kyiv will be blocked by security services for a while on Tuesday and Wednesday. The people were granted anonymity to preview plans that haven’t been made public.

The State Department didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment. And, as always, such plans are tentative.

NO ‘TOTAL VICTORY’: A top U.S. official said the Biden administration doesn’t believe Israel’s current strategy against the Hamas militant group will lead to “total victory,” your anchor and ALEX WARD report.

Speaking at the NATO Youth Summit in Miami today, Deputy Secretary of State KURT CAMPBELL said the U.S. has been “struggling over what the theory of victory is” in Gaza.

“Sometimes when we listen closely to Israeli leaders, they talked about mostly the idea of some sort of sweeping victory on the battlefield, total victory,” Campbell said. “I don’t think we believe that that is likely or possible.”

It’s the most blunt articulation yet from a Biden administration official that Israel may not be able to achieve the full victory over Hamas that it has promised in Gaza. U.S. officials have previously warned that Israel can’t defeat Hamas’ ideology.

Israel has pledged to continue its military operation in Gaza until Hamas is defeated, in what Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has described as “absolute victory.”

Many countries want to see a “political solution in which the rights of Palestinians are more respected,” Campbell added. “I don’t think it’s ever been more difficult than right now, but I still believe that the commitment is there.”

Meanwhile, Israeli forces intensified military operations on the northern and southern ends of Gaza today, in what Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI described as some of the most intense fighting in weeks.

Today, a day after Israel announced the opening of the Western Erez Crossing in northern Gaza, 38 trucks carrying flour arrived through it, said ABEER ETEFA, a spokesperson for the U.N.’s World Food Program, per The Associated Press’ WAFAA SHURAFA, JOSEPH KRAUSS and SAMY MAGDY. No other food has entered through the two other main crossings in southern Gaza in the last week, however.

The Palestinian death toll in Gaza has now reached over 35,000 in seven months due to Israel’s sprawling military operation, according to Palestinian authorities.

NIGER WITHDRAWAL: A Defense Department-led delegation is leaving this week for Niger to meet with junta leaders to “set the terms” for the planned U.S. troop withdrawal from the country, Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters this morning, our own LARA SELIGMAN writes in.

These meetings were supposed to happen the week of April 24, Singh said they were delayed. As Lara scooped last week, almost a year after the Nigerien military overthrew the country’s government last August, the Pentagon has finally given the order for all American combat troops to depart.

BIG BROTHER IN GAZA: Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR has overseen a secret police force in Gaza for years, surveilling civilians and building files on young people, journalists and those who questioned the government.

That’s according to intelligence officials and internal documents reviewed by The New York Times’ ADAM RASGON and RONEN BERGMAN, detailing how the unit known as the General Security Service used informants to report on their neighbors, flag people who attended protests that criticize Hamas, and “followed people to determine if they were carrying on romantic relationships outside marriage.”

Palestinians living in Gaza are aware that Hamas keeps a close eye on their activities, but the documents show the extent to which the group wouldn’t tolerate dissent even as it claims to represent the people in the territory.

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ELECTION 2024

NO MAJOR SHIFT: Montenegro’s president said he’s “not really expecting” a major shift in the U.S. role in NATO, even if a certain Republican wins the 2024 election, Alex writes in.

Montenegro and all of Europe have already seen former President DONALD TRUMP in the Oval office, JAKOV MILATOVIĆ noted on the sidelines of the NATO Youth Summit in Miami, and the U.S. remained in the alliance during that administration. If anything, Trump placed more focus on more defense spending “that has been proven to be a good decision, especially now given the new geopolitical circumstances in Europe,” Milatović said.

“There’s going to be a strong NATO alliance even if Trump wins the election, as there was a strong NATO alliance when President Trump was president the first time.”

Milatović flew to Miami to meet with young people and NATO officials before flying to Washington to speak with lawmakers. During a speech on the conference stage, the 37-year-old addressed his nation’s push to be the European Union’s 28th member by 2028 –– ”sexy symbolism,” he moments later told NatSec Daily.

Having joined NATO in 2017, Milatović –– the youngest head of state of a NATO member –– says he and a new generation of Montenegrin leaders are committed to seeing the small Balkans nation further join the West.

Ensuring NATO stays strong and intact is therefore vital to Montenegro’s future planning. With the historically troubled region still teetering, Milatović hopes his nation contributing to NATO and acceding to the EU will help “make the Balkans a boring region again.”

Writing in Foreign Affairs today, HANS BINNENDIJK and R. D. HOOKER, JR., former senior directors on the National Security Council, and ALEXANDER VERSHBOW, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and Russia, struck a different note than Milatović.

“Former U.S. officials who worked closely with Trump on NATO during his tenure, including one of us (Hooker), are convinced he will withdraw from the alliance if he is reelected,” they write. “If he reaches the White House in 2025, the guardrails will be off.”

Read: UK’s Cameron pitched radical Ukraine peace deal to Trump by our own ANDREW McDONALD

Keystrokes

EU WATCHDOG HACKED: The European Union’s agency tasked with fighting cybercriminals suffered a hack of its own, our own ANTOANETA ROUSSI reports (for Pros!).

EU law enforcement agency Europol suffered a recent data breach in which hackers infiltrated internal platforms, it confirmed to our colleague. The hackers posted data on an online forum popular with cybercriminal groups and said they sold data, some of which they claimed were classified records.

The group that infiltrated the platforms, IntelBroker, is a cybercriminal group known for stealing sensitive data that is thought to be behind recent hacks of General Electric and stolen sensitive military files belonging to the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

Read: Timeline: Europe under cyber siege in 2024 by our own SEB STARCEVIC

The Complex

PIER STILL DELAYED: The temporary pier the U.S. military has built to expand the humanitarian aid going into Gaza is still floating off the Port of Ashdod, Israel, almost a week after the Pentagon announced it was complete, Lara also writes in.

DOD is still waiting for calmer seas to move the floating pier to Gaza, where the Israelis will anchor it to the beach, Singh said today. Construction of the pier was temporarily halted on May 3 due to bad weather, after which the partially constructed pier was moved to the Port of Ashdod so service members could safely complete the job.

DRONE WARS: A group of 11 House Republicans wants the Pentagon to send small, American-made drones to Ukraine to supplant the proliferation of Chinese-manufactured systems, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) scoop.

In a letter sent today to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, spearheaded by Rep. ROB WITTMAN (R-Va.), the lawmakers say that Ukraine consumes around 10,000 small drones per month on the frontlines, most of which are made by a Chinese company. The group suggests using a portion of the $13.8 billion that Congress passed in April for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.

On the Hill

MURPHY’S LAW: Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), one of Biden’s staunchest and most powerful congressional allies, blasted the administration today for not going further in its report on whether Israel has violated international humanitarian law.

In a report released Friday evening — not a news dump! — the State Department said “it is reasonable to assess” that Israel used American-provided weapons in ways that are “inconsistent” with international humanitarian law. But the report doesn’t explicitly say that Israel has violated U.S. or international law, and was viewed by many politicians as letting Israel off the hook.

“I’m disappointed that ultimately the administration failed to take a position in many cases and make the difficult determinations required,” said Murphy, chair of Senat Foreign Relations subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and counterterrorism, in a statement.

In recent weeks, Israel has increased the amount of aid allowed to flow into Gaza, he said, though “the aid has once again virtually stopped flowing … I believe this report should have gone further.”

On a different note, Murphy said Sunday that it’s probably a good thing that Biden’s actions toward Israel have drawn anger from both the left and the right.

DEFENSE POLICY SEASON: The House Armed Services Committee released its version of the fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act ahead of a markup next week.

Broadsides

ANOTHER RESIGNATION: An Army officer assigned to the Defense Intelligence Agency became the latest U.S. official to publicly resign in protest of U.S. policy toward Israel.

In a LinkedIn post today, Maj. HARRISON MANN said the U.S. had “enabled and empowered” the killing of Palestinian civilians. According to his profile, Mann specialized in the Middle East and Africa for part of his 13-year career and previously served at the U.S. Embassy in Tunis. He resigned in November.

ARRESTED IN GEORGIA: Two Americans were among 20 people detained at protests in Tbilisi as lawmakers there debated a “foreign agents” bill that has caused a political crisis and global denunciation, Reuters reports.

Over the weekend, several thousand protesters supporting Georgia’s opposition staged an all-night demonstration outside parliament, in hopes of stopping lawmakers from entering the building today. The lawmakers were able to enter the building, and the legislation was approved within a minute by the judiciary committee.

Lawmakers are expected to debate and approve the bill — which would require NGOs and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as agents of foreign influence — as early as Tuesday.

Transitions

— NASA named DAVID SALVAGNINI as the space agency’s new chief artificial intelligence officer. The role expands on Salvagnini’s current role as chief data officer.

What to Read

— Sen. JONI ERNST, Fox News: Israel needs our support. We must demand Biden keep his ‘ironclad’ commitment

— GEORGE BARROS, Institute for the Study of War: Putin’s safe space: defeating Russia’s Kharkiv operation requires eliminating Russia’s sanctuary

— FRANCIS FUKUYAMA, American Purpose: Save Georgia’s democracy

Tomorrow Today

— United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan

— Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: The defining partnership of the 21st century: U.S.-India relations

— Government Executive Media Group, 2 p.m.: Securing our nation: insights from DHS

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Operations in the Red Sea: Lessons for surface warfare

— Government Executive Media Group, 2 p.m.: Capitalizing on cyber capabilities: a dispatch from Modern Day Marine 2024

— Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: Mexico After ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR

— Washington Post Live, 4 p.m.: Navigating the new era of artificial intelligence innovation

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, we hope is part of a future POLITICO reshuffle.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who should take her job.

Correction: Friday’s edition of NatSec Daily misstated ties between the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.