Climate Change and Food Security in the Philippines: Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Change Action

Abstract

The climate emergency poses significant challenges to the agriculture sector which directly affects Philippine food security and economic growth. Climate change disrupts crop productivity, affecting domestic agricultural production and the development of agriculture as an industry. This situation coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic may result in food scarcity, hunger, and intensified poverty in the Philippines. Filipino farmers must rethink their ways of doing and integrate climate change in decision-making because “business as usual” is no longer an option. This chapter presents a brief review of the status of Philippine agriculture and its contribution to the national economy, an analysis of the profile of Filipino farmers relevant to climate and agriculture, and a discussion on how agricultural systems are connected and how they are influenced by the dynamics between the upland ecosystems (forests and watershed) and the downstream ecosystems (coastal and marine). This chapter deals with the multiple knowledge systems as sources of different climate change adaptation approaches and explores a holistic framework for managing climate risks to agricultural systems in the Philippines to ensure the well-being of Filipino farmers and society in general.

FormalPara Key Points

• The climate emergency threatens our farmers, our agriculture sector, and our economy. Climate change can result in substantial and further disruption in crop productivity affecting domestic agricultural production, the development of agriculture as an industry, and food security.

• Food security is measured not only in terms of availability of food products, but also access to affordable and safe food and utilization of sufficient and nutritious food.

• Adapting to impacts of a changing climate requires a holistic view of the role of ecosystems in reducing risks. Fortifying our watersheds, conserving our biodiversity resources, and protecting our coastal and marine ecosystems can secure water resources for irrigation, protect cultivated lands from sedimentation, and diversify food sources for common Filipinos.

• Forward-looking, risk-based agricultural planning is needed for climate adaptation to be effective.

FormalPara Summary for Policymakers

Climate variability and extreme events threaten our agriculture and food security. Food security is measured not only in terms of availability of food products, but also access to affordable and safe food and utilization of sufficient and nutritious food.

• Agriculture is still the backbone of Philippine economy that can propel the transformation of our long-term economic growth as a nation.

• Climate change can result in substantial and further disruption in crop productivity and can affect domestic agricultural production, the development of agriculture as an industry, and food security in the long term.

Consistent with farmers’ accounts on costs of disaster to agriculture and fisheries, it is estimated that damage cost to agriculture was about 37.2 billion pesos in 2018 alone (DA 2019). Various studies have also noted the adverse impacts of climate change on crop production using crop models and a general decline in crop production using climate scenarios in different time periods, 2030–2050.

• With increasing population of the country (annual growth rate at 1.14% in 2018) and base population at 100 million in 2015, we are looking at increasing domestic food demand. While we can complement our regular supply with imports, this policy of dependence is precarious since climate change impacts are global.

• For annuals like rice and corn, increased fertilization associated with temperature increases can result in increased yield. However, if the temperature threshold is reached particularly during specific growth stages, “the increased fertilization effect is negated” (Belder et al. 2005).

Economy-wide climate change may result in increase in prices of commodities like cereals (24%), fruits and vegetables (12.7%), meat (4.4%), sugar (7.5%), and roots and tubers (5.8%), based on modeling studies.

Below are some related results of studies on impacts of increase in temperature on crops in the tropics:

• Increase of 1 °C leads to about 8–14% decrease in rice yield during the dry season (Lansigan et al. 2007a).

• Increase at 2 °C mean air temperature could decrease rice yield by 5–12% (IPCC 2007).

• Increase up to 4 °C and CO₂ to about 350 ppm concentration can potentially reduce yield of maize by 30%; but at 700 ppm CO₂, yield can increase by 9% (Sahoo 1999).

• Temperature rise by 0.5–1.5 °C could reduce maize yield potentially by 2–5% (Aggarwal and Mall 2002).

• Increase in the minimum surface temperature in Los Baños and other areas in the Philippines led to a reduced rice yield (Lansigan 2007a).

Economy-wide climate change may result in increase in prices of commodities like cereals (24%), fruits and vegetables (12.7%), meat (4.4%), sugar (7.5%), and roots and tubers (5.8%), based on modeling studies (Rosegrant et al. 2016).

• The projected increase in consumer prices, especially cereals, will adversely impact prices of other food products like pork, beef, and chicken—major protein source of the country.

• Corn is the major ingredient of livestock feeds. While these increases in consumer prices seem positive for agriculture sector, this condition will not ensure that the economic condition of the farmers will improve.

Adapting to impacts of a changing climate requires a holistic view of the role of ecosystems in reducing risks to climate changes. A landscape approach to food security is our best bet. Fortifying our watersheds, conserving our biodiversity resources, and protecting our coastal and marine ecosystems can secure water resources for irrigation, protect cultivated lands from sedimentation, and diversify food sources for common Filipinos.

• For perennials, preliminary observations show that prolonged dry season resulted in observed increase in the yield of lanzones, mangoes, and rambutan. Studies to ascertain responses of major fruit crops to increases in temperature, changes in weather patterns, uncertain onset of rainy reasons, and prolonged dry and wet seasons are wanting and need to be examined closer to come up with better management strategies.

• For coconuts, impacts are not immediate but there is decreased production after extended period of drought, which can result in water stress during the stage of flowering and filling of the nuts (Comiso et al. 2014).

• In general, reports that the condition of agriculture sector, particularly smallholder farmers, would be worse under different climate scenarios.

• Pest outbreaks can be serious as in the case of cocolisap that had damaged coconut farms in the country and was associated to prolonged drought. The impact of infestation was considered monumental as 25 million Filipinos rely upon the industry, 3.5 million of whom are coconut farmers.

Because of the high vulnerability and risks faced by the agriculture sector to climatic impacts, the need to approach the future can be done through a risk-based adaptation planning in order to meet the country’s goals. Risk-based adaptation planning is rooted in the concept that impacts of climate change are widespread and responses to the risks should be systematically organized.

• Included in risk-based adaptation is risk transfer mechanism. Risk transfer involves the transference of risk or burden of financial loss to another party. For agriculture, this is crop insurance. Lansigan (2014) noted that science-based assessment of vulnerability and risks is imperative and is a sound basis for developing weather-based crop insurance suitable in the Philippine context.

• Integration of traditional knowledge and practices coupled with advances in science and technology to improve monitoring, forecasting, crop advisories, and practice can help build early warning systems for our farmers. There are already systems available to do this locally (e.g., Project SARAI of DOST-PCAARRD).

• The projected damage of climate change impacts on agriculture is huge. Estimates of damage costs from modeling studies have reached up to about 145 billion pesos per year until 2050 (Rosegrant et al. 2016).

Integration of traditional knowledge and practices coupled with advances in science and technology to improve monitoring, forecasting, crop advisories and practice can help build early warning systems for our farmers.

While adaptation planning at the national level is imperative, place-based vulnerability and risks due to changing precipitation patterns, increasing temperature, and increasing and/or intensifying extreme climate events coupled with continuous environmental resources degradation need to be examined at the local level. Within the frame of landscape approach, vulnerability and risks analysis of local areas is imperative as basis for a risk-based strategic adaptation plan to ensure food security for the country.

1 Introduction

Climate change has undeniably been a major hazard and threat to the sustainability of agriculture production as well as to the well-being of Filipino farmers in the recent times. While there are many disparate factors affecting the conditions of farmers, climate change impacts such as extreme events like droughts, extreme rainfall causing massive flooding, changes in seasonality of precipitation, and increasing temperature exacerbate the socio-economic and political constraints that confront the sector and its stakeholders, especially the farmers. Coupled with what farmers have already experienced in the recent past, various studies have already noted out the adverse impacts of climate change on crop production (Lansigan et al. 2007b; Dait 2013; Comiso et al. 2014; Rosegrant et al. 2019). These studies consistently showed a general decline in crop production using different climate scenarios in different time periods, 2030–2050. With increasing population of the country (annual growth rate at 1.14% in 2018) and base population at 100 million in 2015, we are looking at increasing domestic food demand. While we complement our regular supply with imports, this policy of dependence is precarious. Climate change impacts are global and have also been wreaking havoc in crop production in developing countries like Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam, our main sources of rice imports. Hence, significant efforts must be done to protect our ability to produce food for domestic demand.

For the Philippine agriculture sector and the Filipino farmers, business as usual is not an option. Adapting to impacts of a changing climate requires re-evaluating the conventional approach to agricultural development including policy directions; traditional knowledge and practices of Filipino farmers; and the potentials of advances in science and technology to improve monitoring, forecasting, and crop advisories and practice.

The road to transforming agricultural systems in the Philippines, including transforming Filipino farmers’ mindsets, is not a simple task. It requires a multidimensional understanding of the climate change context, the socio-economic context, policies, and institutions. With climate change, uncertainties in crop production are increasing risks of crop failures. Pushing science and technologies, and other extension services from research institutes and different agencies to a traditionally crippled agriculture sector can assist. More importantly, managing climate change impacts on agricultural systems requires a consideration of the interconnectivity of the ecosystems—from the watershed to the marine environment. This system’s perspective is commonly known as ridge-to-reef approach, or landscape-seascape connectivity (Cruz and Bantayan 2011; Cruz-Trinidad et al. 2014). The complex interconnections of the various ecosystems in a landscape have been more complicated because of the archipelagic nature of the country. Major watersheds and larger island provinces straddle different administrative jurisdictions and this condition requires intricately linked management regimes—for which we are wanting up to the present.

This chapter aims to present four main concerns: (a) contribution of agriculture to the overall Philippine economy and its critical role in the survival and welfare of Philippine society; (b) the effects of climate change on agriculture, particularly on crop production; (c) potential adaptation strategies; and (d) consideration for general plan of action that mainstream climate change impacts.

1.1 Contribution of Agriculture in Philippine Economy

The first question we need to answer in the discourse on agriculture sustainability and climate change is this: How can the agriculture sector provide for the needs of the growing population of the country with climate change? Agriculture has been the traditional backbone of Philippine economy since the country earned its independence in 1945 and even before that. It has provided for the needs of the population in the past. With industrialization, urbanization, and increasing exodus of Filipinos from the farm to the cities, what is the future of agriculture in the country, given the changing climate? What could be our future?

To date, agriculture only accounts for measly 8% of the Philippines’ domestic gross product (GDP), 57 percent (57%) of which is from the crop sub-sector (PSA 2019). Figure 5.1 shows the GDP from 2008 to 2018, which illustrates the gradual decline of the sector’s contribution to the economy over a 10-year period (2008–2018) (PSA 2019). Service sector appears to be the major contributor to the country’s GDP. In spite of this state, agriculture sector employs about 24 percent (24%) or about 10 million of the country’s population (PSA 2018 cited by DA 2019). Among the agricultural sectors, crop production sub-sector exhibited the lowest growth in terms of GVA (gross value added) while livestock remains to be the strongest (Table 5.1). This may not be surprising because big private sector is the main player in the livestock industry while small and medium farmers, with a few large companies, are in the crop production. This lends crop production more vulnerable to climate extremes while big livestock companies have the capital to adjust their production system to cope with changes in climate. For example, advanced technologies and climate information are easily accessible to big poultry and livestock farms while small farmers remain to be business as usual. The decline in the growth rate of the agriculture sector may be attributed to climate change impacts.

Fig. 5.1

Contribution of agriculture in the national economy (PSA 2019)

Table 5.1 Contribution of each sector of agriculture in the overall output (PSA 2019)

DA (2019) reported that in 2017, damage due to typhoons has amounted to 8.2 billion pesos and damage has tremendously increased to 37.2 billion pesos in 2018. This translates to a 354 percent (354%) increase in damage between 2017 and 2018 alone (PSA 2019). Damages from Ondoy and Peping in 2009 had been estimated to amount to 206 billion pesos or about 1.8 percent (1.8%) of the country’s GDP of that period while Super Typhoon Yolanda which devastated Leyte and other provinces on its path amounted to 571 billion pesos (Ravago et al. 2019). They added that the impacts of the climatic changes necessitate that the State should ensure that agricultural insurance are available to farmers. It is now evident that farmers’ experience of weather events has actually been changing. This situation without full understanding renders this sector more vulnerable to changes in the frequency, duration, strength, and timing of rainfall. Hence, the need for more reliable weather information to supplement their memory and indigenous knowledge and practices and for them to be able to adapt is now gradually recognized by local stakeholders—farmers, cooperatives, and the local government units.

1.2 Profile of Filipino Farmers

A brief survey of national statistics noted that in 2015 approximately 11 million comprised the agricultural workers. They are mostly concentrated in rural areas (85%) in 2015. Of the total agricultural workers, 29.8 percent (29.8%) are wage earners and the rest are unpaid family labor and self-employed or about 70 percent (70%). It is unsettling to note the aging of the farming population with an average age of 57. Less and less young people are opting to go to agriculture.

Men and women are both active in farming, with varied responsibilities. Study conducted by Bordey et al. (2016) among Filipino rice farmers of major rice-producing area in the country noted that profiles of farmers can influence their capacity to manage their farms and how they deal with different stressors. Rice farming in this particular study showed that generally more men (87%) are engaged in rice farming than women. While poverty incidence grips about 25.2 percent (25.2%) of the total population (PSA 2019), the agriculture or the rural sector, which is estimated to comprise more than half of the total population of the country, the agriculture sector, concentrated in the rural areas, accounts two-thirds of poverty (Ravago et al. 2019).

In the study of poverty incidence in selected years from 1991 to 2015 (Ravago et al. 2019), it was evident that there was no significant reduction of poverty by regions. The National Capital Region has the lowest (3.9% share in 2015) followed by Region 4B (9.1% in 2015). Most of the regions continue to record double-digit poverty incidence. For instance, ARMM has a poverty incidence of 53.7 percent (53.7%) in 2015, now part of the Bangsa Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao or BARMM (Table 5.2). It is frustrating to note that while the country has reported economic growth, albeit small but steadily (4.7% in the average), poverty remains high, particularly in the rural areas. This is the main reason for the exodus of farm workers to the cities, which is spiraling the problems of crowding, degradation of social services, and vulnerable population in the urban areas.

Table 5.2 The impact of climate change on consumer prices of major agricultural commodities in % increase (Rosegrant et al. 2016)

With changing climate, the question becomes double edged: can agriculture be an engine to reduce poverty?

2 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

Managing the climate change impacts on agricultural systems requires a consideration of the interconnectivity of the ecosystems—from the watershed to the marine environment. This system’s perspective is commonly known as ridge-to-reef approach, or landscape-seascape connectivity (Cruz and Bantayan 2011). The complex interconnections of the various ecosystems in a landscape have been more complicated because of the archipelagic nature of the country. Major watersheds and larger island provinces straddle different administrative jurisdictions and require closer and intricately linked management regimes—for which we are wanting up to the present.

The impacts of a warming world on Philippine agricultural systems can be most profound. The deforestation of watersheds, land requirements for growing urban centers, and increasing needs for food supplies and industrial development of the country have summarily resulted to increased sedimentation of the rivers and pollution of waterways which eventually end up in the coastal and mangrove areas and marine ecosystems. Mangrove areas have also been converted to fishponds and coastal aquaculture. The impacts of these environmental degradation in the country can exacerbate the impacts of climate change. The expected heavy precipitation on open and degraded lands in the uplands can translate to tons of top soils being eroded to the waterways and into the marine environment. This can lead to massive coral bleaching or the destruction of the known habitat and basis of rich fisheries of the country. The extreme events like droughts which are projected to occur more frequently in several areas can damage crop production due to insufficient irrigation water available, resulting from insufficient water supply from dams and rivers (Comiso et al. 2014), and poor and ill-managed irrigation facilities. For instance, typhoons and habagat or monsoon rains have caused massive floods both in terms of extent of area covered and duration of exposure, which resulted in agriculture damage amounting to about 37 billion pesos in 2017–2018 alone (DA Brief, ECCP Symposium August 2019), over 300 percent (300%) increase in damage from previous years.

Another example of the flood damages in rice-producing areas as a result of typhoon Ineng in 2019 is shown in Fig. 5.2. In 2018, NDRRMC reported crop losses of 8.96 billion pesos to rice and 4.49 billion pesos to corn due to typhoon Ompong (International name Mangkhut) alone.

Fig. 5.2

Before and after typhoon Ineng (August 20 and August 23, respectively), Paoay, Ilocos Norte showing an estimated flooded rice area of 1223 ha (Project SARAI Enhanced Agriculture Monitoring Systems or SEAMS, 2019)

2.1 Impacts on Agricultural Production

Crop productivity is dependent on climate. While degradation of natural resource base continued to adversely affect crop productivity, climate change impacts can be exaggerated and extensive. Temperature and other climatic attributes can significantly influence physiological productivity of major crops in the country. One of the well-studied crop is rice. Tibig (2001, cf: Comiso et al. 2014) noted that “changes in the onset of the rainy season, and the increase in nighttime temperatures… could significantly influence …overall productivity of farming system”. Historically, gross value added or the difference between gross outputs and the intermediate outputs has the lowest dip during the most severe drought in the history of Philippine rice agriculture, 1998 El Nino. Decrease in the GVA is also noted in the El Nino events of 1972–1973, 1982–1983, and 1997–1998 (Comiso et al. 2014). The warm events’ impact on corn is less compared with rice, as threshold for corn in terms of water availability is lower compared with rice (100 mm cumulated soil moisture versus 200 mm cumulative for rice), and so is with temperature (and associated ambient CO₂ concentration).

For annuals like rice and corn, increased carbon fertilization associated with temperature increase can result in increased yield. However, if the temperature threshold is reached particularly during specific growth stages, “the increased fertilization effect is negated” (Peng et al. 2005). His team noted that for every 1 °C increase in growing season night time temperature, a corresponding 10 percent (10%) decrease is expected. Lansigan et al. (2007a) corroborated to include the effects of 8 to 14 percent (8–14%) yield reduction depending on location. Below are some related results of studies on impacts of increase in temperature on crops in the tropics:

• Increase of 1 °C leads to about 8 to 14 percent (8–14%) decrease in rice yield during the dry season (Lansigan et al. 2007a).

• Increase at 2 °C mean air temperature could decrease rice yield by 5 to 12 percent (5–12%) (IPCC 2007).

• Increase up to 4 °C and CO₂ to about 350 ppm concentration can potentially reduce yield of maize by 30 percent (30%), but at 700 ppm CO₂, yield can increase by 9 percent (9%) (Sahoo 1999).

• Temperature rise by 0.5 to 1.5 °C could reduce maize yield potential by 2 to 5 percent (2–5%) (Aggarwal and Mall 2002).

• Increase in the minimum surface temperature in Los Banos and other areas in the Philippines led to a reduced rice yield (Lansigan 2009).

While these scientific studies, particularly from Sahoo (1999) and Aggarwal and Mall (2002), may be criticized to have been conducted in different environmental conditions and have not yet yielded a gross estimate of agriculture damage and losses due to climatic changes specific in the Philippines, it is evident that the rise in temperature by 1.5 °C could translate to a reduction in rice yield of a maximum of 14 percent (14%) per ha, excluding potential damages to pest which could be serious. Lansigan (2009) noted that in Los Banos and other areas in the Philippines, increase in the minimum surface temperature led to a reduced rice yield. For corn, the effect of temperature increase varies. For a 0.5–1.5 °C increase, potential yield can be reduced by 2 to 5 percent (2–5%) (Aggarwal and Mall 2002), but findings by Sahoo (1999) showed that for an increase of up to 4 degree centigrade at 700 ppm CO₂, yield can increase by 9 percent (9%). Dait (2015) reported that a climate scenario with increased 1 °C can result to a decrease in gross production value in agriculture by 19.21. This climate projection is not a farfetched reality. PAGASA (2018) has already noted an increase in temperature by 0.6 °C based on a long-term database on weather in the country and is expected to continue to increase by 2030, 2040, and 2050 projections using compounded climate scenarios. Gross rice production in the Philippines (January–March) is about 4.6 MT in 2018 (PSA 2018). Implication of the results of the crop simulation model by Dait would be an estimated reduction of about 1 MT of rice production for first quarter. This calculation is done via DSSAT which considers the basic needs of crop physiological processes—soils, water, temperature, and genetic coefficient. Climate change is also expected to influence the emergence and intensity of occurrences of pests and diseases and the frequency and intensity of drought events. In general, the Philippine agriculture losses to climatic changes in production can be more than what can be expected. Agriculture uses about 80 percent (80%) of surface water for irrigation and occurrences of droughts could be devastating.

At the global scale, in the 2015 Assessment Report of IPCC, scientists recommend to leaders of the world to go for no less than 1.5 °C increase in global temperature. This target requires a call to climate action that will push for drastic reduction of emissions of countries, especially the industrialized countries, otherwise referred to as the G7. This has implications on the patterns of industrialization, use of fossil fuel, and transformation to clean energy. However, observations have shown that transformation of global economies to reduce GHG has not been in place to realize the goal of not going beyond 1.5 °C target. This is expected to create massive impacts to agriculture in developing countries like the Philippines, who do not have the means to undertake strategic climate adaptations actions. For changed patterns of precipitation, adverse impacts are expected. Modeling study (Dait 2015) has shown that while gross production value in agriculture is expected to increase if number of rainy days increase, gross production value can decrease by 0.24 for every 1 mm increase in precipitation.

More comprehensive study was made by Rosegrant et al. (2016) using four global climate models (GCM) and employing biophysical models to estimate the impacts of climate change and crop management regimes on crop yields such as DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer developed in 2003) and WaNulCAS (Water, Nutrients, Soils). Results of the biophysical models were then inputted to macroeconomic models like IMPACT developed by IFRI to project food supply, demand, prices, impact of water supply, and climate change. Results of their study showed that a decrease in yields by an average of 1.7 percent (1.7%) across four GCMs can be expected in 2050 compared with baseline levels. Rosegrant et al. (2016) also noted that cereal production is expected to fall by 2050 compared with baseline levels. Corn, for example, is projected to decline by 13 percent (13%) while rice, 3.2 percent (3.2%). Because corn is mainly used for animal feeds, livestock production is likewise expected to be adversely affected. Declining cereal production coupled with increasing demand by increasing population (current annual growth rate at 1.7%, base population at 104M in 2015), agricultural commodity prices are expected to skyrocket, making the already poor people even more marginalized. Results of Rosegrant studies are alarming since increase in consumer prices by 2050 can increase by 24 percent (24%) (cereals) and fruits and vegetables by 13 percent (13%). Table from Rosegrant study shows the expected increase in consumer prices in 2030 and 2050 based on averages of the 4 GCMs runs.

The projected increase in consumer prices, especially cereals, will adversely impact prices of other food products like pork, beef, and chicken—major protein source of the country. Corn is the major ingredient of livestock feeds. Prices of fruits and vegetables are going to increase significantly after cereals. While these increase in consumer prices seem positive for agriculture sector, this condition will not ensure that the economic condition of the farmers will improve.

For perennials, preliminary observations show that prolonged dry season resulted to observed increase in the yield of lanzones, mangoes, and rambutan. Studies to ascertain responses of major fruit crops to increase in temperature, changes in weather patterns, uncertain onset of rainy reasons, and prolonged dry and wet seasons are wanting and need to be examined closer to come up with better management strategies. For coconuts, impacts are not immediate but there is decreased production after extended period of drought which can result in water stress during the stage of flowering and filling of the nuts (Comiso et al. 2014).

Based on all future climate scenarios, the condition of agriculture sector, particularly the smallholder farmers, would be worse (Sebastian et al. 2019). Agriculture as a livelihood and economic has become highly vulnerable and risky, with the physiological impacts on crops, pests and diseases, extreme events, and changes in the weather patterns. With increasing demand of increasing population, the future of the country can be grim.

2.2 Pest and Diseases Outbreaks

Outbreak of pests and diseases has also been projected to be more frequent because of climate changes. The devastation of coconut farms in different parts of the country due to coconut scale insect (CSI) or cocolisap (2010–2014) that nearly wiped out standing coconut palms has been partly attributed to prolonged dry season of 2010. In CALABARZON alone, CSI has affected 1.2 million coconut palms. The impact of infestation was considered monumental as 25 million Filipinos rely upon the industry, 3.5 million of whom are coconut farmers. In addition, 27 percent (27%) of the country’s agricultural land are planted to coconut while 68 out of 79 provinces in the country grow coconuts (PCA 2010 cf. Villareal 2014).

Commonly known as cocolisap, this coconut scale insect or CSI has been identified as an introduced species (Aspidiotus rigidus) and not the native A. destructor as originally identified. Villareal noted that the spread can be attributed to two factors: changing wind patterns due to climate change and/or unintentional introduction of the pest through human economic activities (Villareal 2014). Its infestation was observed to spread to larger areas in the country due to temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, and planting density.

While science continues to understand the nature of cocolisap and look for solutions, gradual reduction of cocolisap infestation was observed after typhoon Glenda (international name: Rammasun), a Category 5 super typhoon with a highest wind speed of 259. It was deduced that the gradual disappearance of the cocolisap population is due to the combined effect of varied human interventions that include both organic and inorganic measures of pest management and the super typhoon Glenda.

Notable in the discussion of climate change and agriculture is the occurrence of pest and disease infestations. Infestation of farms and plantations in the country can reach emergency proportion as in the case of cocolisap that nearly destroyed the coconut industry. The event was attributed to introduction of new species (A. rigidus) to the Philippines and the prolonged dry season (Villareal 2014) which provided the new species favorable condition for reproduction. The other destructive disease linked to climate change is Fusarium wilt on banana. Modeling study which compared the current and future scenarios showed that the 21 percent (21%) susceptible areas to Fusarium under baseline climate condition in the Philippines is expected to increase to 27 percent (27%), which cover 91.2 percent (91.2%) and 28.5 percent (28.5%) of the country’s highly and moderately suitable areas for banana, respectively (Salvacion et al. 2019). This is equivalent to approximately 67 percent (67%) of the country’s total harvested area for banana.

First spotted in June 2019 in Isabela, corn farmers are now observing and concerned about a new pest emerging known as fall army worm or FAW (Spodoptera frugiperda). This has infected about 66 municipalities and 17 cities in the Philippines, as of October 2019 (DA Report). While this has been believed to be introduced inadvertently through economic trades and regular trade routes, the threat of the pest to proliferate in the country’s food-growing areas is not farfetched given the country’s favorable temperature. Early description of FAW in the US corn-growing areas (Sparks 1979) noted that the masses that contain few to hundreds of its eggs can hatch in 2 to 4 days with mean temperature between 70 and 80 °F and complete life cycle can take an estimated 4 weeks during the warm months of June to August. He also noted that life cycle can take 80–90 days in colder temperature. With the Philippines’ more consistent warm weather and prolonged dry season due to changes in climate patterns, FAW outbreak of disastrous proportion is expected. As early as October 2019, Department of Agriculture has alerted corn farmers on the need for early detection and reporting of occurrence of FAW in the corn-growing areas in the country.

3 What Can Be Done: Toward Risk-Based Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Agriculture

The impact of climate change on agriculture and the Filipino farmers in general is devastating and no action at this juncture is not a viable option. Rosegrant et al. (2016) highlighted the need for the country to develop adaptation and growth strategies to ensure agricultural production and “to underpin broader economic growth and structural transformation”. Because of the high vulnerability and risks faced by the agriculture sector to climatic impacts, the need to approach the future can be done through a risk-based adaptation planning and meet the country’s goals for food security, inclusive growth, and poverty reduction. Risk-based adaptation planning is rooted in the concept that impacts of climate change are widespread and responses to the risks should be systematically organized.

Agriculture in developing countries like the Philippines is highly vulnerable to climate variabilities and extreme events. Irrigation water, Emergence and occurrence of pests, uncertain weather conditions, and extreme weather events are climate risks confronted by the sector, and these risks are increasing. Vulnerability and risks in crop production vary from crop to crop and depending on location. Lansigan (2014) noted that science-based assessments of vulnerability and risks are imperative and are sound basis for developing risk transfer mechanisms suitable in the Philippine context. This is one strategy that is unfolding which is aimed to contribute to climate resilience of the country’s agriculture sector. Risk transfer involves the transference of risk or burden of financial loss to another party. The significance of expansion of coverage of crop insurance cannot be underestimated in this respect. Consensus among policy and resource managers at the national level is already attained but efforts to put this in place remain to be seen. As a risk management strategy, crop insurance instruments have the potential to reduce climate change impacts for farmers. However, crop insurance products in the country have not reached far enough to make a difference. Studies showed that the low coverage of crop insurance in the Philippines is due to the premium cost and “apparent subjectivity and bias” in the damage assessment (Lansigan 2014).

With the advent of increasing risks due to climate variability and extreme events, the development of weather indexed-based insurance products is gradually taking shape. It has been proposed to address the weaknesses of the conventional crop insurance products—its subjectivity and bias in risk assessment. Lansigan in 2014 forwarded an approach to determine the threshold level or index critical in rice production at different phases of growth. In 2018, Lansigan and his team in Project SARAI (Smarter Approaches to Reinvigorate Agriculture as an Industry), a research project funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), started to generate through crop simulation modeling, on-site-specific climate risk profiles of various locations that can be used by the Philippine Crop Insurance Company (PCIC) to improve the current crop insurance products. These new products are hope to address the lack of appropriate threshold levels for quick and objective damage assessments. The paucity of automatic weather stations to gauge or base the threshold level in the country is still something we need to struggle with. Along this concern, a silver lining is being expected as the Philippine weather agencies known as PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration) and DOST have already began to pursue modernizing weather monitoring. One of the constraints in the implementation of WIBI is in making the protocol more efficient. Smooth cooperation between agencies is pre-requisite for cutting the bureaucratic process of government-sponsored crop insurance program.

3.1 Integrated Early Warning System

Increased frequency of extreme events and climate variability in the country has been observed to result in catastrophic loss of lives, and for the agriculture sector, devastation of farms and plantations. These climate change impacts vary in scale and location—specificity of events and impacts is expected. Adaptive capacity of the sector to cope also varies by location and by commodity. Agrometeorological early warnings then must be commodity and place specific and must be based on local conditions relevant to agricultural activities (Yin 2014). Weather information from reputable sources must be utilized to inform farming communities of the best planting dates for different crops, or when is the best time to fertilize, or when to conduct pest management and harvest. Weather forecast and outlooks can be used to plan the activities of farmers and reduce potential damage of not knowing amount of rainfall to expect in during the crop-growing season.

The integrated early warning system designed for agriculture can be adapted from the DRR framework of the WMO. The framework is anchored on understanding the vulnerability and risks faced by agriculture sector—rainfall, temperature and humidity and the implications of these weather attributes to the different phases of growth of crops. Continuous monitoring and processing of both real-time and historical weather data can generate forecasts and outlooks that are needed by farmers in advance. In the Philippines, a classic example of how farmers use climate information in farming activities is the Climate Field School of the Municipality of Dumangas in Iloilo City. It is managed and operated by the LGU Agriculture Office, in partnership with PAGASA. The weather data is sent automatically to PAGASA for processing and relay back to the LGU weatherman and disseminated to the farmers in the dialect, with analysis relevant to major farming activities. Currently, Project SARAi is working with the municipality to advance the combined use of remote sensing and automatic weather stations to generate rainfall and drought outlook in 5–6 months. This is sufficient information to inform the farmers of the best dates and crops and varieties to plant to reduce risks to flood and drought or optimize the potential availability of moisture in soils during the duration of crop growth. This protocol is now being set up in some selected areas in the country with assistance from different agencies—DOST, DA, universities, DILG, and LGUs (Fig. 5.3).

Fig. 5.3

Protocol for early warning system designed for agriculture that can be adopted from the DR Framework of the WMO

3.2 Integrated Crop Monitoring and Forecasting

While space technology has been used traditionally in national defense of large and developed nations, its application in agriculture of developing countries is emerging. For example, India has set up a system using remote sensing and satellites in monitoring 15 major crops through the Mahalonobis National Crop Forecast Center (NCFC) of the Ministry of Agriculture (www.ncfc.gov.in). It uses its own satellites to monitor their major crops and reports to the Ministry of Agriculture. Crop advisories emanating from the center are given to the extension office of the Ministry for dissemination nationwide.

The use of remote sensing and satellites in the Philippines has been gradually gaining grounds, including its utility in agriculture.

For instance, the Philippine Rice Information System or PRISM, the first satellite-based rice monitoring system in the Philippines, is developed by CGIAR researchers at the International Rice Research Institute or IRRI in collaboration with the Philippine Department of Agriculture. In operations since 2014, PRISM collects data from satellites and employs various advanced technologies of crop modeling, cloud computing, and statistics to produce data and maps about rice.

Another system that uses remote sensing and satellites is coming from the Department of Science and Technology or DOST-related efforts known as SARAI or Smarter Approaches to Reinvigorate Agriculture as an Industry. Project SARAI is a research and development program that aims to establish a real-time crop monitoring and forecasting system for crops other than rice. It covers major crops like corn, banana, coconut, coffee, cacao, tomato, soybean, and sugarcane. The system is based on developed crop models and different crop phenologies, ensemble of weather and climate data, real-time weather data via automatic weather stations built in strategic areas, remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS), and field monitoring reports. The knowledge products near real-time crop monitoring information and seasonal crop forecasts. Some examples of this include site-specific crop growth stage, crop health, weather and crop relationships, possible pest and disease infestations, and drought forecasting for agriculture. Mobile applications for pest and disease identification and harvesting advisories were also developed for use by different stakeholders in agriculture such as farmers,  local government executives, traders and entrepreneurs. Examples are—SPIDTech for pest and disease identification, CAPHE for coffee harvesting advisories, BanaTech for banana yield and harvesting estimates, Bantay SARAI for online-based seasonal crop, livestock and poultry monitoring (Espaldon et al. 2018; Cabangbang et al. 2019).

In October 21, 2022, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. issued a directive dated PBBM-2022-086-90 for the nationwide implementation of SARAI as the digital platform of agriculture, to wit “to implement, in coordination with the DOST the SARAI Project nationwide and ensure that areas with no or limited internet connectivity will be updated with the information provided by the project.”

3.3 Traditional Ecological Knowledge in Climate Change Adaptation

The discussion of climate change adaptation is not complete without putting in the centerfold of the discourse the contribution of traditional ecological knowledge. While scientific movement is gradually making impacts on how agriculture concerns due to climate risks are managed at the national level, the local and indigenous ecological knowledge systems are still found in the practice among indigenous people. In 2003, Monsalud et al. recorded that indigenous practices for crops and livestock to reduce the impacts of El Niño are still used in provinces such as Bulacan, Pampanga, Catanduanes, and Camarines Sur. These include the practice of smoking or pausok, use of herbal pesticide, lighting of lamps at night to scare insects, and putting of poison frogs in the field as plant pest controls. In Catanduanes and Camarines Sur, farmers practice the smudging, soapy water spray or water mixed with small pepper juice extract. Documentation of the Philippine indigenous knowledge on climate change adaptations has been replete with wisdom as shown in various studies done at homefront (Coxhead and Rola 1998; Bornales 2004; Monsalud and Montesur 2003; Peras 2005; Ducusin et al. 2019; Nelson et al. 2019; Zamora et al. 2020). These indigenous knowledge systems which are already documented have shown the rich well spring of knowledge that local communities can learn from and can be supported by the agriculture department who is in charge of ensuring that farms and farmers can reduce the damage that climate risks can cause. How these qualitative studies and information can enhance the adaptive capacity of the farming communities, along with advances in technologies of weather and climate information, crop advisories emanating from systems like PRISM and SARAI require that communities be equipped not only with their own knowledge tested through time, but also the use of advancing in science and technology.

4 Conclusion

The projected damage of climate change impacts on agriculture is huge. Estimates of damage costs from modeling studies have reached up to about 145 billion pesos per year until 2050 (Rosegrant et al. 2016). Consumer prices of major food products are expected to increase based on the average of all climate scenarios. Reduction in crop yields, especially corn and other cereals, is expected to result in increase in the prices of animal feeds. Emergence and re-emergence of pests and diseases can be expected. Without doing anything would be similar to riding a speeding train without a brake—it could mean an economy-wide collapse. Global analysts as well as local decision-makers have reached a consensus that we need to implement a concerted effort to avert the impending global and local systems collapse due to climate changes. The urgency for climate action has never been more real than the present.

A changing climate system in the Philippines results in compounding impacts to agriculture and well-being of small-scale farmers in the country.

Based on studies, climate change impacts can possibly result in 10 to 15 percent (10–15%) reduction of potential yield of rice, our staple crop. Climate change impacts also include potential increased damage to crops due to emerging pest and diseases with increasing temperature, prolonged drought, and intense humidity. Crops are also highly vulnerable to flooding which are expected impacts of more intense tropical cyclones. Without systems of precaution and technical support, our farms are left to the intensifying onslaughts of extreme weather events and increasing weather variabilities.

To address the threat of intensifying climate impacts, considered one of the greatest threats to human kind, especially in the developing countries, a national risk-based adaptation planning is called for. While adaptation planning at the national level is imperative, place-based vulnerability and risks due to changing precipitation patterns, increasing temperature, and increasing and/or intensifying extreme climate events coupled with continuous environmental resources degradation need to be examined closely to lay out site-specific adaptation strategies. Based on location-specific vulnerability and risk analysis, appropriate adaptation strategies can now be in place.

Risk transfer mechanism is an integral part of risk-based adaptation planning for agriculture. Although crop insurance has been in the Philippines for many years, low coverage and low acceptance among farmers are still its major implementation concern. The crop insurance sector has also been criticized severely as too bureaucratic, expensive, tedious, and subjective in its damage assessment protocol. With climate change, the need for an improved crop insurance system has become more pronounced. Because agriculture is highly dependent on weather and climate, timing of release of support after climate-related disasters happen in a region. In this concern, crop insurance product weather-based indices are seen to be highly relevant toward making farmers more resilient. Aside from using weather-based indices, the coverage must include not only rice and corn, but other major crops like banana, coconuts, and sugarcane. Subsidy for crop insurance maybe considered at first phase until farmers can fully recover from damages.

Another feature of a national risk-based adaptation planning is the nationwide expansion of application of information technology, space technology, crop modeling, and automatic weather stations in agriculture. The digitalization of agricultural and market information can help in making these accessible to ordinary farmers. Infrastructure support, massive capacity building, and changing mindsets are requisites to implement climate change adaptation strategies. With climate change, collaboration of different institutions like Department of Agriculture, Department of Science and Technology, DILG, DICT, NEDA, State Universities and Colleges (SUCs), CCC, and OCD with resource allocation from the Department of Budget will be an important feature of “bayanihan” if we are to succeed in our target to make agriculture a major prime mover of the country’s economy in the future.

Rice is our major staple, and it has become the icon of food security. It is no wonder that huge attention is given to rice. According to Rosegrant et al. (2016), increasing rice productivity and increasing irrigated rice area may increase the Gross Domestic Product or GDP. Increasing rice productivity entails use of new crop management strategies such as crops and varieties that are flood resistant or drought resilient, depending on the risks of a place. It also entails efficient crop protection strategies. Development of new sources of irrigation water, e.g., more groundwater than surface water, and rehabilitation of watershed as traditional water sources should be part of the adaptation plans—integrated into the comprehensive land use plans of each municipality.

To transform agriculture into an engine of poverty reduction, this requires a multiscale approach of adaptation and a combination of many epistemological forms of knowledge. One emanates from wisdom of local knowledge and experience and the other one comes from the science and technology branch of knowledge production. At this juncture of the Philippine agriculture’s history, it would be wiser to pool the resources coming from many sources.

Strengthening the adaptive capacity and preparedness of our farming communities is imperative to enable us to deal with the impacts of climate change. Scientific knowledge admittedly can be very useful in this regard. It has produced tools and processes that can reduce the risks in farming. This list is getting longer—we have the crop advisories coming out of automatic weather stations located in different parts of the country, crop modeling for crop forecasting, GIS and remote sensing to monitor and forecast potential harvests, and losses in cases of extreme events.

The challenges of climate change and food security are global in scale. It requires the agriculture sector to be adaptive and able to mitigate the effects of changing climate to agricultural production. Risk-based adaptation planning involves making agriculture climate resilient, hence regular vulnerability and risks must be in place so strategies can be made more adaptive. The risk-based adaptation planning generally aims to (1) increase agricultural productivity and income through sustainable agriculture; (2) build an adaptive and resilient agriculture sector; and (3) exploring ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The goal is to identify the most suitable combination of strategies in terms of local climate, physical characteristics, and socio-economic condition because it will be the basis of a successful intervention strategy. Large-scale implementation demands an immense amount of investment and requires the support from various stakeholders from the national down to the farm level where impacts are felt by the households.

The Philippines is not behind any other nations who incorporates climate change adaptation as well as contributing to reduction of GHG emission in their development agenda for 2030 through 2050. Efforts have already been initiated at the central Department of Agriculture with the establishment of climate-resilient communities called AMIA villages, coordinated by the DA System-wide Climate Change Office (SWCC).

On the other hand, the DA Field Operations Office started mainstreaming the use of remote sensing and GIS protocol being advanced by SARAI Enhanced Monitoring System first in Region 4B (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Palawan). In 2019, eight more regions in the country were added as pilot sites for the enhanced system. The system includes setting up a crop monitoring system for major crops such as corn, coffee, cacao, and banana using remote sensing. The end goal is to set up a nationwide crop monitoring system that can make use of the climate information being provided by PAGASA and different agrometeorological stations located all over the country for crop advisories. The system is also expected to deploy nationwide the SARAI-enhanced monitoring system (SEAMS) protocol, including drought assessment and forecasting system, developed under the auspice of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) through the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Forestry Resources Research and Development (PCAARRD). Other technologies in the pipeline of R&D are expected to be mainstreamed as they become available like crop models and pest management tools for major crops (corn, banana, coffee, cacao, tomato, sugarcane, and soybean). The information generated here are useful in generating crop advisories as to: when to plant, what alternative crops to plan, irrigation management, pest management, and damage assessment on larger scales (barangay, municipal, provincial). Capacity building among the agriculture sector is ongoing to ensure that the stakeholders are able to understand and able to use the information to complement their own traditional practices. Adaptation is a process, and monitoring must be undertaken to determine the best measures of living with a new climate.