There’s been recent and constant debate about the Texans’ stellar quarterback C.J. Stroud and if he belongs among the top five of the NFL’s elite at the position.
Stroud had a stellar rookie season in which he won Offensive Rookie of the Year and finished with the third-most passing yards (4,108) and third-highest pass rating (100.8) of any rookie in NFL history. Stroud also set the record for the most consecutive pass attempts to start a career without an interception (192).
He also led Houston to the AFC South title and a playoff win over the Browns in the wild card round.
But is that enough to warrant a top-5 ranking? There are different metrics that each party uses when putting together their list. The consensus appears to be at least top-10 for Stroud. NFL.com's Nick Shook slotted Stroud at No. 8, while Pro Football Network's Dakota Randall believes Stroud is the seventh-best. CBS Sports' Cody Benjamin, meanwhile, picked Stroud as the fifth-best quarterback.
In this exercise, I'll use age, contract, potency as a passer, postseason success, upside and projected health to determine a different quarterback ranking.
Is C.J. Stroud already a top-5 NFL QB?
Without further ado, here are the top five NFL quarterbacks based on a two-year projection:
- Patrick Mahomes
- C.J. Stroud
- Joe Burrow
- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson
If you were to draft from the current NFL quarterbacks with the intent of winning a Super Bowl in the next two years with their contract and health concerns in mind, then they should be selected in the above order.
The point of the game is to win a championship. Everything else is just stats, status and money. The AFC currently has the top five or six quarterbacks in the NFL to achieve the ultimate feat.
Patrick Mahomes
There’s no need to wax poetically with Mahomes. He’s gone to four Super Bowls in the past five years where he won three and faced Tom Brady and the Bucs in his one loss. Mahomes is under contract until 2031 and will continue to be a yearly favorite for the foreseeable future. He’s worth every bit of his contract.
Mahomes has gone 15-3 in the playoffs with two losses to Brady and one to Joe Burrow and the Bengals. In the last six seasons he’s missed four games and averaged passing for around 4,700 yards on 66.5% completions with 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
C.J. Stroud
Stroud is the dream scenario — a quarterback who shows stellar play in Year 1 on a rookie contract. As a rookie, he accomplished something that only Joe Montana (1989) and Brady (2007) have achieved when he led the league in passing yards per game (273.9) and touchdown-interception ratio (4.60). Brady and Montana did so as veterans. Stroud accomplished it as a rookie and became the youngest to ever lead both categories. Stroud has his entire career to do so again and become the only player to achieve it twice.
In his first year of action, he set several rookie records including the most passing yards in a game (470), passing touchdowns in a game (5) and most games with 350 passing yards (3).
At a minimum, Stroud will play the next two seasons on a rookie contract, allowing the Texans to build up the most competitive roster around him. Stroud will get the continuity of not only playing in Year 2 under head coach DeMeco Ryans but also for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and quarterback coach Jerrod Johnson. Slowik and Johnson each drew outside interest for promotions before Houston retained them for another season.
Stroud also has continuity with tight end Dalton Schultz and receiver Noah Brown after the Texans re-signed the former Cowboys duo. Receivers Nico Collins, Tank Dell, John Metchie III, Robert Woods, Steven Sims and Xavier Hutchinson played with Stroud in 2023 and are back for their second year.
The additions via trades for receivers Stefon Diggs and Ben Skowronek along with running back Joe Mixon amps up the firepower with well-calculated new weapons to prevent a Year 2 decline. Behind Schultz and Mixon, the Texans added running back Jawhar Jordan and tight end Cade Stover. Houston also added talented and needed depth at the tackle position with Blake Fisher's selection in the second draft round.
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There are no holes in the Texans' offense and they’ve improved in every area in talent and/or depth. Stroud won a playoff game against the Browns as a rookie before falling to the Ravens. Houston wasn’t expected to be a playoff team last year. Now, they have the proper firepower to compete with the best teams.
If you’re drafting among all of the quarterbacks in the NFL for the next two years and with their potential and contracts factored into the equation of winning a championship, it’d be hard to call another name after Mahomes other than Stroud.
Joe Burrow
Burrow is a tough one when you factor in the return from torn ligaments in his wrist. If it wasn’t for the injury, the case could be made for him to top Stroud on this list. Burrow is the only active quarterback in the NFL to beat Mahomes in the playoffs. Mahomes is 14-0 against every other NFL quarterback not named Brady or Burrow.
Burrow missed 15 games over the past four years, though. During that span, he’s completed 68% of his passes for an average per year of close to 3,500 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He has a 5-2 playoff record with a Super Bowl appearance which he lost to the Rams 23-20. He’s 1-1 against Mahomes with two games decided by a field goal in Kansas City. He’s also gone to Buffalo and beat Josh Allen and the Bills by 17 points in the playoffs.
In the playoffs, Burrow has gone 2-0 at home, 3-1 on the road and one loss at a neutral site in the Super Bowl. The injury and how quickly he gets back to his old ways will be key.
Receiver Tyler Boyd and running back Joe Mixon have departed since this past year. The positions saw new additions with rookie third-rounder receiver Jermaine Burton and veteran running back Zack Moss. The tight end positions see Mike Gesicki come over from New England and two talented rookies added in the draft with Erick All Jr. and Tanner McLachlan.
Receiver Tee Higgins has asked to be traded and currently is under the franchise tag with the Bengals. Burton may be tasked with stepping into a bigger role as would Trenton Irwin and Andrei Iosivas if things can’t be mended in Cincinnati with Higgins. Burton has first-round talent but slid in the draft due to character concerns.
The injury concern and possible departure of Higgins gives pause for caution but as the only player who’s proven that he can beat Mahomes, even in his house in the playoffs, he’d be too much to pass on among all of the remaining quarterbacks in this exercise.
Lamar Jackson
Jackson is ultra-talented, as seen in his two MVP seasons in 2019 and 2023. He’s coming off of a career-high completion percentage of 67.2% as well. Over the past five seasons, Jackson averaged a 65% completion rate and 2,900 yards passing for 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s a weapon as a runner, averaging 145 carries for 913 rush yards and five touchdowns over that same five-year span.
Jackson beat Stroud to start and end the Texans’ season this past year. In that regard, he maybe should be higher up the list. When taking into account the ultimate goal of winning a title and all variables, Stroud is the better selection for the two-year window we’re accessing.
The injury history, lack of postseason success and thriving more as a rusher all knock Jackson down the list. Stroud is an ascending talent on a value contract. Despite coming off of his second MVP season, Jackson hasn’t surpassed his play as a passer from his first MVP season back in 2019.
Since passing for 36 touchdowns and putting up a six-to-one touchdown-interception rate with only six interceptions, he’s gone on to average only 21 passing touchdowns over the past four years with an average of nine interceptions.
He’s still dynamic as a rusher but even that declined by almost 400 yards, two touchdowns and 1.4 ypc in 2023 from his career-highs in 2019. His completion percentage was up 1.1%, passing yards up 551 yards and pass attempts up by 56 for 2023 compared to 2019.
He’s a plateaued talent that despite the win versus the Texans and a rookie Stroud in Baltimore, he’s still struggled in the playoffs. Outside of the Texans' win in 2023, Jackson is 1-4 in the playoffs in his career. His other career win was against the Titans. Jackson has lost to the Titans, Chargers, Bills and Chiefs in the playoffs.
The matchup doesn't matter, Jackson runs into a wall in the playoffs. The playoffs and even more so the Super Bowl are far different than the regular season. Quarterbacks that thrive on frequent mobility struggle to find consistent playoff success to the degree of it ending with a title.
If drafting and the top three are gone, Jackson would be the selection based on talent and giving most rosters a shot. The added element of running back Derrick Henry makes Jackson’s versatility all the more enticing. It’ll make for a tough weekly matchup for opponents but will it be enough to sustain success throughout the playoffs?
Josh Allen
Allen averaged a 65.5% completion rate for 4,400 yards, 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions over the past four years. Like Jackson, Allen is a rushing threat with an average of 114 carries for 596 yards and nine rushing touchdowns over his past five years.
Allen doesn’t have the same injury concerns as Jackson or Burrow as he’s only missed one game over the past five seasons. In 2023 his passing stats declined while his rushing touchdowns shot up to 15 despite having close to 240 rushing yards less compared to his previous two seasons. Allen still hovered around 4,300 passing yards like he had in the previous three years but his passing touchdowns dropped by about seven and his interceptions went up by around five.
In the playoffs, Allen has gone 5-5 with three losses to the Chiefs, one to the Bengals and one to the Texans. He started his career at home in the playoffs 4-0 before dropping two of the last three in Buffalo to end the past two seasons. Allen has gone 0-3 on the road in the playoffs.
Allen has had yearly shots over the last half decade and he’s just seen his team have to close the past window in hopes of opening a new one. The departures of receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis have led to the additions of Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman. Running back James Cook, their 2023 second-round pick, gets a new talented, backfield mate in fourth-round selection Ray Davis.
Allen still has a talented offense with tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox making for a talented 12-personnel that could limit receiver usage. Coleman will have a big role but it is hard to ask him to replace Diggs in Year 1. Samuel is a decline from Davis at the position with the running back group seeing a boost.
It feels as if Allen may have had some of his best shots in each of the last five seasons. If drafting from the remaining quarterbacks, his dual-threat talent makes most teams a contender but like with Jackson, mobile quarterbacks typically hit their ceiling in the playoffs.
SB QB winners last 40 years
- Patrick Mahomes (3)
- Matthew Stafford
- Tom Brady (7)
- Nick Foles
- Peyton Manning (2)
- Russell Wilson
- Joe Flacco
- Eli Manning(2)
- Aaron Rodgers
- Drew Brees
- Ben Roethlisberger (2)
- Brad Johnson
- Trent Dilfer
- Kurt Warner
- John Elway (2)
- Brett Favre
- Troy Aikman (3)
- Steve Young
- Mark Rypien
- Jeff Hostetler
- Joe Montana (4)
- Doug Williams
- Phil Simms
- Jim McMahon
- Jim Plunkett (2)
Missed the cut
- Aaron Rodgers
- Jordan Love
- Jalen Hurts
- Justin Herbert
- Brock Purdy
It’s hard to not include Rodgers in the top five. Over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, he totaled 85 touchdowns and nine interceptions and completed just shy of 70% of his 1,057 passes. The following year he completed 64.6% of his passes and threw 26 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. The 12 interceptions were just one shy of the 13 he totaled over the three prior seasons when he went 13-3 each year. Rodgers had one pass attempt last year before his injury. He’s proven he can get it done but in a year that will end with him turning 41 years old, you have to wonder if there’s enough left to get past the onslaught of AFC quarterbacks 10-15 years younger.
Love would be the darling of the NFL more than he currently is if it wasn’t for Stroud’s rookie-season performance. Love threw for 4,159 yards on a 64.2% completion rate for 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He rushed 50 times for 247 yards and four touchdowns. Love drew two teams that tied for the best record in the NFC in the Cowboys and 49ers in the playoffs. He went into Dallas and threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns on a 76.2% completion rate while knocking off the Cowboys 48-32. He fell a field goal shy in San Francisco.
Hurts has rushed for an average of over 700 yards with 13 touchdowns over the last three seasons. As a passer in 2023, he threw 78 more passes than the year prior and totaled one more touchdown pass at 23. However, his 15 interceptions last year matched the 15 total from the two seasons prior. Hurts has gone 0-2 on the road in the playoffs, 0-1 in a neutral-site Super Bowl and 2-0 at home. He came just a field goal shy of beating Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Now, with running back Saquon Barkley behind him, his rushing touchdowns may decline but his chance to get over the hump increased. Hurts has the potential to get back and win a Super Bowl as a dual-threat quarterback but will need to improve his touchdown-interception efficiency as he has an all-star cast at the skill positions and is protected behind a talented offensive line, even after the departure of center Jason Kelce.
Herbert has thrown for a tremendous amount of yards. After throwing 69 touchdowns and 25 interceptions in his first two seasons in 32 games, he’s thrown only 45 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in his past two years in 30 games of action. His career record is 30-32 with his best seasons being a 9-8 2021 campaign followed by a 10-7 season before dropping back to 5-8 last year.
Now, Herbert goes into the season with new weapons, head coach and scheme. Receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone, so too is running back Austin Ekeler and tight end Gerald Everett. Herbert’s weapons will be rookie receivers Ladd McConkey and Brenden Rice along with last year’s first-round pick Quentin Johnston, 2021 third-round selection Josh Palmer and DJ Chark. Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst step in at tight end with J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal at running back. Year 1 should have its struggles due to all of the changeover and lack of top-end talent in the offense.
Purdy has put up good stats and even played in a Super Bowl. He has an embarrassment of riches surrounding him in offensive weapons. As a rookie, he took a hot regular season into his first playoff game and beat the Seahawks as he had three touchdown passes. He throw three touchdowns and one interception in his past five playoff matches. What Purdy did in the 2023 regular season and playoffs was similar to what Jimmy Garoppolo did with the 49ers in 2019 with fewer weapons. The 49ers went 13-3 with Garoppolo completing 69.1% of his regular season passes for 27 touchdowns, 13 interceptions for 4,000 yards. Last year, San Francisco went 12-5 in the regular season with Purdy completing 69.4% of his passes for 31 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and 4,300 yards. In the playoffs, each of them won two home games and then lost to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Purdy shouldn’t be picked over the top names already listed.