Bristol vs Saracens Prediction: Bears’ hot streak to continue

Saracens travel to Ashton Gate on Saturday (ITV, 15:05) in an attempt to contain the Bears, but there’s every chance they’ll break out of the cage. 

With only two matches in the season left, it’s crunch time for both Bristol and Saracens as they both try to lock in their playoff spots. And with Exeter playing Harlequins a few hours after this game, there is no room for error in Bristol today. Saracens currently sit in fourth position and Bristol are right at their heels in fifth place, only two points behind – so plenty at stake today!

Bristol are on a hot streak, winning their last six Premiership games and as a result, have made a late surge towards the playoffs. Pat Lam will be reiterating to his side that if they are not able to win their last two games, their recent run will be redundant. Bristol left it very late in their last game, but found three consecutive tries to beat Leicester at Welford Road – I’m sure Lam will be hoping for a less nerve-wracking performance today!

With how Bristol have been playing recently – especially at Ashton Gate – Saracens will do extremely well to contain this Bristol side to under 30 points.

Saracens come off a hard fought victory against Bath at the Rec, but face a very different challenge today. They have an extremely strong side out, with a bench to match so they will certainly be aiming to lean on their ample experience of knockout rugby to get the win today. Although I expect Saracens to attempt a strategy of pressure and plenty of kicking again this week, I believe Bristol will be able to counteract that better than Bath managed.

Bristol vs Saracens Odds

Bristol are 13/10 to take the victory here, while Saracens are at the shorter price of 4/6. The draw can be backed at 22/1.

Team News

Bristol

Pat Lam has retained his strongest side, only making one change to the starting side that played Leicester 2 weeks ago. Genge, Oghre and the soon departing Sinckler are the front-row trio again, with Dun and Batley partnering in the second-row. The loose forwards will be Luatua, Harding and Bradbury. Watch out for Thacker to make another impact off the bench once he’s introduced in the second half.

The live wire Randall retains the 9 shirt, with American international MacGinty outside him at fly-half. Arguably the Premiership’s most underrated center pair of Williams and Janse van Rensburg will partner up in the midfield once again. It will be Ibitoye and Naulago out in the wide channels and the only change coming at full-back with Malins returning to face his former club.

Saracens

Saracens are also fully loaded here. Vuniploa, George and Riccioni combine in an impressive front-row, with Itoje and Tizard in behind them – with McFarland waiting in the wings to make an impact from the bench. Gonzalez, Earl and Willis complete the pack – with Billy Vunipola settling for a bench spot after his recent antics in Majorca.

Van Zyl and Farrell are retained as the half-back pairing again, with Tompkins and Cinti in the midfield too. Parton has been in fine try scoring form so he keeps his spot on the left-wing, with Segun on the right-wing. Daly will be at full-back with Goode on the bench.

Bet reasoning

Bristol will be pleased that the forecast today is warm and dry, setting them up to play their Harlem globetrotter, all-out attack game plan. In their last 3 matches at Ashton gate, they have scored an average of 64 points per game – which is quite frankly insane. I’m not expecting the Saracens defence to give the Bristol danger men much time on the ball today, however containing Bristol when they are in the mood, is no easy feat.

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